Fantasy Football Outlook: Jaylen Warren, Nico Collins, Jahmyr Gibbs, Mike Evans (Week 18)

Every week we’ll bring you The Primer, a deep dive into every fantasy-relevant player from every NFL game of the week. You can find the full weekly Primer here. Below we dive into a few notable players ahead of this weekend’s games.

Fantasy Football Outlook

Jaylen Warren: Since Week 9, Warren has averaged 13.9 touches and 82.8 total yards. He’s easily been the team’s best back all season, but Pittsburgh won’t let him take over the backfield. Since Week 9, he has lost the red zone battle to Harris with only 18 opportunities inside the 20-yard line (Harris 32). Warren remains one of the most explosive running backs in the NFL, ranking third in explosive run rate, second in missed tackles forced per attempt, and third in yards after contact per attempt. He could run wild this week for Pittsburgh, especially if Baltimore can jump out to an early lead. Warren would then supplant Harris as the snap leader. Since Week 9, when Pittsburgh has trailed, Warren leads Harris with a 52.2% snap rate (Harris 51.4%) and with a 55.9% snap rate on passing downs (Harris 44.8%). Since Week 12, Baltimore has allowed the 11th-highest explosive run rate, the 10th-highest missed tackles per attempt, and the fourth-highest yards per carry to zone runs (5.14). 52.1% of Warren’s runs have come via zone plays.

Nico Collins: Collins has been a stud this year with four games with at least 23 PPR points. He ranks 16th in receiving yards, 11th in yards after the catch, and 22nd in red zone targets. Since Week 12, Indy has led the NFL in Cover 3 rate (48.4%). Against Cover 3, in the 13 games he has been a full time player, Collins has had a 21.2% target share, a 26.3% air-yard share, 3.45 YPRR, and a 27.3% first-read share. Since Week 12, Indy has allowed the 14th-most PPR points per target and the ninth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Nico Collins is a near lock play.

Jahmyr Gibbs: The last time these two teams met, Gibbs rolled up 19 touches and 100 total yards (two scores). He has been a matchup-proof monster this season. Since Week 12, he has averaged 14.3 touches and 76.7 total yards. Gibbs is one of the best young backs in the NFL, ranking second in explosive run rate, 12th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 13th in yards after contact per attempt. It’s arbitrary, but he’s only 85 yards away from 1,000 rushing yards for the season. Since Week 12, Minnesota’s run defense has also begun to show some cracks, allowing the 13th-highest rushing yards per game and yards after contact per attempt with the second-lowest stuff rate. Since Week 12, Minnesota has allowed the 12th-highest yards per carry to zone runs (since Week 9, 52.7% of Gibbs’ runs have been on zone plays). If Goff fails this week, it’s because Gibbs likely had another outstanding game.

Mike Evans: I faded Evans in the offseason. I was wrong. Flat out wrong. He is the WR8 in fantasy points per game, ranking third in deep targets and 12th in red zone targets. He has the most total touchdowns among receivers while also ranking tenth in receiving yards. Since Week 12, Carolina has had the highest rate of single-high (64.5%). Against single-high, Evans has had a 26% target share, a 43.5% air-yard share, 3.16 YPRR, and a 31.1% first-read share while leading the team with seven end-zone targets. Carolina has been average at defending perimeter wide receivers, ranking 18th in PPR points per target. Evans dunked on this secondary in Week 13 with seven receptions and 162 receiving yards (one score). He could easily do it again this week.