Fantasy Football Outlook: Diontae Johnson, Michael Pittman, Justin Jefferson, Justin Fields (Week 18)

Every week we’ll bring you The Primer, a deep dive into every fantasy-relevant player from every NFL game of the week. You can find the full weekly Primer here. Below we dive into a few notable players ahead of this weekend’s games.

Fantasy Football Outlook

Diontae Johnson: Many will be looking for George Pickens here, but Johnson has been the Steelers’ guy against two-high. Since Week 12, Baltimore has utilized two-high at the seventh-highest rate (56.4%). Since Week 7, against two-high, Johnson has had a 22.3% target share (Pickens 17.2%), a 40.8% air-yard share (Pickens 28.3%), 1.51 YPRR, and a 28.7% first-read share (Pickens 20.4%). The Ravens’ secondary has been stout, but if they are rolling out backups this week also on the defensive side, the teeth of that defense won’t be quite as sharp.

Michael Pittman: Pittman has been a volume hog with at least 11 targets in 60% of the games he played this season. He is ninth in targets, sixth in receptions, 13th in receiving yards, and eighth in yards after the catch. Pittman also ranks ninth in red zone targets. Since Week 12, Houston has utilized Cover 3 or Cover 4 on 60.6% of their defensive snaps. Against Cover 3 and Cover 4, Pittman has a 28.8% target share, a 31.1% air-yard share, 1.99 YPRR, and a 38.4% first-read share. Pittman is also a near-lock play. Since Week 12, Houston has allowed the second-most PPR points per target and the third-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Justin Jefferson: Since Week 15, Jefferson has looked like himself with a 29.4% target share, a 47.9% air-yard share, 2.54 YPRR, and a 36.9% first-read share. Jefferson talked about reaching 1,000 receiving yards, and he can do that this week with 118 receiving yards. Jefferson is one of the best plays of the slate. Detroit has not been able to stop perimeter wide receivers. Since Week 12, they have allowed the highest PPR points per target and the fourth-most receiving yards per game to boundary wide receivers.

Justin Fields: Fields is the QB7 in fantasy points per game this season. He has six games this season with at least 20 fantasy points, and he’s surpassed 24 fantasy points five times. Since Week 4, among 45 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 17th in passer rating, 15th in CPOE, 16th in highly accurate throw rate, and fifth in fantasy points per dropback. Fields is sixth in red zone carries per game, second in rushing yards, and seventh in rushing touchdowns. He should decimate a Packers’ secondary that has been abysmal lately. Since Week 12, they have allowed the seventh-most passing yards per game, the fourth-highest passing yards per game and passing touchdowns, and the second-highest passer rating.