Every week we’ll bring you The Primer, a deep dive into every fantasy-relevant player from every NFL game of the week. You can find the full weekly Primer here. Below we dive into a few notable players ahead of this weekend’s games.
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Fantasy Football Outlook
A.J. Brown: Brown is due to bust out of this slump. Right? Since Week 11, he has only two games with more than 90 receiving yards. He hasn’t posted more than 20 fantasy points in a game since Week 8. Hurts should lean on him this week with DeVonta Smith clearly banged up. Brown ranks sixth in deep targets, and 12th in red zone looks. Since Week 12, New York has had the third-highest rate of single high (62.8%). Against single high, Brown has been dominant with a 37% target share, a 52.2% air-yard share, 3.82 YPRR, and a 46.6% first-read share. Since Week 12, the Giants have allowed the ninth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Kenneth Walker: Walker is an interesting GPP play this week. He is definitely not 100%, but the matchup is amazing, and he might not need a ton of volume to smash as a rusher. Since Week 14, he has averaged 16.1 touches and 74.3 total yards, playing 43-58% of the snaps weekly. Since Week 14, among 42 qualifying backs, Walker has ranked first in missed tackles forced per attempt and 15th in yards after contact per attempt. Despite being less than fully healthy, it hasn’t impacted his ability to break tackles. Since Week 12, Arizona has allowed the second-highest rushing yards per game and explosive run rate and the fifth-highest missed tackles per attempt and yards after contact per attempt.
Dak Prescott: Prescott is the QB4 in fantasy, ranking fourth in passing yards and first in passing touchdowns. Since Week 8, among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks seventh in yards per attempt and CPOE, third in highly accurate throw rate, and fifth in fantasy points per dropback. He should have no issues shredding Washington. Since Week 12, they have allowed the sixth-most passing yards per game, the seventh-highest yards per attempt, and the second-highest passer rating.
De’Von Achane: Last week, Achane was the backfield leader with Raheem Mostert out. Mostert opened this week with a DNP (ankle/knee). He might miss this week’s game as well. Last week, Achane played 48% of the snaps with 18 touches and 137 total yards. Among 65 qualifying backs, he ranks first in explosive run rate, third in missed tackles forced per attempt, and second in yards after contact per attempt. Since Week 12, the Bills’ run defense has returned to the struggle bus, allowing the fourth-highest explosive run rate, the sixth-most rushing touchdowns, and the seventh-highest yards before contact per attempt. Achane should eat.
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