Welcome to the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs, a jam-packed weekend of football for daily fantasy football enthusiasts, NFL sports bettors and those looking ahead to the 2024 best ball drafting season.
In this thrilling and final phase of the real NFL season featuring the final elite eight teams, I’m here to equip you with the latest edition of the 2023-2024 usage report, packed with essential tips for fantasy managers and those looking to get on the wagering/pick action with the official 2023 fantasy football season in the books. Again, we often don’t cite playoff performances when we summarize the 2023 fantasy football season. But it’s doing an injustice to not take more information that these teams/players provide us as we set our sights on having an edge over our opponents in 2024 fantasy football drafts.
Our focus has shifted from traditional buy/sell strategies to a “stock up/stock down” throughout the postseason. Expect direct DFS and PrizePicks advice for those looking for something extra to enhance your viewing experience.
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Now, let’s dive into the Wild Card Weekend Fantasy Football Forecast. 8 teams. 4 games. T.O. said it best. Get your popcorn ready.
Fantasy Football Forecast NFL Divisional Round
Houston Texans
Devin Singletary once again spearheaded the Texans backfield, rushing 13 times for 66 yards and 1 TD (had another big run called back due to holding). He logged 72% of the snaps. Dameon Pierce had 3 carries and played just 13% of the snaps. Singletary’s stranglehold on the RB1 job in Houston has not budged.
John Metchie led all Texans WRs in snaps played at 73%, followed by Nico Collins (70%), Xavier Hutchinson (43%) and Robert Woods (33%) in his first game back from injury. Noah Brown played just 5 snaps (11%) and ran four routes. Metchie finished second with 15 routes run.
Collins led the Texans with 7 targets and routes run, catching 6 balls for 96 yards and 1 TD. But he could have had an even bigger game had he not missed a deep shot from C.J. Stroud in the first half. Logged over 100 air yards with a 32% Target share to boot.
Nobody else saw more than 3 targets (13% Target share) – Metchie/Singletary. Note that Metchie’s 3rd target came with Davis Mills at QB. But both his completions from Stroud went for 10-plus yards (11, 27).
Dalton Schultz played the most tight end snaps, and scored on his lone catch for a 37-yard touchdown. The impending free agent dropped his other target. Brevin Jordan took his one catch 76 yards to the house. Jordan’s a YAC monster who also played 50% of the snaps. Would be leaning toward the LESS THAN on Schultz’s receiving prop this week. Just not involved enough consistently in the offense, and the matchup is tough versus Baltimore.
How’d we get this sweet matchup?
With the Steelers losing to Buffalo, the Texans will face the No.1-seeded Ravens – a rematch of a Week 1 contest from the start of this season.
I like the over on the total at 45.5 in this game, along with more than on C.J. Stroud‘s 245.5 passing prop on Prizepicks this week. Gone OVER in back-to-back games. The Ravens’ first-team defense has allowed 240-plus yards to 3 of the last 4 QBs they have faced. In Stroud’s first game in the NFL, he threw for 242 against the Ravens on the road.
Also leaning toward the MORE THAN on Singletary’s rushing line prop set at 54.5 rushing yards. He’s gone over in 5 of his last 6 games. And the Ravens’ run defense has hardly been a gauntlet. Since Week 6, they have allowed nearly 100 rushing yards per game to RBs at the second-highest yards per carry (4.8). 6 of the last 7 RBs they have faced went over 55 rushing yards.
Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore sat main starters such as Lamar Jackson, Odell Beckham Jr. and Zay Flowers in Week 18. They still used many of their starting RBs, between Gus Edwards and Justice Hill. Hill played the most snaps as the main change-of-pace RB at 54% while commanding 10 targets. Still the preferred pass-catcher out of the backfield.
But these guys playing more snaps in a meaningless game may have also been related to Melvin Gordon‘s constant fumbling.
Rewind to Week 17, Edwards led the rushing attack with 68 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries and 5 red-zone rushes, playing a 54% snap share. Also fumbled. Hill made a significant impact with 48 yards on just three carries, including a long run of 41 yards. Played 35% of the snaps.
Rashod Bateman played fewer than 50% of the snaps. Isiah Likely only played 33% of the snaps.
The last time we saw Bateman play with the normal starters, he low-key led the Ravens with 6 targets, catching four for 54 yards. 27% Target share while leading the team in routes run.
The receiving corps was led by Flowers with 106 yards and a touchdown on three receptions (3 targets). Hill (5 targets) and Likely also contributed to the passing game with touchdowns. Likely only had two receptions on 3 targets, two went for TDs. Second in routes run with a 63% snap share.
Note that before you go gun-hoe on any player props, Mark Andrews has been activated from IR. Probably a long shot he plays this week, but not impossible.
If Andrews doesn’t play, we should see another massive game for Likely. The Texans are allowing the most receiving yards to tight ends this season (65). Take the MORE THAN on Likely’s 43.5 receiving yards prop.
San Francisco 49ers
A reminder that the last time the 49ers played; they rested their key starters. Back in Week 17, Brandon Aiyuk was the top receiver with 114 yards on 7 receptions, including a touchdown. 8 targets. 30% Target share.
Deebo Samuel also found the end zone and contributed both in the receiving and rushing departments. 3 carries for 35 yards/5 catches for 37 yards and 1 TD. 5 red zone targets.
George Kittle was not heavily used, catching just 3 passes for 29 yards on 4 targets.
Brock Purdy has thrown for 250-plus passing yards in all his home games played this season.
The Packers’ defense is horrible versus slot WRs, but much better against perimeter ones. Both Samuel and Aiyuk spend time in the slot, so it’s hard to parse between which will benefit more from the inside matchup.
The Packers bleed big gains to tight ends (second-highest yards per reception allowed) ranking 26th in DVOA against the position.
We saw this offense take on Joe Brady’s defense twice in 2021, with George Kittle being the constant threat that was very productive. He went over 52 yards in both games against this Packers defense.
He has also gone over 51.5 receiving yards in four of his last five games, including 6 of the 49ers’ 7 home games played this season. Might be able to get this number at 48.5 or 47.5 as well.
Again, it is very much a “pick your flavor” when it comes to betting on the “overs” on 49ers players. The over on Christian McCaffrey‘s rushing yardage at 89.5 yards might be the obvious/safest wager to make. Gone over in 6 of his last 8 games played. In one game he didn’t finish because of an injury. The Packers can easily be run on, and I’d expect a full workload for CMC off two weeks of rest.
Green Bay Packers
The Packers annihilated the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday, even though Dallas scored a few TDs in the fourth quarter to make the loss appear less bad. Jordan Love completed 16 of 21 passes (21 dropbacks) for 3 TDs and 272 passing yards (13.0 yards per attempt).
Aaron Jones continued his absolute dominance against the Cowboys, scoring 3 TDs on 21 carries (5 red-zone touches) for 118 rushing yards. He also had one catch for 13 yards on 62% of the snaps. No A.J. Dillon in this contest so Emmanuel Wilson operated as the RB2. He had 3 carries before the fourth quarter with Dallas already up 41-16. Although, they liked using him in the red zone, with 5 carries inside the 20.
All of Patrick Taylor‘s usage came in the second half of the fourth quarter.
Romeo Doubs was open on seemingly every pass route. Targeted 6 times – twice in the red zone – catching all six for 151 yards and 1 TD. 28% Target share. Led team in WR snaps. He was getting favorable looks.
Luke Musgrave scored on a broken 38-TD score (3 targets), while Dontayvion Wicks scored in the red zone again on one of his 2 targets. Wicks was 2nd in snaps.
Note that Tucker Kraft also had 3 targets and played much more than Musgrave (80% versus 27%). He also finished second in the team in routes run (66%). Both TEs were targeted once in the red zone.
Christian Watson played but was on a snap count. Just one catch for 9 yards on 1 target. 41% snap share. Bo Melton played 39% of the snaps.
Jayden Reed was not needed, going 0-for-3 on his targets. Third in snaps from the slot (46%) and just 11 routes overall with the Packers winning with efficiency, not volume, in their passing attack.
Expect him to bounce big in a big way as the Packers’ best WR. Note that they allowed the 5th-most catches to WRs this season. Reed is the quick-read slot option for Jordan Love, who should look to his rookie frequently in this spot.
With the win, the Packers will head to SF to take on the 49ers in the Divisional Round of the postseason. They are 10-point underdogs in what Vegas thinks will be a shootout given the 50.5-point total.
Would expect another high-octane and volume passing effort from Love.
The 49ers have allowed the 3rd-most completions this season to QBs. The 4 of the last 5 QBs the 49ers have faced have completed 22-plus passes. 8 of 11 have hit the over on their completions prop.
Dallas’ defense has been elite versus slot WRs, hence, Reed’s struggles last week. They also rank 1st among the fewest completions allowed on defense.
You are going to see more volume across the board for all the Packers receivers so buy the dip on any suppressed receiving numbers you can find.
Early Prizepicks and Underdog lines I found are Love OVER 248.5 passing yards and/or 22.5 completions and Reed OVER 41.5 receiving yards and/or 3.5 receptions. Before last week, Reed had gone for at least 4 receptions in eight straight games.
Love has gone for 255-plus yards in 8 of his last 10 games played (80%). Reed has gone over in 3 of his last 4.
Also would opt for the LESS THAN on Luke Musgrave‘s 24.5 receiving yards prop. The 49ers rank 4th in DVOA against tight ends. Still, they have allowed the 8th-most receiving yards to tight ends since Week 10. Therefore I’ll take the MORE than on Kraft’s 23.5 receiving yards prop given he is the starting tight end in the offense.
Detroit Lions
The Detroit Lions won a playoff game for the first time since 1991. YLTSI. As a holder of an off-season Lions Super Bowl ticket, I am excited to see how this ride turns out.
The Lions were led on the ground by David Montgomery, who rushed 14 times for 57 yards and 1 TD – one of 5 red-zone carries – followed by Jahmyr Gibbs‘ 8 carries and 25 rushing yards with another rushing TD.
Gibbs was the leading receiver, catching all four of his targets for 43 yards. Monty had 1 target while playing 54% of the snaps.
The rookie only played 34% of the snaps.
Given that Gibbs has traditionally played more snaps than Montgomery (while the touches have remained pretty split), I’d foresee Gibbs seeing a larger role in the next round of the playoffs.
The Sun God continues to BURN BRIGHT. Over 100 yards (110) catching 7 balls on 9 targets (34% Target share). Amon-Ra St. Brown continues to be on an absolute heater, posting bonkers numbers.
He’s gone for 95 or more receiving yards in 7 of his 8 games played at home this season. No fewer than 77 receiving yards in any home game this season. He also has 90-plus receiving yards in 4 straight games.
Easy bet? Over on Amon-Ra St. Brown‘s 88.5 receiving yards prop this week on Prizepicks. The Buccaneers are 8th in yards per game allowed to WRs since Week 9. Amon-Ra went for 124 yards when these teams played earlier this season.
Josh Reynolds also had a “revenge game” boost. 5 catches for 80 yards on 7 targets (27% Target share). Played well ahead of Jameson Williams coming off his injury while tying the Sun God in routes run. Williams was an utter failure yet again, catching just 2 balls for 19 yards (2 targets). Only ran three fewer routes than the other two WRs. I’d be wary of trusting Reynolds in back-to-back weeks even in a plus-matchup. Would likely go back to the MORE THAN on Jamo at a suppressed number (35.5 receiving yards).
Sam LaPorta scored, but only caught 3 passes on 3 targets (twice in the red zone). Still played 80% of the snaps.
The Lions will host another playoff game in the Divisional Round against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Given the pass-funnel nature of their defense, lock-and-load the MORE THAN on Jared Goff‘s passing yards prop at 271.5 passing yards. He has 270-plus yards in four of his last 5 games. At home, he has gone over in four of his last 5 games at Ford Field aka the Coors Field of the NFL.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Baker Mayfield cooked the Eagles like a Thanksgiving Turkey in the first round of the NFL playoffs. 337 passing yards and 3 TDs.
Cade Otton had multiple drops and was still the team’s leading receiver in the plus matchup. Otton caught 8 balls for 89 yards on 11 targets (31% Target share). Offensive coordinator Dave Canales knew he could attack the Eagle secondary with his tight end over the middle of the field, so he constantly went back to it.
Mike Evans was second with 7 targets (20% Target share) but again was plagued with more incompletions (drops) on several throws from Mayfield. Finished with just 48 yards on 3 catches. Another massive air yards game for Evans (148) to no avail. Eventually, the positive regression is going to kick in. Have to imagine a horrible Lions secondary is the BOOM spot for Evans. Air yards are coming.
Chris Godwin caught 4 balls for 45 yards on 5 targets with a TD score (14% Target share).
In the previous DET-TB matchup, Godwin led the team in receiving, with 6 receptions for 77 yards (7 targets, 19% Target share). Evans (10 targets, 27%, 127 air yards) and Trey Palmer (7 targets) also contributed with receptions, although they couldn’t find the end zone or haul in any worthwhile production. Palmer led the team with 154 air yards (35%) and played a 66% snap share.
The ancillary pieces for Tampa Bay stepped up in the Wild Card Round.
Both David Moore (2-66-1) and Trey Palmer (1-56-1) scored on plays of 40-plus yards.
Rachaad White also tallied 18 carries for 72 yards while seeing 3 targets.
The Lions have allowed an absurd number of passing yards over their last four games. Nearly 380 passing yards per game. The Lions have allowed the most passing yards to QBs over the last 6 weeks. They also rank LAST in yards to WRs in their last six games, allowing 228 yards per game to opposing wideouts. Overs on Mike Evans and Chris Godwin in the Divisional round?
You bet. Evans MORE than 62.5 receiving yards and Godwin MORE than 60.5 receiving yards. Double dip.
Top it off with the MORE THAN on Mayfield’s 247.5 passing yards prop this week. He has gone over this number in four of his last five games.
Buffalo Bills
The Bills defeated the Steelers on Sunday, giving them the Chiefs at home in the Divisional round of the postseason.
In their Wild Card win, James Cook led the backfield with 79 rushing yards on 18 carries, with Ty Johnson chipping in 26 yards on 8 carries (2 targets and 3 carries inside the 20-yard line). Cook also caught all four of his passes for a total of 22 touches on a 61% snap rate while rushing twice in the red zone. Cook had a massive game as a receiver the last time he played KC, catching 5 balls for 83 yards and 1 TD.
Josh Allen also rushed 8 times for 52 yards and 1 TD.
Stefon Diggs was the target leader (9, 30%), catching 7 balls for just 52 yards and zero TDs. No Gabe Davis, so we got more action from other Bills secondary pass-catchers.
Dalton Kincaid caught 3 balls for 59 yards on 6 targets (20% Target share) with a TD – 55% snap share, the same as last week. Saw more downfield looks, with a 44% air yards share (85).
Dawson Knox scored as well (2 targets).
Khalil Shakir broke multiple tackles to score a TD and was super-efficient again catching all 3 of his targets for 31 yards. Played 67% of the snaps.
Trent Sherfield operated as the No. 3 WR, with a 63% snap share.
Buffalo will host the Chiefs’ fierce defense at home in the Divisional Round.
Kansas City Chiefs
Isiah Pacheco was heavily involved in the Chiefs’ win over the Dolphins. He rushed 24 times in the sub-zero temperatures for 89 yards and 1 TD (9 red-zone carries) while playing 70% of the snaps. Clyde Edwards-Helaire had 7 carries for 21 yards, while Patrick Mahomes also rushed for 41 yards on 2 carries.
Rookie Rashee Rice was the target leader, commanding 12 looks (35% Target share, 2 red-zone targets) and catching 8 for 130 yards and 1 TD. Had another TD called back due to an illegal block.
Travis Kelce‘s final stat output was solid – 7-71 on 10 targets (29% Target share) – but he was plagued with drops that could have resulted in a much bigger game.
No other KC player had more than 3 targets (Mecole Hardman). Hardman had 1 catch for 3 yards. But he also earned 59 air yards (21%) after being used as a frequent downfield target. He saw three downfield targets.
Hardman only played 34% of the snaps. 4th among all WRs. Justin Watson ranked second (64%), followed by Marquez Valdes-Scantling (41%). Hardman did run more routes than MVS.
They will head to Buffalo in the next round of the postseason. The Bills already defeated the Chiefs in KC earlier this season.
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