The easiest way to kick off any way-too-early 2024 fantasy football rankings is to take a look back at what happened the year before. What worked, what didn’t work – but most importantly, addressing the “WHY” behind the successes and failures and using that as a driving force to make smart draft decisions next season.
That’s how I’ll start the breakdown of the quarterbacks for early 2024 fantasy football rankings as we look ahead to the 2024 best ball season. Because with best ball, it’s never too early to start drafting. Here is a complete look at my Early 2024 Fantasy Football Quarterback Rankings, Tiers & Notes. Below we dive into a few notable names.
Early 2024 Fantasy Football Quarterback Rankings, Tiers & Notes
Strategy
My 2024 quarterback draft strategy follows a pseudo-late-round QB approach. It’s the same as last season, which was why I was overexposed to Lamar Jackson and underweight on Patrick Mahomes in 2023.
I want an elite fantasy quarterback at the best price. That helps me capture a ton of upside while also limiting bust potential with my selections. And when it comes to identifying QBs with elite ceilings you can quantify it by aiming for QBs that have shown the capability of scoring 20-plus fantasy points per game.
As you’ll see in the rankings, the guys at the top are consistently averaging north of the 20-point average threshold. And they all have a ton of value added due to their abilities as rushers. Even in 2024, the mobile QBs reign supreme.
Other things to keep in mind, beware of TD regression. In 2022, five of the six highest-drafted QB busts were the passing TD leaders from the previous year. If you just copy-paste the TD passing leaders from 2022 – Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Geno Smith, Kirk Cousins, Jared Goff, Aaron Rodgers, Justin Herbert – five of the eight were busts in 2023.
Also, new situations, coaches, receivers, etc., increase the chance that a player busts. The uncertainty is often viewed as untapped potential (which can be true), but the risk heightens substantially when it is already baked into an inflated ADP. Something I didn’t look enough into was the pairing between a team’s OC/HC and the QB. Is the pairing primed for sustained success? Or is the team just throwing something at the wall, hoping it sticks?
The other major theme with a lot of these QB busts is injuries. Whether it be to the quarterback or their supporting cast (pass-catchers and OL). Predicting injuries is easier said than done. But if you want to avoid drafting QB busts, it needs to be part of your drafting equation. 2023 was bad for QB injuries, but by the QBs nobody thought would be injured. The injury QBs to “fear” were Tua Tagovailoa and Lamar Jackson. They played the entire season. Matthew Stafford only missed one game. When it comes to injuries, I think we “think” more than we know. So instead of following the herd, be advantageous and embrace the injury discount for players coming off injuries. Note that this is different than players who get hurt during the preseason/training camp. A la, Joe Burrow.
2024 Fantasy Football Quarterback Rankings
2024 Fantasy Football Quarterback Notes
3. Jalen Hurts PHI
Biggest question marks among the QBs in the S Tier. Will the rushing TDs come down? That’s the big question mark surrounding Hurts. Whether the “tush push” gets removed entirely, or defenses devise a better plan to stop this offseason. But no debate Hurts has the best offensive personnel among A.J. Brown, Dallas Goedert and DeVonta Smith among my highest-ranked QBs.
5. Justin Fields CHI
Nearly 22 points per game from Week 4 onward. Similar upside to the elite, but question marks with a potential new team create some hesitance. Also, the passing is not nearly good enough compared to the S Tier QBs.
It’s the same old song and dance with Fields. He plays horribly for a few games but turns things on when he utilizes his rushing. He’s not the perfect QB for most franchises, but he needs to be ranked in a certain tier with his rushing that doesn’t project to go away. If and when he can take that passing game leap.
9. Dak Prescott DAL
Is 2023 probably the best we will see from him? It’s possible. Although according to expected fantasy points, he still left A LOT on the table. 1st in expected points per game. 4th in points per game overall. Prescott was a QB I was vehemently “fading” last season, and I was flat-out wrong. But he’s done this act before. In 2021, Prescott averaged 21.1 points per game. 4,700 yards and 38 TDs. In 2022, Prescott was horrible and was barely a fantasy QB1. QB13 in points per game. But then he bounced back BIG in 2023: 21.3 points per game in 2023. 4,922 yards and 39 TDs. With his recent performance at the top of fantasy drafters’ minds, Prescott is going to be drafted much higher than I am willing to pay. Essentially, I look at Prescott’s 2023 as the perfect storm. The defense underwhelmed versus expectation and Prescott greatly benefitted from Tony Pollard‘s inability to score rushing TDs. Can be a fantasy QB1 again? Sure. But for him to be top again, I am very skeptical. Betting on Mike McCarthy doing the right thing is something that doesn’t work in my opinion in the long run.
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