Fantasy baseball leagues that use an OBP (on-base percentage) category rather than batting average (AVG) are increasing in popularity every year. Even the most casual baseball fans are beginning to understand how AVG is on factors outside of a batter’s control.
If you are new to OBP leagues, I will get you caught up faster than Bud Selig swept the steroids scandal under the rug. If you are experienced with OBP leagues, then stick around, as I might teach you something. Let’s get started.
2024 OBP Leagues Primer
Difference between OBP and Batting Average
An easy, first-thought statistic for OBP leagues would be OBP vs AVG, and to target players that had the largest difference between the two. In my opinion, this is potentially flawed but no doubt interesting and relevant.
Draft Relevant Top 4:
- Kyle Schwarber (OF – PHI): .146
- Aaron Judge (OF – NYY): .139
- Ryan Noda (1B,OF – OAK): .135
- Juan Soto (OF – NYY): .135
Draft Relevant Bottom 4:
- Mauricio Dubon (2B,SS,OF – HOU): .031
- Bo Bichette (SS – TOR): .033
- Salvador Perez (1B,C – KC): .037
- Luis Arraez (1B,2B – MIA): .039
Out-of-Zone Swing Percentage
Now, we’re starting to get into what I like. How often does a batter swing at a pitch outside of the strike zone? The following guys will go through real cold streaks that could sink your overall OBP for a week or two.
- Salvador Perez (C – KC): 47%
- Javier Baez (SS – DET): 44%
- Nick Castellanos (OF – PHI): 41%
- Luis Robert Jr. (OF – CWS): 40.5%
For all you kids out there chasing a dream of playing in the majors… you read that right. They all swing at more than 40% of pitches outside of the strike zone, and each has made an All-Star game in their careers. Never give up, you can make it to the show too.
Now, for the inverse, these players swing at the least amount of pitches outside of the strike zone:
- Edouard Julien (2B – MIN): 14.3%
- Mookie Betts (2B,SS,OF – LAD): 16.6%
- Juan Soto (OF – NYY): 16.6%
- Geraldo Perdomo (2B,3B,SS – ARI): 17.1%
OBP related to Exit Velocity
This is a stat I created and have used over the years to predict breakout hitters to pretty decent success. For those unaware, Exit Velocity is the speed at which the baseball leaves the bat when contacted. I’ve always made a connection between OBP and Exit Velocity; a strike will get crushed but the same hitter will happily take a walk as well.
Top 10
- Aaron Judge (OF – NYY)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. (OF – ATL)
- Shohei Ohtani (DH,P – LAD)
- Matt Olson (1B – ATL)
- Yandy Diaz (1B,3B – TB)
- Matt Chapman (3B – FA)
- Yordan Alvarez (OF – HOU)
- Corey Seager (SS – TEX)
- Juan Soto (OF – NYY)
- Giancarlo Stanton (OF – NYY)
Bottom 5
- Esteury Ruiz (OF – OAK)
- Whit Merrifield (2B,OF – FA)
- Andres Gimenez (2B,SS – CLE)
- Paul DeJong (SS – CWS)
- Geraldo Perdomo (2B,3B,SS – ARI)
wOBA
When reading about advanced stats that can positively predict outcomes (you would be shocked at the mainstream stats that show almost no correlation), wOBA always stands out.
Basically, it is a weighted OBA (MLB.com: Weighted On-Base Average), but the quality of an at-bat is taken into account. I am not an actuary, therefore it is difficult for me to explain.
The top-nine players might as well be in order of MVP odds on sportsbooks.
Top
- Aaron Judge (OF – NYY)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. (OF – ATL)
- Yordan Alvarez (OF/DH – HOU)
- Shohei Ohtani (DH/P – LAD)
- Corey Seager (SS – TEX)
- Freddie Freeman (1B – LAD)
- Juan Soto (OF – NYY)
- Mookie Betts (OF – LAD)
- Bryce Harper (1B,OF – PHI)
Bottom
The most shocking thing about this list to me personally is the name Brenton. I always thought the name Brent was a standalone name. Has every Brent that I’ve ever known had the real name of Brenton? I legit never knew that.
Other than that, it looks like the first round of drafts.
I could drop a few more stats that might help, but, like Josh Collmenter told his manager after his fastball topped out at 87 mph, that’s about all I got today.
Be sure to stay tuned for more fantasy baseball tips as we get closer to draft season.
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