With Spring Training and fantasy drafts just around the corner, it’s a good time to look back at 2023 to target potential bounce-back candidates. One way to do this is to identify hitters who suffered through an unusually brutal slump (or slumps) and pitchers whose final ERA was marred by a handful of bad outings.
Here are all 10 players who fit this profile and could prove to be bargains in 2024 fantasy drafts. Below we dive into a few notable names.
Players Better Than Their Slumps (2024 Fantasy Baseball)
Fellow shortstop Carlos Correa also struggled in 2023. After a stellar 2022, his average dropped to .230 from .291 despite a similar walk and strikeout rate. A career-low .272 BABIP seems partly to blame, as was a rough stretch from April 15 to May 9. Correa hit only .155 over 84 at-bats during this period, which dropped his average from .250 to .185. He recovered somewhat but never really got it going last season. Injuries to his back, heel, and foot likely contributed; thus, a bounce-back season seems likely if he’s healthy this year. The two-time All-Star is barely being drafted at this point of the offseason and could provide fantasy value with little risk.
Strider is trending to be the top pitcher off the board in drafts and finished 2023 with a VBR of 3 at his position, thanks to an insane K%, 20 wins and a solid WHIP of 1.09. Thus, it’s hard to imagine him being much better in 2024, outside of his 3.86 ERA, which was driven by three bad starts:
- June 8: Eight earned runs over 4 innings (18.00 ERA)
- August 7: Six earned runs over 2 and 2/3innings (20.25 ERA)
- September 6: Six earned runs over 2 and 2/3 innings (20.25 ERA)
These three starts probably cost Strider the Cy Young award, as his ERA was the only blemish on his stat line, and it was 3.04 outside of these outings. His 2.85 FIP and 3.09 xERA provide further evidence that his 2023 ERA was an anomaly. If you still aren’t comfortable drafting him early this season, one of your league mates will surely be grateful.
After breaking out in 2022, Cease took a step back this past season. His K% remained high, but his ERA climbed to 4.58, his WHIP to 1.42, and he only won seven games as the wheels came off the White Sox. Cease has always had control issues, but this past year his BABIP was a league-high .330, and his strand rate dropped to 69.4%. Even so, if we take out two particularly dreadful starts, Cease’s ERA dips below 4.00, and his season doesn’t look so awful:
- August 2: Seven earned runs over 1 and 2/2 innings (37.80 ERA)
- August 25: Eight earned runs over 4 and 1/3 innings (16.62 ERA)
Cease also had two bad outings in late April and early May in which he surrendered 13 runs over nine innings. If we eliminate those two as well, his ERA drops to 3.44. Every pitcher has a few bad outings, but when you give up six or more runs four times in a season, your ERA will show it. Cease’s FIP was only 3.72 last year, and his xERA was 4.07, so there are signs he can turn it around. Fantasy managers drafting early still believe in him, as his ADP currently sits at SP20.
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