Fantasy Baseball Draft Targets: Fernando Tatis Jr., Pete Alonso, Willy Adames, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

With Spring Training and fantasy drafts just around the corner, it’s a good time to look back at 2023 to target potential bounce-back candidates. One way to do this is to identify hitters who suffered through an unusually brutal slump (or slumps) and pitchers whose final ERA was marred by a handful of bad outings.

Here are all 10 players who fit this profile and could prove to be bargains in 2024 fantasy drafts. Below we dive into a few notable names.

Players Better Than Their Slumps (2024 Fantasy Baseball)

Pete Alonso (1B/DH – NYM)

Alonso got off to a strong start in 2023 and, though he cooled in May, he still hit an acceptable .231 with 22 HRs and 49 RBI before his June 7 left wrist injury. Though Alonso’s wrist wasn’t broken, he did a short IL stint before returning on June 18.

Perhaps he returned too soon as Alonso struggled mightily over the next month. From June 18 through July 19, the “Polar Bear” hit only .132 with four dingers and 13 RBI. Alonso finished 2023 with 46 HRs, 118 RBI, and an unsightly .217 average. Outside his 91 at-bat slump, he slugged 42 home runs with 105 RBI and a .233 BA. Alonso is currently ranked as a third-round pick who could provide first-round value.

Fernando Tatis Jr. (OF/SS – SD)

Tatis produced solid numbers in his post-injury, post-suspension campaign in 2023. He slugged 25 HRs, swiped 29 bags and drove in 78 with a mediocre .257 average. Though his power was down, the average could bounce back as he struck out less and walked more than in any other season. His .282 xBA seems like a better barometer of where his average could be heading in 2024, which coincidentally aligns with what his 2023 average would have been outside of three short but brutal stretches:

May 21 – May 31: four hits in 36 at-bats (.111 average)
August 17 – August 23: two hits in 22 at-bats (.091)
September 2 – September 11: five hits in 32 at-bats (.156)

With a preseason ADP of 6, Tatis may not prove a draft day bargain. However, if he slips into the late first or early second round, be ready to pounce.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B/DH – TOR)

Vlad began 2023 on fire, and it looked like he was revisiting 2021. After a torrid April, Guerrero cooled off in May and June but still hit .274 with 13 home runs and 58 RBI at the All-Star break. He had two hits and a homer in his first game back, but then entered a prolonged and uncharacteristic slump. From July 15 through August 5, Guerrero hit only .203 with four HRs and 10 RBIs. He hit a bit better down the stretch but ended the year with a disappointing .264 BA with 26 HR and 94 RBI.

There are a few reasons why a rebound looks likely for Guerrero: His BB% was up and his K% was down from 2023, while his xBA and xSLG were .30 to .50 points higher than his BA and SLG. In addition, Guerrero’s .277. BABIP was the lowest of his career. A return to elite status isn’t out of the question for Vlad, who could prove a bargain at his current ADP.

Willy Adames (SS – MIL)

Adames’ 2023 was similar to Tatis’ in many ways, albeit at a lower level. His BB% was up, his K% down, and his xBA of .242 was higher than his .238 BA from 2022. Yet, he only hit .217 this past season, though he still managed to slug 24 dingers. A .259 BABIP seems to be responsible for his average dip, along with three devastating slumps:

April 23 – May 4: two hits in 34 at-bats (.059 average)
June 24 – June 29: zero hits in 22 at-bats (.000)
August 29 – September 5: one hit in 23 at-bats (.043)

If we remove these three stretches, Adames hit .247, aligning with his career norm. He’s not likely to ever have a high BA, but if he can bring it back to a place that doesn’t tank the category, he could be an excellent source of cheap power, especially since he’s currently being drafted 26th among shortstops.