Fantasy Baseball Draft Targets: Aaron Nola, Will Smith, Dylan Floro (2024)

With Spring Training and fantasy drafts just around the corner, it’s a good time to look back at 2023 to target potential bounce-back candidates. One way to do this is to identify hitters who suffered through an unusually brutal slump (or slumps) and pitchers whose final ERA was marred by a handful of bad outings.

Here are all 10 players who fit this profile and could prove to be bargains in 2024 fantasy drafts. Below we dive into a few notable names.

Players Better Than Their Slumps (2024 Fantasy Baseball)

Aaron Nola (SP – PHI)

Nola’s 2023 was more complicated than that of Cease and Strider. He didn’t have any complete meltdown performances, but rather several bad outings couched around mostly good ones. His 4.46 ERA was higher than his 4.03 FIP and 3.77 xERA, but his BB% was up, and his K% was down. However, three stats provide confidence that he can turn things around. First, his 66.4% LOB% was the second-worst in MLB. Second, his 15.6% HR/FB ratio was the fifth-worst. Only four pitchers allowed more than Nola’s nine unearned runs as well. These should even out and bring his ERA back to an acceptable level in 2024.

That said, this article is about slumps and bad outings, of which Nola had his share. Taking out his three worst appearances, his ERA drops to a more respectable 3.94:

March 30: Five earned runs in 3 and 2/3 innings (12.27 ERA)
July 29: Five earned runs in 4 and 2/4 innings (9.64 ERA)
September 2: Seven earned runs in 4 and 2/3 innings (13.50 ERA)

The Phillies are confident Nola will be better going forward. Otherwise, they wouldn’t have given him a seven-year, $172m contract during the offseason. The evidence suggests fantasy managers should believe in a turnaround as well.

Will Smith (RP – KC)

Smith’s 4.40 ERA in 2023 isn’t indicative of his season. He was cruising along, closing out games for the Rangers until late August. Then, on August 20, he surrendered three earned runs in 2/3 of an inning (40.50 ERA). The next day, he blew a save opportunity, giving up two earned runs in 2/3 of an inning. He didn’t get another chance to close until September 18, upon which he was lit up for three runs after recording only one out, blowing another save. At this point, Jose Leclerc was the closer.

Excluding these three outings, Smith had a 3.23 ERA on the season and converted 22 of 25 save attempts. This offseason, he signed with the Royals, who have no clear-cut closer on their roster. Smith is far from a sure thing, but is worth a flier for a cheap source of saves in deep leagues. At the very least, he’s someone to monitor.

Dylan Floro (RP – WSH)

Floro is a bit deeper on the depth chart than Smith, but likewise, he is someone to keep an eye on given the closer situation in Washington, whom he signed with in December. Kyle Finnegan and Hunter Harvey are far from sure things, and Floro has experience closing games. This past season, Floro was plagued by a .401 BABIP and 65.3% strand rate, which drove his ERA to an unsightly 4.76. His other peripherals were in line with recent seasons, and his 2.96 FIP and 3.38 xERA indicate he was much better than his ERA.

Floro made 62 appearances with the Marlins and Twins last season and posted a 1.20 ERA in 55 of them. In the other seven, Floro’s ERA was 47.81. His propensity for blowup outings is hardly a comfort to fantasy managers. Still, he could easily remedy this and find himself at the back end of the bullpen for the Nationals before long.