Below are three early fantasy baseball sleepers that I expect to move up the draft board as the season gets closer. So, like your balding, middle-aged high school math teacher going through a divorce, I’m about to drop some knowledge on you.
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2024 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers to Target
Jesus Luzardo (SP – MIA): ECR 95
The most important determinant of starting pitcher success is the ability to put a batter away. Analysts love to point to WHIP or strikeout rate or even walk rate to pinpoint their guy, but that is potentially flawed in my mind. It’s easy to use those stats, and I agree they are incredibly important (especially opponent OPS). In my opinion, however, those are more outcomes of multiple variables rather than an independent variable in itself.
Coming from someone who spends way too much time analyzing edges in fantasy baseball, two pitching factors are paramount to predict success: Spin rate and arsenal. Pitchers need to have a put away pitch, and they need to be able to keep the batter guessing.
Luzardo features a top-10 spin rate on his fastball, top-five on his cutter, and top-25 on his changeup (min 400 pitches). He’s got the arsenal and the movement. Plus, he’s young.
There are rumors Luzardo will be moved to a contender this year. Draft him in the seventh and feel great about your No. 2 SP. He’s being drafted as a top-35 pitcher, but he could finish the season much higher than that, delivering a few games that will win you a week.
Max Muncy (2B,3B,DH – LAD): ECR 148
Speaking of your old divorced math teacher, he always told you “luck is when preparation meets opportunity.” Muncy is slated to bat fifth in an incredible Dodgers lineup, so he will see even more opportunities to drive in runs than last year when he finished with over 100 RBI.
Muncy is versatile, will start 70-plus percent of games, and he finished eighth at third base in points leagues last year. He just got an extension too, so he won’t be benched immediately.
The 130th player off the board. What am I missing here?
Steven Kwan (LF,RF – CLE): ECR 182
As Luis Arraez gets the headlines with his mere seven-percent swing-and-miss rate (insane) and is a points-league darling, Kwan is getting lost in the shuffle. Kwan recorded an 11-percent swing-and-miss rate (5th) in 2023 while scoring more runs than strikeouts and stealing 20 bases.
Kwan turned 26 in September, so he’s entering his prime. I expect him to easily return value at his ADP of 171. The Cleveland leadoff man will be in 2024 what Arraez was in 2023; a highly touted contact hitter in a great situation.
Kwan can win you a week but will never lose you a week. Grab him in the 16th round and get a steady weekly starter.
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