Players typically shouldn’t be avoided at all costs, and most of the following pitchers are worth drafting if they fall beyond their average draft position (ADP). The idea of this piece is to highlight pitchers overvalued enough that gamers should fade them in the proximity of their ADP. However, an opportunity cost exists for using a roster spot on a player. So, even though the last featured pitcher has a cheap ADP and name value, he’s a lousy selection in 12-team mixed leagues or shallower.
Pitchers to Avoid
George Kirby (SEA – SP) – 47.3 ADP
According to the value-based ranking (VBR) metric, Kirby was the ninth-best pitcher in 2023. His ADP is 10th among pitchers this season. At a glance, that seems reasonable.
Unfortunately, Kirby’s underlying data didn’t quite align with his surface stats last season. According to FanGraphs, Kirby’s 3.35 ERA was lower than his 3.82 xERA, 3.63 xFIP and 3.71 SIERA. Furthermore, all of his ERA estimators were worse in 2023 than in 2022.
In addition, the young righty’s strikeout rate shrunk from 24.5% in 2022 to 22.7% in 2023. Kirby doesn’t have an elite putaway pitch. So, his strikeout rate in 2023 is likely a better gauge for his 2024 outlook than his 2022 mark. Kirby is a talented pitcher who can chew up innings. Regardless, he should be in the same ADP bucket as Max Fried (57.3 ADP), Framber Valdez (60.3) and Logan Webb (62.5) instead of roughly a round ahead of them.
David Bednar (PIT – RP) – 84.0 ADP
Bednar had a career-low 2.00 ERA in 66 appearances and 67.1 innings last season. However, his 3.86 xFIP was his highest since breaking out with the Pirates in 2021, and his 2.84 xERA split the difference between his 2.51 xERA in 2021 and 3.22 xERA in 2022.
Additionally, Bednar had a 32.7 K%, 31.1 CSW% and 1.04 WHIP in 112.1 innings from 2021 through 2022 before dipping to a 28.9 K%, 29.0 CSW% and 1.10 WHIP in 2023. Even with good luck last year, Bednar was the 40th-ranked pitcher, making his 27th-ranked pitcher in ADP a grossly inflated price. Pittsburgh’s closer’s profile isn’t befitting a top-100 pick.
Bobby Miller (LAD – SP) – 84.3 ADP
Miller is the poster child for disliking a player’s ADP but not the player. The 24-year-old hurler has an electrifying arm and a bright future. Among pitchers with a minimum of 120 innings in 2023, Miller had the fifth-highest Stuff+ (123) and the third-highest Pitching+ (110). The pitch-modeling data was elite.
Yet, Miller’s 23.6 K% and 28.2 CSW% were more good than great. The young hurler’s changeup was his best offering for missing bats, sporting a 17.2 SwStr% last season. However, his slider (13.3 SwStr%) and curveball (13.3 SwStr%) were decent instead of dominant.
Strikeouts aren’t everything. Miller’s 3.76 ERA, 3.45 xERA, 3.75 xFIP, 3.93 SIERA and 1.10 WHIP were also solid if unspectacular, though. Miller should take a step forward this season. Sadly, he’ll also probably face an innings limit after throwing a career-high 138.2 in 2023. Moreover, LA has championship aspirations and must build in playoff innings for Miller. He’s undoubtedly an ascending talent, but his ADP is rich.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.