This past week, we revealed 10 players whose slumps led to lower fantasy numbers in 2023 than we can expect in 2024. This week, we’ll look at the other side of the coin and lay out 10 players who aren’t likely to duplicate their production from this past year. This doesn’t mean they’re undraftable at the right price. It means you shouldn’t take them anticipating a repeat performance.
Once again, we’ll look at five hitters and five pitchers. For each, we’ll start with their 2023 VBR, fantasy production, and four other stats that support an impending drop-off. If any of the terminologies is new to you, take a look at FantasyPros Sabermetrics Glossary for definitions. Here are 10 Players Who Won’t Repeat Their 2023 Success. Below we dive into a few notable names.
Players Who Won’t Repeat Their 2023 Seasons (2024 Fantasy Baseball)
2023 SP VBR: 8
| ERA | WHIP | WINS | K/9 |
| 2.83 | 1.04 | 12 | 9.0 |
| HR/FB | LOB% | HardHit% | xERA |
| 10.2% | 79% | 42% | 3.82 |
After his 11th start of the season, on June 8, Bradish’s record stood at 2-2, accompanied by a 4.25 ERA. He had performed about as expected – as a mid-rotation starter with good and bad outings. Over the next 19 starts, Bradish went 10-5 with a 2.18 ERA, elevating himself to fantasy elite status. Did the 26-year-old starter turn a corner, or did he merely have a lucky stretch? We lean towards the latter. He doesn’t throw particularly hard or miss many bats, and his BB% is near the league average. He did an excellent job stranding runners and keeping the ball in the park this past season, which may regress. Batters made good contact against him, and his xERA was a run higher per game. Consider him a third or fourth starter come draft day, not a No. 1.
2023 SP VBR: 29
| ERA | WHIP | WINS | K/9 |
| 3.22 | 1.16 | 14 | 8.3 |
| HR/FB | BABIP | LOB% | xERA |
| 9.1% | .266 | 80% | 4.30 |
Wacha came out of nowhere to have one of the best seasons of his career in 2023. Besides a mediocre K%, he rewarded fantasy owners who gambled and added him off the waiver wire. He leveraged his strong season into a two-year deal with the Royals in December, who don’t play in as friendly a park for pitchers as the Padres, albeit one that limits the long ball. Wacha’s numbers this past year drew an assist from a low BABIP and HR/FB ratio and a high LOB%. He doesn’t miss many bats, has an average walk rate, and his xERA was over a run higher than his ERA last season. Wacha’s career has been so up and down it’s hard to know what to expect from him in 2024. The prudent option is to take him as a back-end starter (at best) and hope he can keep it going.
2023 SP VBR: 50
| ERA | WHIP | WINS | K/9 |
| 3.14 | 1.14 | 9 | 5.9 |
| HR/FB | BABIP | LOB% | FIP |
| 11.7% | .234 | 82% | 4.69 |
Miley isn’t going to help your strikeout totals, and he only pitched past the sixth inning twice this past season. Thus, he needs to post a stellar ERA and WHIP to help your fantasy team, as he did in 2023. He is certainly capable of this, as his ERA has been under 4.00 the past three seasons, but it’s not something you want to bank on. A low BABIP and HR/FB%, high LOB%, and 4.69 FIP suggest he’s more likely to regress than repeat. Plus, he turned 37 in the offseason, and injuries have limited him to 31 starts over the past two seasons. So if he’s sitting there towards the end of your draft and you think that 3.14 ERA from last year looks nice, think again and draft a risky player with upside.
2023 RP VBR: 32
| ERA | WHIP | SAVES | K/9 |
| 3.76 | 1.30 | 28 | 8.2 |
| xERA | SwStr% | BLOWN SAVES | HardHit% |
| 4.83 | 11.0% | 8 | 47.5% |
Finnegan’s 28 saves in 2023 were the 13th-most in baseball, and his eight blown saves were the third-most. Finnegan’s other fantasy-related stats – a middling ERA, high WHIP and modest K% didn’t help his managers. His only value came from the saves; if anything, he was lucky to post an ERA as low as he did. Washington simply didn’t have many other options to close games. Hunter Harvey (RP – WAS) pitched his way into a committee by mid-season, but Finnegan still got most of the opportunities. This season, the Nats have more options. Harvey is back, and Tanner Rainey (RP – WAS) returns from 2022 Tommy John surgery. Washington also added Dylan Floro (RP – WAS) this offseason. Finnegan will get an opportunity but not nearly as much leeway to hold onto the job.
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