Every year, it’s fun to sit down, do your research, and figure out which guys you like for the upcoming fantasy baseball season. We all have our favorites, whether it’s someone from your favorite team that you know is going to blow up this year or someone you’ve been watching closely that’s trending in a positive direction. Keying in on those guys can be a crucial part of distinguishing yourself between a fantasy baseball player and a fantasy baseball champion.
Another big differentiator is focusing on the guys you want to avoid. There are caveats to this, however. While you may dislike a player for burning you a time or two (I’m looking at you, Tommy Edman), it’s important to understand that you can only avoid players to a certain point. Much of this should be ADP-based, although you can also avoid players based on not believing in hype or potential outcomes.
A prime example of this would be Luis Robert Jr. You may love Robert Jr. the player, but when it comes to fantasy baseball, you just can’t fathom drafting a player with big injury concerns as your third round pick. Fully understandable. But now let’s say it’s the sixth round and Robert Jr. is still there for some reason. At that point, it becomes a smart draft pick. Your “Do Not Draft” list needs to have limitations, at least for guys who are earlier-round picks.
That said, I’ve compiled my list of 10 hitters I’m avoiding this season. Below we dive into a few notable names.
Hitters To Avoid (2024 Fantasy Baseball)
Cody Bellinger (1B/OF – FA)
While his addition to my “Do Not Draf” list does have a bit to do with the fact he’s still unsigned, it has more to do with the fact that I’m not sold on the production. Bellinger has had quite the career; he came out guns blazing to begin and then essentially bottomed out in 2021 and 2022. He ended up with a solid 26/20 season to bounce back in 2023, but is it sustainable?
At pick 55 as the 15th outfielder off the board, he’s likely your OF2 unless you waited, and then he’s closer to your OF1. It’s tough to count on a guy to repeat when his underlying metrics suggest he overachieved the year prior. His 87.9 MPH average exit velocity, 109 MPH max exit velocity, 87.6 MPH fly ball velocity, and 5.9% barrel rate all suggest those home run numbers could very well regress, especially if he ends up in a much less hitter-friendly ballpark. There are just too many question marks for me to be comfortable drafting Cody Bellinger as likely one of my top two outfielders.
JT Realmuto (C – PHI)
Believe it or not, catcher is actually a fairly deep position in 2024. Gone are the days of needing one of the top two guys in order to get any production from the position. As it sits right now, there are 16 catchers that I think will put up starter-worthy production this year. So using your sixth-round pick on any catcher feels like a reach, let alone a catcher whose higher value is mainly predicated by his ability to steal bases. Steals are now cheaper than they’ve ever been.
Realmuto isn’t bad by any means. He’ll put up great, productive numbers this season like he always has. His 2023 season was arguably the second-best of his career, after going 20/16 while hitting .252 in that great lineup. But there are just so many great catchers getting drafted much later. Yainer Diaz and Cal Raleigh, for example, are my current C6 and C5. They’re being drafted 3-5 rounds later. Save yourself from being the guy who took a catcher early and capitalize on the later-round production.
Xander Bogaerts (SS – SD)
I was out on Bogaerts last season, and I’m very out on Bogaerts this season. Many of my concerns came from the fact that he seems like the prototypical “I hit really well at Fenway” guy and honestly, that wasn’t far off in 2023. Bogaerts came out of the gate hot in his first 29 games, then proceeded to hit .244 with a .666 OPS through his next 425 plate appearances. He had just 26 XBH in that timeframe. Had it not been for his outrageous September production, where he hit .417, we’d be having a completely different conversation about him right now.
Outside of the fact that he’s not nearly as productive as he once was, he plays a premier fantasy position. There are currently 13 shortstops going within the top 108 picks and 16 going within the top 136. Taking a low-ceiling player like Bogaerts diminishes your value when you have plenty of better options readily available. Add in that he’s now playing in a lineup without Juan Soto and the risk is even greater for Bogaerts losing counting stats. This isn’t 2018/2019 Xander anymore. Let someone else have him.
Esteury Ruiz (OF – OAK)
This one hurts to write, because I think he is incredibly fun to watch and follow throughout the season. He honestly has a real possibility at 100 stolen bases this year, should he manage to play in 150 games. The issue is that he’s a one-trick pony who isn’t even really average at anything else. Two years ago, someone who could get on base and steal 70 bases with their eyes closed may have been a top-50 pick. Nowadays, stolen bases are so cheap that even the elite options hold less value.
Playing in Oakland doesn’t help either. Their lineup is probably the worst in baseball, top to bottom. So even though he limits strikeouts, hits around .250, and steals bases at a tremendous rate, he’s still likely going to score under 50 runs and drive in even fewer while also hitting single-digit home runs. If you’re in a category or rotisserie league and have punted on steals for the first ten rounds, then maybe he’s worth a pick. But otherwise, he just doesn’t do enough to justify being taken within the top 120 picks.
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