Every year, it’s fun to sit down, do your research, and figure out which guys you like for the upcoming fantasy baseball season. We all have our favorites, whether it’s someone from your favorite team that you know is going to blow up this year or someone you’ve been watching closely that’s trending in a positive direction. Keying in on those guys can be a crucial part of distinguishing yourself between a fantasy baseball player and a fantasy baseball champion.
Another big differentiator is focusing on the guys you want to avoid. There are caveats to this, however. While you may dislike a player for burning you a time or two (I’m looking at you, Tommy Edman), it’s important to understand that you can only avoid players to a certain point. Much of this should be ADP-based, although you can also avoid players based on not believing in hype or potential outcomes.
A prime example of this would be Luis Robert Jr. You may love Robert Jr. the player, but when it comes to fantasy baseball, you just can’t fathom drafting a player with big injury concerns as your third round pick. Fully understandable. But now let’s say it’s the sixth round and Robert Jr. is still there for some reason. At that point, it becomes a smart draft pick. Your “Do Not Draft” list needs to have limitations, at least for guys who are earlier-round picks.
That said, I’ve compiled my list of 10 hitters I’m avoiding this season. Below we dive into a few notable names.
Hitters To Avoid (2024 Fantasy Baseball)
Daulton Varsho (OF – TOR)
Varsho is currently carrying an ADP of 214 in January drafts over on NFBC, which makes him a later-round selection, but he’s the one player I’m avoiding at all costs, regardless of whether or not he slips in drafts. The hype around Varsho started in Arizona, when he showed he was a power-hitting catcher with speed. Those didn’t exist outside of a guy like JT Realmuto.
Now fast forward to 2024 and Varsho has lost the biggest thing that made him fantasy-relevant: catcher eligibility. Without that eligibility, Varsho becomes a 20-home-run guy who’ll likely steal around 15 bases and hit slightly over the Mendoza line. That skill set is something you can find from another player without needing to spend so much draft capital on a guy with essentially no upside. He is who he is and it’s an average fantasy baseball outfielder at best. He is worth avoiding.
Elly De La Cruz (SS/3B – CIN)
I understand how polarizing of a player De La Cruz is. Trust me. And to be honest, I love him just as much as anybody. I want to see this kid thrive in Cincinnati and become the next face of baseball. The problem for me comes from the fact that his current ADP of 23 is just too steep for a guy with legitimate contact and batting average concerns.
He has the upside to be the number one overall player in fantasy baseball. Not many players have that and I’m not doubting it in any way. But it’s fair to question how sustainable the production will be from a switch hitter with a 33.7% strikeout rate. He also struggles mightily as a right-hander and his quality of contact numbers declined down the stretch with just a 71.6% contact rate. The ceiling is enticing, but his floor is too low for me to risk it.
Royce Lewis (3B – MIN)
Two words: injury concerns. Saying that feels like beating a dead horse at this point, but that doesn’t make it any less true. Royce Lewis put on a power display in his time in the majors and even the minors last season. Lewis has also played a grand total of 118 games at any level since 2019. That is a massive red flag, especially for someone being drafted in the fourth round or even as high as the 22nd pick.
As I said, the power is legitimate and easy to get excited about. His 11.7% barrel rate and 90.2 MPH average exit velocity were well above league average, as were the 21 home runs he hit in just 70 games. But there should be concern about the fact that much of his hype came from hitting four grand slams in 17 games. A wild occurrence, and not something he or anyone else can easily replicate.
Third base has enough excellent guys going after him (like Alex Bregman, Josh Jung, and Spencer Steer) so let someone else inherit the risk with Lewis.
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