Every year, it’s fun to sit down, do your research, and figure out which guys you like for the upcoming fantasy baseball season. We all have our favorites, whether it’s someone from your favorite team that you know is going to blow up this year or someone you’ve been watching closely that’s trending in a positive direction. Keying in on those guys can be a crucial part of distinguishing yourself between a fantasy baseball player and a fantasy baseball champion.
Another big differentiator is focusing on the guys you want to avoid. There are caveats to this, however. While you may dislike a player for burning you a time or two (I’m looking at you, Tommy Edman), it’s important to understand that you can only avoid players to a certain point. Much of this should be ADP-based, although you can also avoid players based on not believing in hype or potential outcomes.
A prime example of this would be Luis Robert Jr. You may love Robert Jr. the player, but when it comes to fantasy baseball, you just can’t fathom drafting a player with big injury concerns as your third round pick. Fully understandable. But now let’s say it’s the sixth round and Robert Jr. is still there for some reason. At that point, it becomes a smart draft pick. Your “Do Not Draft” list needs to have limitations, at least for guys who are earlier-round picks.
That said, I’ve compiled my list of 10 hitters I’m avoiding this season. Below we dive into a few notable names.
Hitters To Avoid (2024 Fantasy Baseball)
Cedric Mullins (OF – BAL)
Cedric Mullins has slowly become less of a fantasy asset as each season ticks by. Gone are the 30/30 days of 2021 when the baseball world was Mullins’ oyster and he could do no wrong. Here are the days of Mullins being a top-150 pick who likely won’t hit .250 and is projected 18 home runs and 27 stolen bases. Starling Marte is projected to go 14/30 this season and can be drafted 70 picks later.
Don’t draft mid-level guys in the top 150 hoping that they can one day get back to their former selves, especially if that former self was from two healthy seasons ago. Mullins saw his batting average drop by over 20 points for the second straight season, plus he has an average exit velocity and barrel rate well below league average. His flyball rate (49%) and pull rate (46.8%) are those of a guy who needs to hit the ball with authority to be successful. Mullins is now a speedster who hits soft flyballs, which is not a recipe for success.
Steven Kwan (OF – CLE)
For all the hype that Steven Kwan had heading into the 2023 season, you’d think he would have put up some pretty special numbers. Instead, he took a slight step back and moved himself into “what is he really contributing to my team?” territory outside of points leagues. He makes great contact, at 91.1% for his career, and he scores a good amount of runs (182 in two seasons), but that didn’t correlate to any form of fantasy-relevant production.
He certainly does shine in points leagues. His low strikeout rate and ability to get on base lend themselves well to a high points league output. The problem is outside of that, he’s becoming a guy who’s a better real-life baseball player than fantasy baseball asset. Combine that with the fact that arguably better options are being drafted right around him (Lars Nootbaar, Kerry Carpenter, and Christopher Morel, to name a few) and there’s little reason to feel like Kwan is an absolute must-draft player.
Luis Robert Jr. (OF – CWS)
As I alluded to in the opener, Robert Jr. is on my “Do Not Draft” list. Maybe you’re thinking, “But he just had a monster season where he went 38/20. There’s no way you should avoid him!” And trust me, I get it. Robert Jr.’s addition to the list comes almost exclusively from the fact that drafting someone with that much injury risk in the first three rounds makes me nervous. A big key to winning leagues is locking down big-time performers early on and nailing the later rounds. If one of your early-round picks misses significant time due to injury, you’re in a big hole.
The talent of Robert Jr. has never been in question. He was once baseball’s top prospect for a reason. He flashed a great hit tool, power, and speed early on in his career, but for the first three years, he never cracked 100 games played. He finally did in 2023, playing 145 games, but he still ended the year on the IL with an MCL sprain. Some guys just seem prone to nagging injuries and Robert Jr. has yet to prove that he’s not one of them. If you’re drafting someone as an OF1, it needs to be someone trustworthy. Robert Jr. isn’t trustworthy of third-round status quite yet.
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