As we head into the new year and ramp up the 2023 fantasy baseball draft prep, let’s look back at the early rounds of the 2023 drafts. This will be a five-part series, reviewing each pick of the first five rounds. This series will focus on 12-team leagues, so 60 players are discussed, and will use end-of-draft season ADP from NFBC Online Championships. I chose NFBC over sources like CBS, Yahoo, and ESPN as I could not find those historical ADPs.

Looking back on what went right and wrong from the previous season is an excellent exercise before digging into the 2024 research. So we will dig in and see what players were worth the draft day price. Which players were busts? And even which players were major hits that likely helped fantasy players win leagues.

The results of a draft pick can vary from format to format so I will focus on 5×5 ROTO formats, but the information should also help points leagues and H2H players. If you have any further questions on the analysis by rounds or more for your 2024 season, please contact me on Twitter. But first, let’s look at picks 25-36 from the 2023 draft season.

• 2023 ADP Review: Round 1 | Round 2
• 2024 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit
• Fantasy Baseball Draft Rankings
• Fantasy Baseball Projections

2023 Fantasy Baseball ADP Recap (Picks 25-36)

25. Jacob deGrom (SP – TEX)

deGrom had injury concerns entering 2023, which led to a third round ADP. Those concerns were justified as deGrom only made six starts and threw 30.1 innings. He was great as usual over those 30.1 innings but did not return value at his 2023 ADP.

26. Sandy Alcantara (SP – MIA)

Alcantara entered 2023 off of an elite 2022 season and was becoming a workhorse on the mound. He took a giant step back with a 4.14 ERA and 1.21 WHIP, both worse than previous seasons. Strikeouts also dropped and, in the end, suffered a UCL injury that resulted in Tommy John surgery.

27. J.T. Realmuto (C – PHI)

This past season felt like a slow year for Realmuto. But in the end, he still finished with a very serviceable stat line from the catching position. His batting average fell to .252, but he still hit 20 home runs and stole 16 bases. There was hope that Realmuto would gain more at-bats at first base and DH with Bryce Harper starting the year on the IL and Rhys Hoskins missing the season. That did not happen, but it was still a decent season.

28. Michael Harris II (OF – ATL)

After an excellent rookie season in 2022, Harris backed his production up with a solid sophomore season. Harris again had an outstanding batting average of .293 with 18 home runs and 20 stolen bases over 138 games. That’s not bad for a 22-year-old, and there is plenty of room for more improvement in 2024.

29. Edwin Diaz (RP – NYM)

Diaz was the first closer off the board and was a great pic until a knee injury in the WBC ended his 2023 season. I’m hoping for a great season once again in 2024.

30. Emmanuel Clase (RP – CLE)

After 42 saves and elite ratios in 2022, Clase had another strong season in 2023. Clase collected 44 saves to lead baseball. The saves were great, but Clase did take a significant step back in strikeouts from 28.4% in 2022 to 21.2%. His ratios also rose from a 1.36 ERA to a 3.22 ERA. There are some concerns with the strikeouts and ratios, but the saves are still great, and Clase could get to his elite form in 2024.

31. Marcus Semien (2B – TEX)

Semien has been a consistent fantasy force, racking up 700+ plate appearances year after year. He did this again in 2023 while also hitting .276 with 29 home runs, 14 stolen bases, 122 runs scored and 100 RBI. Semien was a five-category contributor with elite-run production, which is not easily found.

32. Jazz Chisholm (OF – MIA)

It was another season with high expectations for Chisholm and another season cut short by an injury. Jass had three injuries in 2023, cutting his season to 97 games. Even though he only played 97 games there, Chisholm still hit 19 home runs and stole 22 bases. We all know Chisholm is a 30/30 beast if he could just play an entire season, and that is why fantasy managers continue to draft Jazz early in drafts.

33. Francisco Lindor (SS – NYM)

Lindor was once a top-tier shortstop in fantasy and climbed back near the top in 2023. Lindor scored 31/31 with a .254 batting average, scoring 108 runs and driving in 98. Lindor has hit at least 20 home runs in six seasons with double-digit stolen bases. That is quite a consistent producer that is great to draft early in drafts.

34. Nolan Arenado (3B – STL)

Arenado had a down season in his age-32 season. Arenado hit 26 home runs with a .266 batting average. The average was down from .293 in 2022, and it was the first time he did not hit at least 30 home runs after seven consecutive seasons of doing so. Arenado also drove in 93 runs, the first time he has not driven in at least 100 runs since 2014. A lot went wrong for Arenado, and one has to wonder if it was a lingering injury slowing Arenado down or father time catching up with the veteran third baseman.

35. Aaron Nola (SP – PHI)

It was an odd season for Nola, which meant a down season for ratios for Nola. I know we can’t say it’s an even and odd year thing, but it has been the case of late for Nola. He finished the season with a 4.46 ERA, which is not great, but Nola still throws at least 190 innings, the fourth time he has done that over the past five seasons. Nola still had a K-BB% of 19.8%, close to the 20% we look for in elite pitchers. I am still in on Nola for 2024.

36. Randy Arozarena (OF – TB)

Once again, Arozarena had another quality fantasy season, going 20/20 for the third consecutive season. Arozarena hit 23 home runs while stealing 22 bases with a .254 batting average. Arozarena scored 95 runs while driving in 83, again making him a five-category contributor for fantasy managers.

Conclusion

Round 3 was the first round where we saw some severe landmines that could derail a fantasy draft. deGrom and Alcantara crushed those who took a chance on them as their SP1s, while Diaz destroyed those who took him as the top closer in drafts. There was some good, though, as Harris, Semien, Lindor and Arozarena returned great fantasy value, and a few of those players will be going even earlier in 2024.

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