As we head into the new year and ramp up the 2024 fantasy baseball draft prep, let’s look back at the early rounds of the 2023 drafts. This will be a five-part series, reviewing each pick of the first five rounds. Don’t miss part one. This series will focus on 12-team leagues, so 60 players are discussed, and will use end-of-draft season average draft position (ADP) data from NFBC Online Championships. I chose NFBC over sources like CBS, Yahoo and ESPN as I could not find those historical ADPs.
Looking back on what went right and wrong from the previous season is an excellent exercise before digging into 2024 research. Which players were worth their draft-day price? Which players were busts? Which players were major hits that likely helped fantasy players win leagues?
Draft results can vary from format to format so our focus is on 5×5 ROTO formats, but the information should also help points leagues and head-to-head (H2H) players. If you have any further questions on the analysis by rounds or anything else for your 2024 season you can contact me on Twitter. But first, let’s look at picks 13-24 from the 2023 draft season.
2023 Fantasy Baseball ADP Recap (Picks 13-24)
13. Yordan Alvarez (HOU – OF)
We know Yordan Alvarez is one of the best pure hitters in baseball and, more importantly, one of the best power hitters. It always comes down to health for him, though, which was once again the occurrence in 2023. He only played in 114 games but hit 31 home runs and drove in 97 while hitting .293. Alvarez did not hurt your fantasy team with those numbers, but once again left us with the question, “What could have been if he stayed healthy?” He will again be an early draft target in 2024. If he ever puts together a healthy season he could be a 50-home-run bat in your fantasy lineups.
14. Manny Machado (SD – 3B)
Manny Machado battled an injury in 2023 but still managed to play in 138 games and hit 30 home runs. He only hit .258 and stole three bases, which you’d hope for more, but his 91 RBIs were still solid. Machado had surgery to repair his injury and should be ready early in the 2024 season, which makes for a nice potential bounce back to his first-round form.
15. Freddie Freeman (LAD – 1B)
In quite some time, Freddie Freeman put in one of the best fantasy seasons for a first baseman. He hit .331 with 29 home runs and 23 stolen bases, scoring 131 and driving in 102. That’s a monster five-category season from the Dodgers’ first baseman, especially the 23 steals. Freeman continues to provide fantastic batting average gains to go with the other four categories, making him one of the best first-round targets in 2024.
16. Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD – SS, OF)
Fernando Tatis fell out of the first round in 2023 due to a lingering performance-enhancing drug (PED) suspension, but those who took the chance were kindly rewarded. Tatis still played in 141 games and hit 25 home runs while stealing 29 bases. He only hit .257, which is bound to return to his usual .275-.280 career norms, making Tatis a popular early first-round target again.
17. Corbin Burnes (MIL – SP)
We finally get to some pitching in the early rounds. Corbin Burnes was the first pitcher off the board and returned excellent value. He was not the elite arm he was in 2022, but in 2023, Burnes still threw 193.2 innings with a 3.39 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. His strikeouts dropped a bit, down to a 25.5% rate, while his walk rate rose to 8.4%, which was the main blemish on a solid season. Burnes may not be elite but he is still one of the top arms to draft in 2024.
18. Gerrit Cole (NYY – SP)
Gerrit Cole was once again a workhorse on the mound in 2023, which resulted in an AL Cy Young season. Cole threw 209 innings with a 2.63 ERA and 0.98 WHIP — elite ratios for a fantasy team. He also picked up 15 wins to go with a 21.2% K-BB. The K-BB was down 5% from previous seasons but is still an elite arm that will again garner early-round consideration in 2024.
19. Mike Trout (LAA – OF)
Mike Trout fell out of his usual first-round spot in 2023 due to perennial injury concerns, which turned out to be valid. Trout only played in 82 games, hitting 18 home runs with a .263 batting average. He could never get fully healthy and contribute to the Angels or a fantasy team. Trout’s early ADP is plummeting in early 2024 drafts, which may be a steal if he can get back to 140+ games played.
20. Pete Alonso (NYM – 1B)
Pete Alonso remains a significant power source for fantasy teams, as he hit 46 home runs in 2023 to go with 118 RBI. The downfall for Alonso was a .217 batting average, which appears to be highly flukey. Alonso had a .205 BABIP, which is down from his usual .275 BABIP. We have to imagine that returns in 2024 as his hard-hit and barrel rates were still solid. Big Meat Pete is one of the best power bats to target and may return late first-round value this season.
21. Austin Riley (ATL – 3B)
Austin Riley once again put together a strong season at the third base position, hitting 37 home runs while driving in 97 and scoring 117 while hitting .281. There were early concerns that Riley would not hit for average but he has now hit .273 or better for three straight years, recording at least 33 home runs and combining for nearly 200 runs and RBIs each season. Playing in the potent Braves lineup should once again make Riley a great fantasy third-baseman.
22. Rafael Devers (BOS – 3B)
Rafael Devers is a boring, consistent fantasy player who did it again in 2023. Devers hit .271 with 33 home runs, 100 RBIs and 90 runs scored. He will not help in the stolen base department but he consistently provides 30+ home runs with a strong batting average and great counting stats. His perennial production is similar to Austin Riley. Devers should not be overlooked come draft day.
23. Paul Goldschmidt (STL – 1B)
Paul Goldschmidt had a down year for Goldy standards as he hit 25 home runs while stealing 11 bases and hitting .268. His batting average was the major bummer as he has hit .294 or better for three straight seasons and had 30+ home runs in the previous two years. The speed was there, which is a plus, and he should continue to provide counting stats hitting in the middle of the Cardinals lineup. Any improvement in the batting average from Goldschmidt could result in an excellent bounce-back season
24. Spencer Strider (ATL – SP)
Spencer Strider had quite the 2023 season. Expectations were high; overall, he lived up to them over his 186.2 innings. Strider was a strikeout machine with 281 strikeouts and an elite 29.2% K-BB. He started giving up some runs late in the season, so his 3.86 ERA was not ideal. Overall, however, Strider was one of the best fantasy pitchers in the game in 2023.
Conclusion
There were only a few busts outside of Paul Goldschmidt and Mike Trout in the second round. If you avoided them, you were happy as can be. A few third basemen came through in a big way, especially for a somewhat shallow position. The first pitchers off the board were also interesting, with Burnes, Cole and Strider all returning solid value. The second round was a great spot to get a ton of power or an ace, with a bit of speed sprinkled throughout.
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