As we head into the new year and ramp up the 2024 fantasy baseball draft prep, let’s look back at the early rounds of the 2023 drafts. This will be a five-part series, reviewing each pick of the first five rounds. This series will focus on 12-team leagues, so 60 players are discussed, and will use end-of-draft season ADP from NFBC Online Championships. I chose NFBC over sources like CBS, Yahoo and ESPN as I could not find those historical ADPs.
Looking back on what went right and wrong from the previous season is an excellent exercise before digging into the 2024 research. So we will dig in and see what players were worth the draft day price. Which players were busts? And even which players were major hits that likely helped fantasy players win leagues.
The results of a draft pick can vary from format to format so I will focus on 5×5 ROTO formats, but the information should also help points leagues and H2H players. If you have any further questions on the analysis by rounds or more for your 2024 season, please contact me on Twitter. But first, let’s look at the top 12 picks from the 2023 draft season.
2023 Fantasy Baseball ADP Recap
1. Ronald Acuna Jr. (OF – ATL)
Acuna was the top pick by the end of the draft season, and he was worth every bit of that top pick. Some do not like the term “league-winner” as it takes more than one player to win a league, but Acuna is as close to a league winner as you can find. He was on many winning teams as he assembled a fantastic MVP season. Acuna hit .337 with 41 home runs while scoring 149 runs, driving in 106, and stealing a ridiculous 73 bases. Acuna put together one of the best fantasy seasons in history and is the top pick again this season. Do not overthink things, and take Acuna if you are lucky enough to get the first pick.
2. Trea Turner (SS – PHI)
Turner has perennially been one of the top picks in fantasy leagues, but he disappointed some fantasy managers this past year. It was a rough start for Turner in his first year with the Philadelphia Phillies, but the end stat line was still solid. He hit .266, down from .298, and was Turner’s lowest batting average since his rookie 2015 season. The other negative besides batting average was his 76 RBIs, which were down from the 100 RBIs in 2022 but closer to his career norms. There were some positives from Turner as he hit 26 home runs, scored 102 runs, and stole 30 bases. Turner is still a solid, 5-category fantasy player and is currently drafted in the back end of the first round, which should still return significant value.
3. Aaron Judge (OF – NYY)
After an MVP 2022 season, Judge returned to earth due to a considerable stint on the IL with a toe injury that bothered him for the remainder of the season even after he returned to the Yankees. Judge still hit 37 home runs over 106 games with the injury, though. He only scored 79 runs and drove in 75 while hitting .267, which was all way down from the previous season. A healthy Judge is one of the best fantasy players you can roster, but health has been a concern throughout his career. He is currently a back-end first-round draft pick, which makes for a nice draft price for Judge.
4. Jose Ramirez (3B – CLE)
Ramirez was the fourth pick for the second consecutive season, producing a steady fantasy season. Ramirez hit .282 with 24 home runs and 28 stolen bases, yet another 20/20 season for Ramirez, which is not found at third base. The counting stats were down a bit with only 80 RBIs, but that may happen to play on the Cleveland Guardians. Ramirez is one of the most consistent power and speed targets at third base while hitting for average, and he should once again be a first-round target in fantasy leagues.
5. Julio Rodriguez (OF – SEA)
After a slow start to the season, Rodriguez went wild in the second half, putting up one of the better fantasy seasons in 2023. Rodriguez finished with a stat line of .275/32/102/103/37 and a fantastic 30/30 season for Rodriguez. This past season came after a 28/25 season in his rookie year, making 2023 a great encore for the 23-year-old. Rodriguez is drafted within the top three picks in the early draft season, and that makes sense for a player who could go 40/40 this season.
6. Kyle Tucker (OF – HOU)
Tucker continues to put together strong season after season, and he did that again in 2023. Tucker hit .284 with 29 home runs and 30 steals. That was Tucker’s third consecutive season with at least 29 home runs and his second consecutive season with at least 25 stolen bases. That consistency is excellent, but Tucker had career highs last year with 97 runs scored and 112 RBI. Tucker is as consistent as they come, and if you can’t get Acuna or Rodriguez, Tucker is the next-best power and speed outfielder on the board.
7. Shohei Ohtani (SP/DH – LAD)
Ohtani was putting together another tremendous two-way season until another UCL injury stopped his pitching for the season. The injury may have prevented his pitching, but it did not stop Ohtani from mashing at the plate. He finished the season hitting .304 with 44 home runs and 20 stolen bases. Ohtani moves from the Los Angeles Angels to the Los Angeles Dodgers, which could result in even better counting stats to go with his power. Assuming Ohtani is ready to hit by Opening Day, he’s still one of the best hitters on draft day.
8. Bobby Witt Jr. (3B/SS – KC)
After a solid 2022 season, Witt was even better in 2023. He hit 30 home runs with 49 stolen bases while hitting .276. More importantly, Witt showcased improvements in contact and lowered his strikeout rate to 17.4%. Witt also combined for nearly 200 RBI and runs, which is impressive being a part of the Royals’ offense. Witt’s continued improvements excite fantasy managers for 2024, as Witt is going second in most early drafts.
9. Mookie Betts (OF – LAD)
Betts has been a fantasy stud for quite some time, and in 2023, he put together one of his best seasons. Betts hit .307 with 39 home runs and 14 stolen bases. He also benefited tremendously from leading off for the Dodgers by scoring an incredible 126 runs. Betts should continue his great 5-category fantasy production atop the exceptionally talented Dodgers lineup. Look for Betts to be a mid-first-round pick once again in 2024.
10. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B – TOR)
Guerrero found himself in the first round again in 2023, and he did not back up that draft pick. He only hit 26 home runs with 78 runs, 94 RBI and a .264 batting average. Those were all lows over the past three seasons for Guerrero. He still hits the ball on the ground a ton, which hinders his overall power production. He still hits the ball incredibly hard and has excellent plate discipline, but the fantasy production disappoints. In early 2024 drafts, Guerrero is being drafted after pick 30, which is more palatable with his current production.
11. Bo Bichette (SS – TOR)
Bichette had a decent 2023 season but not a season expected of a first-round pick. Bichette hit .308, which is very solid, but the rest of the stat line was disappointing. Bichette only stole five bases with 20 home runs, 69 runs scored and 73 RBI. Bichette did miss time on the IL, only playing in 135 games after playing in 159 in each of the previous two seasons, so some increased counting stat production should be expected in 2024. The stolen bases will likely be the downfall of Bichette’s fantasy value and the part of his game that will keep him from returning to first-round relevance.
12. Juan Soto (OF – NYY)
Soto was off to a slow start to the 2023 season, but in the end, he produced a great season again. He hit .275 with 35 home runs and 12 steals. Soto also scored 97 runs while driving in 109 over 162 games. Soto once again showcased great plate discipline as he walked 18.6% of the time while striking out 18.2%. Soto brings a fantastic floor to any fantasy team, and joining the Yankees could be even better in 2024.
Conclusion
Looking back at the first round, most picks came through quickly. Acuna was worth every penny of a first-round pick. Julio Rodriguez, Bobby Witt Jr. and Mookie Betts also returned early first-round value. Jose Ramirez, Kyle Tucker and Juan Soto brought their great floors to any roster heavily desired from a first-round pick. Aaron Judge and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. were the only picks that likely did not return the first-round value as expected. As a whole, you probably did well with your first-round picks.
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