We’ll be live from Mobile, Alabama this week to cover the 2024 Senior Bowl. We’ll be getting you ready for the 2024 NFL Draft, diving deep into practices and streaming live in the evenings throughout the week. Here is my 2024 Senior Bowl Preview. Below we dive into a few notable names in upcoming dynasty rookie drafts.
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2024 Senior Bowl Preview
*Note: Players with a * below are confirmed out for the game with injury.
2024 Senior Bowl Quarterback Preview
- Spencer Rattler (South Carolina)
- Michael Pratt (Tulane)
- Joe Milton III (Tennessee)
- Bo Nix (Oregon)
- Sam Hartman (Notre Dame)
- Michael Penix Jr. (Washington)
- Carter Bradley (South Alabama)
*Note: The Senior Bowl currently sits with an uneven seven quarterbacks for its two rosters. Executive director Jim Nagy told the media recently that it’s possible that an eighth quarterback could be added to the roster in the coming days. Nagy also said he may just stick with seven.
*Note: South Alabama’s Carter Bradley says he’s healthy from the recurring knee injury that cost him the last two games of the 2023 season.
Pre-Senior Bowl QB rankings off tape…
- Michael Penix Jr.
- Bo Nix
- Spencer Rattler
- Michael Pratt
- Joe Milton
- Sam Hartman
- Carter Bradley
Most to Prove: Joe Milton III (Tennessee)
This is the kind of showcase that was made for Joe Milton. He will almost assuredly rise on boards after Senior Bowl week. Joe Milton might have the strongest arm for throwing a football on planet earth. At 6’5/242, Milton is such a good athlete that he can do standing backflips. In walk-through simulations, he’s going to look like a million bucks. In game conditions, it’s been another story.
Milton is a big, strapping athlete. Nicknamed “Bazooka Joe” for his rocket arm. Will provide strong rushing utility in the NFL.
The issue with Milton is you don’t know where the ball is going when it leaves his hands. Playing in one of the most proven quarterback-friendly systems in all of college football, one that offers one-on-one shots downfield on a silver platter, Milton had a big-time throw rate of 3.3 last fall, lower than noodle-armed NC State QB Brennan Armstrong.
Tennessee’s system, which cleaves the field in half and offers pre-delineated reads, didn’t help Milton’s issues under duress. Milton easily had the lowest adjusted accuracy percentage and PFF grade when blitzed of this Senior Bowl crop.
Milton has all-world tools, and for that reason is going to get drafted. But the accuracy, pocket presence, and decision-making issues that caused him to lose two starting jobs in six years – in 2020 to Cade McNamara at Michigan and in 2022 to Hendon Hooker at Tennessee – remain inherent to his game, making it all the more crucial that he has a big week .
Most to Gain: Michael Penix Jr. (Washington) and Bo Nix (Oregon)
There are three lock first-round quarterbacks: Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, and Jayden Daniels. Reasonable minds can disagree, but I believe JJ McCarthy will also ultimately go in Round 1. There are more than four NFL teams that desperately need a quarterback of the future.
Nix and Penix are going to be duking it out all process – along with McCarthy – for the QB4-6 designations. Whoever is ultimately QB4 is nearly assured of going in Round 1. It’s possible that QB5 could as well.
McCarthy will not be in Mobile. But Penix and Nix will. Not only that, but Senior Bowl czar Jim Nagy, in a delicious bit of symmetry, placed them on the same team so we could watch them throw side-by-side.
This sets up a battle royale between Penix and Nix this week for draft jockeying. Whoever wins that battle has a shot to go in Round 1. The loser probably does not.
A few thoughts on each heading into Mobile…
Penix: “Pocket-passing lefty with a live-wire arm. Engineered a cleverly-constructed Washington offense with three NFL wide receivers. Penix has the arm talent to fit the ball into tight windows – he has a highlight reel of bucket throws down the sideline, and lazering balls between multiple defenders into his receiver’s arms. Though he has an unorthodox motion, he can also get the ball out very quickly, and he doesn’t take sacks. In clean pockets, he was one of the nation’s most dangerous surgeons the past few years, calmly carving up each defense he faced. But there are also multiple red flags in his evaluation. Penix’s game craters when he is pressured and moved off his spot. This was the only reliable way to slow Washington’s offense the past few seasons, but even mediocre teams could do it if the pass-rush was up to the task. Penix lacks mobility, and his accuracy wavers when he doesn’t have his platform beneath him. For this reason, Penix is not a good fit for teams that seek mobility out of their quarterbacks, or who have a lot of bootleg concepts in their playbook. Penix also needs a sturdy offensive line in front of him. Because even though Penix doesn’t take many sacks – an admirable quality – he can be frazzled into mistakes when his first read isn’t there and heat is in his face. Washington’s offense often gave Penix a pre-delineated first read to go to, and many times he took it. When it wasn’t there, you’d see instances of ball-patting and indecision – Penix wanting to confirm a receiver was open before throwing, oftentimes leading to being a beat behind. Lastly, Penix’s accuracy comes and goes. While he has some of the prettiest throws in the class, he also has a propensity to overshoot targets. He has a lot of arm action in his delivery – lack of repeatable, natural mechanics leads to errant balls. In addition, medicals are a big concern following four-straight season-ending injuries at Indiana.”
Nix: “Former five-star dual-threat quarterback with five years starting experience. Provides strong rushing utility and will steal yards outside the pocket when you let him. Comes in off statistically dominant season (45/3 TD/INT). Nix’s accuracy numbers surged from around 60% his first three seasons at Auburn to around 75% the last two years at Oregon. He has improved as a passer, but he was also flattered by the offense he played in and the fleet of athletic playmakers that surrounded him. Last year, only three FBS quarterbacks had an average release time quicker than Nix – oftentimes, Nix was throwing to his first read immediately after the snap, be it an outside screen, a slant, or some other quick-hitting concept. His aDOT, by extension, ranked No. 93 in the FBS – two-thirds of his throws came within nine yards of the LOS. This scheme not only juiced his accuracy numbers, but it kept the ball out of harm’s way while inoculating Nix from pressure. All three of these things were issues at Auburn, and all three of them were addressed not necessarily by Nix improving as a player, but by the offensive scheme he played in. Nix has a solid arm, with heat-ring intermediate velocity throws on film. But his downfield passing has always lacked upper-level touch and accuracy, perhaps in part because he needs to throw the kitchen sink into getting it down there. The part of Nix’s improved accuracy that he can take credit for is the upper-body throwing motion – it’s very fluid and repeatable. However, his legs and feet can get a mind of their own, and when he’s errant, it’s often because the two aren’t married. At the NFL level, Nix is going to provide rushing utility, and his short-and-intermediate passing success from Oregon should more or less translate. But you can’t construct an NFL offense out of YAC yardage from quick-hitters on the perimeter like Oregon did, which means Nix is going to have to learn to stand in the pocket, survey his options longer, and pick and choose spots to attack downfield. Set to turn 24 in February, I’m dubious of his odds of becoming something in the NFL that we’ve never seen him be before.”
Mystery Man: Spencer Rattler (South Carolina)
Seems odd, doesn’t it? That for a five-star recruit that we’ve seen so much of, we still can’t quite put our finger on who Spencer Rattler actually is – or what he will become.
A short, aggressive pocket passer with a zippy arm, Rattler has plenty of experience – 2,676 snaps over five seasons. Rattler was done no favors by South Carolina’s terrible offensive line that ranked No. 107 in PFF pass block grade last year. What the NFL will appreciate about him is that he goes through his progressions and is comfortable with heat in his face. They’ll also appreciate his willingness and proven acumen testing NFL money zones, 10+ yards down the field between the hashes. Rattler prefers to play out of shotgun with the field spread, and he likes to move around to give himself better vantage points to throw. This was not a good fit behind uSC’s poor offensive line.
Rattler remains frustratingly inconsistent due to his live-by-the-sword-die-by-the-sword aggression. On days he isn’t seeing the field well and he’s running cold, he can be rotten. On days he’s feeling it, watch out. All the talent that made him the first handpicked quarterback Lincoln Riley had ever recruited out of high school and started remain. But so are the inconsistencies that lost him the job and found him at South Carolina.
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