Super Wild Card weekend is here, and there’s money to be made betting props this week. We have a plethora of juicy matchups to smash the overs for and some stingy defenses that should lead to some unders.
The first step to building to profiting this week, whether you’re straight betting any of these lines or constructing some juicy parlays, is to pull up our Prop Bet Analyzer at Bettingpros.com and then tail these bets and more by hitting my profile at BettingPros.
Enjoy another fantastic week of football with some NFL prop action. Enjoy the sweats, and let’s stack some cash this week.
Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value, & Star Rating
Joe Flacco o268.5 passing yards & o37.5 passing attempts
Joe Flacco has eclipsed both of these marks in four of his last five games. He should sail over both again this week. Houston has been a Swiss cheese pass defense, giving up the fifth-highest yards per attempt, the ninth-most passing yards, and the ninth-highest CPOE since Week 12.
Nico Collins o5.5 receptions
Collins is C.J. Stroud’s main squeeze. In the five games Collins has played this season where Tank Dell has been limited or absent, he has soaked up a huge piece of the passing pie with a 22.9% target share, a 31.6% air-yard share, 3.93 YPRR, and a 28% first-read share. Since Week 13, the Browns have utilized Cover 2 or Cover 3 on 51.8% of their defensive snaps. In the 13 games this season that Collins has played at 50% of the snaps, he has commanded a 31% TPRR against Cover 2 and Cover 3 with 3.9 YPRR. Collins will get fed again this week.
David Njoku o54.5 receiving yards
Njoku has been otherworldly, with Flacco averaging 78 receiving yards. Since Week 13, Houston has the third-highest rate of two-high (65.3%). In the 14 full games that Cooper, Elijah Moore, and David Njoku have played together against two-high, Njoku has had a 21.5% target share, 1.80 YPRR, and a 22.4% first-read share. Houston has allowed the fifth-most receiving yards to tight ends.
Noah Gray o1.5 receptions
This bet is plus money at nearly every book with some getting as high as +130. Gray has eclipsed this number in five of his last ten games and should go over it again this week. Since Week 13, Miami has utilized Cover 3 or Cover 6 on 53.6% of their defensive snaps. Since Week 12 against these coverages, Gray has had a 29% TPRR (third on the team) and 2.86 YPRR. Miami has struggled to defend tight ends all season.
Isiah Pacheco u65.5 rushing yards
If the Chiefs want to move the ball this week consistently, they should stick to their passing game, which leads me to hitting the under here for Pacheco. The Dolphins run defense has been an elite unit. Since Week 12, they have allowed the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game while also logging the eighth-highest stuff rate.
*All data utilized in this article is courtesy of Fantasy Points Data and BettingPros.com unless otherwise specified.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our Sports Betting Strategy and Advice page is for you. You can get started with our 101 section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced strategy — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.