The term “sleeper” is relative. I try to aim for players who are not being universally drafted or in deeper formats that can provide a clear path to profit.
Here are a few names that should check these boxes.
Average Draft Positions (ADP) cited are from our Consensus Fantasy Baseball ADP
Early 2024 Fantasy Baseball Draft Sleepers
Nick Pivetta (SP – BOS): ADP 194 Overall
Nick Pivatta shows glimpses annually but the second half production is eye-popping. A 3.30 ERA with a stellar 0.96 WHIP and underlying metrics suggest it was all legitimate. The K-BB% was elite and one of the best in the 2nd half (28.8%). The uptick in K% can be backed by the 39.1% O-Swing% and 14.9% SwStr%. It also came with a tangible change in his pitch mix. Less fastballs and more secondary pitches. Including the introduction of a cutter midseason.
Henry Davis (OF – PIT): ADP 347 Overall
This one is mostly because he will be very likely to gain catcher eligibility early into the season. There is some power, speed, prospect pedigree and a path for playing time as a catcher. No catcher going around him in ADP has his upside and that alone is worth the gamble.
Taylor Ward (OF – LAA): ADP 245 Overall
Oh, how the mighty have fallen. But there is no reason for it either. Ward is going outside the top 200 in early drafts and is essentially the same player he was entering 2023. People might have forgotten he missed the rest of the year after taking a pitch to the face (thanks, Alek Manoah). But ultimately, Ward was figuring things out right before that injury and now enters 2024 healthy with a top-of-the-order lineup spot in hand.
First month of the season:
- 125 PA
- .208/.320/.311
- .289 wOBA
- 79 wRC+
- 7.4% barrel%
- 35.8% hard hit%
- 43.8% GB%
From May 1 on:
- 248 PA
- .272/.342/.468
- .347 wOBA
- 119 wRC+
- 8.5% barrel%
- 46.8% hard hit%
- 39.8% GB%
Matt Brash (RP – SEA): ADP 251 Overall
If you are waiting for saves, this could be a great fallback option. Between the potential for an Andres Munoz trade or injury, brash should be the next man up. At the very least he will pitch high-leverage spots and can stack up wins and fall into saves on occasion as well. This past year he had nine wins and four saves, and this role can produce similar outcomes with a chance for more saves with less competition for them this year. Brash has electric stuff and can be an elite reliever.
Parker Meadows (OF – DET): ADP 314 Overall
Here is a player with some tools and could get to a 20 HR/20 SB season if everything goes right. He projects to lead off against RHP at the very least which can help him get the volume to reach these outcomes. He consistently posts double-digit walk rates and roughly 25% strikeout rates. Strikeouts could cause some issues but not something to be overly concerned about. Meadows limited chases (27.3% O-Swing%) and limited swing-and-miss (9.4% SwStr% and 24% whiff%). There are skills to like and a path to playing time.
Fun stat on Meadows:
Parker Meadows showed growth in plate discipline to finish out the year. It was a small sample but caught my eye. Over the final three weeks of 2023
- 88% Z-Contact
- 8.5 SwStr%
- 28% O-Swing%
- K% cut down to 22.9% while having a 10.5% BB%
- 10.2% barrel%
- 33.3% GB% and 42.9% pull%
Boring can be beautiful
These are players going late with known track records of production that can be “set and forget” types in deeper formats.
Anthony Rizzo (1B – NYY): ADP 262 Overall
Looked great before the concussion. Should factor into the middle of the Yankees’ lineup.
Max Kepler (OF – MIN): ADP 292 Overall
Annually under-appreciated. There is a path to almost everyday playing time. Some power to go with it. Great fifth outfielder in deep leagues.
J.P. Crawford (SS – SEA): ADP 236 Overall
Went to Driveline last year. Had a career year. Is back at Driveline again this offseason. He leads off and is a solid player. Great MI option in deeper formats.
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