The 2023 MLB season is in the books, but it’s never too early to look ahead to the upcoming campaign. While much of the MLB landscape is sure to change over the offseason, it can be helpful to get an early sense of where the experts stand in terms of initial fantasy baseball rankings. We’ll have you covered as we approach the spring and new season. Let’s take a look at a few players in the area of the draft I’m terming the starting pitcher dead zone.
2024 Fantasy Baseball
Kodai Senga (NYM): ECR 69 | SP19
In his first season in MLB, Kodai Senga struck out 202 batters in 166 1/3 innings. He had an impressive 29.1 K% and 2.98 ERA. However, his xERA was almost an entire run higher (3.87), and his BB% was a disappointing 11.1. Fantasy managers should expect more of the same in 2024. He will strike out around 10 per nine, but walks and home runs will remain problematic. Senga falls right in that early-middle rounds window, where he is much more appealing as long as you have already grabbed your SP1.
Eury Perez (MIA): ECR 74 | SP22
Eury Perez started 19 games for the Marlins and gave every fantasy manager a glimpse of how incredible he could be. He struck out 108 in 91 1/3 innings with a 3.15 ERA and 1.13. His fastball velocity sits in the 94th percentile at 97.5, and he had a 33.7 Whiff%. Batters had a difficult time with his breaking stuff, but they touched up his four-seamer more than ideal. Expect Perez’s ERA to jump a notch into the 3.80 to 4.00 range, but he should continue striking out 10 per nine. Hopefully, the 20-year-old can limit the hard contact and home runs in 2024, but he is definitely in SP2 territory.
Bobby Miller (LAD): ECR 78 | SP23
Bobby Miller throws hard. He has a fastball velocity in the 98th percentile (98.9 mph), and the speed did not transfer to a high Whiff%. The 24-year-old started 22 games for the Dodgers, and he should have no issue sliding into their 2024 rotation. And it won’t be hard to justify anyone wearing a Dodgers uniform this year. His ERA is projected to sit around 4.00, but the win equity and solid pitching organization give him slightly more upside. If you feel the need for speed, he’s your guy. But if you feel the need for strikeouts, he doesn’t offer a ton. He slots in as an SP3/4.
Jesus Luzardo (MIA): ECR 93 | SP26
Jesus Luzardo was on a lot of 2023 sleeper lists, and he lived up to the billing. He struck out 208 batters in 178 2/3 innings with a 3.58 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. Heading into his age-26 season, he is stretched out and ready to throw 180+ innings in 2024. Luzardo should stay north of 10 K/9, and even though there is some risk in him being prone to walks and home runs, he is a high-upside starter who can fill an SP3 slot comfortably.
Kyle Bradish (BAL): ECR 96 | SP27
Kyle Bradish had an excellent 2023 campaign. He struck out 168 batters in 168 2/3 innings, with a beautiful 2.83 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. He should come with a bit of a warning for 2024, though. His xERA was 3.82, and a low .270 BABIP added a heavy filter to his Insta-worthy stats. Bradish’s four-seam fastball got lit up by batters (.563 SLG), and he will need that to improve to accompany his elite slider, which induced a 36.4 Whiff%. Chances are high he will go before the eighth round in your drafts, but reaching earlier than that is risky.
Justin Steele (CHC): ECR 122 | SP30
Justin Steele was in the NL Cy Young conversation for much of the 2023 season, finishing fifth when all was said and done. The 28-year-old had an elite BB% (5.0), and batters struggled to barrel up his pitches. He has hovered in the 24% K-rate for each of his three seasons, but last year’s 1.17 WHIP is due for some regression in 2024. Steele is a difficult pitcher to assess, but he should serve as a nice SP3 at his current ADP.
What is Fantasy Baseball?
Fantasy baseball is an online game where participants act as managers of virtual baseball teams based on real-life Major League Baseball (MLB) players. The performance of these players in actual games determines the results in the fantasy league. It’s a blend of skill, strategy, and a little bit of luck, akin to the real-world decisions team managers must make.
Basic Strategy for Fantasy Baseball Success
1. Understand Your League’s Format and Scoring
Before drafting your team, it’s essential to understand the scoring system and rules of your specific league, as this will influence your drafting and management strategy. Knowing whether you’re in a points-based, category-based, or head-to-head league will guide you in selecting players whose strengths align with the scoring system.
2. Drafting Your Team Wisely
A solid draft is the foundation of a successful season. Here are a few tips for the drafting phase:
- Balanced Team: Ensure you have a balanced team with a mix of power hitters, average hitters, speedsters, starting pitchers, and relievers.
- Position Scarcity: Be aware of the depth of talent at each position. Some positions, like shortstop, may have fewer high-quality players, making it beneficial to draft a top player at that position early.
- High-Floor Players: Early in the draft, focus on players with a proven track record of consistency.
- Upside Picks: In the later rounds, look for “upside” players. These are athletes who have the potential to outperform their draft position.
3. In-Season Management
- Stay Active: Constantly look for ways to improve your team through waivers, trades, and free-agent pickups.
- Mind the Matchups: Pay attention to player matchups, platoon splits, and ballparks. Starting a pitcher in a hitter-friendly park, for example, can be risky.
- Injury Management: Stay on top of player injuries and have backups ready for your key players.
Check out our early 2024 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit 
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
