5 Top NFL Player Prop Bet Picks: Conference Championships (2024)

The Conference Championship is here, and there’s money to be made betting props this week. Let’s dive into the two-game Sunday NFL conference championship slate. Here are our staff’s favorite prop bet picks for Chiefs vs. Ravens and Lions vs. 49ers.

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NFL Conference Championship Round Player Prop Bet Picks

Lamar Jackson UNDER 208.5 passing yards

This isn’t about a lack of confidence in Jackson’s passing ability. This is more about the Chiefs’ defense and how the Ravens want to play. Kansas City allowed the fourth-fewest passing yards per game (197.2) during the regular season and the third-fewest yards per pass attempt (6.0). The Chiefs gave up just 186 passing yards to Josh Allen and the Bills last week even though Allen threw 39 times. The Chiefs are much easier to run on than to throw on, ranking 27th in DVOA vs. the run and fifth in DVOA vs. the pass. The Ravens, meanwhile, are the run-heaviest team in the league, throwing on 49% of their offensive snaps during the regular season. Jackson had 27 or fewer pass attempts in eight of his last 11 games. Jackson could have a good, efficient game as a passer and still fall short of this yardage total simply because Baltimore really wants to run the ball.

– Pat Fitzmaurice

I am leaning heavily toward the under on Lamar Jackson‘s passing yardage set at 211.5 passing yards (now all the way down to 207.5 at some books). The Chiefs’ defense has held Tua Tagovailoa and Josh Allen to sub-200 yard passing yards the last two weeks. No QB their first team defense has faced in the last four weeks has gone for more than 200 yards through the air.

– Andrew Erickson

Lamar Jackson OVER 64.5 rushing yards

Kansas City allowed the 10th-most rushing yards to quarterbacks in the regular season. Jackson’s rushing equity has been ramped up in the playoffs. In five career playoff games, he has surpassed 54 rushing yards four times while posting at least 100 rushing yards three times.

– Derek Brown

Conversely, I want to take the over on Jackson’s rushing yards prop set at 63.5 rushing yards. The Chiefs have faced the most rushing attempts and red-zone touches from QBs this season.

– Andrew Erickson

Rather take the MORE THAN on Jackson's rushing yards at 63.5…

– The Chiefs have faced the most rushing attempts from QBs this season.

— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) January 23, 2024

Isiah Pacheco OVER 63.5 rushing yards

In the final six weeks of the regular season, the Chiefs’ offensive line was steamrolling opponents, ranking eighth in adjusted yards before contact per attempt and Fantasy Points’ rush grade. Look for Pacheco to be leaned on this week. The biggest weakness in the Ravens’ defense has been against the run. Since Week 13, they have allowed the ninth-highest explosive run rate, the 10th-most missed tackles per attempt, and the third-highest yards before contact per attempt.

– Derek Brown

Starting running back Isiah Pacheco rushed for nearly 100 yards (97) averaging 6.5 yards per attempt, 1 touchdown, long of 29 yards, while catching his lone target for 14 yards. He played 72% of the snaps last week.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire had 2 attempts, 31 yards, averaging 15.5 yards per attempt, long of 28 yards.

I expect Pacheco to keep getting fed as a rusher, so I am looking at the over on his 64.5 rushing yards prop this weekend. Pacheco has 89-plus rushing yards in three straight games and 60 or more in 6 of his last 8 games played.

Also love the over on Pacheco’s 14.5 rushing attempts. Gone over in three straight games and 7 of his last 8 games. At +100 odds and with a projection in the Prop Bet Cheat Sheet set at 16 carries, you need to be all OVER this player prop.

– Andrew Erickson

David Montgomery OVER 43.5 rushing yards

It’s interesting that Montgomery’s teammate, Jahmyr Gibbs, has the higher rushing total at 47.5 yards. Montgomery out-snapped Gibbs 41-26 last week against the Buccaneers and 30-19 in the Lions’ playoff opener against the Rams. Montgomery also out-carried Gibbs in both games, 10-9 vs. the Buccaneers and 14-8 vs. the Rams. I don’t mind the over for Gibbs either, but with a greater workload and a lower bar to clear, Montgomery is my preferred play. He’ll face a 49ers defense that’s been uncharacteristically vulnerable against the run. Green Bay’s Aaron Jones gashed the Niners for 108 rushing yards last week, and the Arizona trio of James Conner, Emari Demercado and Michael Carter lit up the 49ers for 177 rushing yards in Week 15. The San Francisco run defense ranks 15th in DVOA this season. I wouldn’t make this bet if the Lions were going to be without outstanding center Frank Ragnow, who sprained his ankle and knee last week, but Ragnow is expected to play.

– Pat Fitzmaurice

This line opened at 52.5 rushing yards and has been bet down. This is an easy over. Montgomery has eclipsed this mark in eight of his last ten games. In the playoffs, he has averaged 57% of the snaps played with 14 touches and 57.5 total yards. He ranks 16th in missed tackles forced per attempt and tenth in yards after contact per attempt. Detroit should lean on their backfield this week. Since Week 13, San Francisco has allowed the seventh-highest explosive run rate, the sixth-highest missed tackles per attempt, and the ninth-highest yards after contact per attempt.

– Derek Brown

George Kittle OVER 60.5 receiving yards

Kittle is averaging 80.5 receiving yards over his last 11 games and cleared this number in eight of those contests. He’s also averaging a whopping 17.4 yards per catch over that span, consistently racking up huge yardage once he has the ball in his hands. The rowdy tight end will be facing a Lions defense that gave up the eighth-most receiving yards to tight ends during the regular season and just gave up 65 receiving yards and a touchdown to Buccaneers TE Cade Otton last week. San Francisco WR Deebo Samuel is questionable with a shoulder injury, and even if he’s able to play, he won’t be at 100%. That might force 49ers QB Brock Purdy to lean even more heavily on Kittle than usual. With Samuel sidelined for most of last week’s win over the Packers, Kittle had 81 receiving yards and a touchdown. Smash the over here.

– Pat Fitzmaurice

Kittle has hit the over for receiving yards for this mark in seven of his last ten games. He also hit the over for receptions in both games, which Deebo Samuel missed this season. If Samuel plays, I will back off the over for his receptions, but the over for his receiving yardage is still a strong bet. Kittle should be second in line to attack Detroit’s single high coverage this week. Since Week 17, Detroit has utilized single-high with 53.7% of their defensive coverage snaps. Against single-high, he has a 20.4% target share, a 24.1% air-yard share, 2.77 YPRR, and a 22.8% first-read share. In the regular season, Detroit allowed the seventh-most receiving yards per game to tight ends.

– Derek Brown

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