The 2023 MLB season is in the books, but it’s never too early to look ahead to the upcoming campaign. While much of the MLB landscape is sure to change over the offseason, it can be helpful to get an early sense of where the experts stand in terms of initial fantasy baseball rankings. We’ll have you covered as we approach the spring and new season. Let’s take a look at a few potential fantasy baseball draft busts to avoid.
2024 Fantasy Baseball Draft Busts to Avoid
Manny Machado (3B – SD): ECR 55 | ADP 43
Manny Machado had a down year by his standards and by the standards of fantasy managers who took him early in 2023 drafts. In 138 games, he hit 30 home runs and drove in 91, which is in line with his career average. However, his batting average (.258) and OBP (.319) did not hold up their end of the bargain. Of course, neither did the Padres All-Star lineup. According to Statcast, he is right around average in Batting Run Value, which should drop his draft cost considerably, and his counting numbers may not hold steady with the departure of Juan Soto in the offseason. When you take into consideration the overall increase in talent at 3B and couple it with an aging Machado (he will turn 32 in July), there may be better value on the board in 2024.
Cody Bellinger (1B/OF – FA): ECR 43 | ADP 68
Cody Bellinger notably outperformed expectations with a .307/.356/.525 slash line against a predicted .270/.331/.437. Currently a free agent, Bellinger presents a challenge for fantasy managers, with caution advised due to the typical decline following a standout season. While a 20/20 season is plausible, managers should temper expectations for a repeat of his 2023 performance.
Zac Gallen (SP – ARI): ECR 42 | ADP 36
Zac Gallen had a dominant 2023 and finished third in the NL Cy Young race. The 28-year-old tossed 210 innings and struck out 220 with a 3.47 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. If we include the postseason, Gallen threw 243 2/3 innings, 60 innings more than his previous high. He gave up a lot of hard contact, and his xERA was 4.16. Gallen’s xFIP was 3.49 on the plus side, and he continued to strike out more than one batter per inning. Gallen is a risky SP1, and his cost (currently in the third round) looks pretty high, given all the red flags heading into 2024.
Emmanuel Clase (RP – CLE): ECR 47 | ADP 38
Emmanuel Clase led all of baseball with 44 saves, and he did so with a 7.93 K/9. His secret is a GB% of 56.6, which is in the 93rd percentile. His ERA, however, took a precipitous jump from 1.36 to 3.22. If you’re planning to use an early-round draft pick on a closer, there are three Tier 1 guys before Clase, who seems a bit more of a risk in 2024.
Esteury Ruiz (OF – OAK): ECR 124 | ADP 128
Esteury Ruiz, known for his significant stolen base numbers, presents a challenge for fantasy players. Despite an impressive 67 steals last year and a projected 50 this season, his overall performance raises concerns. Ruiz’s advanced metrics, including xwOBA, xSLG, and hard hit rate, are notably low. His strikeout rate is decent, but his inability to draw walks limits his value. While he’ll have ample opportunities to play for a non-competitive team, relying on him primarily for steals in fantasy baseball might come at a steep cost, given his limited contributions in other areas.
What is Fantasy Baseball?
Fantasy baseball is an online game where participants act as managers of virtual baseball teams based on real-life Major League Baseball (MLB) players. The performance of these players in actual games determines the results in the fantasy league. It’s a blend of skill, strategy, and a little bit of luck, akin to the real-world decisions team managers must make.
Basic Strategy for Fantasy Baseball Success
1. Understand Your League’s Format and Scoring
Before drafting your team, it’s essential to understand the scoring system and rules of your specific league, as this will influence your drafting and management strategy. Knowing whether you’re in a points-based, category-based, or head-to-head league will guide you in selecting players whose strengths align with the scoring system.
2. Drafting Your Team Wisely
A solid draft is the foundation of a successful season. Here are a few tips for the drafting phase:
- Balanced Team: Ensure you have a balanced team with a mix of power hitters, average hitters, speedsters, starting pitchers, and relievers.
- Position Scarcity: Be aware of the depth of talent at each position. Some positions, like shortstop, may have fewer high-quality players, making it beneficial to draft a top player at that position early.
- High-Floor Players: Early in the draft, focus on players with a proven track record of consistency.
- Upside Picks: In the later rounds, look for “upside” players. These are athletes who have the potential to outperform their draft position.
3. In-Season Management
- Stay Active: Constantly look for ways to improve your team through waivers, trades, and free-agent pickups.
- Mind the Matchups: Pay attention to player matchups, platoon splits, and ballparks. Starting a pitcher in a hitter-friendly park, for example, can be risky.
- Injury Management: Stay on top of player injuries and have backups ready for your key players.
Check out our early 2024 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit 
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
