Both the NFL Draft and dynasty rookie drafts begin in Mobile, Ala., as the annual Reese’s Senior Bowl kicks off this week. Who are the players to watch throughout the week of practice and the game that managers should begin to circle for their upcoming drafts?
Let’s break it down!
- 2024 Senior Bowl Guide
- DBro’s 2024 Senior Bowl Primer: RB
- DBro’s 2024 Senior Bowl Primer: QB
- DBro’s 2024 Senior Bowl Primer: TE
- DBro’s 2024 Senior Bowl Primer: WR
2024 NFL Senior Bowl Players to Watch & Dynasty Rookie Draft Targets
Quarterback
In early 2024 superflex dynasty rookie drafts, Caleb Williams is the clear No. 1 overall selection, with Marvin Harrison Jr. checking in at the 1.02 in the majority of mock draft scenarios. From there, Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels are both “personal preference” selections for the 1.03, with Maye edging out the Heisman winner more often than not.
While the top three signal-callers are firmly set to go in the top six, the next Group of three QBs, Bo Nix, Michael Penix Jr. and J.J. McCarthy, are very much in flux regarding their draft slot and order of selection. Nix has been going in the early second in most mocks I’ve seen, with McCarthy and Penix Jr. roughly 50/50 in terms of who goes next shortly thereafter. We will benefit from seeing both Penix and Nix, side-by-side, in Mobile, which will likely decide which signal-caller is the preferred option of draft prognosticators.
However, there is another QB that I’m just as excited to see compete: Tulane QB Michael Pratt.
Michael Pratt (Tulane) | 6’2.4/220
A small-school signal caller, Pratt outdueled Heisman-winning QB Caleb Williams in a stunning 46-45 upset victory over the defenseless USC Trojans in the 2023 Cotton Bowl.
Although he sat out the first few games, Pratt posted an emphatic year-one breakout by leading all FBS freshman quarterbacks with 20 touchdown passes. He achieved this feat despite working with an inept WR corps that posted a jaw-dropping 18.1% drop rate with Pratt at the helm. This was by far the worst drop rate of any quarterback in the nation that year, with Dillon Gabriel finishing a distant second with a 13.6% drop rate. Though Tulane opened up 0-3 in the first three games under his tutelage, Pratt finished the regular season strong by accounting for three or more total touchdowns in six of his last eight games while winning three of their final four regular-season contests. Tulane’s field general earned a 73.4 PFF overall grade and flashed legitimate dual-threat ability by rushing for 229 yards and an opportunistic eight touchdowns.
The sky appeared to be the limit heading into year No. 2, with new OC Chip Long coming in fresh off a stint at Notre Dame. However, despite the 10 returning offensive starters from a team that averaged 34.7 PPG, the Pratt/Long pairing quickly dissolved into an oil-and-water situation. Pratt battled multiple debilitating injuries throughout the campaign yet still dutifully churned out 12 starts en route to a disastrous 2-10 finish. Even with the malignancy of Long’s brief stand at Tulane afflicting his performance, Pratt was still able to increase his completion rate (54.9%-57.6%), yards per attempt (7.1-to-7.3) and pressure-to-sack rate (27%-to-22%). However, he took a hit in the PFF metrics, plummeting from a 73.4 overall grade in 2020 to 56.2 while sporting a ghastly 13-to-22 BTT-to-TWP ratio.
Clearly, head coach Willie Fritz and the rest of the Green Wave were eager to turn the page. They did so by hiring a known commodity in veteran OC Jim Svoboda, who had spent the previous 12 years as the head coach of Central Missouri (137-62) and serving as the OC of UCLA back in 2005. The effect was instantaneous, with Pratt leading Tulane to the AAC Championship before defeating USC to finish with a 12-2 record. Long’s departure brought forth a renaissance, as Pratt increased his completion rate by six percentage points (57.2%-to-63.2%) and his NFL Passer Rating from 90.6-to-111.9 while slashing his turnover-worthy play rate from 5.2%-to-1.7%.
Pratt entered the season with plenty of hype after his signature Cotton Bowl performance. He once again delivered despite sustaining an injury in the first game of the season against South Alabama, when he expertly dissected the Jaguars’ defense by going 14-of-15 for 293 yards, 19.5 yards per attempt (!) and four touchdowns. He would, unfortunately, miss their non-conference tilt against Ole Miss but returned after two games to lead Tulane to an undefeated AAC regular season. This was followed by a conference championship game loss to SMU, the lone demerit on Pratt’s 2023 report card. New OC (his fourth in four years) Slade Nagle encouraged Pratt to increase his downfield passing output from 12.9% of his throws going for 20+ yards to 18.7% this year (14th-highest deep rate in FBS) with a 45.3% deep completion rate (12th). OC Nagle’s more vertical approach resulted in a full two-yard spike in Pratt’s ADOT, from 8.9-to-10.9 yards per attempt. Bringing in Notre Dame WR Lawrence Keys to pair with Senior Bowl invitee WR Jha’Quan Jackson and redshirt freshman sensation Chris Brazzell II (who just transferred to Tennessee) helped Pratt cut his drop rate from 11.2%-to-6.6%.
Pratt’s arm talent and athleticism are both above average, but his ability to navigate the pocket under duress is where he really stands out. His outstanding 99.4 NFL Passer Rating under pressure ranked third nationally behind only McCarthy and Florida QB Graham Mertz, while his 68% adjusted completion rate under pressure ranked eighth in FBS.
Pratt’s steely resolve when things are breaking down around him is a trait that translates extremely well to the next level. That’s especially appealing for risk-averse NFL teams that are more than ever looking to roster dependable backup quarterbacks with upside after the barrage of injuries to prominent signal callers this season. While he doesn’t profile as an elite prospect in the mold of Williams/Maye/Daniels, Pratt is the clear QB7 who has an outside shot at getting picked before one of the next three QBs Nix/Penix Jr./McCarthy as the QB6 with a blistering Senior Bowl showing.
Running Back
I feel like everyone in this year’s RB class is vying to be the first RB selected, with a wide variance between the contenders and where they are likely to be drafted. In early dynasty fantasy football rookie-only drafts, Texas RB Jonathan Brooks has been the consensus first rusher off the board, ACL injury be damned, with FSU RB Trey Benson taking the top spot for more risk-averse drafters that don’t want to wait for Brooks to get healthy.
However, beyond the very top, the rankings are extremely subjective this early in the process before draft capital is assigned. Here are the RBs I’m most excited to evaluate in Mobile this week:
Jaylen Wright (Tennessee) | 5’11/210
Jaylen Wright is a top-five RB for me and a player I aggressively targeted in College Fantasy Football (CFF) dynasty and redraft leagues despite being considered the nominal UT RB2 behind Jabari Small. He was clocked at 21.6 MPH, the second fastest mark by an SEC rusher behind only Ole Miss’ Ulysses Bentley (22.0 MPH). A true home-run threat, Wright averaged 7.4 YPC with a 91.0 PFF overall grade and a staggering 35 rushes of 10+ yards, which ranked 20th nationally, in just 136 carries (25.7% = No. 1 in FBS). For perspective, of the 19 players who eclipsed Wright’s 35 10+ yard rushes, the lowest number of carries it took to reach that mark was 188, 52 more than Wright.
He averaged an exceptional 4.35 yards after contact (eighth in FBS) while reeling in 22-of-25 targets for a 1.33 yards per route average (39th). I also like that Wright logged 10.2% of his snaps in the slot, showing HC Josh Heupel’s faith in Wright’s ability to contribute in the passing game. Unfortunately, Wright has an upper-body injury that will keep him out of action at the Senior Bowl, but he should run at the Combine.
MarShawn Lloyd (USC) | 5’9/210
Marshawn Lloyd was a high four-star recruit who originally committed to South Carolina and had his freshman year taken from him with a torn ACL. He came along slowly in his return from injury, logging just 64 carries in 2021 at 3.6 YPC, but surged in 2022 by rushing 110 times for 565 yards, 5.1 YPC and nine touchdowns to go with a solid 83.7 run grade and 4.05 YAC. With his ACL now in the rear-view mirror, USC head coach Lincoln Riley seized on Lloyd’s frustration of being in a three-man committee and brought him to SoCal for the 2023 season.
Lloyd proceeded to rip off 816 rushing yards on just 115 carries (7.1 YPC) with nine touchdowns and an 87.2 run grade over 10 games. He broke 47 tackles for a sensational 41% broken tackle rate and 177.1 PFF elusiveness rating (4th in FBS). His 4.3 YAC was a top-10 mark, and he also sported the nation’s highest yards per reception for a running back (17.8).
Lloyd has a speed/power combination to his game that belies his 210-pound frame, as he’s strong enough to finish runs with a helmet to a defender’s chest but still has the requisite acceleration to pop off chunk gains. He’s also made noticeable strides in the receiving game after being an afterthought in that department for his entire South Carolina tenure.
I think Lloyd has enough skill to carve out a starting role in the NFL, but he will need to prove he can handle a 200+ carry workload over a grueling 17-game NFL season, as he’s never topped 115 carries in a season to date.
Kimani Vidal (Troy) | 5’8/218
A favorite of my colleague Thor Nystrom for his CFF contributions, Kimani Vidal led the nation with 295 carries and 1,661 rushing yards this season for the Sun Belt Conference Champion Troy Trojans. The squat, low-center-of-gravity bowling ball ranked second in FBS with 94 broken tackles and boasts the highest pass block grade in the 2024 NFL Draft RB class. Ninety-one career receptions on 112 targets (81.3% catch rate) for 693 receiving yards shows that Vidal has the aerial chops to handle what is asked of him in the passing game.
Vidal uses his lack of height as a weapon, slipping underneath arm tackles while having the advantage of coming from underneath in the majority of his leverage encounters. It’s difficult to knock Vidal off his line when he has a head of steam, and he has surprising contact balance for a runner with his build. The Troy bell cow has quick, discerning feet when sifting through traffic and is adept at attacking tackler’s edges. He’s not a blazer, though, and could run in the 4.7s range as far as his 40-time, potentially limiting his usage out of the backfield and pegging him for a two-down pounder role. Vidal has some buzz heading into camp, but he also has much to prove on Mobile’s big stage.
Isaiah Davis (South Dakota State) | 6’1/220
The SDSU standout amassed 1,578 yards on 6.7 YPC and 18 touchdowns with a pristine 94.6 PFF run grade. So you can understand why Senior Bowl Director Jim Nagy would extend an invite to Isaiah Davis on production alone. Davis also posted a 33% broken tackle rate with 3.96 YAC and a ridiculous 54 rushes of 10+ yards, thoroughly dominating the FCS level.
A big, physical one-cut back, Davis runs headlong into the line with controlled aggression but manages to keep his feet underneath him and stave off defenders with a probing stiff arm. He finishes with authority to the extent you could see the weariness of his opponents trying to tackle him in the fourth quarter. Fluid hips and a keen sense of spacing help him navigate the interior and squeeze extra yards out of each run.
Davis can run high at times, such is life as a 6’1 running back, which can cause him to run outside his frame and stumble. He gets in trouble when he tries to stop/start and can get caught running into a pile instead of finding another path. Though he isn’t a natural pass-catcher, Davis showed enough on tape that I’m intrigued by his body of work and am excited to get eyes on him this week.
Wide Receiver
Marvin Harrison Jr. is the prodigal son of the great Hall-of-Fame WR Marvin Harrison, sidekick to Peyton Manning. He is the crown jewel of this class and one of the best WR prospects in the last decade. He should go no later than 1.03 in superflex drafts, and 1.01 is defensible for QB-laden teams who have the luxury of passing on Williams. LSU’s Malik Nabers is a superstar in his own right who is entrenched as the WR2 in the 1.03-1.05 range. Rome Odunze is the 2024 WR3 and the last “sure thing” in the bunch, going off the board in the 1.05-1.07 ballpark. Everything from Odunze down is essentially up for debate, with Brian Thomas Jr., Xavier Worthy, Keon Coleman, Adonai Mitchell and Troy Franklin leading the next group.
There are a number of wide receivers from the most loaded Senior Bowl in history that I’m gassed up to evaluate. It’s a big class, but here are several names to keep tabs on heading into Senior Bowl Week:
Ladd McConkey (Georgia) | 5’11/185
In 2022, I made a near mint off Ladd McConkey’s artificially low CFB player prop lines, with the technically refined wideout working his way open with regularity thanks to a dizzying array of tricks. Though he was hampered early on, McConkey once again thrived with new QB Carson Beck under center, catching 30-of-37 targets (81%) with a 3.26 yards per route average that ranked eighth nationally.
His release package is NFL-ready, and McConkey is a maestro at working the Cover 2 hole shot, routinely getting three-plus yards of separation out of his razor-sharp cuts. A tireless competitor, he goes just as hard selling his routes on run plays as on pass plays. McConkey routinely wins on the outside with expert defensive manipulation tactics despite his 5’11/185 frame, causing a handful of defenders to fall down in their attempts to cover him and contributing mightily to his strong 27% missed tackle rate. I’ve got a Round 2 grade on McConkey, but I haven’t had the pleasure of seeing him ply his craft in person yet.
Javon Baker (UCF) | 6’1/208
A former top-five, four-star wide receiver recruit who attended Alabama for the first two years of his collegiate journey, Javon Baker played only sparingly during his time in Tuscaloosa, receiving just 11 targets. He transferred to UCF, where head coach Gus Malzahn immediately heaped 100 targets on him in 2022, with Baker catching 56 for 706 yards and five touchdowns with a 71.9 PFF receiving grade and 2.0 yards per route average.
After getting his bearings as a starter in 2022, Baker entered this season as UCF’s co-No. 1 WR alongside Kobe Hudson before quickly establishing himself as the alpha of the Golden Knights’ WR room. A deep threat of the first order, Baker led all Power Five wideouts in yards per reception at 21.9. Of the 33 1,000-yard FBS wideouts, he needed the second-fewest targets to get there with 85 (USC WR Tahj Washington needed the fewest targets at 74).
An impressive 35% of his targets this year were 20+ yards downfield, with Baker reeling in 15-of-30 (50%) for 574 yards and a near perfect 99.9 PFF deep grade. He even led the nation in contested deep catch rate, catching 6-of-8 deep contested targets for a sparkling 75% success rate. He was so effective at stretching the field that 76% of his total targets were at least 10+ yards down range, enhancing his 3.21 yards per route average that ranked eighth in FBS. If there’s a persistent issue with his profile, it’s Baker’s troubling 11.4% career drop rate.
Despite his big-play value, Baker flexes impressive acceleration for his size. He also broke a respectable 19 tackles over the last two seasons, showing he has the power to break away from defenders. His short-to-intermediate range footwork is better than I expected, given his deep-ball specialist reputation. Baker is rocked up with proportions similar to Emeka Egbuka but with a more refined long game than Egbuka, making him a very intriguing evaluation at the Senior Bowl.
Devontez Walker (North Carolina) | 6’2/200
Devontez Walker is a transfer from Kent State who missed the first month of the season due to an eligibility kerfuffle with the NCAA. A fifth-year player, he was out of football for two years before playing a collegiate snap, finally breaking out in 2022 with 58 receptions, 921 yards, 15.9 YPC and 11 touchdowns at KSU. After getting cleared, Walker played in eight games while serving as Drake Maye’s primary deep threat, with 35% of his targets occurring 20+ yards downfield, which is tied with Odunze for the highest deep target rate in the 2024 WR class (Baker is No. 1 at 35.3%).
Walker excels when stretching the field vertically on the outside, where he utilizes advanced ball tracking and tenacity at the catch point to outmuscle defenders so his late hands can pluck the ball out of the air downfield on sideline go-routes. However, beyond his big-guy, go-deep skill set, Walker’s game is incomplete. He frequently got undercut on his intermediate routes because his breaks were too rounded. He also only broke a paltry two tackles on 41 receptions, contributing to his uninspiring 2.8 yards after contact average. Throw in a pedestrian PFF receiving a grade of 68.3, and I’ve got some real concerns about Walker’s ability to be a complete receiver at the next level. I’m skeptical about the buzz he has been receiving and will be watching him intently.
Malachi Corley (Western Kentucky) | 5’10/210
A converted running back who is stoutly built at 5’10/210, what Malachi Corley lacks in route running savvy, he makes up for by bullying opponents into YAC yardage. His 5.5 ADOT is the lowest in the class, and his vibes are positively Rondale Moore-esque if you ask my FantasyPros colleague Derek Brown. And let’s face it, Corley is a YAC machine designed to gouge defenses with extended handoffs, as his 8.6 YAC this year (fourth in FBS) and 9.7 YAC (third) in 2022 will attest. His 19% broken tackle rate is on display on the various hitches/screens/slants schemed up in the air-raid system at Western Kentucky.
Peeling back the layers, though, there’s reason for concern with Corley’s NFL projection. He only secured 13-of-49 career contested targets for a pedestrian 26.5% contested catch rate. Also, 495 of his 985 receiving yards this year came against three opponents: Louisiana Tech, Sam Houston State and Troy. He lacks nuance in his breaks and seems like he’s running to a spot when asked to extend his route tree. Despite straight line speed, Corley’s feet tend to drag into more pronounced breaks. I have my doubts about Corley becoming an every-down, impactful fantasy performer, but he certainly has manufactured-touch potential.
Here are a few other wideouts I’m excited to see in person at the Senior Bowl:
Tight End
Brock Bowers has been the golden child of the Devy TE position since he had a true freshman breakout season like no other TE in history, catching 56-of-71 passes (79%) for 882 yards and 13 TD for the national champs. He is the clear TE1 and trending as, at worst, the 1.07 in rookie drafts. Texas TE Ja’Tavion Sanders is locked in as the consensus TE2 and is being selected in the 2.03-2.10 range in early drafts. Neither will be in Mobile, with Kansas State TE Ben Sinnott trending as the current TE3 and marquee Senior Bowl TE from a fantasy perspective.
Here are two potential tight end sleepers I’ll be watching:
Jared Wiley (TCU) | 6’7/260
Jared Wiley spent his first three years at Texas as a sub-package tight end blocked in the pecking order by 2024 NFL Draft TE2, Ja’Tavion Sanders. He transferred over to TCU just in time for their magical 2022 National Championship game run, starting five games as the preferred inline tight end (87% of snaps inline), catching 24-of-29 targets for 246 yards and four touchdowns.
Wiley built on a promising 2022 by making an incredible one-handed diving touchdown reception in the season opener against Colorado. The giant but nimble TE emerged this year by catching 47-of-65 targets for 520 yards, and 72.3% catch rate and eight touchdowns while increasing his slot rate from 10.6%-to-32.4% and even logging 6.2% of his snaps out wide, showing the confidence head coach Sonny Dykes had for Wiley’s ability to win on the outside if called upon.
He earned a PFF receiving grade of 90.0 or more to all four levels this season, a rare feat for tight ends, and has a near-perfect 1.1% career drop rate. Given his size and very commendable pass-blocking record, where he hasn’t given up a sack or hit in the last four seasons – spanning 132 pass reps – Wiley has both the blocking and receiving chops to be in consideration for a lion’s share role if he can shine in Mobile.
Theo Johnson (Penn State) | 6’6/264
The Penn State tight end legacy is one to be respected, though paradoxically, the Penn State offense under the tutelage of now deposed OC Mike Yurcich was objectively NOT to be respected. Such was the quandary TE Theo Johnson found himself in this season, splitting time in 12 personnel alignments with fellow TE Tyler Warren while being saddled with Penn State’s plodding offense that ranked 129th in offensive explosiveness and 127th in completion rate of 20+ yards (11%).
While Johnson is athletic and sure-handed, he isn’t a natural when extending outside of his frame to make tough catches. Not a field stretcher, Johnson caught two-of-five downfield targets for a total of 46 yards with a middling 67.2 receiving grade. He excels in tight window situations, bringing in six-of-nine career contested targets (67% catch rate), and earning a rock solid 139.9 NFL passer rating when targeted over his career. The gravitas of the Nittany Lions TE position somehow resulted in Brenton Strange earning a late-second-round pick last season, so you have to keep tabs on a big, well-rounded tight end like Johnson as the Draft approaches.
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