This past week, we revealed 10 players whose slumps led to lower fantasy numbers in 2023 than we can expect in 2024. This week, we’ll look at the other side of the coin and lay out 10 players who aren’t likely to duplicate their production from this past year. This doesn’t mean they’re undraftable at the right price. It means you shouldn’t take them anticipating a repeat performance.
Once again, we’ll look at five hitters and five pitchers. For each, we’ll start with their 2023 VBR, fantasy production, and four other stats that support an impending drop-off. If any of the terminologies is new to you, take a look at FantasyPros Sabermetrics Glossary for definitions.
10 Players Who Won’t Repeat Their 2023 Seasons (2024 Fantasy Baseball)
Hitters Destined to Decline
2023 Hitter VBR: 20
| AVG | RUNS | HRS | RBI |
| .268 | 101 | 28 | 86 |
| BB% | K% | BABIP | xBA |
| 5.3% | 25.8% | .325 | .254 |
Thomas ranked as the 20th-best fantasy hitter in 2023 thanks to stellar run production, 20 stolen bases and a decent average. The power and speed could repeat, but don’t expect him to hit .268. Thomas benefitted from a very high BABIP this past season and isn’t helped by a low walk rate and a high strikeout rate. Expect his average to dip, which could also limit the runs he scores and stolen bases. He should be drafted as a third outfielder, not the top-10 outfielder he was in 2023.
2023 Hitter VBR: 24
| AVG | RUNS | HRS | RBI |
| .330 | 95 | 22 | 78 |
| HR/FB | BABIP | xBA | xSLG |
| 17.7% | .367 | .301 | .479 |
Diaz is a very good hitter. He walks often, rarely strikes out and has a career 6.9% SwStr% – which is excellent. However, he will probably not hit .330 again, and 22 home runs are also unlikely. Diaz benefitted from a .367 BABIP in 2023, which took his average from around .300, a la his xBA, to a batting title. In addition, he hit eight homers more than his previous career high of 14, aided by a well above-average HR/FB ratio of 17.7%. Twelve of the 22 came in the season’s first two months, bolstered by another five in September. During the middle three months, he only mustered five dingers. In addition, Diaz lost 3B eligibility in many leagues, making him a middle-of-the-pack first baseman.
2023 Hitter VBR: 25
| AVG | RUNS | HRS | RBI |
| .292 | 71 | 20 | 83 |
| BB% | K% | BABIP | xBA |
| 6.2% | 24.8% | .357 | .277 |
Lowe is young and broke out in a big way in 2023. On top of the numbers above, he stole 32 bases, which boosts his fantasy value. The concern is with his batting average. Lowe hit .292 in 2023 despite striking out approximately 25% of the time. He’s never been a high-average hitter, even in the minors. He profiles closer to a .250 hitter, though he may be able to generate more walks based on his history, which could keep his OBP in a decent place. Lowe is an interesting young player with upside, but given the risk and the Rays’ propensity for platoons, be wary of drafting him anywhere close to his 2023 VBR.
2023 Hitter VBR: 50
| AVG | RUNS | HRS | RBI |
| .279 | 73 | 18 | 66 |
| xBA | xSLG | Barrel% | HardHit% |
| .240 | .321 | 3.2% | 27.4% |
Friedl is a late bloomer who took advantage of his first opportunity as an everyday player last season. He stole 27 bases on top of the 18 homers and a robust .279 batting average. Unfortunately, Statcast isn’t a fan, as he doesn’t make good contact. His Barrel% and HardHit % were among the worst in MLB. Statcast indicates his batting average was highly inflated, as were his SLG% and wOBA. Fantasy managers should treat Friedl as a cheap source of stolen bases in 2024 drafts, not the player who had a higher VBR than Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B – TOR), Manny Machado (3B – SB) and Bo Bichette (SS – TOR) in 2023.
2023 Hitter VBR: 63
| AVG | RUNS | HRS | RBI |
| .250 | 71 | 31 | 98 |
| HR/FB | xBA | Barrel% | HardHit% |
| 16.9% | .226 | 5.9% | 28.3% |
Our final hitter is our third Ray (purely coincidental) and another slugger who came out of nowhere in 2023. How many people know that Paredes hit 31 HRs and drove in nearly 100 runs in 2023? Incredible! He was a diamond in the rough that helped many fantasy managers to league titles this past year. However, much like Friedl, he doesn’t make good contact, and unlike TJ, he’s not fast. Thus, his average could plummet from an already mediocre .250, making him a potential liability in fantasy lineups. Draft him as a multi-positional reserve with power, but don’t be surprised if he hits in the low .200s this year.
Pitchers Destined to Decline
2023 SP VBR: 4
| ERA | WHIP | WINS | K/9 |
| 2.25 | 1.19 | 14 | 11.7 |
| BB% | BABIP | LOB% | xERA |
| 5.0% | .256 | 87% | 3.77 |
If you’re wondering why Snell remains unsigned after winning his second Cy Young in 2023, it could be because general managers aren’t sure what to make of him. Snell’s ERA has ranged from 3.24 to 4.29 between his two Cy Young campaigns and his WHIP from 1.20 to 1.32. His 5% walk rate was the worst in the NL this past season among pitchers who threw more than 100 innings, and he benefitted from a low BABIP and a high LOB%. Snell is excellent at generating strikes but has always been wild, providing him with a razor-thin margin for error. He’s capable of being great, as he’s shown, but also terrible. Where he ends up could also affect his value, but even if it’s in another pitcher-friendly ballpark, be wary of drafting him high.
2023 SP VBR: 8
| ERA | WHIP | WINS | K/9 |
| 2.83 | 1.04 | 12 | 9.0 |
| HR/FB | LOB% | HardHit% | xERA |
| 10.2% | 79% | 42% | 3.82 |
After his 11th start of the season, on June 8, Bradish’s record stood at 2-2, accompanied by a 4.25 ERA. He had performed about as expected – as a mid-rotation starter with good and bad outings. Over the next 19 starts, Bradish went 10-5 with a 2.18 ERA, elevating himself to fantasy elite status. Did the 26-year-old starter turn a corner, or did he merely have a lucky stretch? We lean towards the latter. He doesn’t throw particularly hard or miss many bats, and his BB% is near the league average. He did an excellent job stranding runners and keeping the ball in the park this past season, which may regress. Batters made good contact against him, and his xERA was a run higher per game. Consider him a third or fourth starter come draft day, not a No. 1.
2023 SP VBR: 29
| ERA | WHIP | WINS | K/9 |
| 3.22 | 1.16 | 14 | 8.3 |
| HR/FB | BABIP | LOB% | xERA |
| 9.1% | .266 | 80% | 4.30 |
Wacha came out of nowhere to have one of the best seasons of his career in 2023. Besides a mediocre K%, he rewarded fantasy owners who gambled and added him off the waiver wire. He leveraged his strong season into a two-year deal with the Royals in December, who don’t play in as friendly a park for pitchers as the Padres, albeit one that limits the long ball. Wacha’s numbers this past year drew an assist from a low BABIP and HR/FB ratio and a high LOB%. He doesn’t miss many bats, has an average walk rate, and his xERA was over a run higher than his ERA last season. Wacha’s career has been so up and down it’s hard to know what to expect from him in 2024. The prudent option is to take him as a back-end starter (at best) and hope he can keep it going.
2023 SP VBR: 50
| ERA | WHIP | WINS | K/9 |
| 3.14 | 1.14 | 9 | 5.9 |
| HR/FB | BABIP | LOB% | FIP |
| 11.7% | .234 | 82% | 4.69 |
Miley isn’t going to help your strikeout totals, and he only pitched past the sixth inning twice this past season. Thus, he needs to post a stellar ERA and WHIP to help your fantasy team, as he did in 2023. He is certainly capable of this, as his ERA has been under 4.00 the past three seasons, but it’s not something you want to bank on. A low BABIP and HR/FB%, high LOB%, and 4.69 FIP suggest he’s more likely to regress than repeat. Plus, he turned 37 in the offseason, and injuries have limited him to 31 starts over the past two seasons. So if he’s sitting there towards the end of your draft and you think that 3.14 ERA from last year looks nice, think again and draft a risky player with upside.
2023 RP VBR: 32
| ERA | WHIP | SAVES | K/9 |
| 3.76 | 1.30 | 28 | 8.2 |
| xERA | SwStr% | BLOWN SAVES | HardHit% |
| 4.83 | 11.0% | 8 | 47.5% |
Finnegan’s 28 saves in 2023 were the 13th-most in baseball, and his eight blown saves were the third-most. Finnegan’s other fantasy-related stats – a middling ERA, high WHIP and modest K% didn’t help his managers. His only value came from the saves; if anything, he was lucky to post an ERA as low as he did. Washington simply didn’t have many other options to close games. Hunter Harvey (RP – WAS) pitched his way into a committee by mid-season, but Finnegan still got most of the opportunities. This season, the Nats have more options. Harvey is back, and Tanner Rainey (RP – WAS) returns from 2022 Tommy John surgery. Washington also added Dylan Floro (RP – WAS) this offseason. Finnegan will get an opportunity but not nearly as much leeway to hold onto the job.
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