Players typically shouldn’t be avoided at all costs, and most of the following pitchers are worth drafting if they fall beyond their average draft position (ADP). The idea of this piece is to highlight pitchers overvalued enough that gamers should fade them in the proximity of their ADP. However, an opportunity cost exists for using a roster spot on a player. So, even though the last featured pitcher has a cheap ADP and name value, he’s a lousy selection in 12-team mixed leagues or shallower.
Pitchers to Avoid
George Kirby (SEA – SP) – 47.3 ADP
According to the value-based ranking (VBR) metric, Kirby was the ninth-best pitcher in 2023. His ADP is 10th among pitchers this season. At a glance, that seems reasonable.
Unfortunately, Kirby’s underlying data didn’t quite align with his surface stats last season. According to FanGraphs, Kirby’s 3.35 ERA was lower than his 3.82 xERA, 3.63 xFIP and 3.71 SIERA. Furthermore, all of his ERA estimators were worse in 2023 than in 2022.
In addition, the young righty’s strikeout rate shrunk from 24.5% in 2022 to 22.7% in 2023. Kirby doesn’t have an elite putaway pitch. So, his strikeout rate in 2023 is likely a better gauge for his 2024 outlook than his 2022 mark. Kirby is a talented pitcher who can chew up innings. Regardless, he should be in the same ADP bucket as Max Fried (57.3 ADP), Framber Valdez (60.3) and Logan Webb (62.5) instead of roughly a round ahead of them.
David Bednar (PIT – RP) – 84.0 ADP
Bednar had a career-low 2.00 ERA in 66 appearances and 67.1 innings last season. However, his 3.86 xFIP was his highest since breaking out with the Pirates in 2021, and his 2.84 xERA split the difference between his 2.51 xERA in 2021 and 3.22 xERA in 2022.
Additionally, Bednar had a 32.7 K%, 31.1 CSW% and 1.04 WHIP in 112.1 innings from 2021 through 2022 before dipping to a 28.9 K%, 29.0 CSW% and 1.10 WHIP in 2023. Even with good luck last year, Bednar was the 40th-ranked pitcher, making his 27th-ranked pitcher in ADP a grossly inflated price. Pittsburgh’s closer’s profile isn’t befitting a top-100 pick.
Bobby Miller (LAD – SP) – 84.3 ADP
Miller is the poster child for disliking a player’s ADP but not the player. The 24-year-old hurler has an electrifying arm and a bright future. Among pitchers with a minimum of 120 innings in 2023, Miller had the fifth-highest Stuff+ (123) and the third-highest Pitching+ (110). The pitch-modeling data was elite.
Yet, Miller’s 23.6 K% and 28.2 CSW% were more good than great. The young hurler’s changeup was his best offering for missing bats, sporting a 17.2 SwStr% last season. However, his slider (13.3 SwStr%) and curveball (13.3 SwStr%) were decent instead of dominant.
Strikeouts aren’t everything. Miller’s 3.76 ERA, 3.45 xERA, 3.75 xFIP, 3.93 SIERA and 1.10 WHIP were also solid if unspectacular, though. Miller should take a step forward this season. Sadly, he’ll also probably face an innings limit after throwing a career-high 138.2 in 2023. Moreover, LA has championship aspirations and must build in playoff innings for Miller. He’s undoubtedly an ascending talent, but his ADP is rich.
Dylan Cease (CWS – SP) – 90.3 ADP
After a brilliant season in 2022, Cease’s production cratered in 2023. The righty’s 4.58 ERA was unlucky. Still, his 4.07 xERA, 4.08 xFIP and 4.10 SIERA weren’t anything to write home about. After consecutive seasons with a strikeout rate north of 30.0%, Cease had a 27.3 K% in 2023. Unfortunately, he also had a 10.1 BB%.
Cease gave up harder contact than in previous campaigns, and his 29.9 CSW% in 2022 slipped to 29.1 CSW% in 2023. Moreover, hitters stopped chasing pitches out of the strike zone as frequently (35.5 O-Swing% in 2022 and 31.6 O-Swing% in 2023) while attacking more pitches in the strike zone (67.9 Z-Swing% versus 70.4 Z-Swing%). Cease has too many red flags to warrant a top-100 pick.
Justin Verlander (HOU – SP) – 101.5 ADP
Verlander will turn 41 before the season. At first blush, the veteran righty’s 3.22 ERA in 2023 suggests he was able to defy Father Time. However, Verlander’s 3.69 xERA, 4.56 xFIP and 4.43 SIERA were signs of a substantial decline for the long-time ace.
Digging deeper is even more unflattering for Verlander. He had a 27.8 K%, 4.4 BB%, 11.6 SwStr% and 26.5 CSW% in 2022 before slipping to a 21.5 K%, 6.7 BB%, 9.9 SwStr% and 25.9 CSW%. It’s better to get out a year early than to be left holding the bag when a veteran pitcher has a cliff season. The warning signs for Verlander were there last year. Gamers should let someone else take a chance on Verlander for a near-top-100 choice.
Paul Sewald (ARI – RP) – 116.0 ADP
Sewald was rock solid last year. Unfortunately, his production eroded after he was traded to the Diamondbacks. In 20 appearances spanning 17.2 innings for Sewald on the Diamondbacks, he had a 3.57 ERA, 4.92 xFIP, 4.34 SIERA, 1.47 WHIP, 12.5 BB%, 25.0 K% and 24.9 CSW%.
He didn’t assuage concerns in the playoffs, either. In 10 appearances lasting 10.0 innings, Sewald had a 5.40 ERA, 4.00 xFIP, 2.68 SIERA, 1.20 WHIP, 6.7 BB% and 35.6 K%. Obviously, his walk and strikeout rates were better. Nevertheless, Sewald isn’t worth reaching 10-plus picks ahead of the next wave of closers.
Chris Bassitt (TOR – SP) – 141.3 ADP
Bassitt’s 3.60 ERA in 2023 was slightly worse than his 3.42 ERA in 2022. The gap between his ERA estimators was starker. Specifically, the veteran righty had a 3.46 xERA, 3.72 xFIP and 3.75 SIERA in 2022 before posting a 4.04 xERA, 4.21 xFIP and 4.25 SIERA.
In addition, Bassitt’s velocity was down last season from 2022, and his bat-missing and called strikes suffered, with his 29.2 CSW% in 2022 declining to 28.0% in 2023. Bassitt has an unexciting profile filled with more downside than upside at this point in his career.
Kenley Jansen (BOS – RP) – 143.0 ADP
The end is near for Jansen. The former stud closer pitched only 44.2 innings in 51 appearances last season. The veteran closer had a career-high 4.61 xFIP, a career-low 22.6 GB%, a career-high 1.28 WHIP, a career-low 27.7 K% and a career-low 28.6 CSW%. He’s a ticking time bomb.
Cristian Javier (HOU – SP) – 150.5 ADP
Javier had good fortune as a starter and reliever for the Astros in 2021 before a more legitimate breakout in 30 appearances (25 starts) in 2022. Sadly, Javier couldn’t maintain momentum.
In 31 starts spanning 161.0 innings last season, he had a 4.56 ERA, 4.48 xERA, 5.16 xFIP, 4.76 SIERA, 1.27 WHIP, 9.8 BB%, 23.1 K% and 25.2 CSW%. Javier’s swinging-strike rate plummeted from 13.8% in 2022 to 11.4% in 2023. He also had fewer looking strikes.
The bad news didn’t end there. According to FanGraphs, Javier had an average fastball velocity of 93.9 mph in 2022 but dipped to 92.8 mph in 2023. Javier must strike out batters at a high rate and walk fewer hitters to make his extreme fly-ball approach (25.6 GB% in 2023) work. Until there are positive reports about Javier recapturing velocity on his fastball, he shouldn’t be drafted within the top 175 picks.
Lucas Giolito (BOS – SP) – 219.3 ADP
In 63 starts spanning 346.0 innings since 2022, Giolito has had a 4.89 ERA, 4.08 xFIP, 4.01 SIERA, 1.37 WHIP, 9.0 BB%, 25.5 K%, 93 Stuff+, 101 Location+, 99 Pitching+ and 28.9 CSW%. If his pitch-modeling data weren’t dreadful, it would be easier to spin a story about Giolito’s ERA regressing to his ERA estimators.
Moreover, Giolito started for three organizations during that period, and his numbers worsened after he joined new clubs. Thus, a change of scenery is a tough sell for being the magic elixir, saying nothing of the hitter-friendly park factors at Fenway Park. Giolito isn’t worth wasting a roster spot on in 12-team mixed leagues or shallower.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.