Every year, it’s fun to sit down, do your research, and figure out which guys you like for the upcoming fantasy baseball season. We all have our favorites, whether it’s someone from your favorite team that you know is going to blow up this year or someone you’ve been watching closely that’s trending in a positive direction. Keying in on those guys can be a crucial part of distinguishing yourself between a fantasy baseball player and a fantasy baseball champion.
Another big differentiator is focusing on the guys you want to avoid. There are caveats to this, however. While you may dislike a player for burning you a time or two (I’m looking at you, Tommy Edman), it’s important to understand that you can only avoid players to a certain point. Much of this should be ADP-based, although you can also avoid players based on not believing in hype or potential outcomes.
A prime example of this would be Luis Robert Jr. You may love Robert Jr. the player, but when it comes to fantasy baseball, you just can’t fathom drafting a player with big injury concerns as your third round pick. Fully understandable. But now let’s say it’s the sixth round and Robert Jr. is still there for some reason. At that point, it becomes a smart draft pick. Your “Do Not Draft” list needs to have limitations, at least for guys who are earlier-round picks.
That said, I’ve compiled my list of 10 hitters I’m avoiding this season. Let this serve as a guide to help you emerge from draft season with rosters you’ll love. Let’s get into it!
10 Hitters To Avoid (2024 Fantasy Baseball)
Daulton Varsho (OF – TOR)
Varsho is currently carrying an ADP of 214 in January drafts over on NFBC, which makes him a later-round selection, but he’s the one player I’m avoiding at all costs, regardless of whether or not he slips in drafts. The hype around Varsho started in Arizona, when he showed he was a power-hitting catcher with speed. Those didn’t exist outside of a guy like JT Realmuto.
Now fast forward to 2024 and Varsho has lost the biggest thing that made him fantasy-relevant: catcher eligibility. Without that eligibility, Varsho becomes a 20-home-run guy who’ll likely steal around 15 bases and hit slightly over the Mendoza line. That skill set is something you can find from another player without needing to spend so much draft capital on a guy with essentially no upside. He is who he is and it’s an average fantasy baseball outfielder at best. He is worth avoiding.
Elly De La Cruz (SS/3B – CIN)
I understand how polarizing of a player De La Cruz is. Trust me. And to be honest, I love him just as much as anybody. I want to see this kid thrive in Cincinnati and become the next face of baseball. The problem for me comes from the fact that his current ADP of 23 is just too steep for a guy with legitimate contact and batting average concerns.
Here it all is in one video.
Elly De La Cruz drives in the go-ahead run. Then steals 2nd 3rd and home on 2 pitches.
WHAT?!
— Ben Verlander (@BenVerlander) July 8, 2023
He has the upside to be the number one overall player in fantasy baseball. Not many players have that and I’m not doubting it in any way. But it’s fair to question how sustainable the production will be from a switch hitter with a 33.7% strikeout rate. He also struggles mightily as a right-hander and his quality of contact numbers declined down the stretch with just a 71.6% contact rate. The ceiling is enticing, but his floor is too low for me to risk it.
Royce Lewis (3B – MIN)
Two words: injury concerns. Saying that feels like beating a dead horse at this point, but that doesn’t make it any less true. Royce Lewis put on a power display in his time in the majors and even the minors last season. Lewis has also played a grand total of 118 games at any level since 2019. That is a massive red flag, especially for someone being drafted in the fourth round or even as high as the 22nd pick.
As I said, the power is legitimate and easy to get excited about. His 11.7% barrel rate and 90.2 MPH average exit velocity were well above league average, as were the 21 home runs he hit in just 70 games. But there should be concern about the fact that much of his hype came from hitting four grand slams in 17 games. A wild occurrence, and not something he or anyone else can easily replicate.
Third base has enough excellent guys going after him (like Alex Bregman, Josh Jung, and Spencer Steer) so let someone else inherit the risk with Lewis.
Cody Bellinger (1B/OF – FA)
While his addition to my “Do Not Draf” list does have a bit to do with the fact he’s still unsigned, it has more to do with the fact that I’m not sold on the production. Bellinger has had quite the career; he came out guns blazing to begin and then essentially bottomed out in 2021 and 2022. He ended up with a solid 26/20 season to bounce back in 2023, but is it sustainable?
At pick 55 as the 15th outfielder off the board, he’s likely your OF2 unless you waited, and then he’s closer to your OF1. It’s tough to count on a guy to repeat when his underlying metrics suggest he overachieved the year prior. His 87.9 MPH average exit velocity, 109 MPH max exit velocity, 87.6 MPH fly ball velocity, and 5.9% barrel rate all suggest those home run numbers could very well regress, especially if he ends up in a much less hitter-friendly ballpark. There are just too many question marks for me to be comfortable drafting Cody Bellinger as likely one of my top two outfielders.
JT Realmuto (C – PHI)
Believe it or not, catcher is actually a fairly deep position in 2024. Gone are the days of needing one of the top two guys in order to get any production from the position. As it sits right now, there are 16 catchers that I think will put up starter-worthy production this year. So using your sixth-round pick on any catcher feels like a reach, let alone a catcher whose higher value is mainly predicated by his ability to steal bases. Steals are now cheaper than they’ve ever been.
Realmuto isn’t bad by any means. He’ll put up great, productive numbers this season like he always has. His 2023 season was arguably the second-best of his career, after going 20/16 while hitting .252 in that great lineup. But there are just so many great catchers getting drafted much later. Yainer Diaz and Cal Raleigh, for example, are my current C6 and C5. They’re being drafted 3-5 rounds later. Save yourself from being the guy who took a catcher early and capitalize on the later-round production.
Xander Bogaerts (SS – SD)
I was out on Bogaerts last season, and I’m very out on Bogaerts this season. Many of my concerns came from the fact that he seems like the prototypical “I hit really well at Fenway” guy and honestly, that wasn’t far off in 2023. Bogaerts came out of the gate hot in his first 29 games, then proceeded to hit .244 with a .666 OPS through his next 425 plate appearances. He had just 26 XBH in that timeframe. Had it not been for his outrageous September production, where he hit .417, we’d be having a completely different conversation about him right now.
Lowest Swing Rates against pitches right down the middle
1. Ha-Seong Kim 63%
2. Xander Bogaerts 63%
3. Nico Hoerner 63%
4. DJ LeMahieu 64%
5. Kyle Schwarber 64.5%
6. Bryson Stott 65%
7. Adley Rutschman 65%
8. Steven Kwan 66%
9. Wilmer Flores 66%
10. Max Muncy 66.5%— Jon Anderson (@JonPgh) January 17, 2024
Outside of the fact that he’s not nearly as productive as he once was, he plays a premier fantasy position. There are currently 13 shortstops going within the top 108 picks and 16 going within the top 136. Taking a low-ceiling player like Bogaerts diminishes your value when you have plenty of better options readily available. Add in that he’s now playing in a lineup without Juan Soto and the risk is even greater for Bogaerts losing counting stats. This isn’t 2018/2019 Xander anymore. Let someone else have him.
Esteury Ruiz (OF – OAK)
This one hurts to write, because I think he is incredibly fun to watch and follow throughout the season. He honestly has a real possibility at 100 stolen bases this year, should he manage to play in 150 games. The issue is that he’s a one-trick pony who isn’t even really average at anything else. Two years ago, someone who could get on base and steal 70 bases with their eyes closed may have been a top-50 pick. Nowadays, stolen bases are so cheap that even the elite options hold less value.
Playing in Oakland doesn’t help either. Their lineup is probably the worst in baseball, top to bottom. So even though he limits strikeouts, hits around .250, and steals bases at a tremendous rate, he’s still likely going to score under 50 runs and drive in even fewer while also hitting single-digit home runs. If you’re in a category or rotisserie league and have punted on steals for the first ten rounds, then maybe he’s worth a pick. But otherwise, he just doesn’t do enough to justify being taken within the top 120 picks.
Cedric Mullins (OF – BAL)
Cedric Mullins has slowly become less of a fantasy asset as each season ticks by. Gone are the 30/30 days of 2021 when the baseball world was Mullins’ oyster and he could do no wrong. Here are the days of Mullins being a top-150 pick who likely won’t hit .250 and is projected 18 home runs and 27 stolen bases. Starling Marte is projected to go 14/30 this season and can be drafted 70 picks later.
Don’t draft mid-level guys in the top 150 hoping that they can one day get back to their former selves, especially if that former self was from two healthy seasons ago. Mullins saw his batting average drop by over 20 points for the second straight season, plus he has an average exit velocity and barrel rate well below league average. His flyball rate (49%) and pull rate (46.8%) are those of a guy who needs to hit the ball with authority to be successful. Mullins is now a speedster who hits soft flyballs, which is not a recipe for success.
Steven Kwan (OF – CLE)
For all the hype that Steven Kwan had heading into the 2023 season, you’d think he would have put up some pretty special numbers. Instead, he took a slight step back and moved himself into “what is he really contributing to my team?” territory outside of points leagues. He makes great contact, at 91.1% for his career, and he scores a good amount of runs (182 in two seasons), but that didn’t correlate to any form of fantasy-relevant production.
He certainly does shine in points leagues. His low strikeout rate and ability to get on base lend themselves well to a high points league output. The problem is outside of that, he’s becoming a guy who’s a better real-life baseball player than fantasy baseball asset. Combine that with the fact that arguably better options are being drafted right around him (Lars Nootbaar, Kerry Carpenter, and Christopher Morel, to name a few) and there’s little reason to feel like Kwan is an absolute must-draft player.
Luis Robert Jr. (OF – CWS)
As I alluded to in the opener, Robert Jr. is on my “Do Not Draft” list. Maybe you’re thinking, “But he just had a monster season where he went 38/20. There’s no way you should avoid him!” And trust me, I get it. Robert Jr.’s addition to the list comes almost exclusively from the fact that drafting someone with that much injury risk in the first three rounds makes me nervous. A big key to winning leagues is locking down big-time performers early on and nailing the later rounds. If one of your early-round picks misses significant time due to injury, you’re in a big hole.
Luis Robert Jr. cranks his 4th home run in three games.
He ranks 2nd in the AL in HR. pic.twitter.com/KkVYc48lBk
— MLB (@MLB) June 27, 2023
The talent of Robert Jr. has never been in question. He was once baseball’s top prospect for a reason. He flashed a great hit tool, power, and speed early on in his career, but for the first three years, he never cracked 100 games played. He finally did in 2023, playing 145 games, but he still ended the year on the IL with an MCL sprain. Some guys just seem prone to nagging injuries and Robert Jr. has yet to prove that he’s not one of them. If you’re drafting someone as an OF1, it needs to be someone trustworthy. Robert Jr. isn’t trustworthy of third-round status quite yet.
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