Derek Brown | Fri, Dec 29th 2023, 6:40am EST

The Primer: Week 17 Edition (2023 Fantasy Football)

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Seattle Seahawks

SEA -3.5, O/U 41.5
Steelers vs. Seahawks Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

Last week the name of the game didn’t change for Pittsburgh as they had the third-slowest neutral pace and the fourth-highest neutral rushing rate.
Since Week 10, Seattle ranks seventh in neutral pace and fifth in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Mason Rudolph: Rudolph draws another start this week. Last week, he was the QB13 in fantasy, finishing with 290 passing yards, two scores, and 10.7 yards per attempt. His deeper accuracy metrics tell the tale better, as he ranked 20th in CPOE and 33rd in highly accurate throw rate. Rudolph drew a great matchup against a struggling Cincy secondary, and he took advantage of it. Kudos. He could do the same this week against a Seattle pass defense that has had some lapses in recent weeks. Since Week 11, Seattle has allowed the tenth-highest yards per attempt and the 13th-most passing touchdowns, and it ranks 16th in adjusted completion rate. Week 17 Positional Value: QB2

Geno Smith: Smith has been a QB2 for most of the year. Since Week 10, among 42 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 16th in yards per attempt, 10th in passer rating, eighth in highly accurate throw rate, and 20th in fantasy points per dropback. Smith faces a Pittsburgh secondary that has shown some vulnerability since Week 11, ranking 14th in yards per attempt, 10th in passing touchdowns, and seventh in adjusted completion rate. Smith is a strong QB2 who could surprise in Week 17. Week 17 Positional Value: QB2

Running Backs

Najee Harris: Harris is the RB35 in fantasy points per game this season, ranking 25th in weighted opportunities and 31st in red zone touches. Since Week 12, he has averaged 16.1 touches and 59.1 total yards while trouncing Jaylen Warren in red zone usage (14 opportunities vs. Warren’s seven). Harris ranks 29th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 25th in yards after contact per attempt. He is staring down a Seattle run defense that, since Week 11, has allowed the ninth-highest explosive run rate, the third-most rushing yards per game, and the highest rushing touchdown rate. Week 17 Positional Value: RB2/3

Jaylen Warren: Warren has seen his fantasy star fade in recent weeks. This isn’t because he simply stopped breaking tackles or performing well when given opportunities. Nope. The Steelers just turned back to their former first-round draft pick. Since Week 12, Warren has only had seven red zone opportunities versus Harris’s 14 while averaging 13 touches and 55.8 total yards. He still blows the league out of the water in tackle-breaking metrics, ranking fourth in explosive run rate and yards after contact per attempt and third in missed tackles forced per attempt. With limited touchdown equity and volume, his ceiling is capped weekly unless he breaks off a long run for a touchdown. Since Week 11, Seattle has allowed the ninth-highest explosive run rate, the third-most rushing yards per game, and the highest rushing touchdown rate. Week 17 Positional Value: RB3

Kenneth Walker III: Walker didn’t practice this week until Friday when he managed a limited session (shoulder/illness). He has been deemed a game-time decision. With this Seattle backfield unclear this week (assuming Walker plays), I would shy away from Walker and Zach Charbonnet in lineups. If Walker gets ruled out, fire up Charbonnet as an RB2/3 based on projected volume. Since Week 11, Pittsburgh has allowed the eighth-fewest rushing yards per game, the fifth-lowest rushing touchdown rate, and the ninth-lowest explosive run rate.

Wide Receivers

Diontae Johnson: Johnson is the WR44 in fantasy with six games this season as a WR2 or better. He had been living the good life, walking a thin tightrope until the bottom fell out last week. He had finished with touchdowns in three straight games until he posted a scoreless two receptions and 15 receiving yards last week. This week could be more of the same, with George Pickens leading the way. Since Week 11, Seattle has had the third-highest rate of Cover 3 (43.3%). Since Week 7, against Cover 3, Johnson has led the way with a 25.5% target share and 31.8% first-read share, but he ranks second in air-yard share to Pickens with 40.7%, and he has only produced 1.47 YPRR. These are all amazing usage metrics. He has also drawn all three end zone targets for the team since Week 7 against Cover 3. Since Week 10, Seattle has ranked 17th in receiving yards while allowing the 13th-lowest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Week 17 Positional Value: WR3

George Pickens: Pickens finally awakened from his slumber last week. Prior to last week, he had only one top 36 wide receiver finish since Week 8 with seven weeks as the WR43 or lower. After last week’s blowup, he ranks 18th in receiving yards, 16th in yards after the catch, and 13th in deep targets. Since Week 11, Seattle has had the third-highest rate of Cover 3 (43.3%). Since Week 7, against Cover 3, Pickens has ranked second to Johnson in target share and first-read share with 20.4% and 25.8% marks, but he leads the team with a 46.1% air-yard share and 3.14 YPRR. If Pickens hits again this week, it will be for another big game. Since Week 10, Seattle has ranked 17th in receiving yards while allowing the 13th-lowest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Week 17 Positional Value: WR3

D.K. Metcalf: Metcalf popped up with a back issue on Wednesday, and he didn’t practice the rest of this week. Pete Carroll has stated that it’s just back stiffness, and Metcalf is expected to play. Metcalf is the WR19 in fantasy points per game, ranking ninth in deep targets and fourth in red zone looks. He is 19th in receiving yards and 22nd in yards after the catch. Since Week 11, Pittsburgh has the seventh-highest rate of single high (59.6%). Since Week 9, against single high, Metcalf has had a 25.2% target share, a 45.7% air-yard share, 2.73 YPRR, and a 32.3% first-read share. Not only is Metcalf’s back an issue, but also his possible shadow coverage matchup with Joey Porter Jr. (46.8% catch rate and 65.7 passer rating). Porter Jr. has been stout for most of the season, but Tee Higgins crushed him in Week 16, securing four of his seven targets for 126 yards (one score) while seeing Porter Jr. on 78.4% of his routes. Week 17 Positional Value: WR2

Tyler Lockett: Lockett has enjoyed a nice mini resurgence with WR2 finishes in two of his last three games (WR17, WR22). Overall, he is the WR38 in fantasy points per game, ranking 27th in deep targets and 32nd in red zone looks. Since Week 11, Pittsburgh has the seventh-highest rate of single high (59.6%). Since Week 9, against single high, Lockett has a 21.6% target share, a 24.8% air-yard share, only 1.79 YPRR, and a 24.2% first-read share. He has only one end zone target in this span against single-high. Since Week 10, Pittsburgh has allowed the 10th-fewest PPR points per target and the 11th-lowest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Week 17 Positional Value: WR3

Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Smith-Njigba could be primed for another big game this week. He has WR3 or better finishes in three of his last four games (WR25, WR24, WR34). Since Week 12, he ranks second in designed targets, behind only Rashee Rice. Seattle is trying to get the ball in their talented rookie’s hands. Since Week 11, Pittsburgh has the seventh-highest rate of single high (59.6%). Since Week 9, against single high, Smith-Njigba has a 16.5% target share, 1.96 YPRR (YES!), a 21.2% first-read share, and three end-zone targets (second on the team). Since Week 10, Pittsburgh has allowed the second-most PPR points per target and the seventh-most receiving yards to slot receivers. Week 17 Positional Value: WR3

Tight Ends

Pat Freiermuth: It’s impossible to start Freiermuth this week with any shred of confidence in Championship week. He goose-egged the boxscore last week in a wonderful matchup. In five of the six games since his return, he has failed to secure more than four receptions or churn out more than 30 receiving yards. Not to mention, he hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 3. Week 17 Positional Value: Sit

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver Broncos

DEN -5.5, O/U 38.5
Chargers vs. Broncos Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

With Stick under center, the Chargers have ranked 19th in neutral pace and 16th in neutral passing rate.
Over the last two weeks, Denver has been ninth in neural pace and eighth in neutral passing rate. We’ll see if they continue to operate in this fashion with a new quarterback and Sutton missing Week 17.

Quarterbacks

Easton Stick: In Stick’s two starts, he has QB13 and QB18 fantasy finishes. Among 46 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 12th in yards per attempt, 11th in passer rating, 36th in CPOE, and 25th in fantasy points per dropback. He faces off against a Denver secondary that has fallen off recently. Since Week 11, they have allowed the 11th-most passing yards per game, the 12th-highest yards per attempt, and the 13th-highest CPOE. Stick is a decent QB2 option this week. Week 17 Positional Value: QB2

Jarrett Stidham: It’s difficult to get too bullish about Stidham this week. Denver is likely without their top receiver, Courtland Sutton, and this offense has been run-heavy and slow for most of the season. Last year, among 48 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked seventh in yards per attempt, 18th in CPOE and fantasy points per dropback, and 43rd in highly accurate throw rate. The Chargers remain a woeful pass defense, so Stidham has a chance to post solid QB2 numbers this week. Since Week 11, the Bolts have allowed the 11th-highest yards per attempt, the sixth-most passing touchdowns, and the sixth-highest passer rating. Stidham likely manages Denver to a win this week, but I don’t expect him to light up the box score. Week 17 Positional Value: QB2

Running Backs

Austin Ekeler: In two of Ekeler’s last three games, he has played at least 64% of the snaps while averaging 16.5 touches and 93 total yards. I’m chalking up the Week 15 experience to a Brandon Staley brain fart. While the box score numbers have improved for Ekeler since Week 14, he still is a shadow of his former efficient self. Over the last three weeks, he has zero explosive runs, a 13% missed tackles forced per attempt rate, and only 2.57 yards after contact per attempt. Since Week 11, Denver’s run defense has improved some, ranking 17th in explosive run rate and 14th in rushing yards per game allowed while also giving up the eighth-lowest rushing touchdown rate and missed tackles per attempt. Ekeler is a solid but not amazing RB2 option this week. Week 17 Positional Value: RB2

Javonte Williams: Williams has hit a wall in the second half of the season. Since Week 11, he has averaged 16.4 touches and only 54 total yards. He is just not breaking tackles. Among 59 qualifying backs since Week 11, he ranks 48th in missed tackles forced per attempt and yards after contact per attempt. While he’s a good bet for 15 touches weekly, it’s difficult to get excited about his production with those touches. The Chargers’ lowly run defense could help elevate Williams’ efficiency this week, though. Since Week 11, they have given up the 13th-highest explosive run rate, the ninth-most rushing yards per game, and the 10th-highest yards after contact per attempt. Week 17 Positional Value: RB2/3

Wide Receivers

Keenan Allen: Allen has been ruled out.

Joshua Palmer: Palmer has been ruled out.

Quentin Johnston: Johnston will slide in alongside Gerald Everett to conceivably lead the Bolts’ passing attack. I don’t have high hopes for Johnston, though. Since Week 11, Denver has the fourth-highest rate of single high (60.4%). Since Week 8, against single high, Johnston has only managed a 12% target per route run rate and 0.61 YPRR. These are not numbers conducive to fantasy success. Week 17 Positional Value: Sit

Courtland Sutton: Sutton has been ruled out (concussion).

Jerry Jeudy: Jeudy has been unplayable for much of this season. He is the WR58 in fantasy points per game. He has topped 70 receiving yards only once since Week 4. He has only one receiving touchdown all season (Week 8). Don’t play Jeudy now in the biggest week of the fantasy season. Since Week 11, the Bolts have held slot receivers to the 13th-lowest PPR points per target and receiving yards. Week 17 Positional Value: Sit

Tight Ends

Gerald Everett: Since Week 14, Everett has had a 65.9% route run rate, a 22.4% target share, 1.51 YPRR, and a 24.3% first-read share. It took the entire season for the Bolts to incorporate Everett into this offense, but we’re here now. He has six red zone targets over his last five games. He draws a wonderful matchup this week with Denver. The Broncos have allowed the second-most receiving yards and the most receiving touchdowns to tight ends this season. Week 17 Positional Value: Borderline TE1

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs

KC -7, O/U 44.5
Bengals vs. Chiefs Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

Since Week 12, the Bengals have continued to be quick and pass-first, ranking fifth in neutral pace and eighth in neutral passing rate.
Across their last five games, Kansas City has ranked eighth in neutral pace and first in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Jake Browning: Since Week 12, Browning has been the QB8 in fantasy points per game. He is third in yards per attempt, sixth in passer rating and CPOE, and seventh in fantasy points per dropback. What he has been doing has been impressive. We’ll see if he can keep it up this week against a Chiefs’ pass defense that, since Week 11, has held passers to the fourth-lowest yards per attempt, the 11th-lowest passer rating, and the seventh-lowest CPOE. Week 17 Positional Value: QB2

Patrick Mahomes: Start Mahomes this week. I know that probably doesn’t need to be said, but if you look at his output in fantasy lately, it probably should be. Since Week 8, he has finished as a QB1 in fantasy only once (Week 12). Since Week 8, among 38 qualifying quarterbacks, Mahomes has ranked 25th in yards per attempt and passer rating, 13th in CPOE, and 14th in highly accurate throw rate. His play hasn’t been the problem. The cast of characters around him has been letting him down, with the fifth-highest drop rate and the most yards lost to drops. The Bengals should be the fix-all elixir this week. Since Week 11, their pass defense has crashed and burned, allowing the highest yards per attempt, the second-most passing yards per game, the fourth-highest passer rating, and the second-highest CPOE. Week 17 Positional Value: QB1

Running Backs

Joe Mixon: Mixon is the RB12 in fantasy. Since Week 11, he has played 59-71% of the snaps weekly, averaging 17.7 touches and 85.5 total yards. He ranks third in opportunity share, ninth in weighted opportunity, and fourth in red zone touches. Mixon is 31st in missed tackles forced per attempt and 46th in yards after contact per attempt. He faces a Chiefs’ run defense that, since Week 11, has given up the 13th-most rushing yards per game, the seventh-highest explosive run rate, and the highest yards after contact per attempt. Week 17 Positional Value: RB1/2

Isiah Pacheco: Pacheco has cleared the concussion protocol and will be active this week. Last week, Pacheco played 57% of the snaps with 15 touches and 26 total yards. Pacheco is the RB15 in fantasy, ranking ninth in opportunity share, 22nd in weighted opportunities, and ninth in red zone touches. He is 21st in explosive run rate and 28th in yards after contact per attempt. Pacheco faces off against a Bengals’ run defense that has shown improvement. Since Week 11, they have the 10th-best stuff rate while allowing the seventh-lowest yards after contact per attempt and the third-lowest missed tackles per attempt. With Pacheco not being at 100%, he could split more work with Edwards-Helaire (assuming he plays), so it’s tough to consider him as anything more than an RB3 this week. Week 17 Positional Value: RB3

Clyde Edwards-Helaire: Edwards-Helaire has been sick this week and sounds truly questionable to play this week. With Pacheco clearing the concussion protocol Edwards-Helaire isn’t worth considering for your Week 17 lineups.

Wide Receivers

Ja’Marr Chase: Chase returned to limited practices on Thursday and Friday. Zach Taylor has left his status for this week up in the air. For what has been described as a multi-week injury (shoulder), there has been some slight optimism about him playing this week. I’m not buying it at the moment. I lean that Chase will sit this week. He has been labeled a game-time decision. If Chase plays, the Bengals have to feel good about where he’s at and his ability to perform near his usual level. The simple answer here is if Chase plays, you play him in fantasy. He is the WR7 in fantasy points per game, ranking 21st in deep targets and eighth in red zone looks. Week 17 Positional Value: WR1/2 (if active)

Tee Higgins: Since his Week 13 return to the lineup, Higgins has had a 15.5% target share, a 43.9% air-yard share, 2.53 YPRR, and an 18.6% first-read share. Last week without Chase, his usage ballooned to a 19% target share, a 36% air-yard share, and a 21.4% first-read share with 3.78 YPRR. Higgins’ outlook for Week 17 has a ridiculously wide range of outcomes as the statuses for Chase and L’Jarius Sneed are up in the air. Higgins could be the WR2 for the Bengals this week and feast on the Chiefs’ secondary corners not named Sneed if Chase plays. HIggins could also play well regardless of Chase’s status if Sneed doesn’t play. Fire up HIggins as a volatile WR2 if Sneed plays and Chase is out. His WR2 status improves dramatically if Sneed is in and Chase plays or if Sneed sits. Yes, it’s confusing I know. The main takeaway here is that Sneed and Chase’s statuses have significant bearing on HIggins’ Week 17 outlook and we have no clue if either player suits up this week.

Tyler Boyd: With Browning under center, Boyd has had a 13.8% target share, a 13.5% air-yard share, 1.60 YPRR, and a 15.6% first-read share. He has been presented with solid slot matchups during this timeframe, and yet he has mustered only one WR3 or better finish (WR36), which was last week when he secured five of his seven targets for a yawn-inducing 59 scoreless receiving yards. Sit Boyd. The ceiling isn’t there. Week 17 Positional Value: Sit

Andrei Iosivas: If Chase is out this week, Iosivas enters the flex radar for Week 17. Last week, as Higgins’ running mate, he drew a 19% target share, a 34% air-yard share, and a 21.4% first-read share. Those types of usage numbers are fantastic. If Chase plays, Iosivas returns to the bench.

Rashee Rice: Since Week 12, Rice has had a 25.9% target share, 2.46 YPRR, and a 31.1% first-read share while also leading all wide receivers in designed targets. The Chiefs are force-feeding their rookie receiver. Since Week 12, Rice has been the WR8 in fantasy points per game. He ranks second in red zone targets and yards after the catch among receivers. He should destroy a secondary that, since Week 11, has allowed the fifth-most PPR points per target and the seventh-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Week 17 Positional Value: WR1

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce: If you have Kelce on your roster, there’s no way you’re sitting him. Since Mahomes’ numbers took a nose dive in Week 8, Kelce has been staying afloat. Since Week 8, among 48 qualifying tight ends, Kelce has ranked ninth in target share (18.8%), 18th in YPRR (1.59), sixth in receiving yards per game (55.4), sixth in first-read share (24.1%), and ninth in fantasy points per game. Cincy has allowed the most receiving yards and the second-most fantasy points per game to tight ends this season. Week 17 Positional Value: TE1

Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings

MIN -2, O/U 46.5
Packers vs. Vikings Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

Since Week 12, Green Bay has had the sixth-slowest neutral pace while ranking 10th in neutral rushing rate.
In their last four games, Minnesota has been 17th in neutral pace and tenth in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Jordan Love: Since Week 9, when the light came on for Love, among 34 qualifying quarterbacks, he has ranked 10th in yards per attempt, fourth in passing touchdowns and passer rating, and first in CPOE. Since Week 9, he has been the QB9 in fantasy. Since Week 11, the cracks in the Vikings’ secondary pavement have been on display. They have allowed the 13th-most passing yards per game, the 11th-highest passer rating, and the sixth-highest CPOE. Despite their blitz-heavy ways, in this stretch, they have had the third-lowest time to pressure. Love should have all day to pick this secondary apart. Week 17 Positional Value: QB1

Jaren Hall: I’m not taking anything away from Hall’s ten regular season pass attempts. Let’s be kind and rewind to NFL Draft season so we can have a real conversation about Hall. Hall can create explosive plays, but his accuracy issues and inconsistent ball placement caused him to slip in the NFL Draft. These warts in his prospect profile showed up in the preseason this year. Among 28 qualifying preseason passers, he was 23rd in passing grade, 22nd in yards per attempt, 18th in adjusted completion rate, and 25th in aDOT. With all that said, the matchup is amazing for Hall. I won’t be surprised if the Packers’ putrid pass defense helps him to a nice QB2 stat line this week. Since Week 11, Green Bay has allowed the third-most yards per attempt and passing yards per game, the second-most passing touchdowns, and the fourth-highest CPOE. Week 17 Positional Value: QB2

For redraft folks that are unfamiliar with Hall, below is my prospect writeup for him that I penned this offseason.

2022 (minimum 150 dropbacks)
- PFF passing grade: 20th
- Adjusted completion rate: 25th
- Yards per attempt: 26th
- Big-time throw rate: 37th

Deep passing (minimum 20 deep passing attempts)
- Adjusted completion rate: 3rd
- Deep throw rate: 68th

Scouting report:

Bouncy feet in some clean pockets. His footwork can lapse on short timing throws or when pressured. This leads to accuracy wanes.
Inconsistent touch on passes. He will lace a perfect ball to the boundary on one play and then follow it up with a sideline throw that could have used a tad more mustard or a short pass that’s fastballed to his receiver.
When he’s in rhythm, Hall can put some special throws on tape. Easy velocity. A strong arm that can also lead him to attempt some tight window throws he shouldn’t.
Rushing upside should be there for Hall in the NFL. Good burst and lateral agility in the open field. A playmaker with the ball in his hands.

Running Backs

Aaron Jones: Last week, Jones finally looked somewhat like his normal self with 52% of the snaps played, 22 touches, and 135 total yards. His efficiency metrics looked better, as well, as he recorded a 4.8% explosive run rate and 3.95 yards after contact per attempt. His resurgence will, unfortunately, be short-lived. Minnesota has crushed rushing attacks all season. Since Week 11, the Vikings have allowed the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game, the third-lowest explosive run rate, and the sixth-lowest missed tackles per attempt. Jones is still a good bet for 15-20 touches this week, which puts him somewhere in the RB2/flex conversation. Week 17 Positional Value: RB2/3

A.J. Dillon: Dillon and his broken thumb only played 18% of the snaps last week, with seven touches and 12 total yards. The only reason I’m mentioning him this week in the Primer is because he had a touchdown, so that will perk up the ears of fantasy points chasers. Don’t play Dillon. Week 17 Positional Value: Sit

Ty Chandler: Chandler’s stat line was predictably terrible last week against the Lions. He had only eight touches and 17 total yards. That’s not the takeaway from Week 16. The big revelation was that he handled all the red zone work for the backfield and played 65% of the snaps. His tackle-breaking metrics still don’t jump off the page, with only a 9% missed tackles forced per attempt rate and 2.44 yards after contact per attempt, but that might not matter against the Packer’s Swiss cheese run defense. Since Week 11, Green Bay has allowed the sixth-highest explosive run rate, the fourth-most rushing yards per game, and the third-highest yards after contact per attempt. Look for Chandler to bounce back with 15-20 touches this week as a strong RB2. Week 17 Positional Value: RB2

Wide Receivers

Jayden Reed: Reed has managed limited practices this week. He looks primed to return this week. Dairy Belt Deebo has at least 38 rushing yards and a rushing score in two of his last five games. Since Week 11, the Vikings have had the third-highest two high rate in the NFL (65.4%). Since Week 11 against two high, Reed has had a 14.5% target share, 1.47 YPRR, and a 14.3% first-read share. He’ll be counted on by Love and will see some rushing work, but he won’t lead this passing attack against Minny’s two high heavy defense. Since Week 11, the Vikings have allowed the 11th-most PPR points per target to slot receivers. Week 17 Positional Value: WR3/4

Christian Watson: Watson has practiced this week (hamstring). He has been listed as doubtful. He will be out again this week.

Dontayvion Wicks: Wicks hasn’t practiced all week (chest/ankle). He has been listed as questionable, but I consider him closer to doubtful. I think Green Bay sits Wicks this week.

Romeo Doubs: Doubs should lead the Packers’ passing attack this week. Doubs ranks 17th in red zone target and seventh in total touchdowns among wideouts. Since Week 11, the Vikings have had the third-highest two high rate in the NFL (65.4%). Against two high, Doubs leads the team with an 18.3% target share while also compiling 1.85 YPRR, a 22.9% first-read share, and a team-leading eight end-zone targets. Since Week 11, Minnesota has allowed the 12th-most receiving yards to perimeter wide receivers. Week 17 Positional Value: WR3

Justin Jefferson: Jefferson has looked like himself in the last two weeks with WR22 and WR7 weekly finishes. Since Week 15, Jefferson has had a 28.6% target share, a 44.9% air-yard share, 2.96 YPRR, and a 35.1% first-read share. Jefferson should destroy the Packers in Week 17. Since Week 11, Green Bay has allowed the second-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Week 17 Positional Value: WR1

Jordan Addison: This week, Addison didn’t practice on Wednesday and then managed limited sessions on Thursday and Friday (ankle). He has been listed as questionable. In Week 15, with Justin Jefferson at his side, he had a 17.6% target share, a 22.7% air-yard share, 3.36 YPRR, and a 14.3% first-read share. It’s tough to be bullish on Addison this week. Yes, the matchup is great against the Green Bay secondary, but we have health concerns with Addison. also, the real question is, “How many weapons can Jaren Hall support in Week 17?” Since Week 11, Green Bay has allowed the second-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Week 17 Positional Value: WR4

K.J. Osborn: Osborn is the WR57 in fantasy, with only three WR3 or better weeks this season. Yes, I know one of those weeks was in Week 16, which is why fantasy GMs are considering him for lineups this week, but I can’t trust him in fantasy championship week. Osborn has eclipsed 40 receiving yards only once in his last six games with only three red zone targets. If Addison were to miss this week, it would conceivably bump up Osborn’s outlook. However, we still have real questions about Minnesota’s rookie quarterback starting this week and how many players he can make fantasy viable. Week 17 Positional Value: Sit

Tight Ends

Tucker Kraft: Since Week 13, Kraft has had a 16.2% target share, 1.83 YPRR, and a 19% first-read share. He has been a TE1 in three of his five starts (TE11, TE12, TE6). In his last five games, he has seen seven red zone targets. Kraft has been a revelation for Green Bay, and you can’t put this genie back in the bottle. He’s a stud. He has a tough matchup this week, but if he spikes a touchdown, he’ll be a TE1. Minnesota has allowed the 10th-fewest receiving yards and the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends. Week 17 Positional Value: Borderline TE1

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*All data utilized in this article is courtesy of Fantasy Points Data, PFF, ESPN analytics, The Edge from the 33rd Team, FTN, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*

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The Primer: Week 17 Edition (2023 Fantasy Football)

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Seattle Seahawks

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver Broncos

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings

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