Derek Brown | Fri, Dec 29th 2023, 6:40am EST

The Primer: Week 17 Edition (2023 Fantasy Football)

WE HAVE MADE IT. Championship Week 17 in Fantasy Football. Oh, BABY! Months of screen-induced migraines, Sunday flex start stress wrinkles, and impromptu work bathroom breaks have led you to this moment of glory.

Drink it in. Let it marinate and fuse with the deepest recesses of your soul. You deserve this.

Ok, now let’s set some lineups. Welcome to the Week 17 Primer. Enjoy.

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Fantasy Football Primer

Detroit Lions vs. Dallas Cowboys

DAL -6, O/U 53.5
Lions vs. Cowboys Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

The Cowboys have backed off their pass-first approach since Week 12, ranking 12th in neutral pace and 18th in neutral passing rate.
Across their last five games, the Lions have ranked 20th in neutral pace with the ninth-highest neutral rushing rate.

Quarterbacks

Jared Goff: Goff is the QB12 in fantasy points per game, ranking 11th in yards per attempt, seventh in passer rating, and 10th in CPOE. He should get far more love for the season that he is having. Goff is third in highly accurate throw rate and 13th in fantasy points per dropback. Goff should post respectable numbers this week that could allow him to sneak in as a low-end QB1. Since Week 11, Dallas has been a run-of-the-mill pass defense, allowing the 13th-highest yards per attempt while also ranking 16th in CPOE and 21st in passer rating. Their pass rush has remained fearsome over this timeframe, though ranking first in time to pressure and 12th in pressure rate. Week 17 Positional Value: Borderline QB1

Dak Prescott: Prescott is the QB3 in fantasy, ranking fifth in passing attempts and first in red zone passing attempts. This should be a monster bounce-back game for Prescott. While his star has dimmed over the last few weeks as he has fallen out of the MVP race, we still need to understand that Prescott has been really good since the light came on for this offense mid-season. Since Week 8, he has ranked sixth in yards per attempt, first in passing touchdowns, second in passer rating, and third in highly accurate throw rate. The Lions’ pass defense has been a struggling unit for much of the season. Since Week 11, Detroit has allowed the second-highest yards per attempt, the eighth-most passing yards per game, the eighth-highest passer rating, and the fifth-highest CPOE. Week 17 Positional Value: QB1

Running Backs

Jahmyr Gibbs: Gibbs has been an unstoppable force as the RB5 in fantasy points per game. He has finished as the RB3 or higher in weekly scoring in six of his last nine games. Since Week 10, he has averaged 14.4 touches and 89.2 total yards. Among 63 qualifying running backs, Gibbs ranks second in explosive run rate, ninth in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 13th in yards after contact per attempt. Gibbs should help dismantle a Dallas run defense that, since Week 11, has had the third-lowest stuff rate while allowing the seventh-highest yards after contact per attempt and the third-highest yards per carry to gap runs (5.39). 53.2% of Gibbs’ runs have been on gap plays. Week 17 Positional Value: RB1

David Montgomery: Montgomery remains the “Mark Ingram” in this offense. He’s the elusive early-down hammer that has been pummeling opponents as the RB11 in fantasy. Since Week 10, he has averaged 15.8 touches and 82.3 total yards. He has now scored a touchdown in 75% of his games this season. Montgomery ranks 13th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 12th in yards after contact per attempt. He’s a lock for 12-15 carries in this game, but his effectiveness will be in question. Since Week 11, while Dallas has had the third-lowest stuff rate and allowed the seventh-highest yards after contact per attempt, they have also shut down zone runs. Since Week 11, they have the 11th-best yards per carry mark in defending zone (4.0). 55.9% of Montgomery’s runs have come via zone plays. Montgomery will need another touchdown to save his fantasy day. Week 17 Positional Value: RB2

Tony Pollard: Pollard is the RB22 in fantasy points per game, averaging 18.1 touches and 78.8 total yards. He ranks eighth in snap share, 11th in opportunity share, and fifth in weighted opportunities. Pollard has underperformed for most of the year as the RB9 in expected fantasy points per game. Since Week 8, he has ranked 11th in explosive run rate and 15th in yards after contact per attempt. Pollard has another difficult matchup this week. Since Week 11, Detroit has the fourth-best stuff rate while holding backs to the sixth-lowest yards after contact per attempt and the eighth-lowest yards per carry on zone runs (since Week 8, 58.3% of Pollard’s runs have been with zone plays). Week 17 Positional Value: RB2

Wide Receivers

Amon-Ra St. Brown: St. Brown continues to bully secondaries on a weekly basis as the WR4 in fantasy. His consistency has been ridiculous this year, with 57% of his games ending in at least 100 receiving yards. Bonkers. He’ll have another big day this week. Since Week 11, Dallas has utilized single-high at the second-highest rate (62.8%). Against single-high, St. Brown has rocked a 28.5% target share, a 30.8% air-yard share with 2.72 YPRR, and a 34.3% first-read share. St. Brown will run about 55% of his routes against the ever-beatable Jourdan Lewis (70% catch rate and 111.7 passer rating). Week 17 Positional Value: WR1

Jameson Williams: Yes, over the last two weeks, Williams has been more involved in the offense with a 17.6% target share, a 32.8% air-yard share, 1.88 YPRR, and a 20% first read share. These are positive signs for Williams, who the team has slowly worked in. This isn’t a great matchup for Williams, though. Since Week 11, Dallas has utilized single-high at the second-highest rate (62.8%). Since Week 11, with Williams settling into a 57-65% snap role against single-high, he has only seen a 10.2% target share and an 18% target per route run rate with 1.47 YPRR. If you’re desperate, he’s a viable flex play, but if you’re looking for a ceiling this week, look elsewhere. Week 17 Positional Value: WR4/5

CeeDee Lamb: Lamb continues to torment opposing defensive coordinators weekly as one of the best young alphas in the game. He is the WR2 in fantasy, ranking tenth in deep targets and first in red zone targets. Lamb has scored in seven of his last nine games, and he’s poised to continue the streak this week. Since Week 11, the Lions have the 12th-highest rate of single-high (56%). Since Week 8, against single-high, Lamb has a 34.1% target share, a 42.1% air-yard share, 3.55 YPRR, and a 36.3% first-read share. Lamb will run about 58% of his routes against Brian Branch (63.2% catch rate and 88.9 passer rating). Since Week 10, Detroit has allowed the 12th-most PPR points per target to slot receivers. Week 17 Positional Value: WR1

Brandin Cooks: Overall, this has been a disappointing season for Cooks as the WR50 in fantasy points per game. He surprisingly has been a WR3 or better in five of his last 10 games, though, but a lot of that is due to touchdown luck as he has scored in six of those games. He has only surpassed 60 receiving yards in a game once since Week 11. Since Week 11, the Lions have the 12th-highest rate of single-high (56%). Since Week 8, against single-high, Cooks has crushed with a 15.9% target share, 2.37 YPRR, four end-zone targets, and a 16.1% first-read share. Cooks is a strong flex this week with some upside. Since Week 10, Detroit has allowed the most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Week 17 Positional Value: WR3/4 with boom potential

Tight Ends

Sam LaPorta: Sammy Ballgame just keeps doing wonderful things as he has changed the game for rookie tight ends and their expectations. He is the TE3 in fantasy, ranking ninth in deep targets and sixth in red zone targets while leading all tight ends with nine touchdowns. Since Week 11, Dallas has utilized single-high at the second-highest rate (62.8%). Ballgame eats single-high for breakfast, lunch, and dinner. Against single-high, Ballgame has a 20.9% target share, 2.69 YPRR, and a 22.3% first-read share. Among 167 qualifying wide receivers and tight ends against single-high, Ballgame ranks 15th in YPRR and fifth in fantasy points per route run, immediately behind CeeDee Lamb. Week 17 Positional Value: TE1

Jake Ferguson: Ferguson is the TE11 in fantasy points per game this season, ranking 13th in deep targets and first in red zone targets. He has underperformed this season, considering this usage as the TE7 in expected fantasy points per game. Since Week 11, the Lions have the 12th-highest rate of single-high (56%). Since Week 8, against single-high, Ferguson has had a 12.8% target share, 1.04 YPRR, and a 12.9% first-read share. Detroit has been kind to tight ends, allowing the 11th-most receiving yards and the 10th-most fantasy points per game. Ferguson is a TE1 again this week, but don’t expect a monster game from him. Week 17 Positional Value: TE1

New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills

BUF -12, O/U 41
Patriots vs. Bills Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

With Bailey Zappe starting, the Patriots have the slowest neutral pace in the NFL while ranking 16th in neutral passing rate.
With Joe Brady as the offensive coordinator, Buffalo has ranked fifth in neural pace and sixth in neutral rushing rate.

Quarterbacks

NE QBs: Much like with the Jets’ quarterbacks, I won’t trust a Patriots quarterback in fantasy this season. One bad half from Bailey Zappe, and we could see Mac Jones back under center. This is a horrendous matchup for the New England signal callers. Since Week 11, Buffalo has held quarterbacks to the second-lowest yards per attempt, the fifth-lowest passer rating, and the fourth-lowest passing yards per game.

Josh Allen: Since Week 11, Allen has remained the QB1 in fantasy. His rushing production has helped cover up his recent passing struggles. Across his last five games, he has averaged 33.4 rushing yards with six rushing scores. His passing numbers haven’t been as sexy. Since Week 11, among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 13th in yards per attempt, 20th in passer rating, 32nd in CPOE, and 23rd in highly accurate throw rate. Yeah, that’s not good at all. The last time Allen faced this pass defense, he completed 65.9% of his passes with two passing scores and one on the ground as the QB4 for the week. The Patriots are a pass funnel defense, as their run defense has been an elite unit all season. Their pass defense has played well in spurts this season, but overall, it’s a middle-of-the-road group. Since Week 11, New England ranks 15th in passer rating and 20th in passing yards per game allowed while coughing up the eighth-highest CPOE. Allen can continue to get by with his rushing production as a strong QB1. Week 17 Positional Value: QB1

Running Backs

Ezekiel Elliott: With Rhamondre Stevenson now on IR, Elliott will close the season as the Patriots’ bell cow. Since Week 14, he has played at least 83% of the snaps weekly, averaging 22 touches and 82 total yards. His tackle-breaking metrics as the starter have been about what you’d expect from an aging back who has struggled for most of the season. In his last three games, he has zero explosive runs, a 13% missed tackle rate, and only 2.11 yards after contact per attempt. He’s a volume play only. Elliott needs to continue to swallow up check-downs and score to likely pay off this week. Since Week 11, Buffalo has held backs to the seventh-lowest missed tackle rate, the third-lowest yards after contact per attempt, and the 11th-fewest rushing yards per game. Week 17 Positional Value: RB2

James Cook: Last week, Cook had 20 touches and 70 total yards, which doesn’t sound great (and it’s not), but he also played a season-high 75% of the snaps. Despite the dud game, Cook has been the RB3 in fantasy points per game, with Joe Brady calling the shorts, averaging 20.8 touches and 126.8 total yards. Cook ranks 21st in explosive run rate and 36th in missed tackles forced per attempt. He faces a tall task this week. The Patriots have fielded an elite run-stopping unit all year. Since Week 11, they have allowed the fewest rushing yards per game and yards after contact per attempt while also giving up the fourth-lowest rushing touchdown rate and missed tackle rate. Cook will have to rely on his pass game usage, which could be fruitful against a defense that has also permitted the fifth-most receptions and the seventh-most receiving yards to backs. Week 17 Positional Value: RB2

Wide Receivers

Demario Douglas: Douglas has been a solid WR3 since becoming a starter in New England. In his last seven starts, he has been a WR3 or better five times. Over that span, he has five red zone targets. Since Week 12, the Bills have utilized two-high on 59.5% of their defensive snaps (the sixth-highest rate). Since Week 7, against two high, Douglas has had a 19.1% target share, a 24.5% air-yard share, 1.44 YPRR, and a 26.3% first-read share. Against Buffalo in Week 7, Douglas secured four of his six targets for 54 receiving yards and a WR29 weekly finish. Douglas will run about 66% of his routes against Taron Johnson (76.5% catch rate and 106.2 passer rating). Week 17 Positional Value: WR3/4

Stefon Diggs: Well, so much for a bounce-back game for Diggs last week. If there was ever a fantastic spot for him to absolutely crush, it was against the Bolts. At what point do we press the panic button with Diggs and sit him? Yes, I just suggested the possibility of sitting Diggs. The results since Week 10 have been soul-crushing. Across his last six games, he has finished as the WR45 or lower in weekly scoring five times (WR53, WR53, WR52, WR45, WR53). That’s nightmare fuel. If you are in the fantasy championship, it is not because of Diggs but despite him. He has not seen a red zone target since Week 12. Since Week 11, New England has had the highest single-high rate (64.5%) in the NFL. Since Week 10, against single-high, Diggs’ usage has still been great with a 25% target share, a 32.7% air-yard share, and a 33.3% first-read share, but he has produced only 1.04 YPRR and 0.21 fantasy points per route run in these six games against single-high. Diggs will still see 8-10 targets this week, but his production is in question. Week 17 Positional Value: WR2

Gabriel Davis: If Diggs isn’t up to the task of carrying this passing attack this week, Davis could have another solid game. Every week, the first question to consider when looking to start Davis is, “Does the secondary struggle against deep passing?” Yep, I know we’ve talked about this before, but it’s true and bears repeating. Davis is 15th in deep targets and 10th in aDOT. He has six games as a WR2 or better this season. Luckily for Davis and the Bills, New England, since Week 10, has allowed the 11th-highest passer rating and CPOE and the sixth-highest deep-adjusted completion rate downfield. Since Week 11, New England has had the highest single-high rate (64.5%) in the NFL. Since Week 10, against single-high, Davis has had a 14.6% target share, a 29.3% air-yard share, 1.50 YPRR, and a 19% first-read share. The Davis roller coaster is tough to ride weekly, but it might be time to punch the ticket again for a fantasy championship. Week 17 Positional Value: WR3/4 with WR2 upside

Tight Ends

Hunter Henry: Henry has been limited in practice all week with a knee issue. He has been listed as questionable. In his last two games played, Henry has had a 65.7% route run rate, a 20.3% target share, 2.41 YPRR, and a 21.1% first-read share. He also led the team with two end-zone targets. Since losing Matt Milano, the Bills have allowed the 12th-most receptions and the 14th-most fantasy points to tight ends. Week 17 Positional Value: TE2 matchup-based streamer

Dalton Kincaid: Since Week 14, with Dawson Knox back, Kincaid has had a 62.6% route run rate, a 14.1% target share, and an 11.1% first-read share. Kincaid has seemingly hit the rookie wall, or Allen’s struggles as a passer have infiltrated his production. In his last three games, Kincaid has only managed 0.49 YPRR and 9.3 receiving yards per game. He has played only 42-49% of the snaps over the last two games. New England has crushed tight end production all year, allowing the third-fewest receiving yards per game and fantasy points per game. Week 17 Positional Value: TE2 / Sit

Atlanta Falcons vs. Chicago Bears

SF -10, O/U 44.5
Falcons vs. Bears Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

Since Week 12, the Bears have ranked 21st in neutral pace and 16th in neutral passing rate.
In Taylor Heinicke‘s starts earlier this season, Atlanta was seventh in neutral pace and eighth in neutral rushing rate. I expect a similar game plan this week.

Quarterbacks

Taylor Heinicke: Add Heinicke to the long list of quarterbacks that I will not entrust my fantasy championship hopes to in Week 17. He easily could be replaced mid-game if the Bears operate as they have the last few weeks and shut down the Falcons’ passing attack. With only 6.8 yards per attempt this season and zero games with multiple passing scores, Heinicke is an easy sit even in Superflex formats this week. Since Week 11, the Bears pass defense has forced the most interceptions while holding passers to the 10th-lowest yards per attempt and the second-lowest passer rating. Week 17 Positional Value: Sit

Justin Fields: Since Week 4, among 43 qualifying quarterbacks, Fields ranks 17th in passer rating, ninth in CPOE, 14th in highly accurate throw rate, and fifth in fantasy points per dropback. He is the QB10 in fantasy points per game this season, ranking sixth in red zone carries per game, second in rushing yards, and 10th in rushing touchdowns among quarterbacks. Fields has another difficult matchup this week against a tough Falcons secondary. Since Week 11, Atlanta has kept quarterbacks in check with the fourth-lowest passer rating, the sixth-lowest yards per attempt, and the lowest CPOE. Fields’ rushing equity gives him top 5-8 upside weekly. Week 17 Positional Value: QB1

Running Backs

Bijan Robinson: Robinson is the RB19 in fantasy, ranking sixth in weighted opportunities, 19th in carries, and fourth in targets. Last week, Arthur Smith decided to get out of his own way (to a certain extent), and Robinson played 75% of the snaps while soaking up 19 touches and producing 122 total yards. Smith still split up the red zone work, with Robinson only handling 50% of the backfield red zone work. Robinson will need all the volume on the ground this week to finish with a strong day, but he can crush Chicago through the air. Robinson ranks 22nd in explosive run rate and sixth in missed tackles forced per attempt. Since Week 11, the Bears have allowed the sixth-fewest rushing yards per game, the 14th-lowest missed tackles per attempt, and the 11th-lowest yards after contact per attempt. The Bears have, however, given up the most receiving yards per game and the highest yards per reception to running backs this season. Robinson is third among backs in target share and leads all backs in routes run. Week 17 Positional Value: RB1

Khalil Herbert: Last week was supposed to be Roschon Johnson week. I remember reading a memo somewhere about this. Maybe it was just an in-office email that was quickly deleted before 5 pm. I have no read on the Chicago backfield. Their usage of backs has been unpredictable, to say the least. Even if I wanted to tout a Bears’ back this week, the matchup is gruesome. This backfield is a full avoid. Since Week 11, the Falcons have had the seventh-best stuff rate while giving up the third-lowest rushing touchdown rate and the fifth-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Week 17 Positional Value: Sit

Wide Receivers

Drake London: London is the WR43 in fantasy points per game and a must-sit this week. He has finished as the WR43 or lower in four of his last six games and looks to be adding to the dubious total in Week 17. This has nothing to do with London’s talent and everything to do with this offense, the quarterback play inside of it, and the matchup. Since Week 10, the Bears have allowed the sixth-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers while playing Cover 3 at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL (41.5%). Against Cover 3, London has had a 15.3% target share, 1.40 YPRR, and a 20.2% first-read share. Sit London. Week 17 Positional Value: Sit

D.J. Moore: Moore dinged up his ankle again last week and isn’t on the injury report this week, but don’t think for a second that he is 100%. Moore is the WR13 in fantasy, ranking seventh in deep targets, 13th in receptions, 11th in receiving yards, and 10th in yards after the catch. He has a 24.7% target share, a 41.6% air-yard share, 2.29 YPRR, and a 36.7% first-read share. I expect him to be shadowed this week by A.J. Terrell (since Week 10: 31.6% catch rate and 40.9 passer rating allowed). Since Week 7, Terrell has followed Mike Evans, Calvin Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins, and Alec Pierce on at least 58.8% of their routes. Downgrade your expectations for Moore this week. Week 17 Positional Value: WR2

Tight Ends

Kyle Pitts: PItts has been a TE1 in three of his last four games (TE11, TE7, TE10). Yes, I’m as surprised as you are. He could continue the hot streak this week. Since Week 10, the Bears have played Cover 3 at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL (41.5%). Against Cover 3, Pitts has led the team with a 19.1% target share, a 31.8% air-yard share, 1.94 YPRR, and a 22.7% first read share. Fire up Pitts as a TE1 this week. Chicago has allowed the third-most fantasy points per game and the second-most receiving touchdowns per game to tight ends. Week 17 Positional Value: TE1

Cole Kmet: Kmet didn’t practice until Friday (limited). He has been listed as questionable. Kmet is the TE8 in fantasy this season, ranking seventh in receptions, eighth in receiving yards, and 11th in yards after the catch. He is sixth in red zone targets and second in total touchdowns. He has soaked up an 18.3% target share and 18.9% first-read share this season with 1.87 YPRR. Atlanta has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game and the fifth-most receiving yards per game to tight ends this season. If Kmet misses this game, fire up Robert Tonyan as a matchup-based streaming option. Week 17 Positional Value: TE1

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The Primer: Week 17 Edition (2023 Fantasy Football)

Fantasy Football Primer

Detroit Lions vs. Dallas Cowboys

New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills

Atlanta Falcons vs. Chicago Bears

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