Derek Brown | Sat, Dec 23rd 2023, 6:57am EST

The Primer: Week 16 Edition (2023 Fantasy Football)

New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos

DEN -7, O/U 35.5
Patriots vs. Broncos Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

Since Week 9, New England has had the ninth-slowest neutral pace while ranking 19th in neutral passing rate.
Across their last six games, Denver ranks 19th in neutral pace and 22nd in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Bailey Zappe: There’s no way I’ll get lulled into any false sense of security where I will consider a New England quarterback in any lineup. Nope. No way, and you shouldn’t either. Let someone else in Superflex formats fall on that dagger. We have a full season of quarterback controversy and underperformance to illustrate why any level of trust here is a bad idea. Week 16 Positional Value: Sit

Russell Wilson: Wilson is the QB16 in fantasy points per game with QB1 finishes in three of his last six games. Since Week 10, he has played good football, ranking eighth in passing touchdowns, 12th in passer rating, eighth in CPOE, and third in highly accurate throw rate. The pace of this game, plus a middling matchup, will likely keep Wilson’s numbers in check. He’s likely headed for an uninspiring QB2 performance. Since Week 10, New England has allowed the 14th-lowest yards per attempt and passer rating, the fourth-fewest passing touchdowns, and the 12th-fewest passing yards per game. Week 16 Positional Value: QB2

Running Backs

Ezekiel Elliott: Well, Elliott continued to play as a bell-cow last week with an 87% snap rate, but the results didn’t resemble anything close to his Week 14 blowup. This was against an arguably easier Kansas City run defense. Elliott finished with 16 touches and 46 total yards. Since Week 11, among 50 qualifying receivers, Elliott ranks 31st in missed tackles forced per attempt and 29th in yards after contact per attempt with zero explosive runs. Elliott gets another bite at the good matchup apple this week. We’ll see if he turns out to be a poisoned apple for fantasy again this week. Since Week 10, Denver has allowed the 10th-highest explosive run rate, the fourth-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the seventh-most rushing yards per game. Week 16 Positional Value: RB1/2

Rhamondre Stevenson: Stevenson has been ruled out.

Javonte Williams: Last week Denver was blown out by the Lions. Williams saw his snap share drop to 48%. I don’t foresee that type of game script playing out here in Week 16. With that being taken into consideration let’s look at his workload in the previous three games. In those contests he played 60-70% of the snaps averaging 19 touches and 77.5 total yards. The problem for Williams is that while I think his volume should be robust this week I worry how effective he will be with it. Since Week 11, among 50 qualifying backs, Williams ranks 37th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 31st in yards after contact per attempt. New England has smothered backs. Since Week 10, New England has allowed the fewest rushing yards per game, the fifth-fewest rushing touchdowns per game, and the fifth-lowest missed tackles per attempt. Week 16 Positional Value: RB3

Wide Receivers

Demario Douglas: Douglas returned last week to only a 60% route run rate, a 16.1% target share, and a 15.0% first read share, producing 1.57 YPRR. Douglas has been a pleasant surprise this season with WR3/flex viability, but his usage was down last week, and this week’s matchup is brutal. Since Week 9, Denver has allowed the third-lowest PPR points per target to slot receivers. Week 16 Positional Value: Sit

Courtland Sutton: Sutton is the WR26 in fantasy points per game. Sutton has bounced around from a low-end WR2 to a high-end WR3 all season. He ranks 19th in deep targets and eighth in red zone targets. Since Week 10, New England has utilized single-high at the highest rate in the NFL (67.6%). Against single-high, Sutton has had a 23.2% target share, a 37.0% air-yard share, 2.36 YPRR, and a 26.0% first-read share. Sutton and fantasy gamers shouldn’t fear this secondary. Since Week 9, the Patriots have allowed the 10th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Week 16 Positional Value: WR3

Jerry Jeudy: Jeudy remains the WR57 in fantasy. Last week, he had a smash matchup, but he finished with only 10.4 fantasy points, snagging three of his seven targets for 74 receiving yards. The coverage matchup dictates that Jeudy should be busy again this week. Since Week 10, New England has utilized single-high at the highest rate in the NFL (67.6%). Against single-high, Jeudy has had a 19.9% target share, a 34.5% air-yard share, 2.08 YPRR, and a 28.9% first-read share. New England has obliterated slot receivers. Since Week 9, New England has allowed the fourth-lowest PPR points per target to slot receivers. Week 16 Positional Value: WR4/5

Tight Ends

Hunter Henry: Henry has been ruled out.

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs

KC -10, O/U 40.5
Raiders vs. Chiefs Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

The Raiders continue to run slow with the fifth-slowest neutral pace since Aidan O’Connell took over, but they have slowly morphed into a pass-first team. Since Week 9, Las Vegas is 13th in neutral passing rate. If we zoom in further, over their last three games, they rank eighth in neutral passing rate.
Since Week 11, Kansas City ranks 12th in neutral pace and sixth in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Aidan O’Connell: O’Connell finished with the first QB1 finish of his career last week as the QB3 for the week in a legendary clubbing of the Chargers. Kansas City won’t be as easy of an opponent, but it’s not like O’Connell was terrible the last time he faced this pass defense. He finished as the QB17 for the week while completing 69.7% of his passes with 7.5 yards per attempt, 248 passing yards, and a score. Since Week 16, among 33 qualifying quarterbacks, O’Connell ranks 19th in passer rating and CPOE, eighth in highly accurate throw rate, and 28th in fantasy points per dropback. The Chief’s pass defense has taken a small step back over the last few weeks, but they remain a strong unit overall. Since Week 10, they have the 10th-lowest passing yards per game, the seventh-fewest passing touchdowns, and the 12th-lowest CPOE. Across their last five games, Kansas City also ranks fifth-best in time to pressure. Week 16 Positional Value: QB2

Patrick Mahomes: In their last meeting, Mahomes ripped the Raiders secondary apart with 298 passing yards, a 79.4% completion rate, and two scores as the QB8 for the week. Coincidentally, that was the last time we saw Mahomes post a QB1 game. Mahomes has been a QB2 in six of his last seven games. Yes, you read that correctly. Overall, Mahomes is the QB8 in fantasy, but it has been tough to click his name weekly. Since Week 8, Mahomes counting stats have been down as he ranks 22nd in yards per attempt, 21st in passer rating, and 15th in passing yards per game, but the deeper metrics that speak to his talent remain just fine as he has ranked ninth in CPOE and fifth in adjusted completion rate. This shouldn’t be a bold take, but considering his recent run, it is. Mahomes returns to the QB1 good graces this week. Since Week 11, the Raiders have been exposed for the leaky pass defense that they are allowing the 11th-highest yards per attempt, the sixth-highest passer rating, and the fourth-highest CPOE. Week 16 Positional Value: QB1

Running Backs

Josh Jacobs: Jacobs didn’t practice on Wednesday or Thursday. He returned to practice on Friday, but he then missed Saturday’s practice (quad). He has been listed as questionable. I still don’t think Jacobs is assuredly playing this week. The fact that he didn’t practice on Saturday after logging a limited session on Friday is telling. Jacobs could see his bellcow workload diminished some with Zamir White stepping up in his absence. Jacobs would conceivably still hold the edge for red zone work, but he is a very dicey play this week. Since Week 10, Kansas City has allowed the 11th-highest explosive run rate, the second-highest rushing touchdown rate, and the ninth-highest yards after contact per attempt. Week 16 Positional Value: RB2/3 with RB1 upside if he plays his usual role

Zamir White: White could return to his seldom-utilized backup role this week if Jacobs returns, but I’m projecting Jacobs to be out or limited this week. Last week, White finished as the RB12 in fantasy, playing 70% of the snaps with 20 touches, 85 total yards, and a score. Last week, White posted respectable per-touch efficiency numbers with a 5.9% explosive run rate and 2.76 yards after contact per attempt. If he draws the start, White should find plenty of running room this week against a Kansas City run defense that, since Week 10, has allowed the 11th-highest explosive run rate, the second-highest rushing touchdown rate, and the ninth-highest yards after contact per attempt. If Jacobs is active, White could still work in, which would downgrade him to a flex-only play. Week 16 Positional Value: RB2 (if Jacobs is out)

Isiah Pacheco: It looks like Pacheco will be back this week. He practiced fully so far this week. What will his workload look like this week? I think the 16.5 touches and 77.4 total yards that he averaged in Weeks 1-8 while playing 42-63% of the snaps is a reasonable median expectation or maybe a smidge down. If Pacheco scores with that type of workload, he will likely be an RB2. Among 61 qualifying backs, Pacheco ranks 15th in explosive run rate and 23rd in yards after contact per attempt. He has a tough assignment this week against a Raiders run defense that is no pushover. Since Week 10, they have allowed the lowest missed tackles per attempt rate, the seventh-lowest yards after contact per attempt, the fourth-lowest rushing touchdown rate, and the ninth-fewest rushing yards per game. Week 16 Positional Value: RB2/3

Wide Receivers

Davante Adams: The last time Adams faced Kansas City, he finished as the WR32 for the week by securing five of his seven targets for 73 scoreless yards. Adams had L’Jarius Sneed (52.8% catch rate and 56.6 passer rating) in his back pocket on 83.9% of his routes. I expect Kansas City to allow Sneed to shadow him again. Sneed has been a shadow monster this season, shutting down every wide receiver he lines up against weekly. Sneed hasn’t allowed a touchdown all season. With O’Connell under center, Adams has been the WR16 in fantasy with a 29.7% target share, a 46.8% air-yard share, 2.25 YPRR, and a 39.0% first-read share. Despite the horrible matchup with Sneed this week, Adams should be in your lineups. Week 16 Positional Value: WR2

Jakobi Meyers: With O’Connell under center since Week 9, Meyers has had a 14.9% target share, a 15.4% air-yard share, 1.51 YPRR, and a 19.1% first-read share. Meyers torched the Chiefs in Week 12, and he’s primed to do it again this week. He was the WR14 in weekly scoring, securing six of his seven targets for 79 yards and a score. Meyers will match up with Trent McDuffie (69.8% catch rate and 102.3 passer rating) and Jaylen Watson (58.1% catch rate and 115.1 passer rating) for most of the day. Week 16 Positional Value: WR4 with WR2/3 upside

Rashee Rice: The Rashee Rice ascension is complete. Over the last two games he has played at least 85% of the snaps. He is the unquestioned WR1 on this roster. Yes, I know Travis Kelce is still here, but Rice has been balling and should continue crushing cornerbacks’ souls this week. Since Week 12, Rice has had a 25.7% target share, 2.81 YPRR, and a 32.7% first-read share. He has seen a whopping 36.8% designed target rate which to put into context leads all wide receivers and tight ends (minimum 75 routes run). Since Week 12, Rice is fourth in fantasy points per route run. Since Week 9, the Raiders have allowed the seventh-highest PPR points per target and the fifth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers (Rice 58% perimeter since Week 12). Week 16 Positional Value: WR1

Tight Ends

Michael Mayer: Mayer has been ruled out.

Travis Kelce: Kelce remains the TE1 in fantasy points per game, and while he hasn’t been producing monster stat lines weekly this season, if you have him, you’re starting him without question. He was the TE5 the last time he faced the Raiders, securing six of his seven targets for 91 scoreless yards. Kelce ranks second in raw target volume, third in deep targets, and second in red zone targets. Matchups and Taylor Swift splits don’t matter for Kelce. Week 16 Positional Value: TE1

New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles

PHI -13.5, O/U 43
Giants vs. Eagles Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

With Tommy DeVito as the starter, the Giants rank 19th in neutral pace and 16th in neutral passing rate.
Since Week 10, the Eagles have been 14th in neutral pace and sixth in neutral rushing rate.

Quarterbacks

Tommy DeVito: Since Week 10, Cutlets has had his moments of brilliance, but overall, he has performed as a QB2. Among 32 qualifying quarterbacks over that timeframe, DeVito has ranked 23rd in yards per attempt, 17th in CPOE, 23rd in highly accurate throw rate, and 20th in fantasy points per dropback. DeVito is in a good spot to return solid QB2 value this week. The Eagles’ pass defense has been in shambles. Since Week 10, they have allowed the sixth-most passing yards per game, the fifth-most passing touchdowns, and the eighth-highest passer rating. Week 16 Positional Value: QB2

Jalen Hurts: Hurts continues to roll along as the QB2 in fantasy, with his rushing propping him up. Hurts has six rushing scores over his last five games. Overall, his 12 scores on the ground rank first among quarterbacks, while he is also third in rushing yards per game and first in red zone carries per game. Since Week 11, he has been struggling as a passer, with the sixth-lowest yards per attempt, the seventh-lowest CPOE, and the fourth-lowest passer rating. The Eagles’ passing attack has been tough to watch over the last few games. Luckily for Hurts, this is a good spot for him to get back on the right track. Since Week 10, the Giants have allowed the seventh-most passing yards per game, the 12th-highest CPOE, and the eighth-highest adjusted completion rate. Week 16 Positional Value: QB1

Running Backs

Saquon Barkley: Barkley had a dud last week, only playing 50% of the snaps with 11 touches and 37 total yards. This looks like a prime bounce-back spot for the Giants’ best player. Across his last nine games, he has averaged 21 touches and 94.2 total yards. Barkley is the RB9 in fantasy points per game, ranking this in snap share, second in opportunity share, and tenth in weighted opportunities. Barkley ranks ninth in explosive run rate and 19th in yards after contact per attempt. Since Week 10, the Eagles run defense has been suspect, allowing the fifth-most rushing yards per game, the ninth-highest explosive run rate, and the 13th-highest yards per carry to zone runs (Barkley 55.2% zone). Week 16 Positional Value: RB1

D’Andre Swift: Swift has been a tough player to trust. Yes, he’s the RB23 in fantasy points per game, but weekly, he sees his touchdown equity get gobbled up by Hurts. He has also seen his pass game usage wither and die. In seven of his last nine games, he has three or fewer targets. In that span, he has averaged 15.9 touches and 66.2 total yards. Among 61 qualifying backs, he ranks 38th in missed tackles forced and 46th in yards after contact per attempt. Swift is in another strong spot to kick himself out of the rut this week. Since Week 10, the Giants have allowed the third-highest explosive run rate, the sixth-most rushing yards per game, and the 10th-highest rushing touchdown rate. Week 16 Positional Value: RB1/2

Wide Receivers

Darius Slayton: Slayton is an interesting deeper flex play this week. Since Week 10, he’s had a 15.3% target share, a 22.5% air-yard share, 1.47 YPRR, and a 22.8% first-read share. Last week, Tommy Cutlets fed him a 21% target share, as Slayton tied for the team lead in receptions and led the way with 63 receiving yards. Since Week 9, the Eagles have allowed the third-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Week 16 Positional Value: Dart throw flex play

Wan’Dale Robinson: Robinson also checks the curious flex play box this week. Since Week 10, he has seen a 16.1% target share with 1.28 YPRR and a 21.5% first-read share. Robinson has two top-20 wide receiver finishes over his last six games (WR13, WR17). Since Week 9, the Eagles have allowed the 11th-highest PPR points per target to slot receivers. Week 16 Positional Value: Dart throw flex play

A.J. Brown: Despite the Eagles’ recent pass game struggles, Brown remains the WR4 in fantasy, ranking fifth in deep targets and eighth in red zone targets. Since Week 10, the Giants have utilized single-high at the seventh-highest rate (59.4%). Against single-high, Brown has a 36.8% target share, a 53.2% air-yard share, 3.81 YPRR, and a 46.9% first-read share. Since Week 9, the Giants have allowed the 13th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Brown should have a monster game carrying propelling fantasy managers to championship games. Week 16 Positional Value: WR1

DeVonta Smith: Smith is the WR19 in fantasy points per game, ranking 18th in deep targets, but he has a minuscule red zone role with only seven red zone looks this season. This game doesn’t set up well as a Smith smash outing. Since Week 10, the Giants have utilized single-high at the seventh-highest rate (59.4%). Against single-high, Smith has a 19.7% target share, a 25.1% air-yard share, 1.33 YPRR, and a 21.0% first-read share. He has only two end-zone targets this season against single-high (Brown, six). Since Week 9, the Giants have allowed the 13th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Smith has been out of practice this week (knee). His status has to be closely watched. If he misses this game, upgrade Swift and Goedert. Smith has stated that he is playing this week. Week 16 Positional Value: WR2/3

Tight Ends

Darren Waller: Last week, Waller returned to the lineup with a 44.7% route run rate, a 13.2% target share, 1.90 YPRR, and an 11.1% first-read share. Waller’s usage will probably go up this week, but it’s not a sure thing to happen. Playing Waller carries a lot of risk, but it could pay off this week, especially if he’s closer to full-time status in the 65-70% route run rate department. Since Week 13, Philly plays Cover 3 or Cover 4 on 59.3% of their defensive snaps. Against those coverage types, Waller has a 20.5% target share, a 29.8% air-yard share, 2.08 YPRR, and a 24.4% air-yard share. Those numbers jump off the page. The Eagles have been a neutral matchup for tight ends. Philly has allowed the 13th-most fantasy points per game and the 14th-most receiving yards per game to tight ends. Week 16 Positional Value: TE2 with TE1 upside

Dallas Goedert: Since Goedert’s return to the lineup, he has had an 84.8% route run rate, a 22% target share, 1.07 YPRR, and a 20.8% target share. Since Week 10, the Giants have utilized single-high at the seventh-highest rate (59.4%). Against single-high, he is tied for second on the team with a 19% target per route run rate with 1.30 YPRR and an 18.7% first-read share. These are solid but not spectacular numbers. The Giants have defended tight ends well this season, allowing the fifth-lowest fantasy points per game and the 10th-fewest receiving yards per game. Week 16 Positional Value: low-end TE1

Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers

SF -6, O/U 47
Ravens vs. 49ers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

Since Week 11, the 49ers have had the second-slowest neutral pace but continue to rank tenth in neutral passing rate.
Across their last four games, Baltimore has operated as the second-fastest team in neutral situations while ranking tenth in neutral rushing rate.

Quarterbacks

Lamar Jackson: Jackson is the QB5 in fantasy points per game. His rushing skill hasn’t gone away, as he ranks second in red zone carries per game, first in rushing yards, and fourth in rushing touchdowns among quarterbacks. Jackson continues to excel as a passer, ranking fifth in yards per attempt and hero throw rate and ninth in passer rating and adjusted completion rate. He will be tested this week against a 49ers secondary that, since Week 10, has allowed the 10th-lowest yards per attempt and the fourth-lowest passer rating and passing touchdowns. Jackson’s legs might have to carry his fantasy day this week. Week 16 Positional Value: QB1

Brock Purdy: I hear the MVP chants. While they were once a dull roar, now my ears are bleeding, and the chanting is deafening. Purdy deserves it, too, as the QB4 in fantasy. Purdy leads all quarterbacks in yards per attempt, passer rating, passing touchdowns, and fantasy points per dropback. Purdy will be tested this week, though, against a talented Baltimore pass defense. Since Week 10, they have allowed the fifth-lowest yards per attempt, the fourth-lowest CPOE, and the 14th-fewest fantasy points via passing. Week 16 Positional Value: QB1

Running Backs

Gus Edwards: Edwards is the RB28 in fantasy points per game, ranking 26th in carries and 18th in red zone touches. He will reclaim his clear lead role with Keaton Mitchell done for the year. Edwards ranks 37th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 36th in yards after contact per attempt. Edwards faces a 49ers run defense that, since Week 10, has allowed the seventh-lowest rushing yards per game, the 14th-lowest rushing touchdown rate, and the 13th-highest stuff rate. Week 16 Positional Value: RB3

Christian McCaffrey: Play Christian McCaffrey. Here is your analysis. Regardless of format, McCaffrey will be in your lineups this week. Matchups don’t matter for him, but I’ll say this. Baltimore is not a run defense to fear. Since Week 10, they have been 16th in rushing yards per game while giving up the 12th-highest yards after contact per attempt and having the eighth-lowest stuff rate. Week 16 Positional Value: THE RB1

Wide Receivers

Zay Flowers: Well, I wasn’t expecting only two targets, one reception, and seven receiving yards last week for Flowers in a matchup he should have crushed. Since Week 10, the 49ers have had the seventh-highest rate of two high (53.2%). Against two-high, Flowers has seen his target share fall to 17.7% with a 14.8% air-yard share, 0.95 YPRR, and a 25.7% first-read share. Flowers is tough to start this week although I know many people will be pressed to put him into their lineups. Since Week 10, the 49ers have allowed the fourth-lowest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Week 16 Positional Value: WR3

Odell Beckham Jr.: Beckham Jr. has had moments of brilliance this season. Week 14 was one of them, with 10 targets, four grabs, 97 receiving yards, and a score. Well, Week 15 definitely was not. Beckham did play a healthy 54% of the snaps, but he only had three targets, one reception, and 14 receiving yards. This week could be the bounce-back game. Since Week 10, the 49ers have had the seventh-highest rate of two high (53.2%). Against two high, Beckham Jr. has had a 16.9% target share, a 32.1% air-yard share, 1.82 YPRR, and a 25% target per route run rate. This is a tough matchup, but I expect Beckham Jr. to be a diamond in the rough. Since Week 10, the 49ers have allowed the fourth-lowest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Week 16 Positional Value: WR3/4 with WR2 upside

Brandon Aiyuk: Aiyuk is the WR15 in fantasy points per game, ranking 21st in deep targets, ninth in receiving yards, and 18th in yards after the catch. Since Week 11, with everyone on the 49ers healthy, Aiyuk has had a 21.0% target share, a 34.4% air-yard share, 2.94 YPRR, and a 27.4% first-read share. Aiyuk is a weekly must-start despite the bad matchup. Since Week 10, Baltimore has allowed the lowest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Week 16 Positional Value: WR1/2

Deebo Samuel: Samuel has been on fire as the WR8 in fantasy, ranking 27th in red zone targets and second in total touchdowns. Since Week 11, he has had a 24.6% target share, 3.32 YPRR, and a 23.8% first-read share. If you have Samuel, you are starting him. Since Week 10, Baltimore has allowed the lowest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Week 16 Positional Value: WR1/2

Tight Ends

Isaiah Likely: Since Week 12, Likely has seen an 18.2% target share and an 18.2% first-read share with 2.01 YPRR as the TE5 in fantasy. Likely has three red zone targets over his last two games played. Likely has a horrible matchup this week against a 49ers team that has held tight ends to the 12th-fewest fantasy points per game and the third-lowest yards per reception. LIkely could score and still be a TE1 this week, but the ceiling isn’t high. Week 16 Positional Value: TE1

George Kittle: Kittle is the TE5 in fantasy points per game, ranking ninth in red zone targets, third in receiving yards, and ninth in yards after the catch. Since Week 11, Kittle has had a 21.0% target share, a 21.3% air-yard share, 2.34 YPRR, and a 23.8% first-read share. Baltimore has shut down tight ends all season, allowing the third-fewest fantasy points per game and the second-fewest receiving yards per game. Kittle can blow up in any week regardless of the matchup, so if you have him, you’re starting him. Week 16 Positional Value: TE1

New Orleans Saints vs. Los Angeles Rams

LAR -4, O/U 44.5
Saints vs. Rams Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

Since Week 9, the Saints have slowed the operation down, ranking as the fifth-slowest offense in close games while sitting at 16th in passing rate.
Across their last five games, the Rams rank 15th in neutral pace and 24th in neural passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Derek Carr: Last week was Carr’s first QB1 performance (QB6) since Week 9. That game did nothing to increase my trust level in Carr. If anything, it was more of an indictment of the Giants’ pass defense. Carr ranks 22nd in yards per attempt, 33rd in fantasy points per dropback, and 23rd in highly accurate throw rate. He has descended into the lower levels of QB2 land as the season has progressed, and there’s no reason to expect anything different this week. Since Week 10, the Rams have continued to defy the odds as a strong pass defense, giving up the sixth-lowest yards per attempt, the 10th-lowest passer rating, and the eighth-lowest CPOE. Week 16 Positional Value: QB2

Matthew Stafford: Stafford has been crushing it since his return as the QB7 in fantasy points per game, with at least 18.5 fantasy points in each of his last four games. Since Week 11, he is ninth in passing yards per game, fifth in passer rating, and second in passing touchdowns. His accuracy metrics have been strong if we take out his first game back in action. Since Week 12, he ranks 10th in CPOE and highly accurate throw rate. While the Saints have been a tough team to figure out in some weeks, their pass defense has remained strong. Since Week 10, they have given up the ninth-lowest yards per attempt, the seventh-lowest passer rating, and the fifth-lowest CPOE. Don’t discount that Stafford could still carve up this defense, though. He’ll have plenty of time to find open receivers against a Saints’ pass rush that, over their last five games, ranks seventh-lowest in time to pressure. Week 16 Positional Value: Borderline QB1

Running Backs

Alvin Kamara: Kamara has been the model of consistency this season as the RB3 in fantasy points per game. He hasn’t finished lower than RB19 in any game this season, and only twice has he not been RB13 or better in weekly scoring. Since Week 12, Kamara has averaged 18.8 touches and 95.8 total yards. Kamara is seventh in opportunity share, 11th in fantasy points per opportunity, first in targets, and tenth in red zone touches. Kamara has begun to show some of his prime burst over the last few weeks. Since Week 9, among 62 qualifying backs, he ranks 26th in explosive run rate and 22nd in missed tackles forced per attempt. Kamara is a pure volume play this week because the efficiency likely won’t be there against a Rams’ run defense that has been a brick wall all year. Since Week 10, they have allowed the sixth-fewest rushing yards per game, the second-lowest rushing touchdown rate, and the fourth-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Week 16 Positional Value: RB1

Kyren Williams: Williams has been a completely different player than in 2022. He is the RB2 in fantasy this season, ranking first in snap share, fifth in opportunity share and fourth in red zone touches. He has averaged 26.6 touches and 146.3 total yards. Among 61 qualifying backs, Williams is 25th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 18th in yards after contact per attempt. Williams could have another strong day in Week 16 as the volume is never in question, but his matchup with the Saints is more problematic than it might first appear. Since Week 10, New Orleans has allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per game and the seventh-highest yards before contact per attempt, but their splits against zone and gap runs have been massive. Williams has seen 64% of his runs on gap plays this season. New Orleans has allowed the fourth-highest yards per carry to zone runs since Week 10, but they have shut down gap runs to the tune of the third-lowest yards per carry allowed to gap runs (2.58) over that span. Week 16 Positional Value: RB1

Wide Receivers

Chris Olave: Olave is the WR22 in fantasy points per game, ranking first among wide receivers in deep targets while seeing four red zone looks over his last five games played. Olave has a 24.2% target share, a 41.4% air-yard share, 2.13 YPRR, and a 31.5% first-read share. He will run about 58% of his routes against Ahkello Witherspoon (43.9% catch rate and 60.2 passer rating) and Derion Kendricks (63.1% catch rate and 105.0 passer rating). Since Week 9, the Rams have allowed the 14th-lowest PPR points per target and passer rating when targeted to perimeter wide receivers. Week 16 Positional Value: WR2

Rashid Shaheed: With Olave out last week, Shaheed had a golden opportunity to step up as the lead target for the Saints passing attack, but it didn’t happen. He is not a high-end target earner, and it showed with a 13.8% target share and a 15.0% first-read share. Overall, he has a 13.1% target share, a 22.3% air-yard share, and 1.72 YPRR. This week, he’s just a low-end flex play in a tough matchup. Since Week 9, the Rams have allowed the 14th-lowest PPR points per target and passer rating when targeted to perimeter wide receivers. Week 16 Positional Value: WR4/5

Cooper Kupp: Since Week 12, with a healthy Stafford under center and Kupp closer to 100% health, he has had a 21.5% target share, an 18.2% air-yard share, 2.11 YPRR, and a 25% first-read share. If we zoom in even further, Kupp has taken back over as the team’s leading receiver. Since Week 14, Kupp has had a 24.3% target share (Puka Nacua 23.0%) and a 28.8% first-read share (Nacua 23.1%). Kupp will run about 66% of his routes against Alontae Taylor (66.7% catch rate and 98.6 passer rating). Since Week 9, the Saints have allowed the eighth-fewest PPR points per target to slot receivers. Despite the tough matchup, Kupp has regained his weekly WR1 throne. Week 16 Positional Value: WR1

Puka Nacua: Nacua is the WR13 in fantasy points per game, ranking 10th in receptions, sixth in receiving yards, and seventh in yards after the catch. Since Week 12, with the healthy duo of Stafford and Kupp in the huddle, Nacua has seen a 22.2% target share, a 29.6% air-yard share with 2.22 YPRR, and a 24.0% first-read share. Over the last two games, the target share and first-read share have tilted more in Kupp’s favor, with Nacua garnering a 23.0% target share (Kupp 24.3%) and a 23.1% first-read share (Kupp 28.8%). Nacua will run about 78% of his routes against Isaac Yiadom (42.4% catch rate and 63.2 passer rating) and Paulson Adebo (56.3% catch rate and 54.6 passer rating). Week 16 Positional Value: WR2

Tight Ends

Taysom Hill: Hill only played 19% of the snaps last week in his first game back. He’s not fully healthy, and it showed with his playing time. He only had two touches and five total yards while also chipping in a passing attempt. There’s no way I can trust him in the fantasy playoffs this week. Week 16 Positional Value: Sit

Tyler Higbee: Since Week 12, in his three games played, Higbee has had a 13.6% target share, 1.59 YPRR, and a 13.3% first read share. Higbee’s usage has been middling this season. The lifeblood of fantasy production for tight ends is touchdown equity, and Higbee hasn’t had much, with only two red zone targets over the last seven games. Despite that, Higbee is an interesting streaming option this week. The Saints have bled out production to tight ends this season. New Orleans has allowed the 12th-most fantasy points per game and the eighth-highest yards per reception to tight ends. Week 16 Positional Value: TE2 with TE1 upside this week

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*All data utilized in this article is courtesy of Fantasy Points Data, PFF, ESPN analytics, The Edge from the 33rd Team, FTN, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*

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The Primer: Week 16 Edition (2023 Fantasy Football)

New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs

New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers

New Orleans Saints vs. Los Angeles Rams

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