The Primer: Week 16 Edition (2023 Fantasy Football)

Cleveland Browns vs. Houston Texans

HOU -2.5, O/U 40
Browns vs. Texans Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

With Joe Flacco starting the Browns have been sixth in neutral pace and 10th in neutral passing rate.
Last week with Case Keenum under center, the Texans ranked first in neutral pace and 10th in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Joe Flacco: Since assuming the starting job, Flacco has been the QB8 in fantasy. He has averaged an eye-popping 44.3 passing attempts, 313 passing yards, and 2.3 passing touchdowns per game. All of those numbers are amazing for fantasy. The deeper metrics scream that volume is propping him up. Among 44 qualifying quarterbacks, Flacco ranks 20th in yards per attempt, 43rd in CPOE, 29th in highly accurate throw rate, and 25th in fantasy points per dropback. Flacco can continue living the high life this week against what has become a roastable Texans’ secondary. Since Week 10, Houston has allowed the fourth-highest yards per attempt, the third-most passing yards per game, and the sixth-highest CPOE. Week 16 Positional Value: QB2 with QB1 upside

Case Keenum: Stroud won’t be back this week as he’s still dealing with concussion symptoms. Keenum will draw another start. Last week, he was the QB24 in fantasy. In Week 15, among 33 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked 21st in yards per attempt and passer rating, 25th in CPOE, and 13th in highly accurate throw rate (17th in aDOT). Since Week 10, Cleveland has remained one of the best pass defenses in the NFL, giving up the third-lowest yards per attempt, passer rating, and CPOE. There are plenty of other QB2 options in the sea. Sit Keenum. Week 16 Positional Value: Sit

Running Backs

Jerome Ford: Ford is the RB26 in fantasy points per game, ranking 12th in weighted opportunities, 21st in carries, and tenth in targets. Since Week 13, he has played 51-57% of snaps weekly, averaging 13.7 touches and 55 total yards. With the Browns moving toward a pass-first offense with Flacco, Ford has seen his volume cut weekly. Ford ranks 18th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 17th in yards after contact per attempt. Cleveland should look to move the ball through the air against the Texans’ pass funnel defense. Since Week 10, Houston has had the second-best stuff rate while also allowing the fifth-lowest rushing yards per game and the 12th-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Week 16 Positional Value: RB3

Devin Singletary: Last week, Singletary reaffirmed his lead-back status for Houston, playing 75% of the snaps with 30 touches and 170 total yards. That was Singletary’s third 100 rushing yards performance of the season. Singletary ranks 21st in missed tackles forced per attempt and 27th in explosive run rate. He takes on a Browns’ run defense that, since Week 10, has allowed the sixth-highest rushing touchdown rate, the seventh-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the highest explosive run rate. Week 16 Positional Value: RB2

Wide Receivers

#Texans wide receiver Nico Collins @lbg_nico7 said he's back from calf injury and will be ready for Sunday's game against #Browns @KPRC2 pic.twitter.com/khfvnWbleR

— Aaron Wilson (@AaronWilson_NFL) December 21, 2023

Nico Collins: Collins has practiced in a limited fashion. He has been listed as questionable (calf). Collins has stated he is playing this week. Collins is the WR14 in fantasy, ranking 22nd in red zone targets, 13th in receiving yards, and 11th in yards after the catch. Since Week 11, Cleveland has utilized single-high at the ninth-highest rate (58.7%). Against single-high, Collins has a 23.3% target share, a 27.4% air-yard share, 4.14 YPRR, and a 28.3% first-read share. Since Week 9, the Browns have allowed the second-lowest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Week 16 Positional Value: WR2/3

Noah Brown: Last week, Brown dominated a faulty Titans’ secondary with a 30.5% target share, a 44.2% air-yard share, 2.56 YPRR, and a 26.1% first-read share. Brown’s Week 16 outlook could sway widely depending on the availability of Nico Collins. For now, he looks like the clear leader of the passing attack. Since Week 11, Cleveland has utilized single-high at the ninth-highest rate (58.7%). Brown has posted strong per-route numbers this season against single-high with a 21% target per route run rate and 3.11 YPRR. He’ll have his hands full with a secondary that, since Week 9, has allowed the second-lowest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Week 16 Positional Value: WR3/4

Amari Cooper: With Flacco under center, Cooper has a 20.1% target share, a 26.4% air-yard share, 2.18 YPRR, and a 27.7% first-read share. Overall, Cooper is the WR30 in fantasy, ranking 12th in deep targets and 36th in red zone targets. Cooper hasn’t seen a target inside the 20-yard line since Week 11. Cooper should have no problems this week posting a juicy stat line against a secondary that, since Week 9, has allowed the sixth-most PPR points per target and the 14th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Week 16 Positional Value: WR2

Elijah Moore: Moore had a brief flash of fantasy usefulness, but that has since been extinguished. Cooper and Njoku are the clear leaders of this aerial attack. Since Week 13, Moore has had a 15.7% target share, a 32.3% air-yard share, 1.34 YPRR, and a 19.1% first-read share. Moore could take advantage of this wonderful matchup, so not all hope is lost. If you’re desperate for a flex play this week, Moore is in play. Since Week 9, Houston has allowed the sixth-most PPR points per target and the 14th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers (since Week 13, Moore 67.9% out wide). Week 16 Positional Value: WR4/5

Tight Ends

David Njoku: With Flacco, Njoku has had a 20.9% target share (leads the team), 2.02 YPRR, and a 19.1% first-read share. Since Week 7, Njoku has been the TE5 in fantasy. He has been a monster, with at least 26.4 PPR points in each of his last two games. Njoku is third among tight ends in red zone targets. Houston has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game and the third-most receiving yards per game to tight ends this season. Week 16 Positional Value: TE1

Dalton Schultz: Schultz is the TE11 in fantasy points per game, ranking 18th in deep targets and sixth in red zone looks among tight ends. He has seen a 14.7% target share, a 15.1% air-yard share, and a 15.2% first-read share with 1.67 YPRR. He has a terrible matchup this week. The Browns have allowed the fewest fantasy points per game and receiving yards per game to tight ends. Week 16 Positional Value: TE2

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TB -1, O/U 42
Jaguars vs. Buccaneers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

Since Week 10, Tampa Bay has ranked 17th in neutral pace and 20th in neutral passing rate.
Across their last six games, Jacksonville has the tenth-slowest neutral pace while ranking eighth in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Trevor Lawrence: Lawrence has cleared the concussion protocol. He’ll start, and he’s immediately a strong QB1 this week. Lawrence is the QB14 in fantasy this season. He has been a QB1 in four of his last five games (QB1, QB6, QB5, QB11). Since Week 11, Lawrence has been in his bag, ranking 11th in yards per attempt, seventh in passing touchdowns, sixth in fantasy points per dropback, and sixth in highly accurate throw rate. Lawrence should scorch the earth this week against a secondary that, since Week 10, has allowed the 11th-highest yards per attempt and fifth-most passing touchdowns. Tampa Bay has allowed the ninth-most fantasy points this season via passing. Week 16 Positional Value: QB1

Baker Mayfield: Since Week 7, Mayfield has really found his footing in this offense as the QB14 in fantasy points per game. Since then, he has ranked third in passing touchdowns, 11th in passer rating, and ninth in highly accurate throw rate. He should shred this paper-thin Jaguars secondary. Since Week 10, the Jaguars have allowed the second-highest yards per attempt, passing touchdowns, and passer rating. Mayfield has resurrected his career this season in Tampa. Week 16 Positional Value: QB1

Running Backs

Travis Etienne: Since Week 10, Etienne has seen his workload cut back some with 61-69% of the snaps in five of his last six games, while he has averaged 16.5 touches and 66.5 total yards. Etienne is the RB7 in fantasy points per game, ranking second in weighted opportunities, fourth in carries, fifth in targets, and 12th in red zone touches. Etienne hasn’t had at least 100 total yards in a game since Week 8. Since Week 10 among 56 qualifying backs, Etienne ranks 28th in explosive run rate and 40th in yards after contact per attempt. Since Week 10, it has been easier to run against the Buccaneers as they have had the seventh-lowest stuff rate while allowing the fourth-highest missed tackles per attempt and the 12th-highest yards per carry to gap runs (since Week 10 Etienne 62.8% gap). Week 16 Positional Value: RB1

Rachaad White: White is the RB8 in fantasy points per game, ranking fourth in snap share, eighth in opportunity share, fifth in weighted opportunities, and 14th in red zone touches. Since Week 12, he has averaged 22.6 touches and 122.6 total yards. Among 61 qualifying backs, White ranks 53rd in missed tackles forced per attempt and 51st in yards after contact per attempt. White is set for another banner day against a Jaguars run defense that has fallen off the map. Since Week 10, Jacksonville has allowed the second-highest explosive run rate, the eighth-most rushing yards per game, and the highest missed tackles per attempt. Week 16 Positional Value: RB1

Wide Receivers

Calvin Ridley: Ridley is the WR35 in fantasy points per game, but my lord, has it been a wild ride all season. Ridley has four weeks as a WR1 while finishing outside the top 45 wide receivers in weekly scoring in six weeks. Ridley should have a strong week against Tampa Bay. Since Week 10, they have utilized single-high on 56.3% of their defensive snaps. Against single-high, Ridley has a 25.6% target share, a 42.4% air-yard share, 2.21 YPRR, and a 29.4% first-read share. Since Week 9, Tampa Bay has allowed the 11th-highest PPR points per target and the second-highest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Week 16 Positional Value: WR2

Zay Jones: Jones has been dealing with a knee issue nearly all season, but he also picked up a hammy injury last week. He didn’t practice until Friday (limited). Doug Pederson described him as week-to-week on Friday. He has been listed as questionable, but I would consider him out this week.

Mike Evans: Evans continues to body bag corners weekly. He is the WR11 in fantasy points per game, ranking 12th in red zone targets. While Godwin was a beast last week, Evans still had a productive week as the WR19 in fantasy with 57 receiving yards and a score. Since Week 11, Jacksonville has had the sixth-highest rate of two high (55.1%). Against two high, Evans has had a 21.5% target share, a 37.5% air-yard share, 2.15 YPRR, and a 28.4% first-read share. Jacksonville has allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game and the 10th-highest yards per reception to wide receivers. Week 16 Positional Value: WR1

Chris Godwin: Godwin has had a disappointing season as the WR37 in fantasy points per game, ranking 20th in red zone targets. The Bucs have talked about getting Godwin going over the last few weeks, and it finally happened last week, with Godwin securing 10 of his 12 targets for 155 receiving yards and 25.5 PPR points. Godwin should continue rolling this week. Since Week 11, Jacksonville has had the sixth-highest rate of two high (55.1%). Against two high, Godwin has a 24.2% target share, a 31.7% air-yard share, 2.02 YPRR, and a 29.5% first-read share. Jacksonville has allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game and the 10th-highest yards per reception to wide receivers. Week 16 Positional Value: WR2

Tight Ends

Evan Engram: Engram is the TE6 in fantasy points per game with six red zone targets over his last seven games. Jacksonville has made it a point to get him the ball inside the 20-yard line lately. He has scored all three of his touchdowns this season over the last three games. Engram has a 20.8% target share, 1.57 YPRR, and a 22.8% first-read share. He should rip Tampa Bay in half. The Buccaneers have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game and the fifth-highest receiving yards per game to tight ends. Week 16 Positional Value: TE1

Cade Otton: Otton has been a TE2 with matchup-based streaming ability all season. He has performed well and posted four TE1 weeks in a favorable matchup. Well, this week’s matchup could lead to his fifth TE1 game. Otton has eight red zone targets across his last seven games, as the team has been getting him more involved near paydirt. Otton has a 12.2% target share, 0.98 YPRR, and an 11.7% first-read share. Jacksonville has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game and highest yards per reception to tight ends. Week 16 Positional Value: TE2 with TE1 upside

Arizona Cardinals vs. Chicago Bears

CHI -4, O/U 43
Cardinals vs. Bears Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

With Kyler Murray, Arizona has been 16th in neutral pace and 19th in neutral passing rate.
Since Week 12, Chicago has had the 13th-slowest neutral pace whale ranking tenth in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Kyler Murray: Murray finally encountered a week when his rushing equity couldn’t save his fantasy day. While he finished with 49 rushing yards last week, he didn’t get a rushing score and finished as the QB19 for the week. Murray had scored on the ground in three of his previous four games. He has only finished as a QB1 in two of his five starts. He has been struggling mightily as a passer. Since Week 10, among 32 qualifying passers, Murray ranks 25th in yards per attempt, 26th in passer rating, 30th in CPOE, and 27th in highly accurate throw rate. He runs into a defensive buzzsaw in Week 16. Since Week 10, the Bears have allowed the seventh-lowest yards per attempt, passing touchdowns, and CPOE. Chicago will sit back in Cover 3 all day and make Murray’s day a living hell. Week 16 Positional Value: QB2

Justin Fields: Since Week 4, Fields has been the QB9 in fantasy points per game, ranking 10th in CPOE, 14th in highly accurate throw rate, and seventh in fantasy points per dropback. Fields has rushed for at least 50 yards in 50% of his games this season while ranking fifth in red zone carries per game and second in rushing yards overall. Fields should have a monster day against an Arizona secondary that, since Week 10, has allowed the seventh-highest yards per attempt, the second-most passing touchdowns, the fourth-highest passer rating, and the second-highest CPOE. Week 16 Positional Value: QB1

Running Backs

James Conner: Since his return to the lineup, Conner has been the RB24 in fantasy points per game, averaging 16.8 touches and 72.4 total yards. Conner has been amazing this season, ranking 11th in explosive run rate, fourth in missed tackles forced per attempt, and sixth in yards after contact per attempt. Unfortunately, Conner draws a Bears run defense that has been elite all year. Since Week 10, Chicago has allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game, the sixth-lowest explosive run rate, the 10th-lowest rushing touchdown rate, and the eighth-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Week 16 Positional Value: RB2/3

Roschon Johnson: Johnson is the Bears running back flavor of the week. Just to make this clear, I have zero confidence in playing any Chicago running back right now. The Bears running back rotation has been unpredictable. Johnson played 74% of the snaps with 15 touches and 75 total yards in Week 12, only to see a 28% snap rate the following week. Last week, he played 49% of the snaps with nine touches and 60 total yards. Among 61 qualifying backs, Johnson ranks 42nd in missed tackles forced per attempt and 37th in yards after contact per attempt. If Johnson gets a similar workload to last week, he should be a strong flex play this week in a plus matchup. Since Week 10, Arizona has been unable to stop the run, allowing the seventh-highest explosive run rate, the most rushing yards per game, and the 10th-highest yards after contact per attempt. Week 16 Positional Value: RB3

Wide Receivers

Marquise Brown: Brown has been ruled out.

D.J. Moore: Moore is the WR10 in fantasy points per game, ranking 11th in deep targets and with only ten red zone targets this season (only three across his last five games). Since Week 10, Arizona has deployed two high at the highest rate in the NFL (70.8%). Against two high, Moore has a 24.5% target share, a 50.7% air-yard share, 2.00 YPRR, and a 38.1% first-read share. Moore should post video game numbers this week against a secondary that, since Week 10, has allowed the 10th-most PPR points per target and the ninth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Week 16 Positional Value: WR1

Tight Ends

Trey McBride: Since Week 8, McBride has been the TE1 in fantasy, seeing a 28.3% target share, a 24.5% air-yard share, 2.54 YPRR, and a 34% first-read share. McBride is 12th in red zone targets among tight ends. Any way you slice it, McBride has been elite. He should keep rolling this week against a Bears’ defense that has allowed the third-most fantasy points per game and the 11th-most receiving yards per game to tight ends. Week 16 Positional Value: TE1

Cole Kmet: Kmet is the TE8 in fantasy points per game, ranking sixth in red zone targets and second in total touchdowns among tight ends. Since Week 10, Arizona has deployed two high at the highest rate in the NFL (70.8%). Against two high, Kmet has a 19.3% target share, 1.78 YPRR, and a 19.8% first-read share. Arizona has faced the second-fewest tight end targets per game, but they have allowed the 10th-highest yards per reception to the position. Kmet picked up a quad injury on Thursday. He was limited in practice on Thursday and Friday. He has been listed as questionable. Week 16 Positional Value: TE1

Dallas Cowboys vs. Miami Dolphins

MIA -1.5, O/U 49.5
Cowboys vs. Dolphins Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

Since Week 8, Dallas has been sixth in neutral pace and eighth in neutral passing rate.
Over the same span, Miami has had the second-slowest neutral pace and the 10th-highest neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Dak Prescott: Since Week 8, Prescott has been the QB2 in fantasy behind only Josh Allen. Since Week 8, among 36 qualifying quarterbacks, Prescott has been sixth in yards per attempt, first in passing touchdowns, second in passer rating, and fourth in CPOE. Prescott will need all of his superhuman powers this week against what has become a crushing Miami Dolphins secondary. This South Beach secondary has been slamming quarterbacks’ hopes and dreams to the smithereens. Since Week 10, they have allowed the fourth-lowest yards per attempt, the lowest passer rating, and the sixth-lowest CPOE while forcing the second-most interceptions. Week 16 Positional Value: QB1

Tua Tagovailoa: Tagovailoa has descended into the QB2 realm as the QB15 in fantasy points per game. He continued his Jekyll and Hyde production this season with a QB23 showing last week against the Jets. Tagovailoa has five games this season as the QB10 or higher while also posting five games as the QB23 or lower in weekly scoring. This all balances out to a quarterback that still ranks second in CPOE and third in yards per attempt and passer rating. Tagovailoa looks headed for another QB2 outing this week. Since Week 10, Dallas has allowed the eighth-lowest yards per attempt and passer rating and the tenth-lowest CPOE. Week 16 Positional Value: QB2

Running Backs

Tony Pollard: Pollard is the RB18 in fantasy points per game, ranking eighth in snap share, fourth in weighted opportunities, and 12th in opportunity share. He has massively underperformed all season with the second-most red zone touches and as the RB7 in expected fantasy points per game. His most recent games have been much better, though. Since Week 12, he has averaged 19.5 touches and 84.8 total yards. Since Week 8, he is eighth in explosive run rate and 17th in yards after contact per attempt. Pollard will need a touchdown or healthy pass game usage again this week to pay off in fantasy. The Dolphins have shut down opposing rushing attacks. Since Week 10, they have given up the second-fewest rushing yards per game, the 11th-lowest missed tackles per attempt, and the third-lowest explosive run rate. Week 16 Positional Value: RB2

Raheem Mostert: Mostert could make an easy case as the best fantasy pick of the season. He is the RB5 in fantasy points per game, ranking eighth in carries, seventh in red zone touches, sixth in fantasy points per opportunity, and first in total touchdowns. Since Week 13 with Achane active, Mostert has averaged 17.0 touches and 64.6 total yards. Among 61 qualifying backs, he ranks seventh in explosive run rate, 15th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 11th in yards after contact per attempt. Mostert should be able to find running room this week against a Dallas run defense that was steamrolled last week by James Cook. Since Week 10, Dallas has the lowest stuff rate while ranking 21st in missed tackles allowed per attempt and 16th in yards after contact per attempt. Week 16 Positional Value: RB1/2

De’Von Achane: Last week, with Achane dealing with a toe issue, he played 39% of the snaps with 12 touches and 62 total yards. With the injury also playing a factor, Achane has been the clear RB2 in the red zone behind Mostert, with only five red zone rushing attempts over the last three weeks (Mostert 15). Achane has the talent to break any run for a long gain with his 12.5% explosive run rate, 35% missed tackles forced per attempt, and 4.04 yards after contact per attempt. With limited volume and red zone role, he’s only a flex/RB3. Since Week 10, Dallas has the lowest stuff rate while ranking 21st in missed tackles allowed per attempt and 16th in yards after contact per attempt. Week 16 Positional Value: RB3

Wide Receivers

CeeDee Lamb: Lamb is the WR2 in fantasy, ranking eighth in deep targets and first in red zone targets. He transformed into a matchup-proof alpha. He has a 27.6% target share, a 36.5% air-yard share, 2.65 YPRR, and a 32.3% first-read share. Lamb will have his work cut out for him this week. Since Week 9, Miami has allowed the lowest PPR points per target to slot receivers. Week 16 Positional Value: WR1

Brandin Cooks: Cooks rebounded from a slow start to the season as a serviceable running mate to Lamb despite being the WR48 in fantasy points per game. Since Week 8, Cooks has finished as a WR3 or better in 50% of his games with a 12.9% target share, a 20.6% air-yard share, 1.66 YPRR, and a 13.0% first-read share. Cooks belongs on benches this week. Since Week 9, Miami has allowed the 10th-lowest PPR points per target and the 13th-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Week 16 Positional Value: Sit

Tyreek Hill: Hill didn’t practice on Wednesday, but he was limited in practice on Thursday and Friday. He has been listed as questionable (ankle). He should be back this week. Hill is the WR1 in fantasy, ranking fourth in deep targets and seventh in red zone targets. Since Week 10, Dallas has utilized single-high at the second-highest rate in the NFL (66.4%). Against single-high, Hill has a 29.3% target share, a 41.1% air-yard share, 5.29 YPRR, and a 36.2% first-read share. Oh, my lord. Those numbers are absolutely insane. If Hill is remotely close to full health, he should have another gawd-mode game. Since Week 9, Dallas has allowed the 10th-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers while ranking 17th in receiving yards per game. Week 16 Positional Value: WR1

Jaylen Waddle: Waddle has come on strong as of late to pull himself up to WR20 in fantasy points per game. Waddle has finished as a top-20 fantasy wideout in three of his last four games (WR15, WR20, WR2). Since Week 10, Dallas has the second-highest rate of single-high (66.4%). Against single-high, Waddle has had a 21.8% target share, a 31.1% air-yard share, 2.81 YPRR, and a 26.4% first-read share. Since Week 9, Dallas has allowed the 10th-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers while ranking 17th in receiving yards per game. Week 16 Positional Value: WR2

Tight Ends

Jake Ferguson: Ferguson is the TE10 in fantasy points per game, ranking 11th in deep targets and first in red zone targets. He’s had a strong season, ranking ninth in receptions, eighth in receiving yards, and sixth in yards after the catch. Ferguson has emerged as the WR2 for Dallas. Since Week 8, he has had a 16.2% target share, 1.61 YPRR, and an 18.5% first-read share. This is a neutral matchup for tight ends. Miami sits at 19th in fantasy points per game and 14th in receiving yards per game (tied) allowed to tight ends. Week 16 Positional Value: TE1

NFL NFL Primers Start/Sit Weekly Advice Joe Flacco Case Keenum Jerome Ford Devin Singletary Nico Collins Noah Brown Amari Cooper Elijah Moore David Njoku Dalton Schultz Trevor Lawrence Baker Mayfield Travis Etienne Rachaad White Calvin Ridley Zay Jones Mike Evans Chris Godwin Evan Engram Cade Otton Kyler Murray Justin Fields James Conner Roschon Johnson Marquise Brown D.J. Moore Trey McBride Cole Kmet Dak Prescott Josh Allen Tua Tagovailoa Tony Pollard Raheem Mostert James Cook De’Von Achane CeeDee Lamb Brandin Cooks Tyreek Hill Jaylen Waddle Jake Ferguson