Derek Brown | Sat, Dec 23rd 2023, 6:57am EST

The Primer: Week 16 Edition (2023 Fantasy Football)

Seattle Seahawks vs. Tennessee Titans

SEA -3.5, O/U 41.5
Seahawks vs. Titans Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

In Geno Smith‘s last four starts, the Seahawks were third in neutral pace and second in neutral passing rate.
Since Week 11, the Titans have had the 11th-slowest neutral pace and the third-highest neutral rushing rate.

Quarterbacks

Geno Smith: After pushing hard to play last week, I expect Chef Geno to be back this week. Over his last four starts, Smith has more closely resembled Chef Geno. This week, he should return to cook the Titans’ secondary. Smith has two top-five QB finishes in his last four starts. Since Week 10, he ranks eighth in yards per attempt, 11th in passer rating, and 10th in hero throw rate. Smith is a QB1 this week, facing a burnable Tennessee secondary. Since Week 10, the Titans have allowed the ninth-highest yards per attempt and passer rating and the 13th-highest CPOE. Week 16 Positional Value: QB1

Will Levis: Levis has been listed as questionable (ankle). He didn’t practice until Friday this week and only on a limited basis. We’ll see if Levis goes, but even if it’s Ryan Tannehill under center neither will be more than a low-end QB2. Since Week 10, Seattle has allowed the 10th-highest yards per attempt and the seventh-most passing touchdowns while ranking 15th in CPOE. Week 16 Positional Value: QB2

Running Backs

Kenneth Walker: Walker has played 56% of the snaps in each of the last two games, averaging 17 touches and 83 total yards. Over the last two weeks, he has had a 33% missed tackle forced per attempt rate while ranking third in missed tackles forced. The Tennessee run defense has been tough over the last few games. Since Week 10, they have had the fifth-highest stuff rate, allowing the 14th-lowest rushing yards per game, the ninth-lowest rushing touchdown rate, and the fourth-lowest yards before contact per attempt. Walker is still a good bet for 15-20 touches with some pass-game work sprinkled in. Walker is dealing with a shoulder issue and didn’t practice until Friday (limited session). He has been listed as questionable and is expected to play. Week 16 Positional Value: RB2

Zach Charbonnet: Over the last two games, Charbonnet has averaged 43% of the snaps played with only seven touches and 32 total yards per game. He’s reverted to handcuff only status. Week 16 Positional Value: Sit

Derrick Henry: Henry is the RB16 in fantasy points per game, ranking 13th in opportunity share and weighted opportunities. Since Week 12, he has played anywhere from 40% to 64% of the snaps, averaging 19.8 touches and 64.3 total yards. Playing Henry with loads of confidence is a thing of the past. If a Titans’ game goes sideways and they find themselves trailing early, Henry’s snap share will ruin your day. It’s sad because Henry’s talent hasn’t fallen off. He ranks 14th in explosive run rate, 22nd in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 24th in yards after contact per attempt. If the Titans can keep this game close early and give Henry some volume, he could easily get rolling in Week 16. Since Week 10, Seattle has allowed the sixth-highest explosive run rate, the ninth-most rushing yards per game, and the 14th-highest yards after contact per attempt. Week 16 Positional Value: RB2

Tyjae Spears: Spears is a sneaky flex play this week. Over the last two weeks, he has averaged 59% of the snaps played with 11.5 touches and 77.5 total yards. Spears could easily lead the Titans’ backfield this week in production if the team finds itself down early. Spears ranks fifth in explosive run rates and ninth in yards after contact per attempt. He could see 12-15 touches in this game if the Titans’ are trailing 14-0 early. Since Week 10, Seattle has allowed the sixth-highest explosive run rate, the ninth-most rushing yards per game, and the 14th-highest yards after contact per attempt. Week 16 Positional Value: RB3

Wide Receivers

D.K. Metcalf: Metcalf has had an incredibly strong season as the WR18 in fantasy points per game. He ranks seventh in deep targets and fourth in red zone targets this season. As good as he has been, I don’t project him leading the way this week for the Seattle passing attack. Since Week 11, the Titans have had the seventh-highest rate of two-high (54.2%). Since Week 8 against two-high Metcalf has had a 15.1% target share, a 36.4% air-yard share, 2.02 YPRR, and a 21.4% first-read share. He could easily still cook the Titans outside corners on at least one play for a touchdown and save his day, though. Since Week 9, the Titans have allowed the ninth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Week 16 Positional Value: WR2

Tyler Lockett: Lockett is the WR34 in fantasy ranking 23rd in red zone targets and only 33rd in deep targets. He will be the tip of the spear for Chef Geno this week. Since Week 11, the Titans have had the seventh-highest rate of two-high (54.2%). Since Week 8 against two-high he has a 20.6% target share, a 44.9% air-yard share, 1.73 YPRR, and a 26.2% first-read share. Since Week 9, the Titans have allowed the ninth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Week 16 Positional Value: WR2

Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Smith-Njigba has started to heat up with five WR3 or better showings in his last nine games. In many weeks he remains the third option in the pecking order though, although the Seahawks have been making it a point to get him involved and force feed him the ball. Since Week 8, he ranks fourth in designed target rate (31.9%). Since Week 11, the Titans have had the seventh-highest rate of two-high (54.2%). Since Week 8 against two-high he has an 18.3% target share, 1.38 YPRR, and a 21.4% first-read share. Tennessee has sucked against boundary wide receivers this year, but they have fared surprisingly well against slot receivers. Since Week 9, they have held slot receivers to the fifth-lowest PPR points per target and the 12th-lowest passer rating when targeted. Smith-Njigba should compete with Metcalf for the second spot in the passing attack this week. Week 16 Positional Value: WR3

DeAndre Hopkins: Hopkins has been a volatile weekly dice roll this season because the quarterback play he’s had to deal with has been so up and down. Hopkins is the WR27 in fantasy points per game, ranking second in deep targets, eighth in red zone targets, 17th in receiving yards, and 19th in total touchdowns. Since Week 11, the Seahawks have deployed single-high at the 11th-highest rate (57.8%). Against single high this season, Hopkins has a 29.1% target share, a 49.1% air-yard share, 2.41 YPRR, and a 36.1% first-read share. Since Week 9, Seattle has allowed the ninth-fewest receiving yards per game to boundary wide receivers. Week 16 Positional Value: WR3

Tight Ends

Chigoziem Okonkwo: Okonkwo was an offseason hype darling, but he’s been one of the biggest disappointments this season as the TE27 in fantasy points per game. He has only four red zone targets all season, zero touchdowns, and only one TE1 finish. Since Week 11, the Seahawks have deployed single-high at the 11th-highest rate (57.8%). Against single high this season, he has served as the team’s second option in the passing game with a 12.8% target share, 1.24 YPRR, and a 13.3% first-read share. Seattle has allowed the ninth-most receiving yards per game to tight ends but only three receiving scores all season. Week 16 Positional Value: TE2

Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings

DET -3, O/U 47
Lions vs. Vikings Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

Since Week 11, Detroit has ranked third in neutral pace and 17th in neutral passing rate.
Last week, with Nick Mullens under center, the Vikings had the ninth-slowest neutral pace while ranking 14th in neutral rushing rate.

Quarterbacks

Jared Goff: After a surprisingly strong game last week against Denver, Goff is now the QB12 in fantasy. He has been a QB1 in three of his last six games. Overall he has been playing damn good football this season, ranking eighth in yards per attempt, seventh in passer rating, and 10th in CPOE. This week for Goff boils down to how well he can perform against the blitz. Minnesota has been an improved pass defense, but they have some weaknesses that have been masked, with Brian Flores disguising coverages and bringing the blitz. Minnesota still leads the NFL in blitz rate (47.7%). Against the blitz, Goff has struggled, ranking 16th in yards per attempt and adjusted completion rate with the 12th-highest turnover-worthy play rate. Since Week 10, Minnesota has given up the 11th-lowest yards per attempt and the fourth-fewest passing touchdowns, but they have also allowed the eighth-highest CPOE and the third-highest adjusted completion rate. If Goff can hold up against the blitz and his offensive line can buy him time, he could carve up Minnesota like he did Denver. Week 16 Positional Value: Borderline QB1

Nick Mullens: Last week, Mullens stepped in and performed quite well. He was the QB11 in fantasy passing for 303 yards with two scores and 9.1 yards per attempt. Mullens ranked fifth in CPOE, fourth in yards per attempt, and 11th in passer rating. He’s set for another strong outing in Week 16. Since Week 10, Detroit has allowed the 12th-most passing yards per game, the sixth-highest yard per attempt, the seventh-highest CPOE, and the sixth-most passing touchdowns. Week 16 Positional Value: Strong QB2 with low-end QB1 upside

Running Backs

David Montgomery: Since his Week 10 return, Montgomery has been game script sensitive, playing anywhere from 27-62% of the snaps weekly while averaging 15.3 touches and 84.5 total yards. Montgomery is the RB10 in fantasy points per game, ranking 15th in carries and seventh in red zone touches. He has been quite dependable, scoring a touchdown in 73% of the games he has played in. Since Week 13, Montgomery has lost the red zone battle with Gibbs with seven touches versus Gibbs’ nine. At this juncture, Montgomery is the early down hammer for Detroit, and he’s been excellent in this role. He ranks ninth in missed tackles forced per attempt and 10th in yards after contact per attempt. Montgomery likely needs a score to pay off playing him this week. Minnesota remains a brick wall against backs. Since Week 10, they have allowed the lowest explosive run rate, the third-lowest rushing yards per game, and the ninth-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Week 16 Positional Value: RB2

Jahmyr Gibbs: Gibbs is the RB6 in fantasy and has been crushing it after a slow start. He has finished lower than RB14 in weekly scoring only twice since Week 7. Since Week 10, he has averaged 13 touches and 82.4 total yards while edging out Montgomery in red zone work (nine vs. seven). He ranks second in explosive run rate, 10th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 12th in yards after contact per attempt. Gibbs will need every ounce of tackle-breaking juice this week against Minny. Since Week 10, they have allowed the lowest explosive run rate, the third-lowest rushing yards per game, and the ninth-lowest yards after contact per attempt. They have also stifled backs through the air, allowing the third-lowest yards per reception. Week 16 Positional Value: RB1/2

Ty Chandler: If you started Chandler last week, kudos. He likely led you to a Week 15 victory and is a major reason you’re reading this week’s Primer. Chandler played 81% of the snaps with 26 touches and 157 total yards to finish as the RB4 for the week. While the volume and production were amazing, his per-touch efficiency wasn’t great. Yes, he did have an 8.7% explosive run rate, but he also only tallied a 9% missed tackles forced per attempt rate and 2.0 yards after contact per attempt. Those are putrid tackle-breaking metrics. It matches what we’ve seen from him this season. Overall, he has had a 10% missed tackle rate and only 2.04 yards after contact per attempt. This is all to say that you should keep your expectations in check for Chandler this week against a tougher run defense. The volume will still be there, but it’s questionable at best if the production will be. Since Week 10, the Lions have had the sixth-highest stuff rate while also giving up the ninth-lowest missed tackles per attempt and the fifth-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Week 16 Positional Value: Volume driven RB2

Alexander Mattison: Alexander Mattison didn’t practice this week until he logged a limited session on Friday. Mattison has been listed as questionable, but he should be considered closer to doubtful. Even if Mattison plays, Chandler will be the clear lead back. Week 16 Positional Value: Sit

Wide Receivers

Amon-Ra St. Brown: St. Brown is the WR5 in fantasy points per game, ranking 12th in deep targets and 16th in red zone targets. He has crushed any preseason touchdown expectations with seven scores (11th-best). Since Week 11, Minnesota has utilized the highest rate of two-high in the NFL (71.3%). St. Brown should vacuum up targets again this week. Since Week 10 against two high, he has had a 30.8% target share, a 41.3% air-yard share, 4.11 YPRR, and a 37% first-read share. Since Week 9, Minnesota has allowed the 13th-highest PPR points per target and the 11th-highest passer rating when targeted to slot receivers. Week 16 Positional Value: WR1

Jameson Williams: Williams saw his usage spike last week, but this isn’t the week to chase that. Since Week 11, Minnesota has utilized the highest rate of two-high in the NFL (71.3%). Since Week 10, against two high, Williams has had a 7.7% target share and only 1.16 YPRR. Sit Williams if you have him rostered. Week 16 Positional Value: Sit

Kalif Raymond: OK, I know this is a random pull, but the coverage data loves Raymond this week. Since Week 11, Minnesota has utilized the highest rate of two-high in the NFL (71.3%). Since Week 10, against two high, Raymond has only had a 9% target share, but he has seen a 29% target per route run rate and had 3.04 YPRR and a 13% first-read share (tied for second on the team). If you are in a deep league and hurting, and I mean HURTING for a flex play. Consider Raymond this week. Week 16 Positional Value: DEEP league flex play

Justin Jefferson: Last week, Jefferson looked like Jefferson. He had a 95% route run rate, drawing a 29.4% target share and a 51.4% air-yard share with 2.27 YPRR and a 35.7% first-read share. Jefferson will shred the Lions’ secondary this week. Since Week 9, they have allowed the highest PPR points per target and the 11th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Week 16 Positional Value: WR1

Jordan Addison: Well, so much for Jefferson’s return rendering Addison useless. Addison finished as the WR1 overall in PPR scoring last week. He had a 17.6% target share, a 22.7% air-yard share, 3.36 YPRR, and a 14.3% first-read share (third on the team). The target share and the first-read share are concerning, though. Those are WR3-level usage numbers. Addison’s talent has allowed him to outperform his volume for most of the season and run hot. I won’t discount his ability to do so again this week, especially in a smash matchup. Since Week 9, Detroit has allowed the highest PPR points per target and the 11th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Week 16 Positional Value: WR2/3

Tight Ends

Sam LaPorta: Sammy Ballgame is the TE3 in fantasy, ranking fifth in targets, fourth in receptions and receiving yards, and first in total touchdowns. What he is doing as a rookie is legendary. With that said, LaPorta could have a more muted outing in Week 16. Since Week 11, Minnesota has utilized the highest rate of two-high in the NFL (71.3%). Against two high, Ballgame has had a 16.7% target share, only 0.89 YPRR, and a 15.5% first-read share. Minny has held tight ends to the 13th-lowest fantasy points per game and yards per reception this season. If you have Ballgame, you’re likely starting him and praying for a touchdown. Week 16 Positional Value: TE1

T.J. Hockenson: Hockenson is the TE2 in fantasy points per game, ranking first in targets and receptions, second in receiving yards, and seventh in yards after the catch. Last week, with Jefferson back, Hockenson handled a 20.6% target share and a 25% first-read share with 1.91 YPRR. He was the clear second option in the passing game. This week, it’s time for revenge game narratives to take flight. He should post another solid stat line against his former team that has allowed the 10th-most fantasy points per game and the 14th-highest yards per reception to tight ends. Week 16 Positional Value: TE1

Washington Commanders vs. New York Jets

NYJ -3, O/U 37
Commanders vs. Jets Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

Washington continues to hum along in slow-and-throw mode. Since Week 11, they have had the fifth-slowest neutral pace and the highest neutral passing rate.
Across their last six games, the Jets have ranked 21st in neutral pace while having the third-highest neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Sam Howell: Howell looks to draw the start this week after being replaced by Jacoby Brissett. Howell is the QB9 in fantasy points per game, and before he face-planted against the Rams, he had rattled off finishes of QB9, QB10, QB10, QB4, QB11, and QB1 over his last six games. Volume has been his ally all season to mask QB2-worthy metrics. He ranks 14th in CPOE, 13th in highly accurate throw rate, and 26th in fantasy points per dropback. We’ll see if he can make it through all four quarters of Week 16 because it won’t be easy. Since Week 10, New York has given up the 13th-lowest yards per attempt, the 12th-lowest passer rating, and the second-lowest CPOE and passing yards per game. I don’t want to put my fantasy playoff hopes in Howell’s hands. Week 16 Positional Value: QB2 / Sit

NYJ QBs: Trevor Siemian has been named the Week 16 starter. I’ll keep this short. I’m not putting my fantasy playoff hopes in the hands of any quarterback weaning a Jets uniform this season. Week 16 Positional Value: Sit

Running Backs

Brian Robinson: Robinson has been ruled out.

Antonio Gibson: Anyone hoping for bell cow Gibson last week was probably massively disappointed as he played 45% of the snaps with nine touches and 35 total yards. Gibson will split work with Chris Rodriguez again. This game environment feels disgusting. If you’re looking at Gibson for a flex spot, there are plenty of other options this week in better game environments with similar or better upside. The Jets run defense has also improved over the last few weeks. Since Week 10, they have the 12th-best stuff rate while also allowing the eighth-lowest explosive run rate and the 11th-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Week 16 Positional Value: Sit

Breece Hall: If you moved on to Week 16, Hall was likely not the reason. Last week, he played only 40% of the snaps with seven touches and 18 total yards. He was pulled in last week’s blowout loss, but hopefully, this week, he delivers a better stat line. This game sets up well for the Jets to play with a lead and feed Hall. Hall is the RB19 in fantasy, ranking 16th in opportunity share and ninth in weighted opportunities. He is 30th in carries and second in targets among backs. Across his previous eight games, he averaged 17.1 touches and 76.8 total yards. He ranks 11th in yards per touch, second in evaded tackles, and 11th in yards created per touch. Hall should have a good bounce-back outing against a run defense that, since Week 9, has allowed the 11th-highest rushing touchdown rate, the 13th-most rushing yards per game, and the third-highest yards after contact per attempt. Week 16 Positional Value: RB2

Wide Receivers

Terry McLaurin: McLaurin bumped up his stock with his first monster game of the season last week. He is the WR36 in fantasy points per game, ranking 19th in deep targets. Last week was his first game with double-digit fantasy points since Week 9. Since Week 11, the Jets have operated in two high on 53.1% (11th-highest) of their defensive snaps. In the last 11 games that McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, and Jahan Dotson have been full-time players, McLaurin has seen a 19.5% target share, a 31.6% air-yard share, and a 25.2% first-read share with 1.26 YPRR against two high. McLaurin likely sees plenty of volume in this matchup, but facing a secondary that has allowed the 12th-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers since Week 9 won’t be easy. Week 16 Positional Value: WR3/4

Curtis Samuel: Samuel has been on fire recently, but I don’t want to get caught point-chasing this week. Since Week 11, the Jets have operated in two high on 53.1% (11th-highest) of their defensive snaps. In the last 11 games that McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, and Jahan Dotson have been full-time players, Samuel has had a 16.9% target share, 1.69 YPRR, and a 21.1% first-read share against two high. Samuel will likely lead the Commanders in receiving production this week, but that could be a low bar to clear. Since Week 9, the Jets have allowed the sixth-lowest PPR points per target to slot receivers. Week 16 Positional Value: WR4

Jahan Dotson: Dotson is the WR61 in fantasy points per game and hasn’t posted double-digit fantasy points since Week 12. Since Week 11, the Jets have operated in two high on 53.1% (11th-highest) of their defensive snaps. In the last 11 games that McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, and Jahan Dotson have been full-time players, Dotson has had an 11.8% target share with 0.61 YPRR and a 15.4% first-read share against two high. Since Week 9, the Jets have allowed the 12th-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Week 16 Positional Value: Sit

Garrett Wilson: Wilson is the WR29 in fantasy points per game, ranking fifth in deep targets and 13th in red zone targets. He has been a volume play all season, and that’s exactly what he is again this week in a glorious matchup. Since Week 11, the Commanders have utilized two high at the eighth-highest rate (54.2%). Against two high, Wilson has a 24.5% target share, a 44.7% air-yard share, 1.57 YPRR, and a 36.1% first-read share. Wilson should decimate this porous secondary. Since Week 9, Washington has allowed the 12th-most PPR points per target and the seventh-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Week 16 Positional Value: WR2

Tight Ends

Logan Thomas: Thomas flopped in a great matchup last week with only three targets, one reception, and seven receiving yards. There’s no way we can trust him this week in fantasy lineups. The Jets have allowed the 14th-fewest fantasy points per game and the ninth-lowest receiving yards per game to tight ends. Week 16 Positional Value: Sit

Green Bay Packers vs. Carolina Panthers

GB -4, O/U 37.5
Packers vs. Panthers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

Since Week 11, Carolina has ranked second in neutral rushing rate with the sixth-slowest neutral pace.
In the same span, Green Bay has been 21st in neutral pace and 13th in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Jordan Love: Love is the QB11 in fantasy with QB1 weeks in four of his last six games. Love is just another run-of-the-mill QB2 this week. He ranks 21st in yards per attempt, 17th in passer rating, and 11th in fantasy points per dropback. Carolina’s offense might be a bottom-dwelling unit, but their pass defense has been strong all season. Since Week 10, Carolina has allowed the second-lowest yards per attempt, the lowest passing yards per game, and the seventh-fewest passing touchdowns. Over their last six games, Carolina has allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points via passing to quarterbacks. Week 16 Positional Value: QB2

Bryce Young: If you’re in the fantasy playoffs, it’s not because of Young. His 2023 fantasy ledger has been a sad story. Toss him in the bucket of quarterbacks that will not dictate your Week 16 fantasy hopes. Week 16 Positional Value: See ya in 2024

Running Backs

Aaron Jones: Jones returned last week to play 48% of the snaps with 17 touches and 69 total yards. Jones still doesn’t look right from a tackle-breaking perspective. Last week, he didn’t force a single missed tackle and had only 1.38 yards after contact per attempt. At this point in the season, this is probably what we should expect from Jones. If he emerged from this game without any further dings, he could see a few more snaps this week, inching closer to the mid-50 % snap range. Since Week 10, Carolina has remained a team that can be run on with success as they have allowed the seventh-highest missed tackles per attempt, the 11th-highest rushing touchdown rate, and the 14th-highest yards per carry to zone runs (Jones 53.8% zone last week). Week 16 Positional Value: RB2

A.J. Dillon: Dillon has been listed as a limited participant all week. He has been listed as questionable this week. LaFleur has stated that he is comfortable with where Dillon is with ball security. I don’t buy this smokescreen for a second. I didn’t buy into any of this fluff last week when the team discussed Dillon possibly playing with a broken thumb, and I’m not buying version 2.0, coming only a week after he broke his thumb. I expect Dillon to be ruled out eventually, but even if he is active, I would have no confidence in playing him. Week 16 Positional Value: Sit

Chuba Hubbard: Since Week 12, Hubbard has been the RB11 in fantasy points per game. He has played 64-78% of the snaps weekly, averaging 23.3 touches and 98.8 total yards. Since Week 12, among 65 qualifying rushers, Hubbard has ranked 38th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 46th in yards after contact per attempt. The Packers continue to be unable to stop the run. Since Week 10, they have allowed the second-most rushing yards per game, the fourth-highest explosive run rate, and the fifth-highest yards after contact per attempt. Week 16 Positional Value: RB2

Wide Receivers

Christian Watson: Watson has not practiced all week, and yet, instead of being ruled out, the team has listed him as doubtful. Watson is not playing this week. It’s just another case of Green Bay playing games with the injury report.

Jayden Reed: Reed is dealing with a toe issue and hasn’t practiced all week. I doubt he will play this week, but the Packers have listed him as questionable. I would look to other options for your fantasy lineups this week. Even if he is active (I don’t think he will be), he might be a limited snap player.

Romeo Doubs: Doubs is the WR46 in fantasy points per game, ranking 13th in red zone targets. Doubs has disappeared over the last month with only one game with double-digit PPR points since Week 11. Since Week 11, Carolina has deployed single high on 59.1% of their defensive snaps (sixth-highest rate). Against single-high, Doubs has a 15.9% target share, a 24.2% air-yard share, 1.08 YPRR, and a 19.2% first-read share. Since Week 9, Carolina has held perimeter wide receivers to eighth-lowest PPR points per target. Week 16 Positional Value: WR4/5

Dontayvion Wicks: Wicks opened the week with a limited practice (ankle). Last week, Wicks led the way for Green Bay with a 17.9% target share, a 23.3% air-yard share, 3.46 YPRR, and a 24.1% first-read share. Tampa Bay is another single-high heavier team (55.8% since Week 11). Since Week 11, Carolina has deployed single high on 59.1% of their defensive snaps (sixth-highest rate). Wicks should lead the way again this week, especially if Reed sits. Against single-high, Wicks has a 22% target per route run rate and 2.19 YPRR. Since Week 9, Carolina has held perimeter wide receivers to eighth-lowest PPR points per target. Week 16 Positional Value: WR4

Adam Thielen: Since Week 8, Thielen has looked like the ordinary receiver that we saw for much of last season in Minnesota. Over his last eight games, he has had a 23.6% target share, a 25.1% air-yard share, 1.29 YPRR, and a 29.5% first-read share. Thielen has finished as a WR3 or better in only four of his last eight games. He hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 6 despite six red zone targets since that game. Since Week 9, the Packers have allowed the seventh-most PPR points per target to slot receivers. Thielen will run about 70% of his routes against Keisean Nixon (79.4% catch rate and 96.8 passer rating). Week 16 Positional Value: WR3

Tight Ends

Tucker Kraft: Since assuming the starting job in Week 12, Kraft has been the TE11 in fantasy points per game with a 12.3% target share, 1.44 YPRR, and a 13.7% first-read share. His role has grown weekly. In Week 15, he had a 15.4% target share with 1.54 YPRR and a 20.7% first-read share. Since Week 11, Carolina has deployed single high on 59.1% of their defensive snaps (sixth-highest rate). Against single-high, Kraft has 1.44 YPRR. This is a tough matchup for Kraft. Carolina has given up the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game and the fifth-fewest receiving yards per game to tight ends. Week 16 Positional Value: TE2

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The Primer: Week 16 Edition (2023 Fantasy Football)

Seattle Seahawks vs. Tennessee Titans

Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings

Washington Commanders vs. New York Jets

Green Bay Packers vs. Carolina Panthers

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