The Primer: Week 16 Edition (2023 Fantasy Football)

We’re almost there. Can you smell it? Can you taste it? The sweet aroma of Fantasy Football championships will soon permeate the air. For many fantasy gamers, win in Week 16, and you punch your ticket into the championship game. Oh, it will be glorious. The trophy. The prize money. The bragging rights. Well, enough talk. Let’s get to setting those lineups.

Welcome to the Week 16 Primer. Enjoy.

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Fantasy Football Primer

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

CIN -3, O/U 38
Bengals vs. Steelers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

The Bengals have operated like Jake Browning is Joe Burrow. With Browning as the starter, Cincinnati has ranked fifth in neutral pace and 12th in neutral passing rate.
Since Week 12, the Steelers have had the sixth-slowest neutral pace with the fourth-highest neutral rushing rate.

Quarterbacks

Jake Browning: Since Week 13, Browning has been the QB4 in fantasy points per game with weekly performances of QB4, QB3, and QB8. He has been studly in fantasy. Most of his production has been on underneath looks, but the Bengals are making it work. Since Week 13, among 38 qualifying quarterbacks, he is second in yards per attempt, third in CPOE, and fourth in fantasy points per dropback, but he is 38th in aDOT and has the third-highest percentage of passing yards coming after the catch. The Steelers have fielded an average pass defense. Since Week 10, they sit at 17th in yards per attempt, 18th in CPOE, and have given up the 13th-highest passer rating. Over that span, they have allowed the 12th-most fantasy points via passing thanks to the sixth-most passing touchdowns allowed. Browning could continue his improbable run of strong fantasy starts this week. Week 16 Positional Value: QB2

Mason Rudolph: The last time we saw Rudolph with an extended run as the Steelers’ starter it was in 2019, when his cup of coffee lasted eight games. He averaged only 190.5 passing yards with 6.2 yards per attempt and a 10:8 passing touchdown to interception ratio. This matchup is glorious this week for Rudolph. Still, I don’t envision a scenario where the Steelers allow the emergency QB3 that they are turning to in desperation to chuck it like crazy. Rudolph will be a game manager who can turn in decent QB2 numbers this week. Since Week 10, Cincy has allowed the second-most passing yards per game and the third-highest yards per attempt and CPOE. Week 16 Positional Value: QB2

Running Backs

Joe Mixon: Since Chase Brown’s emergence, Mixon has played 63-71% of snaps weekly, averaging 20.7 touches and 101 total yards. Don’t get it twisted. This remains Mixon’s backfield. Since Week 8, Mixon has seen a small resurgence in his tackle-breaking ability. Among 45 qualifying backs, he ranks 11th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 28th in yards after contact per attempt. Since Week 11, the Steelers have held backs the 10th-fewest rushing yards per game, but they have also allowed the fourth-highest missed tackle per attempt rate and the 14th-highest yards after contact per attempt. Mixon should be fed a boatload of volume and have another nice game. Week 16 Positional Value: RB1

Weeks 12-15

Player	Rushing attempts	Targets	Routes	Red zone opportunities
Najee Harris	55	6	47	10
Jaylen Warren	39	17	67	7

Najee Harris: Harris is the RB35 in fantasy points per game, ranking 24th in weighted opportunities and 33rd in red zone touches. He continues to split work with Jaylen Warren. Harris has held the edge on early downs and in the red zone, while Warren has been the team’s passing down back. Since Week 8, Harris ranks 18th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 20th in yards after contact per attempt. The Bengals run defense remains a porous unit. Since Week 10, they have the 11th-lowest stuff rate, the highest yards before contact per attempt, and the fourth-highest rushing touchdown rate allowed. Week 16 Positional Value: RB3

Jaylen Warren: Warren and Harris are riding in the same RB3 canoe, as he’s the RB29 in fantasy points per game this season. The Steelers’ offense has been the great limiting factor for Warren this season who has destroyed every efficiency metric. Warren ranks third in yards created per touch, seventh in yards per touch, and 16th in fantasy points per opportunity. Warren ranks second in missed tackles forced per attempt and third in yards after contact per attempt. Since Week 12, he has averaged 13.1 touches and 56.3 total yards. In that timeframe, he has been the team’s preferred passing down back while getting out-touched in the red zone 10 to seven by Harris. If the Bengals jump out to an early lead, Warren could be the most productive back for Pittsburgh in Week 16. Cincinnati is still a team that can be run on. Since Week 10, they have the 11th-lowest stuff rate, the highest yards before contact per attempt, and the fourth-highest rushing touchdown rate allowed. Week 16 Positional Value: RB3

Wide Receivers

Source: #Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase suffered an AC joint sprain, but the team is optimistic about his prognosis moving forward. @BleacherReport

Expect Cincinnati to proceed cautiously, as I’m told Chase is likely to miss at “least one week” — putting his status for the #Steelers… pic.twitter.com/y9bfQp5i4G

— Jordan Schultz (@Schultz_Report) December 20, 2023

Ja’Marr Chase: Chase will be out this week.

Tee Higgins: With Browning under center, Higgins has had a 14.2% target share, a 47.4% air-yard share, a 17.7 aDOT, and a 17.6% first-read share as the team’s downfield threat. If Chase is sidelined, Higgins could step up as the team’s WR1. Higgins has not been utilized in the red zone much across his last five games, with only three red zone targets. It’s been a season of feast or famine for Higgins with three games with at least 19.0 or higher PPR points, but he’s also finished as the WR47 or lower four times. Higgins could get shadowed by Joey Porter Jr. (45.5% catch rate and 64.9 passer rating). This week, but it’s possible he avoids it. Last week, before Michael Pittman left the game, Porter only followed him on 33% of his routes. Since Week 8, Porter has shadowed Calvin Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins, Amari Cooper, Ja’Marr Chase, and Marquise Brown on 50-89.5% of their routes, with only Chase surpassing 50 receiving yards in his coverage. Higgins’ range of outcomes this week is wide, but he could walk away from Week 16 with a nice stat line. Week 16 Positional Value: WR2/3

Tyler Boyd: With Browning chucking passes, Boyd has only seen a 12.3% target share with 1.66 YPRR and a 12.2% first-read share. Overall, Boyd is the WR53 in fantasy this season with only four games as a WR3 or better (WR34, WR17, WR10, WR31). Browning has been looking for Boyd inside the 20 with three red zone looks over his last three games. Add in that slot receivers have torched Pittsburgh, and Boyd becomes an interesting flex play in Week 16, especially if Chase misses this game. Since Week 9, Pittsburgh has allowed the second-most PPR points per target and receiving touchdowns to opposing slot receivers. Week 16 Positional Value: High upside flex

Diontae Johnson: Since his Week 7 return, Johnson has a 24.7% target share, a 43.4% air-yard share, 1.80 YPRR, and a 31.1% first-read share. Volume and touchdown luck have helped Johnson continue to remain strong in fantasy, with at least seven targets in six of his last eight games and a score in each of his last three outings. If Mason Rudolph can feed him league-average target quality, it should be another decent week for Johnson. Since Week 9, Cincinnati has allowed the eighth-most PPR points per target and the third-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Week 16 Positional Value: WR3

George Pickens: With Johnson back in the huddle, Pickens has had an 18.8% target share, a 34.6% air-yard share, 1.54 YPRR, and a 22.3% first-read share. Pickens is tough to trust in the fantasy playoffs, with only one double-digit fantasy outing since Week 8. He also has zero red zone role with only one target inside the 20-yard line across his last six games. If you are forced to play Pickens, I get it, but in most formats, I’m sitting him. The lone bright spot is that the matchup is glowing this week. Since Week 9, Cincinnati has allowed the eighth-most PPR points per target and the third-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Week 16 Positional Value: WR4/5

Tight Ends

Pat Freiermuth: Since his Week 11 return, Freiermuth has a 17.3% target share, 1.73 YPRR, a 19.3% first-read share, and one end-zone target, outside of one monster game against the Bengals, which, yes, I know he plays them again this week, he has been unstartable in fantasy. Outside of the last meeting with the Bengals, he hasn’t surpassed 30 receiving yards in any game. Could Freiermuth blow up again this week in an advantageous matchup that we’ve already seen him crush in? Yep. It could definitely happen, but also, you have to believe the Bengals will gear up to put a stop to him after he stomped them in Week 12. It’s a worthwhile question to ask: even if they concentrate their efforts on slowing down Freiermuth, can they fully erase him from the game because they have struggled against tight ends all season? The Bengals have allowed the most fantasy points per game and receiving yards per game to tight ends this season. Week 16 Positional Value: TE2 with TE1 upside

Buffalo Bills vs. Los Angeles Chargers

BUF -12, O/U 44
Bills vs. Chargers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

With Joe Brady calling the shots, Buffalo has turned into the Eagles of 2022 with the third-highest neutral pace and the 12th-highest neutral rushing rate.
The Bolts continue to run fast and throw a ton. Since Week 14, they rank ninth and second in neutral pace and passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Josh Allen: Last week’s 16.2 fantasy points from Allen weren’t what you expected, but they hopefully didn’t end your fantasy football title hopes either. Allen has remained a stud overall, with Brady calling the plays with QB5, QB1, and QB9 weekly outings prior to Week 15. Allen remains the QB1 in fantasy. Allen ranks 12th in passer rating, 13th in CPOE, and 17th in hero throw rate. This is a great spot for Brady to feature the passing game in a “get right” spot. Since Week 10, the Chargers have allowed the 12th-highest yards per attempt, the second-most passing touchdowns, and the sixth-highest passer rating. Week 16 Positional Value: QB1

Easton Stick: Last week, Stick garbage-timed his way to a QB13 finish. While that helped fantasy managers in a pinch in Superflex formats, Stick shouldn’t be in your lineup unless you’re in a Superflex league. Over the last two weeks, his real-life quarterback play has been what we should expect from a long-time backup thrust into the starter’s chair. Among 35 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 29th in CPOE, 19th in highly accurate throw rate, and 19th in fantasy points per dropback. Since Week 10, Buffalo has allowed the lowest yards per attempt, the sixth-lowest passer rating, and the 11th-lowest CPOE. It’s a brutal matchup. The Bills have allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season. Week 16 Positional Value: QB2

Running Backs

James Cook: Cook has been a fantasy monster since Joe Brady has taken over. Since Week 11, Cook has averaged 21 touches and 140.1 total yards as the RB3 in fantasy points per game. He has finished as the RB10, RB12, RB3, and RB2 in weekly fantasy scoring. Cook has done all of this while only playing 43-56% of the snaps weekly. Overall, Cook is now the RB12 in fantasy points per game, ranking 10th in carries, 21st in opportunity share, and 16th in weighted opportunities. Cook is set up to absolutely smash again this week. The Chargers have fallen off as a run defense. Since Week 10, Los Angeles has allowed the eighth-highest explosive run rate and the fourth-most rushing yards per game while also having the sixth-lowest stuff rate. Cook has taken over as a stretch-run league winner. Week 16 Positional Value: RB1

Austin Ekeler: Ekeler’s usage bottomed out last week with only 40% of the snaps played with nine touches and 38 total yards. We’ll see if Ekeler’s role bounces back this week, but I expect it to. Brandon Staley was flailing about trying to fix a broken offense and team. I expect, with interim coaches in place, that they turn back to Ekeler as the clear lead. If any other running back on the roster had proven themselves to be a clear better option, I wouldn’t feel this way, but Joshua Kelley and Isaiah Spiller have performed like league-average talents all year. Since Week 11, Ekeler has continued to look like a running back past his prime among 50 qualifying running backs, ranking 40th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 42nd in explosive run rate. Since Week 10, the Bills have given up the 13th-fewest rushing yards per game, the second-lowest missed tackles per attempt and yards after contact per attempt, and the 12th-lowest rushing touchdown rate. Week 16 Positional Value: Shaky RB2

Wide Receivers

Stefon Diggs: Diggs’ fantasy production has been abysmal since Week 10, as he’s finished as the WR45 or lower in four of his last five games. This looks like a wonderful bounce-back spot for Diggs, though. Diggs is still the WR9 in fantasy points per game, ranking 16th in deep targets and 15th in red zone targets. Since Week 10, the Chargers have deployed single-high at the 11th-highest rate (57.1%). This season against single-high, Diggs has had a 29.8% target share, a 39.4% air-yard share, 2.18 YPRR, and a 38.7% first-read share. He’s tied for the team lead with five end-zone targets. Since Week 9, the Bolts have allowed the fourth-most PPR points per target and the 12th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Week 16 Positional Value: WR1

Gabe Davis: Davis has been the fantasy rollercoaster that we all expected entering this season. He is the WR51 in fantasy points per game with four top 15 WR finishes this season. The problem is that he has also finished outside the top 60 fantasy wide receivers in weekly scoring six times. The question weekly on whether or not to “Gabe Davis” is simple. Does the secondary he is facing struggle against deep passing? For the Chargers, the answer is a loud YES! Since Week 10, they have allowed the fourth-most deep passing touchdowns, the fifth-highest deep passer rating, and the eighth-highest deep-adjusted completion rate. Davis ranks 14th among wide receivers in deep targets and 23rd in red zone targets. Since Week 10, the Chargers have deployed single-high at the 11th-highest rate (57.1%). Against single-high, Davis is tied for the team lead in end-zone targets with five. Week 16 Positional Value: Boom potential WR4

Keenan Allen: Allen has been ruled out.

Joshua Palmer: Last week, Palmer returned to the lineup with a 69.4% route run rate, a 12.5% target share, and a 20% first-read share. In his five games without Mike Williams in the lineup, Palmer has had a 17.2% target share, a 32.5% air-yard share, 2.61 YPRR, and a 20% first-read share. The volume and usage should be there this week, but there’s no reason to discuss his production because taking the step down from Justin Herbert to Easton Stick is massive. Palmer’s outlook improves from a volume perspective if Allen sits. Since Week 9, Buffalo has allowed the ninth-lowest PPR points per target and the fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Week 16 Positional Value: WR4

Quentin Johnston: In the five games with Palmer active and no Mike Williams, Johnston has been irrelevant. He has had only a 9.8% target share, a 21.4% air-yard share, 0.98 YPRR, and a 10.5% first-read share. Johnston should not be on fantasy rosters at this point in the season. Week 16 Positional Value: Droppable

Tight Ends

Dalton Kincaid: Over the last two weeks with Dawson Knox back, Kincaid has had a 67.6% route run rate, a 15.8% target share, 0.46 YPRR, and a 12.9% first-read share (third on the team behind Diggs and Cook). The usage has still been solid but not amazing. The production simply hasn’t been there, though. Since taking over the starting tight end job in Week 7, Kincaid is the TE12 in fantasy points per game and has six red zone targets. The Chargers offer a great matchup for a rebound game. The Bolts have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game and the eighth-most receiving yards per game to tight ends. Week 16 Positional Value: TE1

Gerald Everett: Since Week 12, Everett has taken over the Bolts’ starting tight-end job with a 58.4% route run rate, a 16.1% target share, 1.65 YPRR, and a 14.3% first-read share. Over the last four weeks, Everett has been the TE13 in fantasy points per game with one TE1 game (TE6). He has seen four red zone looks during this stretch. Without Matt Milano, the Bills have allowed the 13th-most fantasy points per game (tied) to tight ends. Week 16 Positional Value: TE2 with possible TE1 upside

Indianapolis Colts vs. Atlanta Falcons

ATL -2.5, O/U 45
Colts vs. Falcons Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

With Minshew as the starter, the Colts have ranked first in neutral pace and ninth in neutral passing rate.
Since Week 11, Atlanta ranks 12th in neutral pace and first in neutral rushing rate.

Quarterbacks

Gardner Minshew: Minshew is the QB23 in fantasy points per game with three QB1 weeks. All of Minshew’s peripherals line up with QB2 production. He is 25th in yards per attempt, 23rd in passer rating, and 34th in CPOE. Don’t expect much more than that from Minshew this week. Atlanta’s pass defense has improved. Since Week 10, they have ranked 15th in yards per attempt while holding passers the lowest CPOE and the fewest passing touchdowns. Week 16 Positional Value: QB2 / Sit

Taylor Heinicke: I don’t trust Arthur Smith at all. This lack of faith extends to the Falcon’s quarterback. Smith is flailing for answers right now, which includes the revolving door at quarterback. Heinicke has one uninspiring full game under his belt this season and two other small cups of coffee. I would not put it past Smith to bench Heinicke this week if he gets off to a slow start. Nothing is off the table, so I can’t play Heinicke this week. Before you say, “Oh, that will never happen,” you have seen the running back usage, right? You have seen the lack of usage of Kyle Pitts for most of the season, right? Never say never with this team. Week 16 Positional Value: Sit

Running Backs

Jonathan Taylor: Taylor has practiced in full all week. He’s back, but the question is what his workload will look like. I would love to have all the faith in the world that he is a bell-cow this week, but it’s tough to forecast that. Yes, it’s a thumb issue and not a knee or hammy, but it’s still difficult to project him getting a 70% or higher snap share this week. I do think Taylor will be the lead back for the Colts and, at the very least, get the high-leverage work for Indy. Looking at his workloads in Weeks 7-8 are probably a good benchmark for what we should expect, with him playing 50-61% of the snaps while averaging 17 touches and 108.5 total yards. Since Week 7, among 45 qualifying backs, Taylor ranks fifth in missed tackles forced per attempt and seventh in yards after contact per attempt. Since Week 10, Atlanta has been 14th in rushing yards per game allowed, with the fourth-lowest missed tackles per attempt and the sixth-lowest yards after contact per attempt allowed. Week 16 Positional Value: RB2

Zack Moss: Moss hasn’t practiced all week, but he has been listed as questionable. It’s impossible to trust him in the fantasy playoffs this week, even if he is active. I think he will likely miss this week’s game, so the decision on whether to play or sit him will take care of itself. Week 16 Positional Value: Sit

Bijan Robinson: So, we’re doing this again, huh, Arthur? Ok. Last week, Robinson played 58% of the snaps with eight touches and 14 total yards. I have no words at this point. In many instances, fantasy GMs have no other choice but to turn back to Robinson this week and hope for the best. This is not a Robinson problem. I know I shouldn’t have to clarify that, but here we are. Robinson has averaged 15.5 touches and 80.3 total yards as the RB20 in fantasy. He ranks eighth in weighted opportunities, 18th in carries, fourth in targets, and 31st in red zone touches. Yes, 31st in red zone touches. Robinson ranks seventh in missed tackles forced per attempt and 33rd in yards after contact per attempt. Robinson faces an Indy run defense that, since Week 10, has allowed the 10th-most rushing yards per game, the 12th-highest yards before contact per attempt, and the ninth-lowest stuff rate. Week 16 Positional Value: Stress Diarrhea-inducing RB2

Wide Receivers

Michael Pittman: Pittman has been ruled out (concussion).

Josh Downs: Over the last three games, Downs has been a ghost. He has only seen a 10.8% target share, a 4.2% air-yard share, and a 13.7% first-read share with 0.76 YPRR. With Pittman sidelined last week in a smash matchup, he should have eaten, but instead, he finished with three grabs and 19 receiving yards. The small sliver of hope for Downs is that Atlanta moved Mike Hughes into slot coverage last week. Hughes hasn’t been good this season, allowing a 63.6% catch rate and 110.4 passer rating in coverage. Downs could recapture his early season form this week, but I’m not hopeful. In most leagues, I would be sitting him. Week 16 Positional Value: Sit

Drake London: London was also a ghost last week. For the second time this season Carolina held him below 30 receiving yards. This coming after a week winning performance against Tampa Bay. London is the WR41 in fantasy points per game ranking 28th in deep targets and 23rd in red zone targets. Since Week 10, the Colts have deployed single high on 56.2% of their defensive snaps. Against single high, London has a 17.9% target share, a 27.0% air-yard share, 1.53 YPRR, and a 23.1% first-read share. The matchup is good for London this week, but the ceiling doesn’t look particularly high for him this week. Since Week 10, Indy has allowed the 12th-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Week 16 Positional Value: WR3/4

Tight Ends

Kyle Pitts: Pitts is the TE16 in fantasy points per game with only one red zone target and receiving touchdown over his last eight games. Since Week 10, the Colts have deployed single high on 56.2% of their defensive snaps. Against single high, Pitts has had an 18.4% target share (leads the team), a 28.3% air-yard share, 1.82 YPRR, and a 22.1% first-read share. Indy has allowed the 11th-most fantasy points per game and the 10th-most receiving yards per game to tight ends. Pitts could have his best game of the season this week. Week 16 Positional Value: Borderline TE1

NFL NFL Primers Start/Sit Weekly Advice Jake Browning Joe Burrow Mason Rudolph Joe Mixon Najee Harris Jaylen Warren Ja’Marr Chase Tee Higgins Joey Porter Jr. Michael Pittman Calvin Ridley DeAndre Hopkins Amari Cooper Marquise Brown Tyler Boyd Diontae Johnson George Pickens Pat Freiermuth Josh Allen Easton Stick James Cook Austin Ekeler Joshua Kelley Isaiah Spiller Stefon Diggs Gabe Davis Keenan Allen Joshua Palmer Mike Williams Justin Herbert Quentin Johnston Dalton Kincaid Dawson Knox Gerald Everett Matt Milano Gardner Minshew Taylor Heinicke Kyle Pitts Jonathan Taylor Zack Moss Bijan Robinson Josh Downs Mike Hughes Drake London