The Primer: Week 15 Edition (2023 Fantasy Football)

San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals

SF -12.5, O/U 48
49ers vs. Cardinals Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

This offense officially revolves around Brock Purdy. Since Week 9, while the 49ers have been dead last in neutral pace, they have passed at the tenth-highest rate.
With Kyler Murray under center, the Cardinals have been 13th in neutral pace and 17th in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Brock Purdy: Purdy is now the QB5 in fantasy points per game. Yep, you can read that 15 times in a row, and it’s still true. Purdy ranks first in yards per attempt and passer rating, fourth in passing yards per game, and third in CPOE. He should decimate an Arizona secondary that, since Week 9, has allowed the 10th-highest yards per attempt, the fifth-most passing touchdowns, and the sixth-highest passer rating. Week 15 Positional Value: QB1

Kyler Murray: Murray has been wildly inconsistent since his return, with two QB1 outings (QB6, QB9) and two QB2 weeks (QB13, QB18). He has averaged 26.5 rushing yards per game with three rushing scores, which has helped to mask his poor real-life quarterback play. Among 42 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 29th in yards per attempt, 40th in CPOE, and 32nd in highly accurate throw rate. Murray is set for an excruciatingly long day in Week 15. The 49ers’ shutdown pass defense has returned. Since Week 10, they have given up the 12th-lowest yards per attempt, the fifth-fewest passing touchdowns, the fifth-lowest passer rating, and the 13th-fewest fantasy points via passing. Week 15 Positional Value: QB2

Running Backs

Christian McCaffrey: McCaffrey remains the RB1 in fantasy, ranking second in snap share, fourth in opportunity share, first in weighted opportunities, and first in red zone touches. He has averaged 21.4 touches and 124.1 total yards per game. McCraffey will have a field day against a run defense that, since Week 9, has allowed the second-highest yards before contact per attempt, the fourth-most rushing yards per game, and the 12th-highest explosive run rate. Week 15 Positional Value: THE RB1

James Conner: Since his Week 10 return, Conner has only once finished higher than RB27 in weekly scoring, as he has averaged 16.8 touches and 68.3 total yards. The problem hasn’t been Conner but a lack of volume and pass-game involvement. Since Week 10, among 30 qualifying backs, he ranks first in missed tackles forced per attempt and third in yards after contact per attempt. Sadly, Conner is slated for another flex/RB3 type of performance this week against a stout San Francisco run defense. Since Week 10, the 49ers have the fourth-lowest missed tackles per attempt, the second-highest stuff rate, and have given up the second-fewest rushing yards per game. Week 15 Positional Value: RB3

Wide Receivers

Brandon Aiyuk: Aiyuk is the WR14 in fantasy, ranking ninth in receiving yards, 18th in yards after the catch, and 21st in deep targets. Since Week 9, Arizona has deployed two-high at the second-highest rate (70.1%). In the last eight games with Aiyuk, Samuel, and Kittle all playing at least 73% of the snaps, against two-high, Aiyuk has seen a 20.7% target share, a 38.7% air-yard share, 3.68 YPRR, and a 27.5% first-read share. Since Week 9, Arizona has allowed the third-most PPR points per target and the second-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Week 15 Positional Value: WR1

Deebo Samuel: Samuel has been on fire lately, with at least 22 PPR points in each of his last three games. He is the WR10 in fantasy points per game, ranking fourth in yards after the catch and total touchdowns. In the last eight games with Aiyuk, Samuel, and Kittle all playing at least 73% of the snaps, against two-high, Samuel has been a volume monster with a 30.5% target share, 3.97 YPRR, and a ridiculous 37.3% first-read share. Deebo will set another secondary on fire in Week 15. Since Week 9, Arizona has allowed the third-most PPR points per target and the second-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Week 15 Positional Value: WR1

Marquise Brown: Brown opened the week with a DNP (heel). The Cardinals have managed his load through this issue. He didn’t practice before Week 13 and still played. I expect him to suit up this week. Brown is the WR44 in fantasy points per game and has hit a rut. Since Week 9, he has only once finished higher than WR52 in weekly scoring. Since Week 12, the 49ers have utilized two-high at the sixth-highest rate (58.1%). This season against two-high, Brown has an 18.7% target share, a 29.8% air-yard share, 0.86 YPRR, and a 22% first-read share. If you have comparable options to get into your lineup this week over Brown, do so. Since Week 9, the 49ers have allowed the 11th-lowest PPR points per target per perimeter wide receivers and only two receiving touchdowns. Week 15 Positional Value: WR4 / Sit

Michael Wilson: Wilson is an interesting flex option. Since Week 12, the 49ers have utilized two-high at the sixth-highest rate (58.1%). This season against two-high, Wilson has had a 17.6% target share, a 31.1% air-yard share, and 2.30 YPRR. Wilson is probably not someone you will be considering in your usual 12-team leagues, but in 14-teamers or dynasty formats, he’s in play for a flex spot. Week 15 Positional Value: Deep league flex play

Tight Ends

George Kittle: Kittle is the TE5 in fantasy points per game, ranking 10th in targets, ninth in receptions, third in receiving yards and yards after the catch, and first in total touchdowns among tight ends. In the last eight games with Aiyuk, Samuel, and Kittle all playing at least 73% of the snaps, against two-high, Kittle has been an afterthought with a 13.4% target share, 0.91 YPRR, and a 13.7% first-read share. Kittle could easily spike a touchdown and still be a TE1 this week. Week 15 Positional Value: TE1

Trey McBride: Since Week 8, McBride has been the TE3 in fantasy points per game, ranking first in target share (28.3%), fourth in air-yard share (28.3%), third in YPRR (2.42), and first in first-read share (33.3%). McBride is one of the emerging elite tight ends in fantasy who will be a middle-round pick next year (or should be). Since Week 12, the 49ers have utilized two-high at the sixth-highest rate (58.1%). Since Week 8, among 51 qualifying tight ends, McBride ranks fifth in fantasy points per route run against two-high. San Francisco has been tough on tight ends all season, allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game and receiving yards per game. Week 15 Positional Value: TE1

Dallas Cowboys vs. Buffalo Bills

BUF -2, O/U 50
Cowboys vs. Bills Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

Since Week 8, Dallas has been seventh in neutral pace and sixth in neutral passing rate.
With Joe Brady calling the shots, Buffalo has picked the pace back up, but they are now a run-balanced offense. Since Week 11, they have ranked third in neutral pace and 18th in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Dak Prescott: Since Week 8, Prescott has arguably been playing the best football of his career. He’s on an MVP level. Among 33 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks second in fantasy points per dropback, third in CPOE, second in passer rating, and first in passing touchdowns. This week, he’ll add the Bills’ pass defense to his growing list of victims as the MVP tour continues. Since Week 9, Buffalo has allowed the 12th-highest passer rating, the seventh-most passing touchdowns, and the 10th-highest adjusted completion rate. Week 15 Positional Value: QB1

Josh Allen: Allen remains the QB1 in fantasy. With Joe Brady at the helm, Allen has finished as the QB1, QB5, and QB9 in weekly fantasy scoring. Allen hasn’t been playing his best football lately, though. Since Week 11, among 35 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 31st in CPOE, 18th in yards per attempt, and 22nd in passer rating. Allen will need to bring his A-game this week against a smothering Dallas pass defense. Since Week 9, Dallas has kept signal callers in check with the 11th-lowest CPOE and the eighth-fewest passing yards per game. Dallas, in this timeframe, has also ranked first in time to pressure and fourth in pressure rate. Allen will need his cape and all of his superpowers this week. Week 15 Positional Value: QB1

Running Backs

Tony Pollard

since Week 11: 20.3 touches & 90.6 total yds / game

the RB10 in fantasy points per game

I wish we had this version of Pollard all szn BUT he's here now in clutch time with the fantasy playoffs.

— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) December 14, 2023

Tony Pollard: Pollard has hit his stride down the stretch. Since Week 11, he has averaged 20.3 touches and 90.6 total yards as the RB10 in fantasy points per game. I wish we had this version of Pollard all season. Yes, I was wrong about Pollard being THE RB1 this season, but this is the type of production that I envisioned all offseason. Since Week 11, among 44 qualifying backs, Pollard ranks 12th in explosive run rate and 13th in yards after contact per attempt. Pollard will have a tough day on the ground against Buffalo, but he can make up for it in the passing game. Since Week 9, Buffalo has had the 11th-highest stuff rate, the sixth-lowest missed tackles per attempt, and the second-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Buffalo has allowed the fourth-most receiving yards per game and the third-highest yards per reception to backs this season. Since Week 11, Pollard ranks second for Dallas in target share (15.0%). Week 15 Positional Value: RB1

With Joe Brady as OC:

James Cook: RB5 in fppg

19 touches & 114.3 total yards per game

The offseason thesis was RIGHT. We just needed a real sharp calling plays all season to unlock Cook.

Buffalo should keep Brady as OC after this szn.

— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) December 14, 2023

James Cook: With Joe Brady running the show, Cook has played 43-46% of the snaps weekly, averaging 19 touches and 114.3 total yards per game as the RB5 in fantasy. It’s been beautiful to see the Bills FINALLY lean on one of their best players and stop feeding carries to Latavius Murray. Cook ranks 25th in explosive run rate and 39th in yards after contact per attempt. Cook will have his work cut out for him this week, though. Dallas has also been strong against the run. Since Week 9, Dallas has allowed the second-lowest explosive run rate and missed tackles per attempt while also surrendering the sixth-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Week 15 Positional Value: RB2

Wide Receivers

CeeDee Lamb: Since Week 8, Lamb has had gawd mode switched on. Since then, he has been third in fantasy points per route run, second in target share (31.6%), 12th in air-yard share (40.7%), seventh in YPRR (2.92), and sixth in first-read share (36.7%). Lamb will run about 53% of his routes against Taron Johnson (79.2% catch rate and 114.2 passer rating). Johnson doesn’t have a chance to shut down Lamb. Week 15 Positional Value: WR1

Brandin Cooks: Since Week 8, Cooks has had a 12.4% target share, an 18.7% air-yard share, 1.86 YPRR, and a 12.2% first-read share as the WR24 in fantasy points per game. Since Week 9, Buffalo has the fourth-highest rate of two-high (59%). Since Week 8, against two high, Cooks has disappeared with only a 7.4% target share and 0.75 YPRR. If you’re playing Cooks this week, you’re praying that he breaks a long play or scores a touchdown to save his day. Week 15 Positional Value: WR4

Stefon Diggs: Diggs is the WR7 in fantasy, ranking 21st in deep targets and 13th in red zone targets, but since Week 7, he has not been crushing. Over his last seven games, he hasn’t recorded a 100-yard receiving day. In three of his last four games, he has finished as the WR52 or lower. This isn’t the type of production that you are expecting from a WR1 or a weekly must-start player. I’m not saying that Diggs needs to be benched, but we have to discuss his slide in recent weeks. Since Week 7, he has had a 24.8% target share, a 31.3% air-yard share, 1.39 YPRR, and a 32.7% first-read share. Josh Allen has continued to feed him volume, but he’s just not doing a ton with it. If you’re starting Diggs this week, you might want to add some upside elsewhere in your lineup (your flex spots). Week 15 Positional Value: WR1/2

Gabriel Davis: Davis is the WR45 in fantasy points per game, ranking 14th in deep targets and 23rd in red zone looks. I was immensely high on Davis last week, and he face-planted with only two targets and goose eggs across the board. Davis was running wide open on a few deep routes, but Allen never looked his way. Either way, it doesn’t matter because he airballed the box score. This isn’t the spot to go chasing a spike week game from Davis. Since Week 9, Dallas has allowed the eighth-lowest passer rating and the second-fewest deep passing yards per game. Since Week 9, Dallas has utilized man coverage at the second-highest rate (41%). Since Week 7, against man, Davis has a 15.6% target share and 0.76 YPRR. Sit Davis this week if you can. Week 15 Positional Value: WR4 / Sit

Tight Ends

Jake Ferguson: Ferguson is the TE9 in fantasy points per game, ranking 10th in receptions, eighth in receiving yards, 11th in deep targets, and first in red zone targets among tight ends. Since Week 9, Buffalo has the fourth-highest rate of two-high (59%). Since Week 8, against two high, Ferguson has had strong usage with a 20.6% target share, 2.37 YPRR, and a 25.8% first-read share. Since losing Matt Milano, Buffalo has allowed the 13th-most fantasy points per game and the 14th-most receiving yards per game to tight ends. Week 15 Positional Value: TE1

Dalton Kincaid: Last week, with Dawson Knox returning to the lineup, Kincaid remained “the guy.” Knox only chipped in with a 24.5% route run rate. Kincaid rocked a 69.4% route run rate a 16.7% target share, and saw a 13% first-read share. Kincaid did get dinged up last week and opened Week 15 with a limited session (thumb/shoulder). Since Week 9, Dallas has had the second-highest rate of man coverage (41%). Since Week 7, against man, Kincaid has had a 17.8% target share, 1.10 YPRR, and an 18.3% first-read share. Dallas hasn’t been kind to tight ends, limiting them to the 12th-fewest fantasy points per game and the 11th-fewest receiving yards per game. Kincaid remains a TE1 option for many teams, but the ceiling is quite low this week. Week 15 Positional Value: low-end TE1

Baltimore Ravens vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

BAL -3, O/U 42
Ravens vs. Jaguars Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

Baltimore has been blazing a path since Week 9, ranking third in neutral pace and ninth in neutral rushing rate.
Jacksonville has slowed things down while remaining pass-centric. Over their last five games, they have the eighth-slowest neutral pace and the sixth-highest neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Lamar Jackson: I talked about Jackson possibly going nuclear last week. It happened as he posted 32.6 fantasy points as the QB1 for the week. Overall, Jackson is the QB4 in fantasy. He has been stellar all year as a passer, ranking sixth in yards per attempt, eighth in passer rating, and fifth in CPOE. Jackson could stack back-to-back nuclear weeks. Jacksonville has been the southern version of the Commanders. Neither team has a clue how to stop a passing attack. Since Week 9, the Jaguars have allowed the highest passer rating and yards per attempt, the third-most passing touchdowns, and the fourth-highest CPOE. Week 15 Positional Value: QB1

Trevor Lawrence: Lawrence has been a roller coaster ride this season. Some weeks leave you feeling elated, while others induce dizziness and vomiting. Lawrence is the QB14 in fantasy. Among 42 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 17th in passer rating, 11th in yards per attempt, 10th in CPOE, and 12th in highly accurate throw rate. Baltimore has been a terrible matchup for quarterbacks all season, allowing the third-fewest yards per attempt and CPOE and the seventh-fewest passing yards per game. Week 15 Positional Value: QB2

Running Backs

Keaton Mitchell: Mitchell had a consistent upward trajectory in his snaps for four weeks until Week 14. Last week, Mitchell had 10 touches, which he turned into 62 total yards, but his snaps dropped from 46% the previous week to 33%. Mitchell’s per-touch rushing metrics are still the stuff of legend, with a 15.8% explosive run rate and 6.0 yards after contact per attempt. Mitchell’s workload is tough to decipher now, but he could post monster numbers this week, even on limited touches. Since Week 9, Jacksonville has allowed the highest explosive run rate, the fifth-highest rushing touchdown rate, and the third-most missed tackles per attempt. Week 15 Positional Value: RB3

Gus Edwards: Edwards is the RB31 in fantasy, ranking 27th in carries and 24th in red zone touches among running backs. He is third in total touchdowns, which has helped boost his value all season. Edwards has seen his workload decline in three of the last four weeks. In Week 10, he played 52% of the snaps, but in Week 14, that figure stood at 28%. Over his last four games, he has averaged 10.3 touches and 37.6 total yards. If Edwards doesn’t score this week, you’ll likely be mad that you played him. Edwards ranks 33rd in missed tackles forced per attempt and 32nd in yards after contact per attempt. The best-case scenario for Edwards is that the team gets an early and hefty lead, and Edwards is the clock-grinding option. Since Week 9, Jacksonville has allowed the highest explosive run rate, the fifth-highest rushing touchdown rate, and the third-most missed tackles per attempt. Week 15 Positional Value: RB3/4

Travis Etienne: Etienne is the RB6 in fantasy, ranking sixth in opportunity share, third in weighted opportunities, and 12th in red zone touches. Since Week 10, Etienne has settled into a 61-78% snap role, averaging 17 touches and 68 total yards. Etienne ranks 25th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 36th in yards after contact per attempt. Look for the Jaguars to lean on the ground game this week and stay away from Baltimore’s strength (its secondary). Since Week 9, Baltimore has ranked ninth in missed tackles forced per attempt and 12th in yards after contact per attempt. Week 15 Positional Value: RB1/2

Wide Receivers

Odell Beckham Jr.: Beckham Jr. was clutch for fantasy managers last week with a 23.2% target share, 97 receiving yards, and a score as the WR9 for Week 14. He played 54% of the Ravens’ offensive snaps, his highest snap count since Week 8. Beckham Jr. could keep the hot streak alive in Week 15. Since Week 9, Jacksonville has allowed the fifth-most PPR points per target and receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Week 15 Positional Value: WR3/4

Zay Flowers: In the three games without Mark Andrews this season, Flowers has seen a 27.8% target share, a 23.8% air-yard share, and a 40.7% first-read share with 1.44 YPRR. In those three games, Flowers finishes as the WR16, WR6, and WR8 in weekly scoring. This is another fantastic matchup for Flowers to crush this week. Overall Flowers ranks 19th in deep targets and 23rd in red zone looks. Since Week 9, Jacksonville has allowed the fifth-most PPR points per target and receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Week 15 Positional Value: WR2

Calvin Ridley: As the WR28 in fantasy, Ridley has been feast or famine all season. He has four weeks as a top-12 fantasy wide receiver while also logging five games outside the top 50 wide receivers in weekly scoring. Ridley ranks ninth in deep targets and eighth in red zone targets this season. Unfortunately, this looks like another famine week for Ridley. Since Week 9, Baltimore has held boundary wide receivers to the fifth-fewest PPR points per target and the 11th-lowest receiving yards per game. Week 15 Positional Value: WR3

Zay Jones: Jones has been a volume monster without Christian Kirk in the lineup. Over the last two games, Jones has soaked up a 24.7% target share, a 40.5% air-yard share, and a 28.2% first-read share with 1.23 YPRR and one end-zone target. Jones has nine deep targets and red zone targets in only seven games played this season. The recipe for success is there for Jones, with plenty of targets and high-leverage looks, but the matchup is beyond brutal, so it’s fair to be skeptical of how effective Jones will be this week. Since Week 9, Baltimore has held boundary wide receivers to the fifth-fewest PPR points per target and the 11th-lowest receiving yards per game. Week 15 Positional Value: WR4/5

Tight Ends

Isaiah Likely: In his last two starts as the Ravens’ starting tight end, Likely has TE18 and TE3 fantasy finishes. In those two games, Likely only saw one red zone target. In this short stint, Likely has a 16% target share, 1.76 YPRR, and a 15.9% first-read share. Jacksonville has been giving to tight ends this season, allowing the eighth-most fantasy points per game and the second-highest yards per reception. Week 15 Positional Value: Borderline TE1

Evan Engram: After last week’s surprising boom game, Engram is the TE6 in fantasy, ranking second in receptions and fifth in receiving yards and yards after the catch. He is also fourth in deep targets and 19th in red zone targets (four in his last four games). Engram has commanded a 21.5% target share and a 24.2% first-read share with 1.63 YPRR. We’ll see if he can defy the odds again in another tough matchup this week. Baltimore has given up the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game and the third-lowest yards per reception to tight ends. Week 15 Positional Value: TE1

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Seattle Seahawks

PHI -3, O/U 47.5
Eagles vs. Seahawks Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

Since Week 11, the Eagles have turned back to the passing game, ranking 10th in neutral pace and 14th in neutral passing rate.
This game will be paced up and feature healthy passing rates. Since Week 11, Seattle has ranked 12th in neutral pace and fifth in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Jalen Hurts: Hurts is the QB2 in fantasy football, but it hasn’t been sailing smoothly lately. He has remained a top-shelf fantasy contributor because of his rushing equity since Week 9, with six rushing touchdowns over his last five games. Since Week 9, among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, he has ranked 14th in yards per attempt, 15th in passer rating, and 17th in CPOE. Hurts can bounce back in any week as a passer, and this is a perfect week to do so. Seattle has struggled recently as a pass defense. Since Week 9, they have allowed the seventh-highest yards per attempt and passing yards per game with the fourth-most passing touchdowns. Week 15 Positional Value: QB1

Geno Smith: It looks like Smith will play this week. Smith has slowly been flashing his Chef Geno form with QB5 and QB1 weekly finishes in two of his last four games. Since Week 8, he has ranked 14th in yards per attempt, 24th in highly accurate throw rate, tenth in hero throw rate, and 25th in CPOE. He faces a Philly pass defense that has been falling all over itself. Since Week 9, they have given up the ninth-highest yards per attempt, the fifth-highest passer rating, and the most passing touchdowns. Smith should crush if he is close to full health. Let the Chef cook. Week 15 Positional Value: Borderline QB1

Running Backs

D’Andre Swift: This is also a good spot to get Swift going. The last two weeks have been especially tough for him playing 42-51% of the snaps while averaging 9.5 touches and 29.5 total yards. Among 59 qualifying backs, Swift ranks 17th in explosive run rate and 41st in missed tackles forced per attempt. Swift is the RB24 in fantasy points per game ranking tenth in carries, 12th in weighted opportunities, and 19th in red zone touches. Since Week 9, Seattle has allowed the second-highest explosive run rate and rushing yards per game while giving up the highest missed tackles per attempt. Week 15 Positional Value: RB1/2

Kenneth Walker: Last week, Walker returned to the lineup with a 56% snap rate, 12 touches, and 54 total yards. Walker got banged up last week, so we’ll have to monitor his practice reports this week. Walker ranks 22nd in explosive run rate and 28th in yards after contact per attempt. If he’s good to go, he should be the early down hammer for Seattle. Since Week 9, Philly has allowed the sixth-highest explosive run rate and the seventh-highest rushing yards per game and yards before contact per attempt. Week 15 Positional Value: RB2

Zach Charbonnet: In Week 14, Charbonnet returned to his backup role with a 42% snap share, 10 touches, and 48 total yards. Charbonnet ranks 14th in explosive run rate and 12th in yards after contact per attempt. In a plus-rushing matchup, he’s a decent flex/RB3 option this week. Since Week 9, Philly has allowed the sixth-highest explosive run rate and the seventh-highest rushing yards per game and yards before contact per attempt. Week 15 Positional Value: RB3

Wide Receivers

A.J. Brown: Brown is the WR4 in fantasy, ranking sixth in targets, fifth in receptions, second in receiving yards, and tenth in yards after the catch. Brown ranks fifth in deep targets and eighth in red zone targets. He’s a must-start weekly. Since Week 9, Seattle has allowed the ninth-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Week 15 Positional Value: WR1

DeVonta Smith: Smith enjoyed a strong run with Goedert on the shelf, raising his season-long stock to WR18 in fantasy points per game. Smith is 18th in deep targets, 15th in receptions and receiving yards, and the WR23 in expected fantasy points per game. Seattle has been ravaged by perimeter wide receivers lately. Fire Smith up as a WR2. Since Week 9, Seattle has allowed the ninth-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Week 15 Positional Value: WR2

D.K. Metcalf: Since Week 8, Metcalf has had a 23.1% target share, a 46.9% air-yard share, 2.31 YPRR, and a 30.8% first-read share. He is the WR16 in fantasy points per game, ranking seventh in deep targets and fourth in red zone targets. Metcalf should have another strong outing against a secondary that, since Week 9, has allowed the fourth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Week 15 Positional Value: WR1/2

Tyler Lockett: Lockett is the WR32 in fantasy points per game, ranking 23rd in red zone targets. Since Week 8, he has had a 20.3% target share, a 28.8% air-yard share, 1.88 YPRR, and a 23.1% first read share. Lockett is a weekly WR2/3 at this point. Since Week 9, Philly has allowed the fourth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Week 15 Positional Value: WR2/3

Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Since Week 8, Smith-Njigba has had a 17.1% target share (7.0 aDOT), 1.62 YPRR, and a 21.3% first-read share. He’s clearly been the third option in the passing attack, but in this span, he’s seen a 32.6% designed target rate. He could easily hop Lockett as the second option in the passing game in any week. Since Week 9, the Eagles have given up the seventh-most PPR points per target to opposing slot receivers. Week 15 Positional Value: WR3

Tight Ends

Dallas Goedert: Last week, Godert returned to his full-time role. He had an 86.2% route run rate, a 14.3% target share, 1.20 YPRR, and a 17.4% first-read share. Each of those are TE1-worthy metrics. Goedert has eight red zone targets in his last eight games played. Seattle has allowed the 14th-most fantasy points per game and the 10th-most receiving yards per game to tight ends. Week 15 Positional Value: TE1

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Las Vegas Raiders

LV -3, O/U 34
Chargers vs. Raiders Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

Since Week 9, the Raiders have had the second-slowest neutral pace while ranking 16th in neutral passing rate.
Last week, in the second half, the Chargers continued to sprint down the field with a pass-happy approach, even with Easton Stick under center. They operated at 19.9 seconds per snap while passing on 69.7% of their plays.

Quarterbacks

Easton Stick: Stick could be the Bolts’ starter for the remainder of the season as Justin Herbert is sidelined with a fractured finger. Stick was simply dreadful last week. Among 27 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked 24th in adjusted completion rate and catchable target rate and 25th in highly accurate throw rate. Stick’s numbers across four preseasons aren’t any better as a passer, with 5.4 yards per attempt (217 attempts) and a 4:8 passing touchdown to interception ratio. Stick didn’t take off running last week, but that is definitely a part of his game that could be further unlocked this week. With 13 preseason carries, he has rushed for 7.1 yards per carry. During his final three collegiate seasons, he had at least 663 rushing yards in each season while amassing 36 rushing touchdowns. Since Week 8, the Raiders have allowed the 13th-highest yards per attempt, the 17th-highest passer rating, and the fourth-highest CPOE. Stick is a QB2 that could offer a sneaky upside this week. Week 15 Positional Value: QB2

Aidan O’Connell: O’Connell is who he is at this juncture. A low-ceiling QB2 in fantasy. O’Connell faced this defense in Week 4 and produced 6.1 yards per attempt, 238 scoreless passing yards, and a QB23 weekly finish. O’Connell is a fantasy option that is best left on the bench, even in Superflex formats. He has failed to crack double-digit fantasy points in three of his last five starters and hasn’t finished higher than QB17 in any week. Week 15 Positional Value: Sit

Running Backs

Austin Ekeler: Brandon Staley stated last week that the Chargers would begin to work in other running backs, and then Ekeler played 72% of the snaps with 15 touches and 100 total yards against the Broncos. Ummm ok. While Ekeler’s stat line looked better last week, he’s still dealing with the same issue. He has lost the special sauce and his tackle-breaking ability. Maybe this is because of injuries he has sustained this season, or maybe it’s because of the mileage he has accrued in the NFL. Last week, he didn’t manage any explosive runs. He didn’t force any missed tackles and finished with 2.30 yards after contact per attempt. Denver’s struggling run defense helped bump up his efficiency falsely. He is still only getting what is blocked in front of him. Unfortunately for Ekeler, the Raiders’ run defense has been playing quite well. Since Week 9, they have allowed the third-lowest rushing touchdown rate, the lowest missed tackles per attempt, and the sixth-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Ekeler is still a strong bet for 15-18 touches, and all the red zone work. Week 15 Positional Value: RB2

#Raiders RB Josh Jacobs, listed as questionable with a quad, is going to be out tonight vs the #Chargers, per me and @MikeGarafolo. Jacobs didn’t practice this week.

Zamir White is slated to be the starter.

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) December 14, 2023

Josh Jacobs: Jacobs has been ruled out.

Zamir White: With Josh Jacobs unable to suit up, White is in the RB2/3 conversation this week based on volume alone. I wasn’t high on White as a prospect coming out, and he’s done nothing to change my mind. This season, he has only 20 carries, and he’s done very little with them. He hasn’t managed an explosive run and has only 2.00 yards after contact per attempt. Looking at a larger preseason sample (51 carries), his results don’t improve, as he has 2.39 yards after contact per attempt and zero breakaway runs. He would be the early down thumper, though, if Jacobs missed, which is valuable this week considering the matchup, and he would likely see at least 15 touches. Since Week 9, the Bolts have allowed the eighth-most rushing yards per game, the second-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the 11th-highest explosive run rate. Week 15 Positional Value: RB2/3

Wide Receivers

Keenan Allen: Allen has been ruled out.

Quentin Johnston: Since Week 8, in the six games that Johnston has played at least 70% of the snaps, he has drawn a 13.3% target share, with a 22.1% air-yard share and 1.27 YPRR. He has averaged only 43.7 receiving yards per game. On a positive note, in this late-season sample, he leads the team with three end-zone targets. Johnston is a desperation flex play only who faces a Raiders secondary that, since Week 9, has allowed the 13th-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. With Keenan Allen ruled out, the Bolts will have to lean on Johnston. Josh Palmer will be back, but he’s not expected to be an every down player. Week 15 Positional Value: WR4

Davante Adams: Since Week 9 with O’Connell chucking it, Adams has had a 29.6% target share, a 50.1% air-yard share, 2.10 YPRR, and a 36.2% first-read share as the WR23 in fantasy. Adams ranks eighth in deep target and second in red zone targets among wide receivers. In Week 4, with O’Connell starting, Adams secured eight of his 13 targets with 75 receiving yards as the WR19 for the week. Since Week 9, the Bolts have been downgraded from a smash matchup for perimeter wide receivers to a neutral one, allowing the 17th-most PPR points per target and receiving yards per game. Week 15 Positional Value: WR2

Jakobi Meyers: With O’Connell starting the last five games, Meyers has a 15.7% target share, 1.63 YPRR, and a 19.8% first-read share. His Week 12 meeting with Kansas City was his only game above 50 receiving yards. Since Week 7, he has only one red zone target. Meyers can’t be counted on in the opening week of the fantasy playoffs. There are better wide receiver options to consider if you’re streaming for a flex spot. Week 15 Positional Value: Sit

Tight Ends

Gerald Everett: Since Week 12, Everett has had a 59% route run rate, a 13.8% target share, 1.56 YPRR, and an 11.5% first read share as the Chargers’ main tight end. It only took 11 weeks of the NFL season for the Chargers to commit to featuring one of their best players, but this has been a consistent problem in this offense all season, so I’m not surprised. Everett has four red zone targets over his last three games. The Raiders have allowed the 12th-most receiving yards per game and the second-highest catch rate to tight ends this season. Week 15 Positional Value: Borderline TE1

Michael Mayer: Mayer is in the TE2/matchup-based streaming conversation this week. Since Week 9, he has had a 55% route run rate, a 10.1% target share, and a 12.9% first-read share. With the Raiders utilizing a run-first offense with O’Connell, Mayer has surpassed 40 receiving yards only once over the last five games. He hasn’t seen a red zone target since Week 10. The Chargers have allowed the 11th-most fantasy points per game and the sixth-most receiving yards per game to tight ends. Week 15 Positional Value: TE2

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*All data utilized in this article is courtesy of Fantasy Points Data, PFF, ESPN analytics, The Edge from the 33rd Team, FTN, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*

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