Derek Brown | Thu, Dec 14th 2023, 9:14am EST

The Primer: Week 15 Edition (2023 Fantasy Football)

New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins

MIA -9, O/U 37
Jets vs. Dolphins Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

Since Week 9, the Jets have ranked 23rd in neutral pace with the third-highest neutral passing rate.
Miami has continued the slow-and-throw method since Week 9 with the seventh-slowest neutral pace while ranking 14 in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Zach Wilson: I know Wilson just torched the Texans’ secondary, but there’s no way I’m trusting my fantasy team to him in the playoffs, especially not against Miami. We have an entire season’s track record of Wilson being unstartable. I won’t get lost in the sauce of one game. Since Week 8, Miami has allowed the seventh-fewest yards per attempt and passing yards per game while also sporting the fourth-lowest passer rating. Week 15 Positional Value: QB2

Tua Tagovailoa: The last time Tagovailoa faced this secondary, he finished with 243 passing yards, 8.1 yards per attempt, and a 1:2 passing touchdown to interception ratio as the QB26 for the week. If Tagovailoa is missing Hill this week, we can probably kiss his fantasy ceiling and floor goodbye. Tagovailoa has dropped from the QB1 ranks with QB2 outings in three of his last five games (QB23, QB26, QB16). Tagovailoa still ranks third in yards per attempt and fourth in passer rating and CPOE. The Jets’ pass defense is a buzzsaw. Since Week 8, they have allowed the lowest yards per attempt and CPOE and the second-lowest passer rating. Week 15 Positional Value: Borderline QB1

Running Backs

Breece Hall: Hall is the RB15 despite only averaging 17.1 touches and 76.8 total yards since Week 6. His fantasy value and his season have been made by the 5.5 receptions and 47 yards he has averaged since Week 6. Among 59 qualifying backs, Hall ranks 19th in explosive run rate and fifth in yards after contact per attempt. Hall will need every bit of his receiving role this week against a defense that, since Week 9, has allowed the fifth-lowest explosive run rate, the seventh-fewest missed tackles per attempt, and the third-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Week 15 Positional Value: RB2

Raheem Mostert: Last week Mostert led the way playing 64% of the snaps with 22 touches and 100 total yards. I’ll freshen up his projection on Friday once we know more about Achane. Overall this season, Mostert has averaged 15.8 touches and 84.2 total yards. Among 59 qualifying backs, Mostert ranks seventh in explosive run rate and yards after contact per attempt. Since Week 9, New York has allowed the 11th-lowest explosive run rate and yards after contact per attempt and the 10th-lowest rushing touchdown rate. Week 15 Positional Value: RB2

De’Von Achane: Achane didn’t practice on Wednesday and Thursday before working in a limited session on Friday. He is active this week. I have serious concerns about Achane’s workload this week. Last week, he played 46% of the snaps with 12 touches and 71 total yards. Mostert handled all of the red zone work for Miami last week, so even with Achane playing, his touchdown expectations aren’t great. Week 15 Positional Value: RB3 / Shaky flex

Wide Receivers

Garrett Wilson: Wilson has been a volume play all season. He is the WR23, ranking third in targets and air-yard share while also ranking fifth in deep targets and 14th in red zone targets. Wilson has a 28.7% target share, a 48.6% air-yard share, 1.76 YPRR, and a 39.6% first-read share. Since Week 8, Miami has ranked 13th in receiving yards per game and 15th in PPR points per target allowed to boundary wide receivers. Week 15 Positional Value: WR2/3

Tyreek Hill: Hill has been ruled out.

Jaylen Waddle: The last time Waddle tangled with this secondary, he was the WR15 for the week, snagging all eight of his targets for 114 receiving yards. Waddle needs the volume and deep shots because he has only one red zone target over his last five games and only eight for the season. Waddle has a 22.2% target share, a 28.2% air-yard share, 2.68 YPRR, and a 25% first-read share. Since Week 8, the Jets have allowed the lowest PPR points per target to boundary receivers. Week 15 Positional Value: WR2

Tight Ends

*There are no fantasy viable tight ends in this game*

Kansas City Chiefs vs. New England Patriots

KC -8, O/U 37.5
Chiefs vs. Patriots Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

Since Week 10, Kansas City has ranked fourth in neutral pace and second in neutral passing rate.
In their last four games, the Patriots have had the fourth-slowest neutral pace and the third-highest neutral rushing rate.

Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes: Even a gawd can bleed. Mahomes has been a football-tossing magician for so long that it’s tough to see him unable to rise above everything and still pull off magic, but Mahomes has only one QB1 finish (QB8) over his last six games. Since Week 8, among 41 qualifying quarterbacks, Mahomes has ranked 31st in yards per attempt, 25th in passer rating, and 15th in CPOE. If Kansas City can get things on track, Mahomes magic can resume in Week 15. I’m not writing him off. New England might not be the “get right elixir,” but this pass defense hasn’t been imposing this year either. Since Week 7, New England has ranked 19th in passer rating and CPOE while allowing the 13th-highest passing yards per game. Week 15 Positional Value: QB1

NE QBs: No, I don’t trust the future Hall of Famer Bailey Zappe to hold the starting job in New England. After a stellar first half last week, he turned back into a pumpkin in the second half. I have zero confidence in any quarterback in a Patriots uniform to play effectively for four quarters and complete a game, especially against a defense that, since Week 9, has allowed the ninth-lowest yards per attempt, the 12th-fewest passing yards per game, and the 13th-lowest CPOE.

Running Backs

Isiah Pacheco: Pacheco has been ruled out.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire: Last week, Edwards-Helaire played 48% of the snaps with 13 touches and 68 total yards. He had one red zone opportunity, while Jerick McKinnon saw two. Edwards-Helaire has been a replacement-level back when called upon this year. Among 59 qualifying backs, he ranks 46th in explosive run rate and 54th in yards after contact per attempt. He has a brutal matchup this week with New England. While the Patriots’ pass defense has been suspect all season, their run defense has been legit. Since Week 9, they have allowed the second-fewest rushing yards per game, the eighth-lowest missed tackles per attempt, and the seventh-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Edwards-Helaire is a low-end flex. Week 15 Positional Value: RB3/4

Jerick McKinnon: Last week, McKinnon played 45% of the snaps with seven touches and 37 total yards (one touchdown). He saw two red zone looks (Edwards-Helaire, one). McKinnon’s main appeal is his pass game usage and his red zone role. New England ranks 15th in receiving yards per game and 18th in yards per reception allowed to backs. I expect McKinnon to receive a workload similar to last week, with 7-10 touches and some red zone work sprinkled in. If he scores, he’ll pay off as a flex play, but if not, then you’ll be sad you played him. Week 15 Positional Value: Touchdown or bust flex play

Ezekiel Elliott: Elliott is New England’s bell cow as long as Stevenson is out. Last week, he played 91% of the snaps, turning a whopping 29 touches into 140 total yards. To Elliott’s credit, this was arguably his best tackle-breaking performance of the 2023 season, as he had an 18% missed tackles per attempt rate and 2.73 yards after contact per attempt. He was the RB1 overall last week with 27.0 PPR points. Elliott should post another banner performance this week against a Chief’s run defense that has allowed the 12th-highest explosive run rate and the ninth-highest yards after contact per attempt this season with the second-lowest stuff rate. Week 15 Positional Value: RB1/2

Rhamondre Stevenson: Stevenson opened the week with a DNP (ankle). I don’t expect him to suit up this week.

Wide Receivers

Rashee Rice: There’s no putting this magic genie back in the bottle. Rice has been on a tear and the Chiefs need to continue to feed him. Since Week 12, Rice has had a 26.4% target share, a 15.9% air-yard share, 2.79 YPRR, and a 33.8% first-read share. Over his last three games, he has finished as the WR3, WR22, and WR12 in weekly fantasy scoring. Fire up Rice as a WR2 this week. Since Week 8, the Patriots have allowed the ninth-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers (since Week 12 Rice 58% on the boundary). Week 15 Positional Value: WR2

Demario Douglas: Douglas is back. He has been cleared of the concussion protocol. Douglas has finished as a WR3 or better in four of his last five games played (WR29, WR27, WR23, WR35). Since assuming a starting role in Week 7, he has had a 22.4% target share, 1.96 yards per route run, and a 27.8% first-read share as the unquestioned WR1 in the Patriots’ offense. I expect him to pick right back up where he left off as the leader of this passing attack. Since Week 8, Kansas City has allowed the ninth-most PPR points per target to slot receivers. Week 15 Positional Value: WR3/4

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce: OK, here’s your #analysis start of the week. His name is still Travis Kelce. He remains the TE1 in fantasy points per game, ranking second in targets, third in receptions, first in receiving yards, and second in red zone targets. I don’t care who the opponent is weekly. Play Kelce. Week 15 Positional Value: TE1

New York Giants vs. New Orleans Saints

NO -5.5, O/U 39
Giants vs. Saints Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

With Tommy DeVito under center, the team has had the eighth-slowest neutral pace while ranking 21st in neutral passing rate.
The Saints have changed their offensive philosophy. They had been a fast-moving, pass-happy team, but since Week 10, they have been the 11th-slowest while ranking 13th in neutral rushing rate.

Quarterbacks

Tommy DeVito: The Italian Stallion has been a QB2 outside of the week in which he demolished Washington. He’s flashed some skills as a rusher, with at least 41 rushing yards in two of his four starts. Among 42 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 19th in highly accurate throw rate, 16th in CPOE, and 25th in yards per attempt. The Saints defense has taken a step back, but they have still been passable against quarterbacks, allowing the eighth-fewest passing touchdowns, the fifth-fewest passing yards per game, the fifth-lowest CPOE, and the ninth-lowest passing yards per game. Week 15 Positional Value: QB2 / Sit

Derek Carr: Carr is the QB25 in fantasy points per game. He has managed only one QB1 outing (QB12) over his last five games. He’s been battered and bruised all year. He is 23rd in yards per attempt, 20th in passer rating, and 32nd in fantasy points per dropback. It’s difficult to feel good about starting Carr in any matchup, as he has been grossly ineffective all season and now is clearly not 100%. Even in SuperFlex leagues, I’m willing to trot out positional players over him. Week 15 Positional Value: QB2 / Sit

Running Backs

Saquon Barkley: Barkley is the RB7 in fantasy points per game. Since his return, he has averaged 22.3 touches and 101.4 total yards. He ranks third in snap share, second in opportunity share, and tenth in weighted opportunities. Barkley ranks eighth in explosive run rate and 15th in yards after contact per attempt. The Giants should lean on their star back against a soft Saints run defense. Since Week 9, New Orleans has allowed the most rushing yards per game in the NFL, the 10th-highest explosive run rate, and the eighth-highest yards after contact per attempt. Week 15 Positional Value: RB1

Alvin Kamara: Kamara is the RB3 in fantasy points per game. He ranks seventh in opportunity share, sixth in weighted opportunities, and tenth in red zone touches. Since Week 10, Kamara has averaged 17.5 touches and 87 total yards. Among 59 qualifying backs, he ranks 47th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 56th in yards after contact per attempt. Kamara has retained his pass game usage, ranking first in targets and target share and ninth in routes run. Kamara should be able to stack a decent outing against a run defense that Since Week 9, has allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game, third-highest explosive run rate, and the fourth-highest yards after contact per attempt. Week 15 Positional Value: RB1/2

Wide Receivers

Chris Olave: Olave has been ruled out.

Rashid Shaheed: Shaheed (thigh) was limited in practice on Wednesday and Thursday. He practiced in full on Friday and has been listed without an injury designation. Since Week 8, the Giants have had the sixth-highest rate of single-high (62.4%). Against single-high this season, Shaheed has had a 13.2% target share, 2.12 YPRR, and a 13.7% first-read share. In the last full game he played without Michael Thomas, he saw a 20.9% target share, an 18.7% air-yard share, and a 24.2% first-read share while running 55.6% of his routes from the slot. With Olave out, Shaheed will be the team’s WR1. He has double-digit target upside this week. The Giants have allowed the 12th-most receiving yards to opposing slot receivers this season. Week 15 Positional Value: WR3 with WR2 upside

Wan’Dale Robinson: In Week 14, Robinson had an 81.5% route run rate, a whopping 33.3% target share, a 54.5% air-yard share, and a 45.5% first-read share. Robinson has three top-24 finishes this season (WR23, WR17, WR13). He could walk away from Week 15 with another productive day against a secondary that has allowed the 10th-most receiving yards to slot receivers this season. Week 15 Positional Value: WR4/5 with WR3 upside

Jalin Hyatt: Last week, Hyatt was finally a full-time player with an 85.2% route run rate and a 14.3% target share. He had an 18.2% first-read share, and we saw his aDOT come down to 4.3. For most of the season, Hyatt has been the field-stretching weapon with a 22.2 aDOT overall. Hyatt could get behind the defense this week for a long score. Since Week 9, the Saints have faced the fourth-fewest deep attempts, but they have allowed the sixth-highest deep passer rating. Tommy Cutlets has only gone deep on 8.7% of his attempts, which isn’t great, but when he has chucked it deep, he has been very accurate, ranking sixth in deep-adjusted completion rate and 12th in deep passer rating. Week 15 Positional Value: WR5 with boom potential

Tight Ends

Darren Waller: Waller will return this week. The big question is, will he play full-time snaps? I lean that he will. Practice reports have been positive surrounding him. He’s revved up the gimpy hamstring and had no issues in practice. If Waller does play his full-time role, he should smash this week. In Weeks 2-7, Waller had a 21.9% target share, a 26.7% air-yard share, 1.74 YPRR, and a 27.3% first-read share. New Orleans has struggled to defend tight ends, allowing the 12th-most fantasy points per game and the eighth-highest yards per reception. Week 15 Positional Value: TE1

Taysom Hill: Hill missed last week’s game with a foot and a hand issue. He was limited all week in practice before being upgraded to full on Friday. Fridays are usually a walk-through day, so I’ll take it with a grain of salt. Hill hasn’t been listed with an injury designation this week, so he’ll be active. Hill has been a dice roll all season that has paid off with some wonderful performances, but I’m keeping this die in my pocket this week. Hill isn’t a sure thing to be a full-go this week, and as good as he has been this season, he still has seven games this year in which he hasn’t hit double-digit fantasy points. There are too many good streaming options at tight end this week for me to consider plugging Hill into a lineup. Week 15 Positional Value: Sit

Washington Commanders vs. Los Angeles Rams

LAR -6.5, O/U 50.5
Commanders vs. Rams Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

Since Week 11 with Stafford back, the Rams have ranked eighth in neutral pace and 17th in neutral passing rate.
Over their last three games, Washington has continued the slow-and-throw approach with the third-slowest neutral pace and the fourth-highest neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Sam Howell: Howell is the QB7 in fantasy who’s still leading the NFL in passing attempts while ranking third in air yards. Among 42 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 25th in passer rating, 11th in CPOE, 24th in yards per attempt, and 11th in highly accurate throw rate. He has finished as a QB1 in 69.2% of his starts this season. Los Angeles was morphing into a pass funnel, but they have corrected some in that regard. Since Week 9, the Rams have ranked 15th in passer rating while allowing the 10th-most passing touchdowns, but they have also kept passing attacks at bay with the ninth-lowest CPOE and the 11th-lowest yards per attempt allowed. Howell will see a ton of volume this week as usual and could “volume his way” to another QB1 week. Week 15 Positional Value: QB1

Matthew Stafford: Stafford has been in his bag since returning in Week 11 as the QB7 in fantasy points per game. He has reeled off three straight games with at least 23 fantasy points and could make it four straight this week. Since Week 11, among 35 qualifying quarterbacks, Stafford ranks sixth in passer rating, first in passing touchdowns, and fourth in hero throw rate. Stafford should have no issues shredding a Washington secondary that has been helpless all year. Since Week 9, Washington has coughed up the third-highest yards per attempt, passing yards per game, and CPOE. Week 15 Positional Value: QB1

Running Backs

Brian Robinson: Robinson has been ruled out.

Antonio Gibson: With Brian Robinson out, Gibson likely assumes the lead role, but I doubt he plays a bellcow role. Chris Rodriguez will work in on early downs and possibly in the red zone. Gibson has been surprisingly effective as an early down rusher this season, although it has been on limited volume, his 37% missed tackles forced per attempt and 3.41 yards after contact per attempt are impressive marks. The Rams have been tough on backs on the ground and through the air. Since Week 9, they have allowed the ninth-lowest explosive run rate, the fourth-lowest rushing touchdown rate, and the 14th-fewest rushing yards per game. Overall, they have given up the lowest receiving yards per game and the lowest yards per reception to running backs. Gibson is an RB3. Week 15 Positional Value: RB3

Kyren Williams: Williams is the RB2 in fantasy points per game this season, ranking first in snap share and fifth in opportunity share. Since returning, he has averaged 24.7 touches and 143 total yards. Over the last two games, he has played 90-94% of the snaps. Williams ranks 21st in missed tackles forced per attempt and 20th in yards after contact per attempt. Since shipping off Chase Young and Montez Sweat, Washington has allowed the 10th-highest rushing touchdown rate, the third-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the ninth-highest yards per carry to gap runs (Williams 66% gap). Week 15 Positional Value: RB1

Wide Receivers

Terry McLaurin: In the ten games with McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, and Curtis Samuel all playing their full-time roles, McLauain has a 19.9% target share, a 32.3% air-yard share, 1.42 YPRR, and a 25.5% first-read share. McLaurin is the WR38 in fantasy points per game. He hasn’t finished as a top 36 fantasy receiver since Week 9. McLaurin has only three WR2 or better outings this season. He hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 8 and has only two red zone targets since that game. It’s difficult to get excited to play McLaurin these days. Since Week 9, the Rams have held perimeter wide receivers to the ninth-fewest PPR points per target. Week 15 Positional Value: WR4

Curtis Samuel: In the ten games with Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, and Samuel all playing their full-time roles, Samuel has had a 16.3% target share, 1.72 YPRR, and an 18.5% first-read share. In this sample, Samuel leads the team with four end-zone targets. Samuel has recently turned his game up to another level, too. Since Week 12, Samuels has logged a 25.4% target share and a 23.9% first-read share while churning out 3.17 yards per route run and 82.5 receiving yards per game. Howell should look to feed Samuel and Logan Thomas this week, who draw the softest matchups for the Rams. Since Week 9, Los Angeles ranks 14th in PPR points per target and 13th in receiving yards allowed to slot receivers. Week 15 Positional Value: WR3/4

Jahan Dotson: File Dotson’s 2023 season in the disappointment drawer. He is the WR56 in fantasy with WR38 or lower finishes in three of his last four games. In the ten games with Terry McLaurin, Dotson, and Curtis Samuel all playing their full-time roles, Dotson has been the third wheel in this passing attack with a 13.4% target share, 0.69 YPRR, and a 16.9% first-read share. Since Week 9, the Rams have held perimeter wide receivers to the ninth-fewest PPR points per target. Dotson is a player best left on the bench this week. Week 15 Positional Value: WR5

Puka Nacua: Well, look at that. Puka Juice didn’t spoil after Cooper Kupp returned. He wasn’t a flash in the pan. Nope. Not for a second. He is the WR11 in fantasy points per game, ranking 10th in raw target volume, 10th in receptions, fifth in receiving yards, and seventh in yards after the catch. I know I’m getting salty here, but I heard all the loud chants to trade Nacua all season before it was too late. Well, I hope you held on because if so, you’re likely walking into the playoffs. Since Week 10, Washington has utilized two-high at the sixth-highest rate (55.9%). In the six games, we have Nacua, Cooper Kupp, and Stafford all on the field playing their usual snaps; Nacua has led the way against two-high with a 27.7% target share, 37.4% air-yard share, 2.77 YPRR, and a 31.3% first-read share. The Juice will be strong this week. Since Week 9, Washington has allowed the fourth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Week 15 Positional Value: WR1

Cooper Kupp: Kupp is the WR27 in fantasy points per game, but he has recently shown some resurgence with a WR18 showing in Week 13 and a WR4 finish last week. Since Week 10, Washington has utilized two-high at the sixth-highest rate (55.9%). In the six games, we have Puka Nacua, Kupp, and Stafford all on the field playing their usual snaps; Kupp has commanded a 20.2% target share, a 24.1% air-yard share, 2.14 YPRR, and a 25% first-read share. Kupp has recently spent more time in the slot, with at least 71% of his snaps from the slot in two of his last three games. Since Week 9, Washington has allowed the most PPR points per target to slot receivers. Start your Rams studs this week. Week 15 Positional Value: WR1

Tight Ends

Logan Thomas: Thomas is the TE15 in fantasy points per game, ranking 11th in deep targets and 17th in red zone targets. He has a 13.1% target share and a 13.4% first-read share with 1.12 YPRR. Thomas has flashed some upside this season with five TE1 weeks. Thomas is an amazing tight-end option this week. The Rams have not been able to stop tight ends all year, allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game and receiving yards per game while also giving up the highest yards per reception. Week 15 Positional Value: Borderline TE1

Tyler Higbee: Higbee will be back this week. He has three TE1 weeks on his 2023 resume with a 13.9% target share and only five red zone targets. Washington has allowed the 11th-fewest fantasy points per game and the 11th-lowest yards per reception to tight ends. Week 15 Positional Value: TE2

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NBA

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The Primer: Week 15 Edition (2023 Fantasy Football)

New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins

Kansas City Chiefs vs. New England Patriots

New York Giants vs. New Orleans Saints

Washington Commanders vs. Los Angeles Rams

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