The Primer: Week 15 Edition (2023 Fantasy Football)

Chicago Bears vs. Cleveland Browns

CLE -3, O/U 38
Bears vs. Browns Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

Since Week 11, Chicago has had the second-slowest neutral pace with the ninth-highest neutral rushing rate.
With Joe Flacoo as the Browns’ starter, they have ranked 15th in neutral pace and tenth in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Justin Fields: Since his Week 11 return, Fields has been the QB11 in fantasy points per game, with QB8 and QB4 performances in two of his last three games. Since Week 4, in his five full games played, he ranks sixth in yards per attempt, third in passer rating, third in adjusted completion rate, 10th in highly accurate throw rate, and third in fantasy points per dropback. The Browns have remained a tough pass defense. Since Week 9, they have allowed the fourth-lowest yards per attempt, the second-lowest passer rating, and the fourth-lowest CPOE. They have allowed some efficient outings to mobile quarterbacks, though. Lamar Jackson and Russell Wilson combined to complete 64% of their passes with 8.4 yards per attempt while averaging 34 rushing yards and totaling three rushing scores. Since Week 9, the Browns have utilized single-high at the eighth-highest rate (59.6%). Across his last five games, Fields ranks sixth in fantasy points per dropback and fourth in yards per attempt against single-high. Week 15 Positional Value: QB1

Joe Flacco: The year is 2023, and Joe Flacco is turning in QB1 performances. Yeah, I said it. Over his last two starts, he has been the QB13 and QB10 in weekly fantasy scoring. Since Week 13, among 35 qualifying quarterbacks, Flacco ranked 20th in passer rating, 31st in CPOE, and 22nd in fantasy points per dropback. Each of his last two matchups has been plus or neutral pass defenses. That is not the case in Week 15. Since Week 9, the Bears have played stellar pass defense, allowing the second-fewest yards per attempt, the lowest passer rating, and the eighth-lowest CPOE. Flacco is a QB2 who’s better off sitting on the bench this week. Week 15 Positional Value: Sit

Running Backs

D’Onta Foreman: Foreman is the only Chicago running back making the Primer this week because he’s the only one that we can have any modicum of faith starting. Last week, Foreman returned to play 55% of the snaps with 13 touches and 72 total yards. He led the backfield with a 30% route run rate, handling three of the four backfield targets. Roschon Johnson played only 20% of the snaps and had one touch. Khalil Herbert had a similar story, with 17% of the snaps played with three touches. Among 59 qualifying backs, Foreman ranks 30th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 33rd in yards after contact per attempt. He faces an exploitable Browns run defense this week that, since Week 9, has allowed the fifth-highest missed tackles per attempt, the fourth-highest explosive run rate, and the sixth-highest yards after contact per attempt. Over their last six games, the Browns have also surrendered the seventh-highest rushing touchdown rate. Foreman is a shaky flex with upside. Week 15 Positional Value: RB3 with RB2 upside

Jerome Ford: Ford has played at least 57% of the snaps in four of his last six games, averaging 16.5 touches and 73 total yards. Ford is the RB24 in fantasy points per game, ranking 15th in weighted opportunities, 20th in snap share, and 15th in carries this season. He ranks 18th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 11th in yards after contact per attempt. Ford gets downgraded to a flex option only this week against a tough Bears run defense. Since Week 9, Chicago has allowed the sixth-lowest explosive run rate, the 11th-lowest rushing touchdown rate, and the sixth-fewest rushing yards per game. Week 15 Positional Value: Middling flex

Kareem Hunt: Over the last three games, Hunt has averaged 10.4 touches and 33 total yards. He luck boxed a touchdown last week to say his day, which was his first in the last four games. Hunt is a definite sit this week in a gruesome matchup. Since Week 9, Chicago has allowed the sixth-lowest explosive run rate, the 11th-lowest rushing touchdown rate, and the sixth-fewest rushing yards per game. Week 15 Positional Value: Sit

Wide Receivers

Remember this offseason…

When D.J. Moore couldn't be a WR1 with Justin Fields

Ahead of Week 15: WR8 in fantasy points per game

In his last five games with Fields FT:

WR5
WR2
WR6
WR9
WR3

— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) December 13, 2023

D.J. Moore: Moore has surpassed nearly every expectation this season that Fantasy GMs had this offseason as the WR8 in fantasy points per game. Moore is 16th in targets, 12th in deep targets, 11th in receptions, and seventh in receiving yards. Since Week 9, the Browns have utilized single-high at the eighth-highest rate (59.6%). Against single-high, Moore has had a 26.6% target share, a 40.8% air-yard share, 2.87 YPRR, and a 37.8% first-read share. Moore will be peppered with targets once again this week. He’s seen at least nine in every game since Week 10. He does have a tough matchup this week, though. Since Week 9, Cleveland has allowed the third-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Moore was a DNP on Wednesday, but he progressed to a limited session on Thursday and got in a full practice on Friday. Moore should suit up and play his usual role. Week 15 Positional Value: WR1/2

Darnell Mooney: Mooney has had a disappointing season as the WR79 in fantasy. He has surpassed 50 receiving yards only once in his last eight games. Since Week 9, the Browns have utilized single-high at the eighth-highest rate (59.6%). Against single-high, Mooney has a 13.1% target share, 1.33 YPRR, and a 17.3% first-read share while leading the team with four end-zone targets. Mooney draws the best matchup on the board in the slot. Since Week 9, the Browns have allowed the fifth-most PPR points per target and second-most receiving touchdowns to slot receivers. Week 15 Positional Value: Deep league flex

Amari Cooper: Cooper is the WR35 in fantasy points per game, ranking 17th in deep targets and 33rd among wide receivers in red zone targets. Last week with Flacco, he had a 31.1% target share, a 51.2% air-yard share, 1.88 YPRR, and a 39.4% first-read share. He was fed volume in a smash matchup and walked away with an okay but not amazing day with 77 receiving yards and zero touchdowns. Cooper will walk a more difficult path this week. Since Week 9, Chicago has allowed the seventh-fewest PPR points per target and second-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Week 15 Positional Value: WR3

Elijah Moore: Last week Moore’s stock came crashing back to earth with Cooper back in the lineup with a 13.3% target share, a 24.2% air-yard share, 1.27 YPRR, and an 18.2% first-read share. He did retain his outside receiver role playing 78% of his snaps on the boundary. This isn’t the week to consider flexing him. Since Week 9, Chicago has allowed the seventh-fewest PPR points per target and second-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Week 15 Positional Value: Sit

Tight Ends

Cole Kmet: Kmet is the TE7 in fantasy points per game, ranking seventh in red zone targets, sixth in raw target volume, fifth in receptions, and 10th in receiving yards. Since Week 9, the Browns have utilized single-high at the eighth-highest rate (59.6%). Among 60 qualifying tight ends against single-high, Kmet ranks 13th in target share (16.6%), 14th in YPRR and first-read share, and sixth in fantasy points per route run. Against single-high, he has run about 49% of his routes from the slot. Since Week 9, the Browns have allowed the fifth-most PPR points per target and second-most receiving touchdowns to slot receivers. If Mooney doesn’t produce from the slot this week, Kmet will. Week 15 Positional Value: TE1

David Njoku: With Flacco under center, Njoku has had a 15.7% target share, 1.57 YPRR, and a 13.1% first-read share. Since Week 7, Njoku has been the TE8 in fantasy points per game while ranking second among tight ends in end-zone targets and yards after the catch per reception. Chicago has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game and receptions per game to tight ends. Njoku has another TE1 performance in Week 15. Week 15 Positional Value: TE1

Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers

ATL -3, O/U 33.5
Falcons vs. Panthers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

Since Week 9, Atlanta has ranked eighth in neutral pace while sporting the highest neutral rushing rate in the NFL.
Across their last three games, Carolina has the ninth-slowest neutral pace while ranking second in neutral rushing rate.

Quarterbacks

Desmond Ridder: Since taking back over as Atlanta’s starter in Week 12, Ridder has ranked 15th in yards per attempt, 29th in passer rating, 26th in adjusted completion rate, and 29th in highly accurate throw rate. He managed a good fantasy outing against Tampa Bay last week, but many subpar quarterbacks before him have been able to do the same. Ridder won’t be able to do that against Carolina. The Panther’s offense might be a pushover, but their pass defense is not. Since Week 9, Carolina has held quarterbacks to the lowest yards per attempt and passing yards per game and the sixth-lowest CPOE. Week 15 Positional Value: QB2

Bryce Young: Young continues to search for a double-digit fantasy point outing without any luck. He hasn’t managed double-digit fantasy points since Week 9. That pretty much tells you all you need to know about Young and his fantasy outlook. For the remainder of 2023, it’s incredibly bleak. If you made it into the fantasy playoffs, it wasn’t because of Young. If you move on, it also won’t be because of Young. Week 15 Positional Value: Sit

Running Backs

Bijan Robinson: Robinson has played 75% of the snaps in three of his last four games, averaging 19.5 touches and 99.1 total yards. His receiving usage has been especially helpful since Week 12, as he has averaged 3.7 receptions and 37.3 receiving yards per game. Robinson is the RB13 in fantasy points per game, ranking tenth in snap share and eighth in weighted opportunities. Robinson ranks seventh in missed tackles forced per attempt and 30th in yards after contact per attempt. Robinson should dominate this week against a Panthers’ run defense that, since Week 9, has allowed the 11th-highest rushing touchdown rate, the seventh-highest missed tackles per attempt, and the 12th-highest yards per carry to zone runs (Robinson 69.2% zone). Week 15 Positional Value: RB1

Chuba Hubbard: This is Hubbard’s backfield. Over the last three games, he has played at least 64% of the snaps weekly, averaging 23 touches and 97.4 total yards with RB11, RB6, and RB25 finishes. Hubbard ranks 31st in missed tackles forced per attempt and 25th in yards after contact per attempt. He faces an Atlanta defense that has been a neutral matchup for backs. Since Week 9, they have allowed the 11th-most rushing yards per game while ranking 16th in yards after contact per attempt and 19th in explosive run rate allowed. Hubbard is a weekly RB2/3. Week 15 Positional Value: RB2

Wide Receivers

Drake London: Well, I told you to start London last week. Good lord, he had a monster game, securing 10 of his 11 targets with 172 receiving yards. London’s talent has and should never be in question. He is one of the best young wide receivers in the game and a true alpha. The problem has always been and continues to be Atlanta’s offensive system and his usage. The last time he faced this secondary, he had only one target and goose-egged across the board. While I don’t foresee that happening again, I don’t think it will be a banner day. Since Week 2, London has had a 22.9% target share, a 32.2% air-yard share, 2.27 YPRR, and a 28.7% first-read share. Since Week 9, Carolina has utilized the second-highest rate of single-high (64.8%). Since Week 2, against single-high, Londan has seen his target share drop to 19.3% with a 27.5% air-yard share and 1.66 YPRR. He has still led the team with a 24.4% first-read share. Since Week 9, Carolina has allowed the ninth-lowest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Week 15 Positional Value: WR3

Adam Thielen: After his miraculous start to the season, Thielen has cooled considerably as the Panthers’ passing attack has stalled. Since Week 8, he has seen a 23.0% target share and a 28.2% first-read share, which has amounted to 45.4 receiving yards per game and 1.25 YPRR. This is a solid matchup for Thielen to be considered a strong WR3/flex this week. Thielen will run about 69% of his routes against Dee Alfored (71.7% catch rate and 108.5 passer rating). Since Week 8, Atlanta has given up the seventh-most PPR points per target to slot receivers. Week 15 Positional Value: WR3

Tight Ends

Kyle Pitts: Over the last two games, Pitts has seen an uptick in his usage with an 80% route run rate, a 20.9% target share, and a 22.6% first-read share producing 1.80 YPRR. This has yielded TE11 and TE7 weekly finishes. Pitts has operated as the team’s starting slot receiver (51.7% slot). This isn’t a great matchup for Pitts on paper, as Carolina has held slot receivers to the 12th-lowest PPR points per target since Week 8. With the bar being set low weekly for fantasy tight ends to sneak into the TE1 conversation, can Pitts do it in Week 15? Sure, but there are a ton of solid streaming options this week that could out-produce him. Week 15 Positional Value: Borderline TE1

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Green Bay Packers

GB -3.5, O/U 42
Buccaneers vs. Packers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

Since Week 9, Tampa Bay has slowed things down and moved to a run-heavy approach, ranking 17th in neutral pace and fifth in neutral rushing rate.
Over their last six games, Green Bay has been a slow-and-throw team with the 12th-slowest neutral pace while ranking 13th in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Baker Mayfield: Mayfield is the QB18 in fantasy points per game, but he has consistently hovered around low-end QB1 production for most of the season. Mayfield has finished as a QB1 in weekly fantasy scoring in five of his last eight games (QB11, QB11, QB8, QB10, QB12). Mayfield ranks 26th in yards per attempt, 19th in passer rating, 22nd in CPOE, and 23rd in fantasy points per dropback. Green Bay has been a neutral to below-average matchup, depending on which metrics you stare at. Since Week 9, they rank 20th in yards per attempt, 14th in passer rating, and 17th in fantasy points allowed via passing. In that span, they have held quarterbacks to the seventh-lowest CPOE. Week 15 Positional Value: QB2

Jordan Love: Love was erratic in Week 14, and that’s being kind. While I was not a fan of his performance last week, we can’t just pretend like the strides he made in previous weeks shouldn’t be factored in. If he goes out this week and stinks it up again, then we might need to reverse course when looking at Week 16. Since Week 9, Love has ranked eighth in yards per attempt, sixth in passer rating, fifth in CPOE, and 13th in fantasy points per dropback. He should shred a Tampa Bay secondary that can’t stop anyone. Since Week 9, the Bucs have allowed the fourth-highest yards per attempt, the most passing yards per game, and the seventh-highest CPOE and passing touchdowns. Week 15 Positional Value: QB1

Running Backs

Rachaad White: White remains a locked-in RB1 weekly. He’s the RB9 in fantasy points per game, averaging 19.2 touches and 89.5 total yards. His weekly volume and pass-game role continue to fuel his production. He is seventh in opportunity share, sixth in weighted opportunities, and fourth in snap share. Among 59 qualifying backs, he ranks 50th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 53rd in yards after contact per attempt. Green Bay has remained a wonderful run funnel since Week 9, allowing the fifth-highest explosive run rate, the third-most rushing yards per game, and the seventh-highest yards after contact per attempt. Week 15 Positional Value: RB1

Matt LaFleur on whether AJ Dillon could handle the ball in practice w/his broken thumb: "We're kinda working through it right now. We'll see where we're at…Had it padded pretty good."

On Aaron Jones' progress: "He did what he needed to do today."

Both listed as questionable.

— Rob Demovsky (@RobDemovsky) December 15, 2023

Aaron Jones: Jones was limited all week in practice and has been listed as questionable. I think we finally get Jones back this week. If Dillon is limited or out, Jones could own this backfield this week. In the three games Jones has played at least 50% of the snaps this season, he has averaged 17.2 touches and 66.4 total yards. Jones has rarely been truly healthy this season, and when he has been available, he has not been effective. Among 59 qualifying backs, he ranks 39th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 48th in yards after contact per attempt. Tampa Bay’s run defense has sprung a leak recently. Since Week 9, they have allowed the fourth-highest missed tackles per attempt and the sixth-highest rushing touchdown rate while also sporting the 13th-lowest stuff rate. Jones should sniff 15-20 touches this week if he is back to “mostly” full health. Week 15 Positional Value: RB2

A.J. Dillon: Dillon has a broken thumb. He didn’t practice on Wednesday or Thursday, but he was listed with a limited session on Friday. Expecting Dillon to play this week with a broken thumb is a stretch. There’s no way I can trust Dillon in a lineup even if he’s active because his volume could be cut sizably. Week 15 Positional Value: Sit

Wide Receivers

Mike Evans: Evans had a rare dud last week as A.J. Terrell played incredibly well and erased him from the game plan. Evans will look to bounce back this week. He is the WR9 in fantasy points per game, ranking second in deep targets and 14th in red zone targets. Since Week 10, Green Bay has rocked with single-high at the 10th-highest rate (59.1%). Evans had decimated single-high with a 26.2% target share, a 45.4% air-yard share, 3.20 YPRR, and a 31.6% first-read share. Among 112 qualifying wide receivers, Evans ranks eighth in fantasy points per route run against single-high. Since Week 8, the Packers have allowed the 13th-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Week 15 Positional Value: WR1

Chris Godwin: Godwin didn’t practice on Wednesday or Thursday. He did practice in full on Friday. He has been listed as questionable. Godwin is the WR42 in fantasy in what has been an incredibly disappointing season. The team has been trying to get him going without any luck. With Mike Evans locked up with A.J. Terrell last week, Godwin was fed 11 targets, and he could only muster five receptions for 53 scoreless yards as the WR33 for the week. Sadly, it was his first double-digit fantasy outing since Week 8. Since Week 10, Green Bay has rocked with single-high at the 10th-highest rate (59.1%). Against single-high, Godwin has a 22.1% target share, 1.65 YPRR, and a 27.9% first-read share. He has only 0.36 fantasy points per route run against single-high. Godwin looks bound for another low-ceiling flex week. Week 15 Positional Value: WR4

Christian Watson: Watson didn’t practice all week. He has been listed as doubtful. He won’t suit up this week.

Jayden Reed: Reed has stepped up since Week 8 he has been the WR20 in fantasy points per game. Over the last four weeks, he has been “Dairy Belt Deebo Samuel” with at least 38 rushing yards twice and two rushing scores. Since Week 10, the Buccaneers have utilized single-high at the 12th-highest rate (58.3%). Since Week 8, against single-high, Reed has a team-high 20.4% target share and a 25% first-read share with 1.90 YPRR. Since Week 8, Tampa Bay has given up the sixth-highest PPR points per target and the fifth-most receiving yards to slot receivers. Reed should smash. Week 15 Positional Value: WR2/3

Romeo Doubs: Doubs is the WR36 in fantasy points per game, ranking 14th in red zone targets. Since Week 10, the Buccaneers have utilized single-high at the 12th-highest rate (58.3%). Since Week 8, against single-high, he has seen an 11.3% target share with only 0.58 YPRR and a 14.0% first-read share. None of these numbers paint a pretty picture for Doubs this week, but the weakness of the Tampa Bay corners could elevate Doubs to a decent fantasy day. Since Week 8, the Bucs have allowed the 10th-most PPR points per target and the most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Week 15 Positional Value: WR4

Tight Ends

Cade Otton: Otton is the TE17 in fantasy points per game and a familiar streaming option this season. He has four TE1 weeks this year while ranking 10th in red zone targets among tight ends. Otton is a low-end streaming option again this week. Green Bay has allowed the third-highest yards per reception to tight ends while ranking 18th in fantasy points per game. Week 15 Positional Value: TE2

Tucker Kraft: Kraft has fulfilled the hope that man had for Luke Musgrave this season. Since assuming the starting spot in Week 12, he has finished as a TE1 twice (TE11, TE12). Over the last two weeks, he has played 95-100% of the snaps, seeing a 13.3% target share and 14% first-read share with 1.80 YPRR. Kraft should turn in another TE1 week to open the fantasy playoffs, facing off against a defense that has allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game and the fifth-most receiving yards per game to tight ends. Week 15 Positional Value: TE1

Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans

TEN -3.5, O/U 36.5
Texans vs. Titans Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

Since Week 8, Houston has ranked 14th in neutral pace and 12th in neutral passing rate.
With Will Levis at the controls, Tennessee has had the eighth-slowest neutral pace and the seventh-highest neural rushing rate.

Quarterbacks

Interesting. When asked who'd be the starter between Davis Mills or Case Keenum if Stroud can't go, DeMeco Ryans was non-committal:

"Everybody is prepared…We’re going to go at this thing as a team, and that’s how we’ll approach it.”https://t.co/GGsYocSW4G

— Jonathan M Alexander (@jonmalexander) December 15, 2023

C.J. Stroud: Stroud has not practiced all week (concussion). He has been listed as doubtful. I doubt we will see Stroud play this week. Houston has decided to play it coy and not name a starter for this week as well, so we have no clue who will be under center. That makes this a situation to avoid for fantasy.

Will Levis: Since assuming the starting job in Week 8, Levis has been a QB2 outside of his eruptions against the Falcons and Dolphins. Since Week 8, among 33 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 19th in passer rating, 22nd in CPOE, and 25th in fantasy points per dropback. His play-to-play consistency is still lacking, as he has the highest off-target throw rate among the quarterbacks in that sample. Levis could post another strong performance this week, though, against a struggling Texans secondary. Since Week 9, Houston has allowed the second-highest yards per attempt, the sixth-most passing yards per game, and the eighth-highest CPOE. Week 15 Positional Value: QB2

Running Backs

Devin Singletary: Last week, Singletary resumed his lead-back status for Houston, playing 57% of the snaps with 13 touches and 65 total yards. Among 59 qualifying backs, he ranks 26th in explosive run rate and 16th in missed tackles forced per attempt. Singeltary is an RB3/flex this week against a Titans’ run defense that has rebounded. Since Week 10, Tennessee has allowed the 11th-lowest explosive run rate and the 14th-lowest rushing touchdown rate while having the second-highest stuff rate. Week 15 Positional Value: RB3/flex

Dameon Pierce: Pierce is droppable at this juncture. His role and usage in this backfield are unpredictable. He has two games with less than 20% of the snaps played (18%, 14%) since returning from injury. He had only five touches and seven total yards last week. This type of basement-level floor can’t be counted on in the fantasy playoffs. Week 15 Positional Value: Droppable

Derrick Henry: Over the last three weeks, Henry’s snap share has bounced all over the map from 40-64%, but his volume has remained consistent with 19.7 touches and 82.4 total yards per game. Henry has been a fairly consistent producer this season as the RB12 in fantasy points per game, ranking 13th in opportunity share and weighted opportunity. Among 59 qualifying backs, he ranks 11th in explosive run rate, 22nd in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 17th in yards after contact per attempt. He faces a recently exploitable Houston run defense. Since Week 9, they have allowed the 13th-highest explosive run rate, the sixth-most missed tackles per attempt, and the eighth-highest rushing touchdown rate. Henry’s wobbling snap count makes him shakier than in previous seasons, but he’s still a solid bet for 15 opportunities and goal-line work. Week 15 Positional Value: RB1/2

Tyjae Spears: Spears exploded last week with a 66% snap count, 13 touches, and 118 total yards. The snap count wasn’t a shocker because Spears had seen the mid-50s before and grazed the 60% mark previously, but it had previously been empty calorie snaps where Spears didn’t see any volume. Spears could return to that this week, or the team could continue to involve him at a high clip. This would be advantageous for their young, erratic quarterback to give him an explosive check-down option. Spears ranks fourth in explosive run rate and yards after contact per attempt. He faces a Houston defense that, since Week 9, has allowed the 13th-highest explosive run rate, the sixth-most missed tackles per attempt, and the eighth-highest rushing touchdown rate. Houston has also given up the ninth-most receptions per game and the eighth-highest yards per reception to running backs in the passing game. Week 15 Positional Value: RB3

Wide Receivers

Nico Collins: Collins has been ruled out.

Noah Brown: Brown has not resembled the same player we fell in love with in Weeks 9-10 since his return from injury. Over the last two weeks, he has only drawn a 12.5% target share and has had zero receptions. In Weeks 8-10, Brown had a 17.1% target share, a 23.4% air-yard share, 4.55 yards per route run, and a 16.7% first-read share, as he averaged 127.3 receiving yards per game over that stretch. Last week, Brown led the team with a 21.1% first-read share while operating as a boundary receiver on 75% of his snaps. Brown is solid flex play this week if Collins is out against a Titans’ secondary that, since Week 9, has allowed the sixth-most PPR points per target and the third-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Week 15 Positional Value: WR4

DeAndre Hopkins: After last week’s big game, Hopkins is the WR21 in fantasy points per game, ranking second in deep targets and eighth in red zone looks. With Levis under center, Hopkins has had a 26.0% target share, a 45% air-yard share, 2.69 YPRR, and a 32.5% first-read share. Since Week 9, Houston has deployed two-high at the fifth-highest rate (58.4%). Since Week 8, against two-high, Hopkins YPRR has ballooned to 3.61, and his first-read share has increased to 34.7%. Hopkins should feast again this week. Since Week 9, Houston has allowed the second-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Week 15 Positional Value: WR1/2

Tight Ends

#Texans tight end Dalton Schultz is trending toward returning Sunday after missing past two games with strained hamstring @KPRC2

— Aaron Wilson (@AaronWilson_NFL) December 13, 2023

Dalton Schultz: Schultz will be back this week. In Weeks 1-11, with Schultz playing full-time snaps, he saw a 15.7% target share with 1.74 YPRR and a 15.8% first-read share. In those ten games, Schultz had a whopping eight end-zone targets. Unfortunately, Schultz returns just in time to draw a wretched matchup for tight ends. Tennessee is the only team in the NFL that hasn’t allowed a receiving touchdown to a tight end. The Titans have kept the position in check with the second-fewest fantasy points per game and the eighth-fewest receiving yards per game surrendered. Week 15 Positional Value: TE2

Chigoziem Okonkwo: Since Week 12, Okonkwo has had a 60.9% route run rate, a 16.2% target share, 2.28 YPRR, and a 14.9% first-read share. Chig is still looking for his first touchdown of the season. He has only seen four red zone targets this season, so that’s the likely culprit for his barren touchdown cupboard. The good thing is two of those targets inside the 20 have come in the last four games. Houston has allowed the third-most fantasy points per game and receiving yards per game to tight ends. Week 15 Positional Value: TE2 with TE1 upside

NFL NFL Primers Start/Sit Weekly Advice Justin Fields Lamar Jackson Russell Wilson Joe Flacco D’Onta Foreman Roschon Johnson Khalil Herbert Jerome Ford Kareem Hunt D.J. Moore Darnell Mooney Amari Cooper Elijah Moore Cole Kmet David Njoku Desmond Ridder Bryce Young Bijan Robinson Chuba Hubbard Drake London Adam Thielen Kyle Pitts Baker Mayfield Jordan Love Rachaad White Aaron Jones A.J. Dillon Mike Evans A.J. Terrell Chris Godwin Christian Watson Jayden Reed Deebo Samuel Romeo Doubs Cade Otton Tucker Kraft Luke Musgrave Will Levis C.J. Stroud Devin Singletary Dameon Pierce Derrick Henry Tyjae Spears Nico Collins Noah Brown DeAndre Hopkins Dalton Schultz Chigoziem Okonkwo