The Primer: Week 15 Edition (2023 Fantasy Football)

The Fantasy Football playoffs are here. Fourteen long weeks of grinding, hoping, and sweating have all led to this. Instead of breathing a sigh of relief, now the real work begins. Whether you are a first-place team coasting into the playoffs or the scrappy bottom dweller that grabbed the final spot to the big dance, everyone now has a chance to take home the gold. Punching your ticket and grabbing a seat at the table was the goal.

Welcome to the Week 15 Primer.

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Fantasy Football Primer

Minnesota Vikings vs. Cincinnati Bengals

CIN -3, O/U 40.5
Vikings vs. Bengals Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

With Jake Browning under center, the Bengals have ranked ninth in neutral pace and 16th in neutral passing rate.
Since Week 11, Minnesota has ranked 18th in neutral pace and 22nd in neutral passing rate. I’d expect a similar run-balanced approach this week.

Quarterbacks

Nick Mullens: Mullens replaced Dobbs last week against the Raiders. He stepped in and completed 69.2% of his passes with 6.3 yards per attempt. The last time we saw him receive an extended run as a starter, he was a below-average NFL quarterback. Among 44 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked 39th in passing grade, 24th in adjusted completion rate, and 37th in big-time throw rate. He also had the third-highest turnover-worthy play rate. Don’t expect game-changing quarterback play from Mullens this week, but the juicy matchup could help elevate his performance. Since Week 9, the Bengals’ pass defense has been a struggle bus unit. They have allowed the fifth-highest yards per attempt, the fourth-most passing yards per game, and the second-highest CPOE. Mullens could return high-end QB2 production this week. Week 15 Positional Value: QB2

Jake Browning: Ok, Browning. Ok. I see you. Back-to-back QB4 performances in fantasy will force anyone’s eyes open. Since Week 12, among 37 qualifying quarterbacks, he has ranked second in yards per attempt, CPOE, highly accurate target rate, and fantasy points per dropback. Browning has been balling. Minnesota’s pass defense has been on the rise for the last few weeks. Since Week 9, they have held passers to the fifth-lowest yards per attempt and third-fewest passing touchdowns. Despite the Vikings blitzing like crazy still, they have ranked dead last in time to pressure and own the third-lowest pressure rate since Week 9. Browning should have another strong outing. Week 15 Positional Value: QB2 with QB1 upside

Running Backs

Ty Chandler: Chandler could draw the start this week with Alexander Mattison dealing with an ankle injury. He has flashed some juice in spurts, but overall, his efficiency metrics haven’t been pretty. Among 60 qualifying backs, he ranks 57th in missed tackles forced per attempt and yards after contact per attempt. Volume should be on his side this week if he draws the start with 20 20-touch upside. The Bengals have remained a run defense to attack. Since Week 9, they have had the eighth-lowest stuff rate while allowing the 11th-highest missed tackles per attempt and the third-highest yards before contact per attempt. Week 15 Positional Value: RB2

Joe Mixon: Mixon remains the Bengal’s workhorse. Yes, Chase Brown has stepped in as a second option in the Bengals’ backfield, but he has not hampered Mixon’s workload. Last week, Mixon still played 63% of the snaps while handling 24 touches and rolling up 125 total yards. Among 59 qualifying backs, he ranks 29th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 44th in yards after contact per attempt. Mixon is the RB10 in fantasy points per game, ranking seventh in weighted opportunities and fourth in red zone touches. Mixon has a tall task to finish with a strong showing this week. Minnesota has been a shutdown unit against backs. Since Week 9, they have held rushers to the lowest explosive run rate, the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game, and the second-lowest rushing touchdown rate. Mixon remains in the RB2 conversation based on volume. Week 15 Positional Value: RB2

Chase Brown: Brown has entered the high-end handcuff conversation. He has averaged 10 touches, 23% of snaps played, and 83 total yards over the last two weeks. This isn’t the matchup to consider flexing him, but he’s a priority add to the end of your bench if you have Mixon on your roster or the room for a handcuff dice roll. Since Week 9, Minnesota has held rushers to the lowest explosive run rate, the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game, and the second-lowest rushing touchdown rate. Week 15 Positional Value: Handcuff

Wide Receivers

Justin Jefferson: Jefferson has stated he will play this week. Assuming he plays his usual role with this normal top-shelf effectiveness, Jefferson should shred this secondary. In Weeks 1-5, Jefferson had a 26.0% target share, a 37.9% air-yard share, 2.99 YPRR, and a 35% first-read share. He returns to elite WR1 status despite catching passes from Nick Mullens. Since Week 8, the Bengals have allowed the seventh-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Week 15 Positional Value: WR1

Jordan Addison: Addison should be the number three option in the Vikings’ passing attack this week behind Jefferson and Hockenson. In Weeks 1-5, with Jefferson in the lineup, Addison had a 13.7% target share, a 23.9% air-yard share, 1.65 YPRR, and a 15.4% first-read share. He was tied for the team lead in end-zone targets in this stretch. Yes, those numbers were at the beginning of his rookie season, and his role has grown since that point, but we have to return to the Nick Mullens conversation. How many receiving weapons can Mullens support weekly? Also, there are only so many targets to go around, so someone has to find themselves on the short end, and it won’t be Jefferson or Hockenson. Since Week 8, the Bengals have allowed the seventh-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Week 15 Positional Value: WR3/4

Ja’Marr Chase: With Browning at the helm, Chase has seen a 24.4% target share, a 46.5% air-yard share, and a 29.2% first-read share. He’s managed 2.91 YPRR while seeing a whopping 27.3% of this targets via designed looks. The Bengals have been trying like hell to get the ball in Chase’s hands at all times. This sounds like a wise decision. Chase is the WR6 in fantasy points per game with two top-36 finishes in these last three games (WR33, WR6). He is 18th in deep targets and second in red zone looks among wide receivers. Chase faces a secondary that, since Week 9, has ranked 14th in PPR points per target allowed to perimeter wide while allowing the seventh-most receiving yards per game. Week 15 Positional Value: WR1

Tee Higgins: With Browning tossing the rock, it has been difficult to have any confidence plugging Higgins into a lineup. In his two games with Browning, he has averaged 54 receiving yards, but he has drawn only a 10.9% target share. He has been the downfield guy with a 13.4 aDOT and 42.3% air-yard share, so splash play upside is there but this isn’t the matchup to chase it. Since Week 9, Minnesota has allowed the 10th-lowest passer rating and the seventh-fewest deep passing yards per game. Sit Higgins. Week 15 Positional Value: WR4 / Sit

Tyler Boyd: Boyd is droppable. With Browning he has drawn a 14.4% target share, but he has only mustered 27.7 receiving yards per game with his volume and his 4.7 aDOT. He has also only garnered a 15.4% first read share and zero end zone targets with Browning. Since Week 9, Minnesota has held slot receivers to the fourth-lowest PPR points per target. Week 15 Positional Value: Sit

Tight Ends

T.J. Hockenson: Hockenson is the TE2 in fantasy points per game, ranking eighth in deep targets, fourth in red zone looks, and fourth in total touchdowns among tight ends. Among 40 qualifying tight ends, he ranks first in target share (23.9%), sixth in YPRR (1.96), eighth in end zone targets, and first in first-read share (26.9%). Cincinnati has been ripped to shreds by tight ends all season, allowing the most fantasy points per game and the most receiving yards per game to the position. If Mullens can at least offer league-average target quality this week, Hockenson should post a monster game. Week 15 Positional Value: TE1

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Indianapolis Colts

IND -1.5, O/U 42
Steelers vs. Colts Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

Last week with Trubisky, Pittsburgh ranked sixth in neutral pace and fifth in neutral passing rate. After the game he had last week, I’d be surprised to see the Steelers run it back this week with that pass-first design.
Since Week 6, with Minshew as the starter, Indy has ranked first in neutral pace and 13th in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Mitch Trubisky: Last week, Mitch Trubisky pulled off his best smoke-and-mirrors high-wire act to finish as the QB8 in fantasy. His 30 rushing yards and one rushing score massively inflated his fantasy output. Trubisky is dreadful as a passer. He was tough to watch last week. In Week 14, among 31 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked 23rd in yards per attempt and passer rating, 24th in CPOE, and 20th in highly accurate throw rate. Trubisky is set for a long day against Indy. Since Week 9, they have kept passers in check, allowing the seventh-lowest passer rating, the eighth-fewest passing touchdowns, and the sixth-fewest fantasy points via passing. The Colts have also ranked eighth in time to pressure over their last five games, so Trubisky won’t have much time in the pocket this week. Week 15 Positional Value: QB2

Gardner Minshew: Since taking over in Week 6, Minshew has been a solid QB2, running 26th in fantasy points per dropback and 23rd in fantasy points per game. Among 35 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 21st in yards per attempt, 28th in passer rating, and 30th in CPOE. Since Week 9, the Steelers have been a neutral to below-average matchup for quarterbacks, depending on which metrics you are staring at. Over their last six games, the Steelers have ranked 17th in yards per attempt and 18th in adjusted completion rate allowed while also containing passers with the tenth-lowest pass rating and the 12th-lowest CPOE allowed. Don’t expect Minshew to post a difference-making score this week. Week 15 Positional Value: QB2

Running Backs

Najee Harris: Harris is the RB33 in fantasy points per game, averaging 16.3 touches and 72 total yards since Week 9. Since that week, he has crushed Jaylen Warren in red zone usage with 15 opportunities inside the 20 versus Warren’s nine. Harris ranks 27th in opportunity share and 22nd in weighted opportunities. Among 59 qualifying backs, Harris ranks 26th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 23rd in yards after contact per attempt. Pittsburgh should lean on their ground game this week against a porous Indy run defense. Since Week 9, they have allowed the sixth-most rushing yards and the 11th-highest yards after contact per attempt while also having the second-lowest stuff rate. Week 15 Positional Value: RB2/3

Jaylen Warren: Warren has seen his workload dip recently, with 12.3 touches and 75.5 total yards per game since Week 11. He has also lost the red zone battle against Harris since Week 9 with only nine opportunities versus Harris’s 15. Warrens remains top-shelf in explosive metrics, ranking second in missed tackles forced per attempt and third in yards after contact per attempt. He easily could break a long run this week and pay off as a strong flex play. Since Week 9, Indy has allowed the sixth-most rushing yards and the 11th-highest yards after contact per attempt while also having the second-lowest stuff rate. Week 15 Positional Value: RB3

Zack Moss: Since taking back over as Indy’s bell-cow, Moss has underwhelmed, averaging 19 touches and 56.5 total yards while averaging 89% of the snaps played. Since Week 13, Moss has been underwhelming in elusiveness metrics. Over the last two games among 38 qualifying backs, he has ranked 36th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 31st in yards after contact per attempt. He has been a shell of his earlier season self with zero explosive runs over the last two games. Moss faces a Steelers’ run defense that has found its way over the last few weeks. Since Week 9, they have had the ninth-highest stuff rate while allowing the 10th-lowest explosive run rate and the 12th-lowest yards per carry to zone runs (Moss 81.3% zone across his last two games). Moss will see 18-20 touches this week, but it’s fair to wonder what he’ll do with them. Week 15 Positional Value: RB1/2

Wide Receivers

Diontae Johnson: Since his Week 7 return, Johnson has seen a 24.9% target share, a 44.8% air-yard share, and a 31.3% first read share as the WR33 in fantasy points per game. Johnson has only three red zone targets over his last five games. With Trubisky under center, Johnson is a volume play only. Considering how up and down Trubisky’s quarterback play was last week, don’t be surprised if Pittsburgh limits the passing volume this week and tries to grind out a win, which would hurt Johnson. Since Week 9, Indy has allowed the ninth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Week 15 Positional Value: WR3

George Pickens: Since Johnson’s return, Pickens has an 18% target share, a 31.7% air-yard share, 1.53 YPRR, and a 21.6% first-read share. Pickens has only one top-36 wide receiver finish (WR30) and three red zone targets over his last seven games. Last week, he saw a 16.7% target share, but he was neutered in a low aDOT role (3.2). If you’re in a deep league and are forced to start him, I get it, but it’s tough to do so with any shred of confidence at this point. The matchup is nice this week, though, which could help him return to the ranks of benign, a usable flex option. Week 15 Positional Value: WR4/5

Michael Pittman: Pittman has been a volume vacuuming monster with Minshew under center. He’s essentially been Indy’s Keenan Allen, gobbling up targets weekly with reckless abandon. Since Week 6, he has had a 29.8% target share, a 34.9% air-yard share, 2.30 YPRR, and a 37.4% first-read share. He has at least 11 targets in six of his last eight games while also amassing 13 red zone targets in the same timeframe. Pittman is the WR12 in fantasy points per game this season, with at least 19.5 PPR points in each of his last three games. This week could be a different story, though. Since Week 8, Pittsburgh has utilized Joey Porter Jr. (42.5% catch rate and 61.8 passer rating) five times as he’s followed Calvin Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins, Amari Cooper, Ja’Marr Chase, and Marquise Brown on 50-89.5% of their routes. Only Chase managed to surpass 50 receiving yards in Porter’s coverage, and none of these receivers scored a touchdown. Pittman will be tested early and often my Porter Jr. Week 15 Positional Value: WR2

Josh Downs: Downs could lead the way for Indy’s aerial attack this week. Since Week 6, he has had a 15.9% target share, 1.68 YPRR, and a 17.7% first-read share. Over his last three games, Downs has three red zone targets, but they all came in Week 12. Downs could see high volume usage this week if Porter Jr. locks down Pittman and they are unable to run the ball. Downs will run about 82% of his routes against Patrick Peterson (57.4% catch rate and 96.8 passer rating). Since Week 9, Pittsburgh has allowed the fourth-most PPR points per target and receiving yards to slot receivers. Week 15 Positional Value: WR3

Tight Ends

Pat Freiermuth: In the last two games, since Freiermuth’s monster game, his numbers have fallen back to earth with a 69.4% route run rate, a 15.9% target share, 0.94 YPRR, and a 15% first-read share. He has failed to surpass 30 receiving yards in three of his last four games. Indy has been a fruitful matchup for tight ends all season. They have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game and the ninth-most receiving yards per game to the position. Freiermuth is a TE2 who could sneak back into the TE1 good graces this week. Week 15 Positional Value: TE2

Denver Broncos vs. Detroit Lions

DET -4.5, O/U 48
Broncos vs. Lions Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

Since Week 9, Detroit has ranked fifth in neutral pace with the third-highest neutral rushing rate.
This game will be faster-paced than most would expect. Since Week 11, Denver has ranked 12th in neutral pace while sitting at 16th in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Russell Wilson: Wilson is the QB15 in fantasy points per game, but he’s been flirting with QB1 production almost weekly over the last few games. Over his last five contests, he has three QB1 finishes (QB11, QB12, QB11). Wilson has been playing good football since Week 10. Across his last five games, among 30 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks ninth in passer rating, sixth in CPOE, second in highly accurate throw rate, and 11th in fantasy points per dropback. Wilson looks poised for a strong outing this week against a team that should force Denver’s hand into more passing. Since Week 9, Detroit has allowed the sixth-highest yards per attempt, the fifth-most passing touchdowns, and the third-highest passer rating. Over the last five weeks, Detroit has been crushed by deep passing allowing the second-highest passer rating and the eighth-highest adjusted completion rate to passes 20 yards or more downfield. Week 15 Positional Value: QB1

Jared Goff: The Lions have been dialing back the pass attempts lately, as Goff has averaged only 30 attempts over his last two games. His per-play efficiency has remained pretty stable, but his volume reduction and some tough matchups have led him to post only two QB1 games over his last seven starts. Since Week 9, he ranks ninth in yards per attempt and 11th in passer rating and highly accurate throw rate. Look for Detroit to lean on their ground game this week against a formidable Denver pass defense. Since Week 9, they have contained passers with the fourth-lowest passer rating, the second-fewest passing touchdowns, and the eighth-lowest adjusted completion rate allowed. Week 15 Positional Value: QB2

Running Backs

Javonte Williams: Williams is the RB29 in fantasy points per game, ranking 20th in opportunity share and weighted opportunities. He is also 12th in carries and 15th in red zone touches. Over the last three games, he has averaged 19 touches and 77.3 total yards while playing 60-70% of the snaps. Since Week 8, Williams has been struggling to break tackles. Since that point, among 40 qualifying backs, he has ranked 31st in yards after contact per attempt and 33rd in missed tackles forced per attempt. That won’t help Williams this week against a tough Detroit run defense. Since Week 9, they have had the eighth-highest stuff rate while also allowing the 11th-lowest missed tackles per attempt and the third-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Williams remains a good bet for 15-plus touches. If he falls into the end zone, he’s likely a mid to low-end RB2. Week 15 Positional Value: RB2

David Montgomery: Montgomery is the RB7 in fantasy points per game, averaging 14.6 touches and 85 total yards since his Week 10 return. He has seen 15 red zone opportunities over the last five games (Gibbs 10). Since Week 10, among 49 qualifying backs, he ranks 14th in missed tackles forced per attempt and third in yards after contact per attempt. Montgomery is fifth in red zone touches this season despite playing only ten games. This is the perfect matchup for Montgomery to get 18-20 carries against a run defense that, since Week 9, has allowed the ninth-highest explosive run rate and yards after contact per attempt and the 12th-highest rushing touchdown rate. Week 15 Positional Value: RB1/2

Jahmyr Gibbs: It has been a good year to be a running back on the Lions’ depth chart. Gibbs is the RB6 in fantasy points per game. He has averaged 13.8 touches and 83.2 total yards since Week 10. Gibbs’ pass game role has been alive and well, with at least five targets in three of his last five games. Gibbs is 17th in weighted opportunities and fifth in targets among backs. Gibbs has been on the wrong side of the red zone usage battle since Week 10, with only ten opportunities versus Montgomery’s 15. Since Week 10, Gibbs has ranked eighth in explosive run rate and 15th in yards after contact per attempt. This game profiles more as a Montgomery game, but Gibbs will still see plenty of work this week with the ability to break a long score anytime he touches the ball. Since Week 9, Denver has allowed the ninth-highest explosive run rate and yards after contact per attempt and the 12th-highest rushing touchdown rate. Week 15 Positional Value: RB1/2

Wide Receivers

Courtland Sutton: Sutton has been a touchdown machine this season with ten total scores (second-most). He is the WR22 in fantasy points per game, ranking 18th in deep targets and seventh in red zone targets. Sutton has a 20.9% target share, a 41.7% air-yar share, 1.91 YPRR, and a 25.6% first-read share. Since Week 9, Detroit has utilized single-high at the sixth-highest rate (63.2%). Against single-high, Sutton has seen a 23.3% target share with a 37.9% air-yard share and 2.30 YPRR. Against this coverage alignment, he has seen his first-read share bump to 27.6%. Sutton will run about 77% of his routes against Cameron Sutton (60.9% catch rate and 103.5 passer rating) and Jerry Jacobs (66.2% catch rate and 107.8 passer rating). Since Week 9, Detroit has allowed the most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Week 15 Positional Value: WR2

Jerry Jeudy: Let’s call it what it is. Jeudy has had a terrible season. He is the WR61 in fantasy points per game with one touchdown this season. Jeudy has had an 18.0% target share with 1.56 YPRR and a 27.5% first-read share. He hasn’t surpassed 60 receiving yards in a game since Week 7. I say all this, but this could be Jeudy’s best week of the season in Week 15. Since Week 9, Detroit has utilized single-high at the sixth-highest rate (63.2%). Against single-high, Jeudy has a 20.4% target share, a 37.3% air-yard share, 2.14 YPRR, and a team-leading 30.9% first-read share. Slot receivers have gashed Detroit. Since Week 9, the Lions have allowed the 12th-most PPR points per target and the eighth-highest passer rating when targeted to opposing slot receivers. Jeudy will run about 63% of his routes against Brian Branch (68.2% catch rate and 101.1 passer rating). Week 15 Positional Value: WR4/5 with WR2/3 upside

Amon-Ra St. Brown: St. Brown is the WR5 in fantasy, ranking ninth in red zone targets, sixth in yards after the catch, seventh in receptions, and eighth in receiving yards. He has been a stud all season. I say that, realizing he is coming off his worst game of the season, only securing three of his nine targets for 21 receiving yards. That was St. Brown’s first game of the season with less than 12.9 PPR points. Just wild. Since Week 9, Denver has utilized single-high at the fourth-highest rate (63.6%). Against single-high, St. Brown has had a 27% target share, a 30.1% air-yard share, 2.55 YPRR, and a 32.4% first-read share. This is another brutal matchup for St. Brown. Since Week 9, Denver has allowed the lowest PPR points per target to opposing slot receivers. Week 15 Positional Value: WR1

Jameson Williams: I can’t count on Williams in fantasy lineups to open the playoffs. Since Week 9, Denver has utilized single-high at the fourth-highest rate (63.6%). Since Week 8 against single-high, he has an 8.8% target share, an 18.8% air-yard share, and only 1.32 YPRR. Williams hasn’t seen more than three targets in a game since Week 7. Week 15 Positional Value: Sit

Tight Ends

Sam LaPorta: Sammy Ballgame all day. Every day. Every week, he climbs closer and closer to the top of the tight-end mountain. Ballgame is the TE3 in fantasy points per game, ranking eighth in deep targets and ninth in red zone targets. He leads all tight ends in touchdowns while also ranking fourth in receptions and receiving yards. Since Week 9, Denver has utilized single-high at the fourth-highest rate (63.6%). Against single-high, he has a 21.3% target share, a 26.0% air-yard share, a team-high 2.75 YPRR, and a 23.2% first-read share. Denver has been helpless against tight ends all season, giving up the second-most fantasy points per game and receiving yards per game. Week 15 Positional Value: Top Three TE

NFL NFL Primers Start/Sit Weekly Advice Jake Browning Nick Mullens Ty Chandler Alexander Mattison Joe Mixon Chase Brown Justin Jefferson Jordan Addison Ja’Marr Chase Tee Higgins Tyler Boyd T.J. Hockenson Mitch Trubisky Gardner Minshew Najee Harris Jaylen Warren Zack Moss Diontae Johnson George Pickens Michael Pittman Keenan Allen Joey Porter Jr. Calvin Ridley DeAndre Hopkins Amari Cooper Marquise Brown Josh Downs Patrick Peterson Pat Freiermuth Russell Wilson Jared Goff Javonte Williams David Montgomery Jahmyr Gibbs Courtland Sutton Cameron Sutton Jerry Jacobs Jerry Jeudy Brian Branch Amon-Ra St. Brown Jameson Williams Sam LaPorta