Derek Brown | Thu, Dec 7th 2023, 8:53am EST

The Primer: Week 14 Edition (2023 Fantasy Football)

We’re in the end game now. The Fantasy Football playoffs beckon. Trade deadlines have come and gone. This is the last week we have any teams on bye. It’s crunch time, and I’m working tirelessly to bring you the best info possible to help set your lineups. Well, let’s not waste time.

Welcome to the Week 14 Primer. Enjoy.

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Fantasy Football Primer

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons

ATL -2, O/U 40.5
Buccaneers vs. Falcons Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

Since Week 9, the Bucs have slowed things down, ranking 16th in neutral pace with the 12th-highest neutral rushing rate.
Atlanta has ranked ninth in neutral pace with the highest neutral rushing rate in the NFL across their last four games.

Quarterbacks

Baker Mayfield: Mayfield has been a QB2 all season that can pop off with low-end QB1 numbers any week. He is the QB19 in fantasy with five QB1 weeks on his resume. The last time he faced Atlanta, he was the QB11 for the week with 275 passing yards, a score, and 32 rushing yards. Mayfield is 19th in passer rating, 16th in CPOE, and 18th in highly accurate throw rate. Atlanta is not a pass-defense that I fear. They have played a ton of league-average quarterbacks this season, which has helped puff up their defensive numbers. Since Week 6, they have been a middle-of-the-road unit, allowing the 14th-highest yards per attempt, the 12th-most passing touchdowns, and the 15th-most passing yards per game. Mayfield should turn in another strong QB2 outing this week. Week 14 Positional Value: QB2

Desmond Ridder: Ridder has not played well since his return to the starting gig. Over his last two starts among 33 qualifying quarterbacks, he is 23rd in yards per attempt, 27th in yards per attempt, 32nd in highly accurate throw rate, and 31st in adjusted completion rate. The last time he tangled with this defense, he completed 76% of his passes with 10.0 yards per attempt to finish as the QB20 for the week. While I don’t have much hope for him in fantasy, the matchup could allow him to complete passes at a decent clip so his receiving weapons can thrive. Since Week 8, the Bucs have allowed the fourth-most passing yards per game, the fifth-highest yards per attempt, and the eighth-highest passer rating. Week 14 Positional Value: QB2

Running Backs

Rachaad White: White is the RB10 in fantasy, with his pass game role and volume doing the heavy lifting for his fantasy value. White is sixth in snap share, ninth in opportunity share, and fourth in weighted opportunities. He has averaged 18.5 touches and 85.8 total yards. The last time he faced this defense, he finished with 19 touches and 99 total yards (65 receiving yards) as the RB12 for the week. Among 58 qualifying backs, he ranks 51st in missed tackles forced per attempt and 52nd in yards after contact per attempt. He continues to be below-average as a tackle breaker, but Tampa Bay doesn’t have a back on this roster talented enough to take his job or eat into his workload. White should continue to chug along as an RB1 this week against an Atlanta run defense that, since Week 8, has the 12th-lowest stuff rate, the 12th-highest missed tackle rate per attempt, and the ninth-highest yards after contact per attempt allowed. Week 14 Positional Value: RB1

Bijan Robinson: Over the last three games, Robinson has played 63-75% of the snaps, averaging 21 touches and 102.7 total yards per game. In those three games, he has handled 80% of the backfield red zone opportunities. Robinson ranks sixth in missed tackles forced per attempt and 27th in yards after contact per attempt. His offensive line has improved some, but still, they remain an average run-blocking unit, ranking 17th in adjusted yards before contact per attempt since Week 9. This week could be the Bijan blow-up game. Since Week 8, Tampa Bay’s run defense has fallen off a cliff with the seventh-lowest stuff rate, eighth-highest missed tackle per attempt rate, and the second-highest zone success rate allowed (Robinson 62.9% zone). Vita Vea is also banged up (toe) and has been listed as questionable, which also improves Robinson’s outlook on the ground. Robinson should see 20-25 touches this week as a locked-in RB1. Week 14 Positional Value: RB1

Tyler Allgeier: Allgeier remains only a handcuff as his role has diminished. He has not played more than 29% of the snaps over the last three weeks, averaging 9.3 touches and 42.6 total yards. Without a red zone role, he’s unplayable in fantasy. Week 14 Positional Value: Handcuff

Wide Receivers

Mike Evans: Evans just continues to pile up monster games like vintage Tom Brady is chucking him the ball weekly. He has three games this season with at least 140 receiving yards. The last time he played against the Falcons, he secured six of his eight targets for 82 receiving yards and a score as the WR7 for the week. Evans is the WR7 in fantasy points per game, ranking second in deep targets and 11th in red zone targets. Evans has a 24.6% target share, a 43.4% air-yard share, 2.84 YPRR, and a 31.8% first-read share. The last time the Bucs played against the Falcons, A.J. Terrell followed Evans on 58.8% of his routes. Evans secured two of his three targets, with Terrell following for 56 receiving yards and a score. This is a matchup Evans can win again. Week 14 Positional Value: WR1

Chris Godwin: Godwin’s disappointing 2023 season continues. He is the WR44 in fantasy points per game with zero double-digit fantasy point outings since Week 8. Godwin has only finished higher than WR26 in weekly fantasy scoring twice this season. Godwin has a 20.4% target share, a 24.4% air-yard share, 1.62 YPRR, and a 25.4% first-read share. The coaching staff continues to talk him up and vow to get him more involved and to “get him going,” but in Week 14, that might just not happen this season. Godwin has only one red zone target over his last four games. Week 14 Positional Value: WR3/4

Drake London: I can’t wait until London has at least league-average quarterback play, tossing him the rock. It will be beautiful. The talent is there, and we see flashes of it when he gets catchable targets and the Falcons are forced to pass. Since Week 2, London has had a 22.3% target share, a 30.1% air-yard share, 1.93 YPRR, and a 28.3% first-read share. Unfortunately for London, he has seen only three red zone targets over his last six games, all of which came in Week 7, which was also the last time that he faced Tampa Bay. Since Week 8, the Bucs have utilized single-high at the eighth-highest rate (61.1%). Since Week 2, against single-high, London leads the team with a 22.8% first-read share and a 26.4% air-yard share. London should have a strong outing this week against a secondary that, since Week 8, has allowed the 10th-most PPR points per target and the second-most receiving touchdowns to perimeter wide receivers. Week 14 Positional Value: WR3

Tight Ends

Cade Otton: Otton has commanded a 12.2% target share and a 12.1% first-read share with 0.95 YPRR. Yes, I know these aren’t amazing numbers. Otton has been a weekly TE2 streaming option that can post TE1 numbers when the matchup is juicy. The last time he faced Atlanta, he secured five of his six targets with 43 receiving yards to finish as the TE12 for the week. Otton has seen his red zone role explode in the last four games with seven red zone targets. Atlanta has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game and the third-most receiving yards per game to tight ends. Otton could post another TE1 stat line this week. Week 14 Positional Value: Borderline TE1

Kyle Pitts: Pitts is the TE17 in fantasy this season, which is so incredibly sad. His talent is being wasted, but there’s nothing we can do to change it. He has surpassed 56 receiving yards only once this season and has seen more than seven targets in a game only three times. Since Week 8, the Bucs have utilized single-high at the eighth-highest rate (61.1%). Against single-high Pitts has a 17.9% target share, a 27.4% air-yard share, 1.75 YPRR, and a 22.2% first-read share. Pitts has the talent to pop off in any week, but good luck diagnosing when that will be. Tampa Bay has allowed the 11th-most fantasy points per game and the eighth-most receiving yards per game to tight ends. Week 14 Positional Value: TE2

Jonnu Smith: The last time these teams met, Smith secured all three of his targets for 27 receiving yards and zero touchdowns. Atlanta’s usage of their receiving options will give you a headache if you stare at their metrics too long. Attempting to figure out what Arthur Smith will throw out there in any game is like trying to predict the weather from the inside of a cave while blindfolded. Smith has seen more than three targets once in his last six games. He’s not a must-hold on your rosters or a strong streaming candidate anymore. Week 14 Positional Value: Droppable

Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears

DET -3, O/U 43
Lions vs. Bears Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

Since Week 11 with Justin Fields back, the Bears have had the slowest neutral pace and the second-highest neutral rushing rate.
Across their last four games, Detroit ranks fourth in neutral pace with the 12th-highest neutral rushing rate.

Quarterbacks

Jared Goff: Goff continues to hover around the QB1 discussion weekly as the QB13 in fantasy points per game. He has five QB1 outings this season. He ranks sixth in yards per attempt, eighth in highly accurate throw rate, and 14th in fantasy points per dropback. Goff faces off against an improving Chicago pass defense. Since Week 8, they have still displayed some dings in the armor with the seventh-most passing touchdowns and fourth-highest adjusted completion rate allowed, but they have also kept passing attacks in check with the fifth-lowest yards per attempt and 11th-lowest passing yards per game given up. Since Week 8, Chicago has operated with the sixth-highest rate of single-high (63.6%). Against single-high, Goff ranks fourth in yards per attempt and eighth in fantasy points per dropback. Goff is a strong start in Week 14. Week 14 Positional Value: QB1

Justin Fields: Since Week 4, in Fields’ full games played he has finished as the QB3, QB1, QB8, and QB24 in weekly fantasy scoring. That QB8 finish was against the Lions where he completed 69.6% of his passes with 7.3 yards per attempt and 104 rushing yards. Since Week 4 among 36 qualifying quarterbacks, on passes that are not screens, Fields ranks sixth in yards per attempt, third in passer rating, fifth in highly accurate throw rate, and second in adjusted completion rate. Since Week 8, the Lions secondary has struggled allowing the sixth-highest yards per attempt, fourth-highest passer rating, and the seventh-highest CPOE. They have also ranked 16th in time to pressure over their last five games, so Fields should have time to operate in the pocket. Week 14 Positional Value: QB1

Running Backs

Jahmyr Gibbs: The Detroit backfield is a fluid situation weekly. Since Montgomery’s return in Week 10, he has played 45-71% of snaps weekly, averaging 13.8 touches and 83.6 total yards. Gibbs continues to break tackles at a rate among the best in the league, ranking ninth in missed tackles forced per attempt and 18th in yards after contact per attempt. With Montgomery back, Gibbs has retained his pass game role with a 59.9% route run rate and 15.3% target share. Detroit will have to move the ball through the air this week, which lends to Gibbs’ skill set. Since Week 8, Chicago has been a very good run defense, allowing the second-fewest rushing yards per game, the fourth-lowest rushing touchdown rate, and the tenth-lowest yards after contact per attempt. The Bears, however, have allowed the third-most receptions per game and the second-highest yards per reception to backs. Week 14 Positional Value: RB1/2

David Montgomery: Montgomery has been the early down hammer since his Week 10 return, only seeing a 22.4% route run rate and 2.9% target share. He has averaged 15.1 touches and 85.1 total yards per game in that span. Montgomery continues to crush would-be tacklers in the open field, ranking fifth in missed tackles forced per attempt and eighth in yards after contact per attempt. This week’s matchup is tough for any back playing that early down role in an offense. Since Week 8, Chicago has been a very good run defense, allowing the second-fewest rushing yards per game, the fourth-lowest rushing touchdown rate, and the tenth-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Montgomery needs to spike at least one touchdown this week to pay off in fantasy. Week 14 Positional Value: RB2

Roschon Johnson: The last time we saw this backfield in action, Johnson was the clear leader, playing 74% of the snaps with 15 touches and 75 total yards. Will that repeat in Week 14? I have no clue. Johnson’s heavy involvement against the Vikings could easily be the fallout of the Bears trying to help Fields against the blitz. Minnesota has led the NFL in blitz rate for most of the season, so running out your best pass-protecting back for a ton of snaps makes sense. Johnson allowed a sack against Minnesota, which is the only sack allowed all season. Among 58 qualifying backs, Johnson ranks 32nd in missed tackles forced per attempt and 33rd in yards after contact per attempt. Johnson will have a tough day on the ground against a Lions’ run defense that, since Week 8, has allowed the ninth-lowest missed tackles per attempt, the third-lowest yards after contact per attempt, and ranks 15th in yards per carry allowed to zone runs (Johnson 59.3% zone). I will not be surprised if Johnson plays a bell-cow role this week, but I also would not be shocked if this becomes a three-way committee and no one from this backfield is playable. Week 14 Positional Value: RB3 / Worrisome flex play

Khalil Herbert: After seeing Herbert’s usage in Week 12, there’s no way anyone can feel comfy about tossing him into a fantasy lineup. Herbert saw his snap share drop to 21% with only eight touches and 38 total yards. This could be related to Minnesota’s love of the blitz and Chicago’s leaning on Johnson as a pass protector, but it also could be the backfield shifting in Johnson’s direction. There’s no way to know which is the truth. The reality is that with this uncertainty surrounding Herbert’s workload and the matchup being terrible for him, Herbert is a sit. Since Week 8, Detroit has allowed the ninth-lowest missed tackles per attempt and the third-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Week 14 Positional Value: Sit

Wide Receivers

Amon-Ra St. Brown: St. Brown is the WR4 in fantasy as he continues to truck along with a stellar season. He’s 10th in red zone targets this season, with seven in his last four games. In his last meeting with this secondary, he secured eight of his 11 targets (four red zone targets) with 77 receiving yards as the WR7 for the week. St. Brown has a 27.9% target share, a 32.9% air-yard share, 2.75 YPRR, and a 34.6% first-read share. He will run about 55% of his routes against Kyler Gordon (73% catch rate and 88.6 passer rating). St. Brown remains a locked-in weekly WR1. Week 14 Positional Value: WR1

Jameson Williams: Williams is a sit this week. He has not had more than three targets in any game since Week 7. He scored last week on the ground, but even that is flukey as that is his only rushing attempt this season. Since Week 8, Chicago has operated with the sixth-highest rate of single-high (63.6%). Since Week 7, against single-high, Williams has had a 10.7% target share, 1.21 YPRR, and an 11.6% first-read share. This looks like another game where Detroit leans on St. Brown and LaPorta. Week 14 Positional Value: Sit

D.J. Moore: Moore is the WR11 in fantasy points per game ranking ninth in deep targets. He dropped 22.6 fantasy points on Detroit in Week 11 to finish as the WR6 in fantasy. He can easily do it again this week. Since Week 8, Detroit has the ninth-highest rate of single-high (61.1%). Moore has a 25.4% target share, a 40.1% air-yard share, 2.88 YPRR, and a 37.2% first-read share against single-high. Among 149 qualifying wide receivers, Moore ranks 21st in fantasy points per route run against single-high. Moore will run about 80% of his routes against Cameron Sutton (61.3% catch rate and 103.6 passer rating) and Jerry Jacobs (66.7% catch rate and 103.4 passer rating). Since Week 8, Detroit has allowed the second-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Week 14 Positional Value: WR1

Tight Ends

Sam LaPorta: Sammy Ballgame continues to reset rookie tight end expectations as the TE3 in fantasy points per game. Ballgame is currently on pace for 122 targets, 91 receptions, 962 receiving yards, and eight receiving touchdowns. Among 38 qualifying tight ends, he ranks sixth in target share (20.0%), fifth in YPRR (2.04), and eighth in first-read share (21.3%). He is 14th in deep targets and ninth in red zone targets among tight ends. Since Week 8, Chicago has operated with the sixth-highest rate of single-high (63.6%). Among 57 qualifying tight ends, he ranks fourth in target share (21.9%), first in YPRR (2.86), and first in fantasy points per route run (0.69) against single-high. Another week for Ballgame to crush. Week 14 Positional Value: TE1

Cole Kmet: Kmet is the TE6 in fantasy, ranking seventh in red zone targets. Among 38 qualifying tight ends, Kmet ranks 11th in target share (17.8%), ninth in YPRR (1.67), and 13th in first-read share (18.0%). Since Week 8, Detroit has had the ninth-highest rate of single-high (61.1%). Against single-high, Kmet has seen his target share drop to 16.6%, his YPRR falls to 1.42, and his first-read share drop to 15.9%. He does rank third in receiving touchdowns against single-high, which has fueled his 0.46 fantasy points per route run against single-high (sixth-best among 57 qualifying tight ends). Detroit has allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game and the third-most receiving touchdowns per game (tied) to tight ends. Week 14 Positional Value: TE1

Indianapolis Colts vs. Cincinnati Bengals

CIN -2, O/U 44
Colts vs. Bengals Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

Over the last two weeks with Jake Browning under center, the Bengals rank fourth in neutral script pace and 10th in neutral passing rate. Wow!
Since Week 6, with Gardner Minshew as Indy’s starter, the Colts have ranked first in neutral pace and 17th in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Gardner Minshew: Minshew has been a solid QB2 this season with some QB1 upside if the matchup is right. Minshew has two QB1 weeks this season and has been the QB13 or higher in each of his last two games (QB13, QB12). He has performed as a QB2 in most metrics, ranking 25th in yards per attempt, 24th in adjusted completion rate, and 28th in fantasy points per dropback. The matchup this week could help to elevate mustache mania into the borderline QB1 conversation. Since Week 8, the Bengals have dissolved into a bottom-three pass defense, allowing the highest yards per attempt, the sixth-highest passer rating, and the adjusted completion rate. Minshew will be nestled inside of my top 15 quarterbacks in ranks this week. Week 14 Positional Value: Borderline QB1

Jake Browning: Wow! Just wow. Browning balled out last week as the QB4 in fantasy. After that performance, among 47 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks fourth in yards per attempt, second in CPOE, fourth in highly accurate throw rate, and seventh in fantasy points per dropback. Indy has become more pliable against the pass over the last few weeks. Since Week 8, they have allowed the 10th-highest yards per attempt, the eighth-highest CPOE, and the seventh-highest adjusted completion rate. Browning should have time to carve up the secondary against a team that, over the same span, has only ranked 14th in pressure rate. Last week, Browning carved up the Jaguars, who, since Week 8, are third in pressure rate. Week 14 Positional Value: QB2 with QB1 upside

Running Backs

Zack Moss: In his first game back in the starter’s chair, Moss received the type of workload that we anticipated with 94% of the snaps played, 21 touches, and 57 total yards. The only problem is that he didn’t do much with it. Moss should bounce back this week. Among 58 qualifying backs, Moss ranks 21st in missed tackles forced per attempt and 13th in yards after contact per attempt. The Bengals have had a putrid run defense this season. Since Week 8, they have allowed the ninth-highest explosive run rate, the seventh-most missed tackles per attempt, and the seventh-highest yards per carry to zone runs (Moss 79.4% zone). Cincinnati has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points this season via rushing. Week 14 Positional Value: RB1

Joe Mixon: Mixon is the RB21 in fantasy points per game. He ranks first in opportunity share, fifth in weighted opportunities, and fourth in red zone touches. Over the last three weeks he has played 64-71% of the snaps averaging 18.6 touches and 92.3 total yards. Among 58 qualifying backs, Mixon ranks 25th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 40th in yards after contact per attempt. Mixon should post another stellar stat line this week against a swiss cheese Indy run defense. Since Week 8, Indy has had the second-lowest stuff rate while also allowing the 11th-highest yards after contact per attempt, the fourth-highest yards per carry to gap runs (5.24), and the highest success rate to gap runs. 55.6% of Mixon’s runs have come on gap plays. Week 14 Positional Value: RB1/2

Wide Receivers

Michael Pittman: In the five games that Pittman and Josh Downs have been full-time players with Minshew under center, Pittman has handled a 28.7% target share, a 32.5% air-yard share, and a 35% first-read share with 2.11 YPRR. Pittman is the WR12 in fantasy points per game, ranking third in red zone targets. He has garnered nine red zone looks over his last six games. Over their last four games, Cincinnati has the 11th-highest single-high rate (59.9%). In the last five games with Downs as a full-go, Pittman has a 35.1% target share, a 40.6% air-yard share, 2.76 YPRR, and a 42% first read share against single-high. Pittman will run about 71% of his routes against D.J. Turner (55.8% catch rate and 91.4 passer rating) and Chidobe Awuzie (67.6% catch rate and 108.2 passer rating). Pittman is set up for another high-volume game. He has at least 12 targets in five of his last seven games. Week 14 Positional Value: WR1

Josh Downs: Downs has had some encouraging moments this season, with five weeks as a WR3 or higher. Across his last five games as a full-time player, Downs has had a 19.8% target share, 1.69 YPRR, and a 22.4% first-read share. Over their last four games, Cincinnati has the 11th-highest single-high rate (59.9%). In his last five games in his usual role with Minshew under center, Downs has had a 15.8% target share, 1.16 YPRR, and a 17.3% first-read share against single-high. Pittman has been the clear leader against single-high. Downs will run about 81% of his routes against Mike Hilton (69.6% catch rates and 82.3 passer rating). He should have a productive week against a secondary that, since Week 8, has allowed the second-most PPR points per target to slot receivers. Week 14 Positional Value: WR3/4

Ja’Marr Chase: In Browning’s two starts, Chase has had a 27.7% target share, a 47.5% air-yard share, 3.48 YPRR, and a 31.9% first-read share. Chase is the WR8 in fantasy points per game, ranking 21st in deep targets and third in red zone targets among wide receivers. With Browning playing well, Chase has returned to the WR1 conversation. Since Week 8, Indy has allowed the ninth-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Week 14 Positional Value: WR1

Tee Higgins: Last week was Higgins’ first game with Browning under center. He played 78% of the snaps with a 64.3% route run rate, a 7.7% target share, a 24.8% air-yard share, and an 11.1% first read share. Higgins was the distant third option in the passing offense last week. With the matchup looking soft this week, Higgins is worth flex consideration, but he’s not the locked-in WR2 option that we have come to know and love over the last few seasons. Since Week 8, Indy has allowed the ninth-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Week 14 Positional Value: WR4

Tyler Boyd: Over the last two weeks with Browning, Boyd has had a 16.9% target share (4.2 aDOT) with 1.3 YPRR and a 17.0% first-read share. He has averaged 30 receiving yards with zero end-zone targets since Week 12. Indy has been tough against slot receivers, allowing the third-fewest PPR points per target. Boyd will run about 86% of his routes against Kenny Moore (75.8% catch rate and 71.6 passer rating). Kenny Moore hasn’t allowed a receiving touchdown in his coverage this season. There’s no reason that I feel compelled to get Boyd in any lineups this week. Sit him. Week 14 Positional Value: Sit

Tight Ends

*There are no fantasy viable tight ends in this game*

NFL

MLB

NBA

NHL

The Primer: Week 14 Edition (2023 Fantasy Football)

Fantasy Football Primer

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons

Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears

Indianapolis Colts vs. Cincinnati Bengals

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