The Primer: Week 14 Edition (2023 Fantasy Football)

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys

• DAL -3.5, O/U 52
• Eagles vs. Cowboys Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Since Week 9, the Cowboys have ranked fourth in neutral pace and sixth in neutral passing rate.
• Over their last four games, Philly has been 20th in neutral pace with the seventh-highest neutral rushing rate.

Quarterbacks

Jalen Hurts: Hurts is the QB2 in fantasy as he continues to pile up rushing production. Hurts ranks first in red zone carries per game, second in rushing yards, and first in rushing touchdowns. Contrary to circulating belief, Hurts is a strong passer who can get through progressions. Among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, Hurts ranks 33rd in first-read rate, which means he is regularly getting to his second and third reads in the offense instead of locking on his first read. He is eighth in adjusted completion rate, ninth in yards per attempt, and fourth in highly accurate throw rate. The last time he faced this Dallas secondary, Hurts had 9.0 yards per attempt while completing 73.9% of his passes. He was the QB3 in fantasy for the week. Week 14 Positional Value: QB1

Dak Prescott: Since Week 6, among 33 qualifying quarterbacks, Prescott has ranked third in yards per attempt, first in passing touchdowns, first in passer rating, and first in fantasy points per dropback. This game should not disappoint. Philly’s secondary has been allowing heaping amounts of passing production. Since Week 8, Philly has given up the eighth-highest yards per attempt, the second-most passing touchdowns, and the third-highest passer rating. Week 14 Positional Value: QB1

Running Backs

D’Andre Swift: Swift is the RB19 in fantasy points per game. He ranks 14th in snap share, 13th in opportunity share, eighth in carries, and 12th in red zone touches. Since Week 2, he has averaged 18.3 touches and 89.8 total yards. Swift ranks 15th in explosive run rate and 39th in yards after contact per attempt. In his last matchup with this defense, he had 74 total yards and was the RB25 for the week. Dallas has been a tough draw for backs since Week 8, allowing the fifth-lowest explosive run rate while also ranking 19th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 21st in yards after contact per attempt. Week 14 Positional Value: RB2

Tony Pollard: Since Week 8, Pollard has averaged 16.8 touches and 73.2 total yards. Over his last six games, his explosiveness has returned as he has ranked fourth in explosive run rate and 12th in yards after contact per attempt. Pollard was the RB26 in weekly scoring the last time he faced this defense, as he finished with 63 total yards and zero touchdowns. Philly has also dissolved into a neutral matchup for Pollard. Since Week 8, the Eagles have allowed the fourth-highest explosive run rate while ranking 20th in missed tackles allowed per attempt and 16th in yards after contact per attempt. Week 14 Positional Value: RB2

Wide Receivers

A.J. Brown: Brown is the WR5 in fantasy points per game ranking seventh in targets, sixth in target share, and fifth in air-yard share among wideouts. He is fourth in deep targets. In Week 9 against Dallas, he secured seven of his nine targets for 66 receiving yards and a score to finish as the WR7 for the week. Brown is a weekly must-start WR1 no matter the matchup. Week 14 Positional Value: WR1

DeVonta Smith: Smith has been rocking along, raising his season-long numbers. He is now the WR16 in fantasy points per game while ranking 21st in deep targets. His biggest issue is touchdown equity, with only four red zone targets. He has only two red zone targets over his last seven games and four all season. With Goedert probably coming back this week, Smith falls back into the lower end of WR2 territory. Week 14 Positional Value: WR2

CeeDee Lamb: Lamb has been untouchable since Week 6. Over his last seven games, he ranks third in target share (31.6%), 14th in air-yard share (40.5%), and fifth in first read share (37.6%). Since Week 6, he has had a whopping 12 red zone targets. All I can say is good luck to Darius Slay and James Bradberry. Week 14 Positional Value: WR1

Brandin Cooks: Since Week 6, Cooks has had a 12.4% target share, a 16.8% air-yard share, 1.87 YPRR, and a 12.7% first-read share. Cooks has finished as a WR3 or higher in five of his last seven games. He probably makes that six of his last eight games this week. Since Week 8, Philly has allowed the eighth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Week 14 Positional Value: WR3

Tight Ends

Dallas Goedert: Goedert practiced in full all week. He has not been listed with an injury designation. He should be a full go this week. In Weeks 1-8, among 44 qualifying tight ends, Goedert ranked 10th in target share (17.0%), 20th in YPRR (1.38), sixth in first-read share (21.7%), and 20th in fantasy points per route run. Goedert could see an uptick in usage this week, with Hurts looking to avoid Dallas’s tough outside corners. Dallas has allowed the 12th-fewest fantasy points per game and receiving yards per game to tight ends. Week 14 Positional Value: TE1

Jake Ferguson: Ferguson is the TE7 in fantasy, ranking sixth in deep target and first in red zone targets. He has seen a 15.5% target share with the 10th-most targets among tight ends. Philly has allowed the 11th-most fantasy points per game and the third-most receiving touchdowns per game (tied) to tight ends. Week 14 Positional Value: TE1

NE vs. PIT | TB vs. ATL | DET vs. CHI | IND vs. CIN | JAC vs. CLE | CAR vs. NO | HOU vs. NYJ | LAR vs. BAL | MIN vs. LV | SEA vs. SF | BUF vs. KC | DEN vs. LAC | PHI vs. DAL | TEN vs. MIA | GB vs. NYG

Tennessee Titans vs. Miami Dolphins

• MIA -13, O/U 46.5
• Titans vs. Dolphins Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Since Week 9, Tennessee has had the seventh-slowest neutral pace and the ninth-highest neutral rushing rate.
• Across their last four games, Miami has remained a slow-and-throw team with the ninth-slowest neutral pace and the ninth-highest neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Will Levis: Do not play Levis. Since Week 9, he has thrown for zero passing touchdowns in three of five games and has only once crested 250 passing yards. He hasn’t finished with more than 13 fantasy points since Atlanta laid down in Week 8. Since Week 8, Miami has allowed the third-fewest yards per attempt, the lowest passer rating, and the eighth-lowest adjusted completion rate. Week 14 Positional Value: Sit

Tua Tagovailoa: Tagovailoa is the QB12 in fantasy points per game, ranking second in yards per attempt, third in passing yards, and seventh in red zone passing attempts. Tagovailoa has five games this season with at least 300 passing yards and multiple passing touchdowns. Fire up Tagovailoa this week against a burnable Titans secondary. Since Week 8, they have allowed the ninth-highest CPOE, passer rating, and yards per attempt. Week 14 Positional Value: QB1

Running Backs

Derrick Henry: Henry avoided concussion protocol. He should be good to go this week. Henry is the RB11 in fantasy points per game, ranking 11th in opportunity share and third in carries. Over the last two weeks, the team has recommitted to feeding Henry volume as he has averaged 20.5 touches and 98 total yards. Henry keeps trucking along, ranking 10th in explosive run rate, 17th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 12th in yards after contact per attempt. Henry should be able to take advantage of a neutral matchup against the Dolphins. Since Week 8, Miami has ranked 16th in stuff rate, seventh in yards after contact per attempt, and 18th in explosive run rate allowed. Week 14 Positional Value: RB1/2

Tyjae Spears: With Henry avoiding concussion protocol, Spears remains only a handcuff. He continues to be one of the most explosive runners in the NFL, but with Henry active, he’ll only see his handful of touches while he soaks up empty calorie snaps. Week 14 Positional Value: Handcuff

De’Von Achane: Achane returned last week to reclaim his spot as the lead back for Miami. He played 61% of the snaps, handling 20 touches and churning out 103 total yards. Among 58 qualifying backs, Achane ranks top-two in explosive run rate, missed tackles forced per attempt, and yards after contact per attempt. Achane should have no problems steamrolling a neutral matchup against the Titans. Since Week 8, Tennessee has allowed the 14th-highest explosive run rate and the 13th-highest yards after contact per attempt. Week 14 Positional Value: RB1/2

Raheem Mostert: Mostert’s workload was cut back last week, with Achane resuming his lead-back duties. Mostert played 38% of the snaps with 12 touches and 51 total yards. Mostert ranks sixth in yards after contact per attempt and seventh in explosive run rate. He will spell Achane and factor in for 12-15 touches per game, so It’s not like he drops to a total zero in fantasy. He will be a low-end RB2/RB3 though. That ranking will vary depending on if he gets into the end zone or not. Since Week 8, Tennessee has allowed the 14th-highest explosive run rate and the 13th-highest yards after contact per attempt. Week 14 Positional Value: RB2/3

Wide Receivers

DeAndre Hopkins: Since Week 9, Hopkins has had a 26.3% target share, a 44.5% air-yard share, 1.99 YPRR, and a 32.8% first-read share, which has sadly only amounted to 54 receiving yards per game. Hopkins has finished as a WR3 or higher in three of his last five games while seeing only one red zone target. He has a brutal matchup this week running routes against Jalen Ramsey (36.4% catch rate and 7.4 passer rating) and Xavien Howard (67.95 catch rate and 90.8 passer rating). Since Week 8, Miami has allowed the sixth-lowest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Week 14 Positional Value: WR3/4

Tyreek Hill: Do you need any real analysis to start Hill? I didn’t think so. He is THE WR1 in fantasy, ranking second in targets, first in target share, third in deep targets, and second in red zone targets. Week 14 Positional Value THE WR1

Jaylen Waddle: Waddle is the WR23 in fantasy points per game after he has strung together some strong games recently. Waddle has a 22.0% target share, a 29.5% air-yard share, 2.72 YPRR, and a 24.5% first-read share. Since Week 8, the Titans have allowed the fourth-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Week 14 Positional Value: WR2

Tight Ends

*There are no fantasy viable tight ends in this game.*

NE vs. PIT | TB vs. ATL | DET vs. CHI | IND vs. CIN | JAC vs. CLE | CAR vs. NO | HOU vs. NYJ | LAR vs. BAL | MIN vs. LV | SEA vs. SF | BUF vs. KC | DEN vs. LAC | PHI vs. DAL | TEN vs. MIA | GB vs. NYG

Green Bay Packers vs. New York Giants

• GB -6.5, O/U 36.5
• Packers vs. Giants Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Since Week 9, Green Bay has the 11th-slowest neutral pace while also ranking 15th in neutral passing rate.
• In the last three games with Tommy DeVito at the helm, the Giants have the 13th-slowest neutral pace while passing at the fifth-highest rate.

Quarterbacks

Jordan Love: Love has been playing fantastic football and is now the QB9 in fantasy. In his last four games, he has finished as the QB12, QB9, QB5, and QB7 in weekly scoring. Since Week 10, among 34 qualifying quarterbacks, he has ranked 11th in yards per attempt, third in passing touchdowns, and tenth in adjusted completion rate. Love should have no problems dispatching the Giants who since Week 9 have allowed the 11th-highest yards per attempt, the eighth-most passing yards per game, and the 14th-highest adjusted completion rate. Week 14 Positional Value: QB1

Tommy DeVito: Outside of demolishing the Commanders, DeVito has finished as the QB18 and QB25 in weekly fantasy scoring. Among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 29th in yards per attempt, 32nd in CPOE, and 16th in highly accurate throw rate. DeVito is in play if you are extremely desperate in a deep Superflex league, but in any 1QB format, he isn’t worth the roster spot. Week 14 Positional Value: Sit

Running Backs

Aaron Jones: Jones hasn’t played since Week 11. He has been limited in practice this week and has been listed as questionable. If he plays, it isn’t easy to trust him in any lineup. In his first two games back from injury earlier this season, he averaged 44% of the snaps played with 11 touches and 51.5 total yards per game. He hasn’t recorded an explosive run this season and has only 2.35 yards after contact per attempt. If you are in a pinch, there are worse flex plays that you can plug in, but I don’t have high hopes for Jones this week. Since Week 8, the Giants have allowed the 11th-highest missed tackles per attempt, the eighth-highest explosive run rate, and the fourth-highest yards after contact per attempt. Week 14 Positional Value: Mid-range flex play

A.J. Dillon: Dillon is the RB40 in fantasy. He has been gifted a litany of plus matchups this season that he has done nothing against. Last week, against the run funnel that is the Chiefs, Dillon could only manage 9.7 fantasy points. Over the last two weeks, he has averaged 57% of the snaps played, 18 touches, and 84 total yards. Among 58 qualifying backs, he ranks 46th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 35th in yards after contact per attempt. In theory, he should destroy the Giants’ run defense, but we shall see. Since Week 8, the Giants have allowed the 11th-highest missed tackles per attempt, the eighth-highest explosive run rate, and the fourth-highest yards after contact per attempt. Week 14 Positional Value: RB3

Saquon Barkley: Barkley is the RB9 in fantasy points per game. He ranks third in snap share and opportunity share while also sitting eighth in weighted opportunities. Since Week 6, he has averaged 22.1 touches and 101.4 total yards. Barkley ranks 24th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 21st in yards after contact per attempt. Barkley should run wild this week. Since Week 7, the Packers have allowed the seventh-highest explosive run rate, the ninth-most missed tackles allowed per attempt, and the fifth-highest yards after contact per attempt. Week 14 Positional Value: RB1

Wide Receivers

Christian Watson: Watson has not practiced this week. He won’t be suiting up this week.

Dontayvion Wicks: Wicks is a deep league flex wild card. Wicks could step into the Watson role this week as the team’s leading answer against single-high. This season, he has ranked second behind only Jayden Reed (minimum 30 routes against single-high) with a 22% target per route run rate while also leading the team with a 2.22 YPRR against single-high. Since Week 8, New York has also utilized man coverage at the second-highest rate (41.4%). Among the Packers wide receivers with at least 30 routes run against man coverage, Wicks ranks second on the team with a 29% target per route run rate and 1.59 YPRR against man coverage. Plug in Wicks if you’re in a pinch. Week 14 Positional Value: Strong deep league flex with WR3/4 upside

Romeo Doubs: Doubs is the WR36 in fantasy ranking 11th in red zone targets. Since Week 8, the Giants have utilized single-high at the tenth-highest rate (60.6%). Since Week 5, against single-high, Doubs has only seen an 11.6% target share, 19.2% air-yard share, and a 13% first-read share with 0.62 YPRR against single-high. None of these metrics instill any hope for Doubs to blow it out this week. There are other matchup-streaming wide receivers with better setups this week that can outproduce Doubs. Week 14 Positional Value: Sit

Jayden Reed: Reed has risen to the WR37 in fantasy points per game. He ranks 24th in deep targets and 16th in red zone targets. He has finished as a WR3 or better in 58.3% of his games this season. Since Week 8, the Giants have utilized single-high at the tenth-highest rate (60.6%). Since Week 5, against single-high, Reed has a 14.8% target share, a 14.3% air-yard share, 1.82 YPRR, and an 18.2% first-read share. New York ranks 15th in receiving yards allowed to slot receivers since Week 6. Week 14 Positional Value: Middling flex play

Tight Ends

Tucker Kraft: Over the last two weeks, Kraft has played at least 95% of the snaps with a 69.4% route run rate, an 11.8% target share, and a 12.5% first-read share. Kraft is just another TE2 to gloss over this week. New York has been stout against the position, allowing the third-fewest fantasy points per game and the seventh-fewest receiving yards per game. Week 14 Positional Value: TE2 / Sit

NE vs. PIT | TB vs. ATL | DET vs. CHI | IND vs. CIN | JAC vs. CLE | CAR vs. NO | HOU vs. NYJ | LAR vs. BAL | MIN vs. LV | SEA vs. SF | BUF vs. KC | DEN vs. LAC | PHI vs. DAL | TEN vs. MIA | GB vs. NYG

New England Patriots vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

• PIT -6, O/U 30
• Patriots vs. Steelers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Since Week 8, the Patriots have been 17th in neutral pace with the 11th-highest neutral rushing rate.
• In their last two games, Pittsburgh has had the third-slowest neutral pace while sporting the fourth-highest neutral rushing rate.

Quarterbacks

NE QBs: Last week, Bailey Zappe earned the start for New England. The results for the Patriots passing attack predictably didn’t change at all. Zappe finished with 141 scoreless passing yards with 5.6 yards per attempt. I have zero confidence in any Patriots quarterback to post a usable fantasy stat line at this point in the season, much less to finish the game. Don’t play any New England quarterback.

Mitch Trubisky: Trubisky has now attempted 49 passes this season, and the results haven’t been pretty. He has completed 59.1% of his passes with 5.5 yards per attempt and a 71.2 passer rating. Among 47 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 43rd in yards per attempt, 42nd in passer rating, 33rd in catchable target rate, and second in turnover-worthy throw rate. Trubisky’s matchup isn’t daunting this week against a Patriots pass defense that, since Week 8, has ranked 16th in yards per attempt, 18th in passer rating, and has allowed the ninth-highest adjusted completion rate. Pittsburgh won’t allow Trubisky to air it out, but he could enjoy an efficiency spike this week, which would be nice for the Steelers’ new game manager. Week 14 Positional Value: Low-end QB2

Running Backs

Ezekiel Elliott: Last week Elliott played 69% of the snaps finishing with 21 touches and 92 total yards. He will be New England’s unquestioned bell cow this week. After Rhamondre Stevenson left due to injury, Elliott only came off the field for three snaps. Elliott’s only appeal is volume because his tires are bald. Among 58 qualifying backs, Elliott ranks 54th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 50th in yards after contact per attempt. Pittsburgh has massively improved as a run defense as the season has moved along. Since Week 8, they have had the eighth-best stuff rate while also allowing the 12th-lowest rushing touchdown rate and the 10th-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Week 14 Positional Value: Volume-based RB2/3

Weeks 12 & 13

Najee Harris: Harris remains the lead back in this offense. Over the last two weeks, Harris has more rushing attempts, routes run, and red zone opportunities (eight vs. four) than Jaylen Warren. Harris ranks 28th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 25th in yards after contact per attempt. Harris is a good bet for 15-17 touches, but don’t expect him to do much with them this week. New England has been a run-stopping brick wall all season. Since Week 8, they have the 11th-lowest rushing touchdown rate and the lowest yards after contact per attempt allowed while also proudly sporting the highest stuff rate. Week 14 Positional Value: RB3

Jaylen Warren: Over the last two games, Warren has fallen back behind Harris in the running back rotation. He has averaged only 13 touches and 59.5 total yards. The only category that he has bested Harris in is targets. Harris has seen more rushing attempts, routes, and red zone opportunities. Warren remains one of the most explosive backs in the league with the ball in his hands. He ranks first in missed tackles forced per attempt and third in yards after contact per attempt behind only DeVon Achane and Jaleel McLaughlin. Warren will have tough sledding this week. Since Week 8, New England has the 11th-lowest rushing touchdown rate and the lowest yards after contact per attempt allowed while also proudly sporting the highest stuff rate. Warren is a middling flex play this week. Week 14 Positional Value: RB3

Wide Receivers

Demario Douglas: Douglas has been ruled out. 

Diontae Johnson: Since his Week 7 return, Johnson has had a 25.8% target share, a 43.5% air-yard share, 1.80 yards per route run (YPRR), and a 32% first-read share. Over the last seven games, he leads the team with five end-zone targets. Since Week 8, the Patriots have still led the NFL in man coverage rate (43.7%). Since Week 7, Johnson has led the team with a 28.6% target share, a 50.6% air-yard share, and a 31.4% first read share against man coverage. Johnson will run about 80% of his routes against Jonatahn Jones (60.5% catch rate and 93.8 passer rating) and J.C. Jackson (55.2% catch rate and 96.8 passer rating). Since Week 7, New England has allowed the seventh-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Week 14 Positional Value: WR3

George Pickens: Since Johnson’s return in Week 7, Pickens has taken a step back with an 18.2% target share, a 35.9% air-yard share, 1.72 YPRR, and a 22.0% first-read share. Pickens could lead the team in receiving output this week, though. While his numbers have sagged with Johnson back in the lineup overall, his usage against man coverage has remained strong. Over the last seven games against man, Pickens has had a 26.2% target share, a 45.0% air-yard share, 3.53, and a 28.6% first-read share. Pickens will run about 85% of his routes against Jonatahn Jones (60.5% catch rate and 93.8 passer rating) and J.C. Jackson (55.2% catch rate and 96.8 passer rating). Since Week 7, New England has allowed the seventh-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Week 14 Positional Value: WR3

Tight Ends

Pat Freiermuth: Since his return to the fold, Freiermuth has had a 54% route run rate, an 18.2% target share, 2.89 YPRR, and an 18.2% first-read share. Most of those numbers are pumped up by his huge Week 12 performance. In the other two games since he came back, he hasn’t seen more than five targets or finished with more than 30 receiving yards. New England has been tough against tight ends this season, allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game and only one touchdown this season. Week 14 Positional Value: TE2

NE vs. PIT | TB vs. ATL | DET vs. CHI | IND vs. CIN | JAC vs. CLE | CAR vs. NO | HOU vs. NYJ | LAR vs. BAL | MIN vs. LV | SEA vs. SF | BUF vs. KC | DEN vs. LAC | PHI vs. DAL | TEN vs. MIA | GB vs. NYG

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All data utilized in this article is courtesy of Fantasy Points Data, PFF, FTN, 4for4, Rotoviz, RBdsm.com, The Edge from the 33rd Team, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.