Every week, I’ll be writing a comprehensive primer on every NFL matchup and all of the relevant players, matchups, pace and playcalling notes, and injuries. It covers everything you need to know when setting your lineups. But since that article is massive and requires a full pot of coffee, we’re also going to offer these more focused matchup overviews to help you prepare for Thursday Night Football: Saints vs. Rams.
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Thursday Night Football Primer & Start/Sit Advice
New Orleans Saints vs. Los Angeles Rams
- LAR -4, O/U 44.5
- Saints vs. Rams Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Pace and playcalling notes
- Since Week 9, the Saints have slowed the operation down, ranking as the fifth-slowest offense in close games while sitting at 16th in passing rate.
- Across their last five games, the Rams rank 15th in neutral pace and 24th in neural passing rate.
Quarterbacks
Derek Carr: Last week was Carr’s first QB1 performance (QB6) since Week 9. That game did nothing to increase my trust level in Carr. If anything, it was more of an indictment of the Giants’ pass defense. Carr ranks 22nd in yards per attempt, 33rd in fantasy points per dropback, and 23rd in highly accurate throw rate. He has descended into the lower levels of QB2 land as the season has progressed, and there’s no reason to expect anything different this week. Since Week 10, the Rams have continued to defy the odds as a strong pass defense, giving up the sixth-lowest yards per attempt, the 10th-lowest passer rating, and the eighth-lowest CPOE. Week 16 Positional Value: QB2
Matthew Stafford: Stafford has been crushing it since his return as the QB7 in fantasy points per game, with at least 18.5 fantasy points in each of his last four games. Since Week 11, he is ninth in passing yards per game, fifth in passer rating, and second in passing touchdowns. His accuracy metrics have been strong if we take out his first game back in action. Since Week 12, he ranks 10th in CPOE and highly accurate throw rate. While the Saints have been a tough team to figure out in some weeks, their pass defense has remained strong. Since Week 10, they have given up the ninth-lowest yards per attempt, the seventh-lowest passer rating, and the fifth-lowest CPOE. Don’t discount that Stafford could still carve up this defense, though. He’ll have plenty of time to find open receivers against a Saints’ pass rush that, over their last five games, ranks seventh-lowest in time to pressure. Week 16 Positional Value: Borderline QB1
Running Backs
Alvin Kamara: Kamara has been the model of consistency this season as the RB3 in fantasy points per game. He hasn’t finished lower than RB19 in any game this season, and only twice has he not been RB13 or better in weekly scoring. Since Week 12, Kamara has averaged 18.8 touches and 95.8 total yards. Kamara is seventh in opportunity share, 11th in fantasy points per opportunity, first in targets, and tenth in red zone touches. Kamara has begun to show some of his prime burst over the last few weeks. Since Week 9, among 62 qualifying backs, he ranks 26th in explosive run rate and 22nd in missed tackles forced per attempt. Kamara is a pure volume play this week because the efficiency likely won’t be there against a Rams’ run defense that has been a brick wall all year. Since Week 10, they have allowed the sixth-fewest rushing yards per game, the second-lowest rushing touchdown rate, and the fourth-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Week 16 Positional Value: RB1
Kyren Williams: Williams has been a completely different player than in 2022. He is the RB2 in fantasy this season, ranking first in snap share, fifth in opportunity share and fourth in red zone touches. He has averaged 26.6 touches and 146.3 total yards. Among 61 qualifying backs, Williams is 25th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 18th in yards after contact per attempt. Williams could have another strong day in Week 16 as the volume is never in question, but his matchup with the Saints is more problematic than it might first appear. Since Week 10, New Orleans has allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per game and the seventh-highest yards before contact per attempt, but their splits against zone and gap runs have been massive. Williams has seen 64% of his runs on gap plays this season. New Orleans has allowed the fourth-highest yards per carry to zone runs since Week 10, but they have shut down gap runs to the tune of the third-lowest yards per carry allowed to gap runs (2.58) over that span. Week 16 Positional Value: RB1
Wide Receivers
Chris Olave: Olave is the WR22 in fantasy points per game, ranking first among wide receivers in deep targets while seeing four red zone looks over his last five games played. Olave has a 24.2% target share, a 41.4% air-yard share, 2.13 YPRR, and a 31.5% first-read share. He will run about 58% of his routes against Ahkello Witherspoon (43.9% catch rate and 60.2 passer rating) and Derion Kendricks (63.1% catch rate and 105.0 passer rating). Since Week 9, the Rams have allowed the 14th-lowest PPR points per target and passer rating when targeted to perimeter wide receivers. Week 16 Positional Value: WR2
Rashid Shaheed: With Olave out last week, Shaheed had a golden opportunity to step up as the lead target for the Saints passing attack, but it didn’t happen. He is not a high-end target earner, and it showed with a 13.8% target share and a 15.0% first-read share. Overall, he has a 13.1% target share, a 22.3% air-yard share, and 1.72 YPRR. This week, he’s just a low-end flex play in a tough matchup. Since Week 9, the Rams have allowed the 14th-lowest PPR points per target and passer rating when targeted to perimeter wide receivers. Week 16 Positional Value: WR4/5
Cooper Kupp: Since Week 12, with a healthy Stafford under center and Kupp closer to 100% health, he has had a 21.5% target share, an 18.2% air-yard share, 2.11 YPRR, and a 25% first-read share. If we zoom in even further, Kupp has taken back over as the team’s leading receiver. Since Week 14, Kupp has had a 24.3% target share (Puka Nacua 23.0%) and a 28.8% first-read share (Nacua 23.1%). Kupp will run about 66% of his routes against Alontae Taylor (66.7% catch rate and 98.6 passer rating). Since Week 9, the Saints have allowed the eighth-fewest PPR points per target to slot receivers. Despite the tough matchup, Kupp has regained his weekly WR1 throne. Week 16 Positional Value: WR1
Puka Nacua: Nacua is the WR13 in fantasy points per game, ranking 10th in receptions, sixth in receiving yards, and seventh in yards after the catch. Since Week 12, with the healthy duo of Stafford and Kupp in the huddle, Nacua has seen a 22.2% target share, a 29.6% air-yard share with 2.22 YPRR, and a 24.0% first-read share. Over the last two games, the target share and first-read share have tilted more in Kupp’s favor, with Nacua garnering a 23.0% target share (Kupp 24.3%) and a 23.1% first-read share (Kupp 28.8%). Nacua will run about 78% of his routes against Isaac Yiadom (42.4% catch rate and 63.2 passer rating) and Paulson Adebo (56.3% catch rate and 54.6 passer rating). Week 16 Positional Value: WR2
Tight Ends
Taysom Hill: Hill only played 19% of the snaps last week in his first game back. He’s not fully healthy, and it showed with his playing time. He only had two touches and five total yards while also chipping in a passing attempt. There’s no way I can trust him in the fantasy playoffs this week. Week 16 Positional Value: Sit
Tyler Higbee: Since Week 12, in his three games played, Higbee has had a 13.6% target share, 1.59 YPRR, and a 13.3% first read share. Higbee’s usage has been middling this season. The lifeblood of fantasy production for tight ends is touchdown equity, and Higbee hasn’t had much, with only two red zone targets over the last seven games. Despite that, Higbee is an interesting streaming option this week. The Saints have bled out production to tight ends this season. New Orleans has allowed the 12th-most fantasy points per game and the eighth-highest yards per reception to tight ends. Week 16 Positional Value: TE2 with TE1 upside this week
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*All data utilized in this article is courtesy of Fantasy Points Data, PFF, ESPN analytics, The Edge from the 33rd Team, FTN, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*