Every week, I’ll be writing a comprehensive primer on every NFL matchup and all of the relevant players, matchups, pace and playcalling notes, and injuries. It covers everything you need to know when setting your lineups. But since that article is massive and requires a full pot of coffee, we’re also going to offer these more focused matchup overviews to help you prepare for Thursday Night Football: Patriots vs. Steelers.
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Thursday Night Football Primer & Start/Sit Advice
New England Patriots vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
- PIT -6, O/U 30
- Patriots vs. Steelers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Pace and playcalling notes
- Since Week 8, the Patriots have been 17th in neutral pace with the 11th-highest neutral rushing rate.
- In their last two games, Pittsburgh has had the third-slowest neutral pace while sporting the fourth-highest neutral rushing rate.
Quarterbacks
NE QBs: Last week, Bailey Zappe earned the start for New England. The results for the Patriots passing attack predictably didn’t change at all. Zappe finished with 141 scoreless passing yards with 5.6 yards per attempt. I have zero confidence in any Patriots quarterback to post a usable fantasy stat line at this point in the season, much less to finish the game. Don’t play any New England quarterback.
Mitch Trubisky: Trubisky has now attempted 49 passes this season, and the results haven’t been pretty. He has completed 59.1% of his passes with 5.5 yards per attempt and a 71.2 passer rating. Among 47 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 43rd in yards per attempt, 42nd in passer rating, 33rd in catchable target rate, and second in turnover-worthy throw rate. Trubisky’s matchup isn’t daunting this week against a Patriots pass defense that, since Week 8, has ranked 16th in yards per attempt, 18th in passer rating, and has allowed the ninth-highest adjusted completion rate. Pittsburgh won’t allow Trubisky to air it out, but he could enjoy an efficiency spike this week, which would be nice for the Steelers’ new game manager. Week 14 Positional Value: Low-end QB2
Running Backs
Ezekiel Elliott: Last week Elliott played 69% of the snaps finishing with 21 touches and 92 total yards. He will be New England’s unquestioned bell cow this week. After Rhamondre Stevenson left due to injury, Elliott only came off the field for three snaps. Elliott’s only appeal is volume because his tires are bald. Among 58 qualifying backs, Elliott ranks 54th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 50th in yards after contact per attempt. Pittsburgh has massively improved as a run defense as the season has moved along. Since Week 8, they have had the eighth-best stuff rate while also allowing the 12th-lowest rushing touchdown rate and the 10th-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Week 14 Positional Value: Volume-based RB2/3
Weeks 12 & 13
| Player | Rushing attempts | Targets | Routes | Red zone opportunities |
| Najee Harris | 31 | 3 | 24 | 8 |
| Jaylen Warren | 22 | 6 | 23 | 4 |
Najee Harris: Harris remains the lead back in this offense. Over the last two weeks, Harris has more rushing attempts, routes run, and red zone opportunities (eight vs. four) than Jaylen Warren. Harris ranks 28th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 25th in yards after contact per attempt. Harris is a good bet for 15-17 touches, but don’t expect him to do much with them this week. New England has been a run-stopping brick wall all season. Since Week 8, they have the 11th-lowest rushing touchdown rate and the lowest yards after contact per attempt allowed while also proudly sporting the highest stuff rate. Week 14 Positional Value: RB3
Jaylen Warren: Over the last two games, Warren has fallen back behind Harris in the running back rotation. He has averaged only 13 touches and 59.5 total yards. The only category that he has bested Harris in is targets. Harris has seen more rushing attempts, routes, and red zone opportunities. Warren remains one of the most explosive backs in the league with the ball in his hands. He ranks first in missed tackles forced per attempt and third in yards after contact per attempt behind only Devon Achane and Jaleel McLaughlin. Warren will have tough sledding this week. Since Week 8, New England has the 11th-lowest rushing touchdown rate and the lowest yards after contact per attempt allowed while also proudly sporting the highest stuff rate. Warren is a middling flex play this week. Week 14 Positional Value: RB3
Wide Receivers
Demario Douglas: Douglas has been ruled out (concussion).
Diontae Johnson: Since his Week 7 return, Johnson has had a 25.8% target share, a 43.5% air-yard share, 1.80 yards per route run (YPRR), and a 32% first-read share. Over the last seven games, he leads the team with five end-zone targets. Since Week 8, the Patriots have still led the NFL in man coverage rate (43.7%). Since Week 7, Johnson has led the team with a 28.6% target share, a 50.6% air-yard share, and a 31.4% first read share against man coverage. Johnson will run about 80% of his routes against Jonatahn Jones (60.5% catch rate and 93.8 passer rating) and J.C. Jackson (55.2% catch rate and 96.8 passer rating). Since Week 7, New England has allowed the seventh-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Week 14 Positional Value: WR3
George Pickens: Since Johnson’s return in Week 7, Pickens has taken a step back with an 18.2% target share, a 35.9% air-yard share, 1.72 YPRR, and a 22.0% first-read share. Pickens could lead the team in receiving output this week, though. While his numbers have sagged with Johnson back in the lineup overall, his usage against man coverage has remained strong. Over the last seven games against man, Pickens has had a 26.2% target share, a 45.0% air-yard share, 3.53, and a 28.6% first-read share. Pickens will run about 85% of his routes against Jonatahn Jones (60.5% catch rate and 93.8 passer rating) and J.C. Jackson (55.2% catch rate and 96.8 passer rating). Since Week 7, New England has allowed the seventh-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Week 14 Positional Value: WR3
Tight Ends
Pat Freiermuth: Since his return to the fold, Freiermuth has had a 54% route run rate, an 18.2% target share, 2.89 YPRR, and an 18.2% first-read share. Most of those numbers are pumped up by his huge Week 12 performance. In the other two games since he came back, he hasn’t seen more than five targets or finished with more than 30 receiving yards. New England has been tough against tight ends this season, allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game and only one touchdown this season. Week 14 Positional Value: TE2
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*All data utilized in this article courtesy of FantasyPros, PFF, SharpFootball Stats, Football Outsiders, FTN, Rotoviz, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*
