Welcome to Week 17 of the NFL DFS season. It’s championship week in most seasonal fantasy leagues and if you are one of the folks playing in one, good luck to you.
With the redraft season over for most players, more people are turning their attention to DFS to scratch that fantasy itch. This week, we break down a 13-game main slate.
This article is aimed at deciphering values in the lobbies. It is not meant to be a roster builder. Instead, it will help identify some players priced below their production potential based on various factors for both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Let’s get into it.
NFL Week 17 DFS Value Plays: Targets & Advice (2023)
Quarterbacks
Derek Carr (NO) $5500 vs. TB (DraftKings)
On any given week, there are a maximum of 32 starting quarterbacks in the NFL. Mr. Carr finished week two as the QB33. He also finished week 16 as the QB2, if we are trying to establish a discernable floor and ceiling. Oft-injured and spottier than a Dalmatian, Derek Carr has been the poster boy for inconsistency this season at the quarterback position. However, he has put together back-to-back QB1 weeks and is now facing a defense that can be beaten through the air.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers allow the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Over the last three weeks, they have allowed five passing touchdowns and 936 passing yards.
This began by highlighting some of the cons for Derek Carr as a fantasy option. However, there are some pros as well. On the season, he is averaging 15.2 DK points per game. He has finished as a QB1 in three of his last seven games. The run game has struggled to move the ball, inferring that the Saints once again rely on the pass for this contest. Finally, the overall feeling about Carr is suboptimal, leading to a very low roster percentage.
This all sets up Carr as a matchup-based value play for GPP contests. Not ideal for cash contests.
Bryce Young (CAR) $6600 vs. JAC (FanDuel)
Bryce Young has struggled through his rookie season, however, there have been flashes for the first overall pick. Most recently, his second top-ten positional finish last week on the heels of his first career 300-yard game. Young is also riding a three-game interception-less run, though fumbles remain an issue for the rookie.
The Jaguars allow the third-most fantasy points to quarterbacks and an average of 272 passing yards along with 1.7 passing touchdowns per game. Over their last seven games, they have allowed five quarterbacks to throw multiple touchdowns.
Young has middling QB2 appeal this week against a quarterback-friendly matchup. He would best be utilized as a GPP contest option for multiple lineup users.
Running Backs
Zamir White (LV) $5100 vs. IND (DraftKings)
At the time of this writing, Josh Jacobs has not practiced this week and is currently listed as doubtful with a quad injury. In the two games that Jacobs has missed, Zamir White has compiled 39 carries for 214 yards and scored once. Somehow, he managed to score 17.5 DK points in both of those contests.
The Colts allow the third-most fantasy points per game to running backs. They have allowed the fourth-most rushing yards (1,623) and the second-most rushing touchdowns (15) in the NFL. After averaging 19.5 rushing attempts per game and 5.4 yards per carry, White is set up to have some meaningful volume and production once again.
White’s modest salary paired with his expected volume against a defense that is allowing 4.1 yards per carry puts him in the high-end RB2 category, with RB1 potential if he breaks off a long run to pad his yards, or hits pay dirt. He is usable in both cash and GPP contests. Make sure to check inactives for Josh Jacobs before slotting White in for the expected workload.
Austin Ekeler (LAC) $6900 vs. DEN (FanDuel)
It has been a largely disappointing season for the Chargers and for Austin Ekeler. Last season’s RB1 in 0.5 point scoring is averaging 12.3 points per game this season and only has six total touchdowns.
The matchup and the discounted cost are the appeal for Ekeler this week. In their last meeting, Ekeler finished with 10/51 on the ground and 5/49 as a receiver and one touchdown. He finished that week as the RB8 and many walked away feeling like the stud had returned. The Broncos are truly wretched at defending the run. They allow the second-most fantasy points to running backs. They have allowed 18 total touchdowns to running backs and have surrendered the most rushing yards to the position.
With a current expected roster percentage of sub-10%, Ekeler stands out as a risk/reward play in a positive matchup for GPP contests.
Wide Receivers
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) $4800 vs. PIT (DraftKings)
There are some layers to this selection. First, D.K. Metcalf logged a DNP this week with a back issue. Although there is no current indication that he is in danger of missing this game, should he be limited in some capacity come game day, Smith-Njigba would be an immediate beneficiary for an uptick in snaps and targets. Secondly, the Seahawks have schemed to get their talented rookie more involved over the last few games. He has finished as a WR3 or better in each of his last three games and scored 12 or more DK points in three of his last four.
The Steelers have been middle-of-the-road against receivers, allowing the 16th-most fantasy points to the position and receiving touchdowns in each of their last two games.
The matchup is beatable and the volume has been increasing organically. Should Metcalf struggle with his back injury, JSN is in line for a little more work. He is best used in GPP contests if Metcalf plays and cash games if Metcalf is sidelined.
Rashid Shaheed (NO) $6200 vs. TB (FanDuel)
Don’t get me wrong, Chris Olave ($7400) is a fantastic play on this slate. However, if we are looking for a potential boom/bust play that could wreck the slate, Shaheed is that play. He has finished as a WR2 or better in four games this season, three of which were WR1 finishes.
The Buccaneers are generous to wide receivers, allowing the fourth-most fantasy points and the most receiving yards to the position.
In the three complete games that Shaheed has played without Michael Thomas, he has averaged a 19% target share. This matchup has sneaky shootout potential and Shaheed could benefit from Carr playing aggressively.
Shaheed would be best utilized in GPP contests and better yet in multiple lineup settings where players could use Olave in some as well.
Tight Ends
Darren Waller (NYG) $4500 vs. LAR (DraftKings)
Since his return from injured reserve, Darren Waller has seen 11 targets over the last two games for 72 total yards. While the production has not been overly impressive, the targets have been encouraging. Further encouraging is that the Giants have named veteran Tyrod Taylor the starter moving forward. In two complete games earlier this season, Taylor finished as QB21 and QB7, completing an average of 64% of his passes for 239.5 yards and a total of two passing touchdowns. Waller, healthy for the moment, provides a reliable big target with athleticism.
The Rams admittedly have been better on defense recently than their body of work this season suggests. However, they remain susceptible to allowing production to tight ends. On the season, they have allowed the third-most fantasy points to the position, including the second-most touchdowns.
Waller, when healthy, can be the focal point of an offense and should emerge as one of Taylor’s preferred reads.
Kyle Pitts (ATL) $5700 vs. CHI (FanDuel)
One of my favorite things about DFS versus seasonal fantasy leagues is that players do not have to live with their mistakes on a seasonal basis. Kyle Pitts illustrates this well. Many players spent a decent draft pick to acquire the talented tight end and have feasted on a steady diet of disappointment for a large chunk of the season. As frustrating as rostering Pitts has been, there has been encouragement lately. He has finished as a fringe TE1 in three of his last four games (coming in as TE13 in week 13).
This week, he draws a matchup against the Chicago Bears who allow the sixth-most fantasy points to tight ends. They’ve allowed six touchdowns to the position this season.
Taylor Heinicke is far from a world-beater quarterback, but he does improve the passing options around him. Pitts is in a good spot to continue the recent success. He can be used in both cash and GPP contests for this slate.
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John Hesterman is a featured writer and Expert Consensus Ranker at FantasyPros. He also writes for DynastyLeagueFootball.com. For more from John, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter/X @John_Hesterman.
