Happy holidays to all my fellow DFS degenerates out there. I wish for all of my readers and the fantasy community to have a holiday that is full of family, food, football and fantasy points.
With the redraft season over for most players, more are turning their attention to DFS to scratch that fantasy itch. This week, we break down a nine-game main slate.
This article is aimed at deciphering values in the lobbies. It is not meant to be a roster builder. Instead, it will help identify some players priced below their production potential based on various factors for both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Let’s get into it.
NFL Week 16 DFS Value Plays: Targets & Advice (2023)
Quarterbacks
Joe Flacco (CLE) $5500 vs. HOU (DraftKings)
Vintage is often related to a wine of a particular year and typically of high quality. It can also refer to something older that still retains value from a classic mindset. Well, this week, pour yourselves a tall glass of Joe Flacco for DFS purposes. Granted, he has the mobility of a partially injured giraffe. He also is prone to bone-headed interceptions and more likely to throw two once he has thrown one. However, the cerebral part of the game and his arm remain vintage. He literally came off the couch to under center and has put up 21-plus DK points in three of his four games played this season. Not only that, he has elevated the play of the receivers around him, making them more viable in DFS settings as well.
The Houston Texans allow the 11th-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. They have surrendered five 300-yard games to quarterbacks, including most recently, Zach Wilson. With a few key defensive players currently listed as questionable, it is expected that they will not be at full force for this game.
For DFS purposes, Flacco can overcome his ability to turn the ball over with his ability to put up yards and touchdowns. Expect both volume and turnovers to continue with the former often outweighing the latter. He is a good stacking candidate for GPP contests for this slate.
Geno Smith (SEA) $6600 vs. TEN (FanDuel)
Geno Smith wowed Seahawks fans, and the fantasy crowd, with his play this past season. This year, however, he has disappointed in terms of repeating that success. However, Smith does have three QB1 weeks under his belt, two of which have occurred over his last four games played. Overall, he has five games of 15 or more FanDuel points, three of which were over 20 points.
After being sidelined over the last two weeks with a groin injury, he seemed nearly ready to go in Week 15. At the time of this writing, Smith is expected to suit up for his week 16 matchup against the Tennessee Titans.
The Titans’ run defense is solid but they are much easier to beat through the air. They allow the tenth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. They have also had a recent bout of injuries to the defense including players like Sean Murphy-Bunting and Caleb Farley, both of whom have been ruled out for this contest.
Geno is primarily recommended as a GPP contest play this week and represents stackable options.
Running Backs
Bijan Robinson (ATL) $6300 vs. IND (DraftKings)
Both usage and production were subjects of disappointment last week. Robinson gained only 14 yards on eight touches totaling 1.4 DraftKing points and setting off a flurry of ‘oh crap, here we go again’ memes aimed directly at head curmudgeon Arthur Smith. In the end, they lost to the Panthers, so let’s all hope that Mr. Smith learned a valuable lesson.
That game aside, Robinson’s volume was starting to appear more consistent. He had seen double-digit carries in each game since week and three or more receptions in the three previous games. He has scored 15 or more DraftKing points in six games this season.
Meanwhile, the Indianapolis Colts allow the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs. They have allowed the eighth-most rushing yards (1,456), the fifth-most receiving yards (583), and tied for the second-most rushing touchdowns (14) this season.
Yes, trusting Robinson to get the volume is where the risk is here. But, if a lowly DFS writer can spot the chink in the Colts’ defensive armor, it is at least understandable that Coach Smith can come to the same conclusion.
Robinson can be used in both cash and GPP contests this week. Tyler Allgeier ($4600) is a good pivot play for multiple lineups.
Antonio Gibson (WAS) $5500 vs. NYJ (FanDuel)
Most of the DFS degens were expecting a bump in usage from Gibson in the absence of Brian Robinson Jr. last week. He finished with nine touches for 35 scoreless, and largely disappointing, yards. His 45% snap share was well in line with his season average.
This week they draw a tough matchup through the air against the New York Jets. However, they do allow production on the ground. The Jets allow the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs. I know what many may be thinking, “But, they’ll be giving the early down work to Chris Rodriguez.” True, but the Jets have also allowed the sixth-most receiving yards (549) and receiving touchdowns (4) to the position. Gibson has not scored on the ground this season. If he hits paydirt, it will be through the air based on his production thus far and what the defense has allowed.
Gibson does not garner the trust in production to be considered for cash contests. He is a GPP dart throw who has the potential of his role in the offense and a defense that is friendly to that role. Therefore, he is a GPP option only this week and carries risk just as well as the ball.
Wide Receivers
D.J. Moore (CHI) $6900 vs. ARI (DraftKings)
D.J. Moore has seen nine or more targets in four of his past five games. In the one he fell short of this mark, it was by one target. On the season, he is the WR10 in fantasy points per game and is averaging 18.1 DK points per game this season.
The Arizona Cardinals allow the 14th-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season. They have allowed five receivers to eclipse the 100-yard mark and have given up the tenth-most receiving touchdowns (13) to the position. They have proven to be more susceptible to perimeter receivers.
Moore maintains a 27.5% target share and faces a defense that could struggle to contain his outside explosiveness. Moore can be used in both cash and GPP contests but seems more suited in cash games.
Drake London (ATL) $6200 vs. IND (FanDuel)
Volatility, Drake London be thy name. Two weeks ago, London flashed the upside he possesses after going 10/172 and an overall WR2 finish among his peers. The following game he went 2/24 in a rain-soaked game where quarterback play was poor on both sides. Some of the volatility can be laid at the feet of Desmond Ridder and his inconsistent play. This week, Taylor Heinicke will be under center and London should be a big part of the offensive plan.
The Colts have struggled recently against wide receivers. They have allowed four touchdowns to the position over the past four weeks and three receivers to clear 70 or more yards during that same span.
When Heinicke started back in week nine, London was sidelined with an injury. This will be the first start they are making together and with all his warts, Heinicke should elevate the floor that London possesses. London is more suited as a GPP play this week. Think of him as a high-end WR3 with mid-range WR2 as a ceiling.
Tight Ends
David Njoku (CLE) $5300 vs. HOU (DraftKings)
Since making the switch to Joe Flacco at quarterback, Njoku is averaging a 20.8% target share. He has simply erupted with the veteran under center, with 195 yards and three scores over the last two games. He is averaging 12.8 yards per reception over his last two.
Houston is allowing the ninth-most fantasy points to tight ends. They are also the fifth-softest schedule-adjusted matchup against the position since week seven, per FantasyPointsData.
Cleveland has become far more pass-happy with Flacco operating the offense and the matchup is better than the salary suggests. Njoku is a value play due to cost versus expected volume. He can be used in both cash and GPP contests but feels more at home in a competitive GPP lineup.
Evan Engram (JAC) $6300 vs. TB (FanDuel)
Evan Engram has come on strong over the back half of this season. All three of his touchdowns have come over the past three games. Over that span, he is averaging nine targets for 68.3 yards per game. With Christian Kirk done for the season, the role across the middle has been predominantly his to maintain.
The Buccanneers are far more intimidating against the run than they are against the pass. They allow the fifth-most fantasy points to the position and have allowed 57 yards and a touchdown to tight ends in each of the last two games.
Between a fairly secure role in the offense, a slight discount in salary versus expected volume, and a choice matchup, Engram is set up as a great value play for this slate. He can be used in both cash and GPP contests.
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John Hesterman is a featured writer and Expert Consensus Ranker at FantasyPros. He also writes for DynastyLeagueFootball.com. For more from John, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter/X @John_Hesterman.
