Welcome to week 15 of NFL DFS values. With Saturday games and DFS occurring this week, we have a 10-game slate that has its bright spots but also features some less-than-ideal matchups. It is an interesting slate, to say the least.
This article is aimed at deciphering values in the lobbies. It is not meant to be a roster builder. Instead, it will help identify some players priced below their production potential based on various factors for both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Let’s get into it.
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NFL Week 15 DFS Value Plays: Targets & Advice (2023)
Quarterbacks
Matthew Stafford (LAR) vs. WAS | $6000 (DraftKings)
Stafford opened the season with plenty of passing yards and not a lot of touchdowns as running back Kyren Williams was feasting in that department. However, over the past four weeks, Stafford is quietly the QB6 in fantasy points and has thrown 11 touchdowns to only two interceptions in that span. In DraftKings scoring, he is averaging 20.42 points per game over his past four. Williams is healthy, Cooper Kupp has been doing Cooper Kupp things and Puka Nacua was apparently born to ball with the best of them.
Meanwhile, the Commanders firmly believe in offering opposing quarterbacks as much comfort as possible while getting valuable reps in. Over their past four games, they have allowed Geno Smith 369 yards and two scores, Tommy DeVito 246/3, Dak Prescott 331/4 and Tua Tagovailoa 280/2. It is a travesty that Tua did not throw five touchdowns to keep the sequence going. Penciling Stafford in for 280/3 is certainly not out of the question. Overall, the Rams are allowing the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks and an average of 2.3 passing touchdowns per contest.
Due to cost, recent trends, and an aggressively attractive matchup, Stafford will be chalky. Therefore, he is better utilized in cash contests but can be built into GPP’s for multiple lineup users who are not a little chalk intolerant.
Jordan Love (GB) vs. TB | $8000 (FanDuel)
Jordan Love has been on a productive streak lately, scoring 20 or more FanDuel points in three out of his past four games. Overall, he is QB12 on the season in fantasy points per game (18.6) and is tied for the fourth-most passing touchdowns (23) in the league. He has finished as a QB1 in eight of 13 games played this season.
Tampa Bay, though still stiff against the run, has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. They also have allowed the most passing yards per game since Week 9. Since the Packers lack a fundamentally sound running game, it will once again be up to Love to move the offense with his arm.
The question is which Love shows up? The Dr. Jekyll who can throw multiple touchdown passes and adds nearly 20 rushing yards a game? Or Mr. Hyde, who is erratic in his decision-making and struggles to make routine throws?
The matchup favors Jordan Love as being a positive value at the position for this slate. He seems more suited for GPP contests but can also easily be used in cash.
Running Backs
Bijan Robinson (ATL) vs. CAR | $6800 (DraftKings)
Yes, the backfield splits are just as maddening as the target distribution on this Arthur Smith-led offense. The theory of rational coaching belongs in the appendix of flat-earth theory textbooks. However, we have seen more consistent usage for the talented rookie, logging ten or more carries in every game but one this season. Over the past four games, he is averaging 16.5 rush attempts and five targets per contest. Three of his four rushing touchdowns have occurred in that span.
The Panthers allow an average of 109.2 rushing yards and 1.4 rushing touchdowns per game. They allow the third-most fantasy points to opposing running backs. The last time these two teams met, Tyler Allgeier ($4400) had two rushing touchdowns on 15 carries. Robinson handled ten totes for 56 yards on the ground, six catches for 27 yards and a score through the air. That was back in Week 1, and Robinson has been on the upswing since then.
Robinson should continue to narrowly lead this backfield and is the preferred option for cash games, leaving Allgeier as the one-off swing in GPP contests.
Rachaad White (TB) vs. GB | $7600 (FanDuel)
White has landed in this article before and keeps coming through either on the ground, through the air, or both. Over his past three contests, he has hit the 100-yard rushing mark twice and scored twice. He holds the majority share of this backfield, averaging 19.2 touches for 89.5 total yards per game. He is the RB5 in half-point PPR scoring formats this season and has the third-most receiving yards (419) among all running backs.
The Packers run defense allows the seventh-most fantasy points to running backs. They allow an average of 105.6 rushing yards and 28.2 receiving yards per game. They have also allowed the fifth-most rushing touchdowns this season.
Expect White to once again have a healthy workload as both a rusher and a receiver this week. Between cost and matchup, he lines up better for cash contests.
Wide Receivers
Jayden Reed (GB) vs. TB | $4900 (DraftKings)
Reed brings versatility to the Packers’ offense and represents a scoring threat both as a receiver and ball carrier. Through 13 games, he has seven total touchdowns, two of which are rushing scores. He has scored 19 or more fantasy points in three of his past five games. When Christian Watson is out of the lineup, Reed’s targets rise from 4.9 per game to 6.7 per game. Watson has not been practicing this week and is all but expected to be sidelined for another game. Reed has also been fighting a minor injury but has logged limited practice sessions. Be sure to monitor the injury reports before locking him in.
The Buccaneers allow the fifth-most fantasy points to wide receivers, but they have not allowed a receiving touchdown to a wideout since week 11. With Reed’s versatility, this feels far less concerning about his ability to find a way into the end zone again.
Reed represents a better play in GPP contests for this slate.
Elijah Moore (CLE) vs. CHI | $5700 (FanDuel)
Whoever wrote the script for Moore is devious in their approach. It has been a quarterback carousel with various inaccuracies or lack of targets. Joe Flacco has invigorated the aerial portion of this offense, and Moore has been a beneficiary of more reliable targets. He has finished with seven or more targets in four of his past five games. He is averaging 54.6 receiving yards in that span and has one touchdown.
The Bears’ secondary is allowing middle-of-the-road production as far as receiving yards. However, they have allowed the seventh-most touchdowns to wide receivers. The focus will most likely be on Amari Cooper ($7200), allowing some opportunities to break coverage for Moore. The difference is that with Flacco under center, he is more likely to see it when it happens and deliver an accurate ball.
Moore is in the GPP conversation more than trying to work him into a competitive cash lineup.
Tight Ends
Logan Thomas (WAS) vs. LAR | $3700 (DraftKings)
Thomas’s two games before their Week 14 bye were nothing to write home about. Still, he has four weeks this season as a TE1 and maintains a 13% target share. He is averaging 5.2 targets per game.
The Rams’ secondary primarily ignores the tight end position. They allow the third-most fantasy points to the position, averaging 7.2 targets for 62.2 receiving yards per game. Thomas represents a positive volume-to-salary ratio and is a nice value play this week for GPP contests in a game with an over/under of 50.5, which is the highest on the slate.
Chig Okonkwo (TEN) vs. HOU | $5000 (FanDuel)
Since returning from their bye week, Okonkwo has been featured a bit more in the offense. From Week 8 on, he has seen less than five targets only twice. While we still wait for that elusive first touchdown of the season, the bump in usage is encouraging.
Houston allows the third-most fantasy points to the position. They have allowed 50 or more receiving yards six times this season and four touchdowns to tight ends.
Okonkwo is far from a slam dunk, but hitting the 5K mark for salary makes him an intriguing dart throw for GPP contests, especially for those who set multiple lineups.
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John Hesterman is a featured writer and Expert Consensus Ranker at FantasyPros. He also writes for DynastyLeagueFootball.com. For more from John, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter/X @John_Hesterman.
