Has anyone bothered to politely ask this DFS season to slow down? Welcome to Week 14 of NFL DFS and an 11-game slate full of interesting lineup capabilities. As more and more seasonal leagues whittle their masses down to the playoffs, some players lean more into DFS as an avenue to scratch that fantasy itch. Luckily, we’re here to help sift through the players, trends and matchups so the faithful readers do not have to.
This article is aimed at deciphering values in the lobbies. It is not meant to be a roster builder. Instead, it will help identify some players priced below their production potential based on various factors for both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Let’s get into it.
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NFL Week 14 DFS Value Plays: Targets & Advice
Quarterbacks
Justin Fields (CHI) vs. DET | $6,800 (DraftKings)
Since Week 4, Justin Fields has finished as a top-10 quarterback three times in five games, including an overall QB1 finish. Despite missing four games, he is tied for third among quarterbacks in rushing yards (400). In DK scoring, he averages 19.2 points per game, the eighth-highest among the position on this slate.
The Lions allow the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. They allow an average of 247 passing yards, 1.7 touchdowns and 28.4 rushing yards per game. Fields completed 69% of his passes in their last divisional tilt and rushed for 104 yards.
Fields maintains a safe floor with his rushing ability and has shown incremental growth as a passer, especially with D.J. Moore in town. He remains a floor play with a high potential ceiling and, therefore sets up nicely as a risk/reward GPP option.
Baker Mayfield (TB) @ ATL | $6,800 (FanDuel)
Gross, I know, but stick with me. Baker Mayfield has the eighth-most pass attempts (409), 14th-most passing yards (2,790) and the 13th-most passing touchdowns (18) among quarterbacks this season. He has fewer interceptions (eight) than Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes and Tua Tagovailoa, who all have 10 or more. Mayfield only has one game without a passing touchdown this season, back in Week 6. He is playing competent football and typically provides safe-floor production for fantasy purposes.
The Falcons allow the sixth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. When these teams met in Week 6, Mayfield threw for 275 yards, one touchdown, one interception and added 32 rushing yards for 17.2 FD points. Mayfield averages 232 passing yards and 1.5 passing touchdowns per game. The Falcons are allowing an average of 1.4 passing touchdowns per game.
Mayfield should outproduce his salary but has a capped ceiling. He will not singlehandedly win a matchup, but he does allow for adding more firepower elsewhere in lineups. He also represents some decent stacking options between Mike Evans ($8,500) and Rachaad White ($7,400). He is best used in multiple lineup builds as the one-off roster in GPP contests.
Running Backs
Joe Mixon (CIN) vs. IND | $6,100 (DraftKings)
For the season, Joe Mixon is the RB6 in PPR scoring. He is the RB11 in fantasy points per game (14.8) and has scored 20 or more DK points in two of his last three games. Mixon has become a focal point of the offense since Joe Burrow‘s season-ending surgery and will likely continue to be featured in his role as both a runner and a short-yardage pass-catcher.
The Bengals host the Colts in a showdown with a one-point projected differential and a 44-point over/under. Based on Vegas, some scoring shall occur. The Colts’ run defense is suspect, allowing the fourth-most fantasy points and 1.1 rushing touchdowns to RBs per game. Mixon has seven total touchdowns on the season already and will be looking to extend that total in this matchup.
Mixon will have the workload, the defense is generous and he still has just the 15th-highest salary on the slate. The value is baked into the price and in a good matchup where a middling RB1 finish is expected. He is usable in both cash and GPP contests for this slate but preferred in cash.
Zack Moss (IND) @ CIN | $6,800 (FanDuel)
Jonathan Taylor has been ruled out for this contest, leaving Zack Moss to once again step into a heavy workload. With Taylor sidelined, Moss has accounted for a 76.2% market rush share and 21.2 carries for 82.8 rushing yards per game.
The Bengals allow a middle-of-the-pack 15th-most fantasy points to the running back position. Since Week 8, they have allowed six rushing touchdowns and an average of 85.33 rushing yards.
Moss’ expected workload covers the risk of the salary. However, as last week’s tilt against the Titans (19 carries for 51 scoreless yards) proved, he can still fall short of expectations. He was a chalky play last week and disappointed those who invested in his services. That could sway DFS players away from him, making him a little more enticing for FanDuel lineups.
Moss is best utilized in GPP contests this week.
Wide Receivers
Elijah Moore (CLE) vs. JAX | $4,500 (DraftKings)
One of the few things that would make me happier than writing about Elijah Moore as a solid value play in DFS would be writing about Laviska Shenault Jr. in a DFS environment. Sadly, the latter looks like a multi-year procedural miss by yours truly. But I digress. There are a few things that must transpire to make this play anything more than a low-cost dart throw in GPP contests.
First, the quarterback. As of publishing, the starting signal-caller for the Browns has yet to be named, though most expect it to be Joe Flacco. Flacco would be the better bet for pass catchers in this offense, but the Browns may need to see more of what Dorian Thompson-Robinson brings to the table.
Secondly, Amari Cooper‘s status is still up in the air. After exiting last week’s tilt with a concussion, he must battle a protocol before being cleared to play. If Cooper cannot clear concussion protocol, Moore becomes the defacto primary wide receiver for whichever quarterback is under center.
In short, if Flacco is named the starter, Moore retains some interest regardless of Cooper’s status. They have a little bit of history already and Flacco, though not without warts, is a very capable passer. If “DTR” is named the starter and Cooper is out, he still retains some upside as the expected primary read. If DTR starts and Cooper is active, Moore becomes more of the long-shot play for the higher-end, million-dollar contests.
The Jaguars’ defense has looked less-than-stellar against receivers lately and is averaging the seventh-most fantasy points to receivers for the season.
Pay close attention to the starting lineup before using Moore as anything more than a floor play/home run swing in GPP contests this week.
Rashee Rice (KC) vs. BUF | $6,300 (FanDuel)
Rashee Rice has seen eight or more targets in two of their last three games since coming out of their Week 10 bye. He has finished with 50 or more receiving yards in six games this season and double-digit FD points in five of them. Rice is emerging as Patrick Mahomes’ preferred non-Travis Kelce target and has established a role in red zone packages.
The Bills allow an average of the ninth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. However, last week, they allowed three touchdown receptions to three different receivers on a combined 12 targets. Rice leads this receiving core in targets inside of 10 yards and is gaining Mahomes’ trust in high-value situations.
In a game that has a 48.5 over/under, pieces of both offenses should be in DFS lineups. At his current salary and role within the offense, Rice is a strong potential return on investment receiver this week.
Tight Ends
Gerald Everett (LAC) vs. DEN | $3,400 (DraftKings)
Yes, we are digging a little deep on this one because it is tight ends, but we are either chasing reliable volume or touchdown opportunity. Gerald Everett represents a little of both. In both of his last two games, Everett cleared the 40-yard receiving mark and scored once on nine total targets. Since Week 6, he has finished as a TE1 three times.
The Broncos’ secondary has actually improved drastically over the second half of the season, except against tight ends. They are allowing the most fantasy points and 71 receiving yards to the position per game. Last week, they allowed 64 receiving yards to Brevin Jordan, who frankly has the athleticism of a wide-berth tugboat. In Week 12, they allowed 61 yards and a score to the tandem of David Njoku and Harrison Byrant. In Week 11, it was 114 receiving yards and a score split between T.J. Hockenson and Josh Oliver.
With an open-door policy to tight ends, the generous salary and an offense missing reliable receivers, it is the perfect time to drop Everett in lineups and watch Donald Parham ($3,200) drop a 3/7/2 stat line on all of us. Everett is a GPP candidate that allows the ability to spend up elsewhere but is not recommended for cash contests.
Isaiah Likely (BAL) vs. LAR | $5,200 (FanDuel)
The top tight end options are all viable on this slate. Trying to sift through the volatile production at the position often feels like an exercise in futility. In two games without Mark Andrews last season, Isaiah Likely saw an average of nine targets, 4.5 receptions for 63.5 receiving yards. We have seen him step into this role and succeed with it, and Lamar Jackson has shown a proclivity to target his tight ends often.
The Rams barely believe in tight ends and, therefore, make little attempt to cover them. They allow the third-most fantasy points to the position and an average of 60.5 receiving yards and 0.5 touchdowns.
Likely should be in GPP lineups as opposed to cash contests. Between Zay Flowers, Odell Beckham Jr. and Rashod Bateman, there is more viable competition for targets than last season. Likely showed the ability to handle a larger target share last season. With a bye week to gain some valuable reps, Likely could step into a moderate target share with end zone appeal.
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John Hesterman is a featured writer and Expert Consensus Ranker at FantasyPros. He also writes for DynastyLeagueFootball.com. For more from John, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter/X @John_Hesterman.
