It’s Week 17. For most, this is championship week in their fantasy leagues. Well, here in DFS, it’s always a one-win season, so we are battle-tested heading into this slate.
We may be more battle-tested than ever at this point due to the slew of injuries that hit the NFL landscape this year. This slate is tricky with the mass of games on the main slate.
We are here to help you navigate the waters and identify which games we should build stacks from in order to win some significant cash on New Year’s Eve! Let’s get into it with our first stack from one of the most popular games.
NFL DFS Week 17 Stacking Advice
Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens
We head into one of the most intense battles in the slate and lean right into our rule of using the slight underdog to succeed in DFS this week. With Jaylen Waddle out, the combo of Tua to Tyreek should be mentioned more than “see you next year” this weekend. Tua is sitting at >1% of rostership this weekend. Most people fear the Ravens’ defense (for good reason). However, with the Ravens being one of the highest implied totals on the slate, Tua will need to throw to keep the Dolphins competitive.
It’s Week 17. For most, this is championship week in their fantasy leagues. Well, here in DFS, it’s always a one-win season, so we are battle-tested heading into this slate.
We may be more battle-tested than ever at this point due to the slew of injuries that hit the NFL landscape this year. This slate is tricky with the mass of games on the main slate.
We are here to help you navigate the waters and identify which games we should build stacks from in order to win some significant cash on New Year’s Eve! Let’s get into it with our first stack from one of the most popular games.
NFL DFS Week 17 Stacking Advice
Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens
We head into one of the most intense battles in the slate and lean right into our rule of using the slight underdog to succeed in DFS this week. With Jaylen Waddle out, the combo of Tua to Tyreek should be mentioned more than “see you next year” this weekend. Tua is sitting at >1% of rostership this weekend. Most people fear the Ravens’ defense (for good reason). However, with the Ravens being one of the highest implied totals on the slate, Tua will need to throw to keep the Dolphins competitive.
Wilson is our dart throw with Waddle being out. Wilson game models Josh Reynolds from Detroit and can create some productive moments like Reynolds. Wilson tallied his highest yardage total since Week 7 and we expect Tua to need a second playmaker to create a chance for an upset this weekend.
With Zay Flowers missing practices, we must choose between Rashod Bateman and OBJ. As weird as it sounds, we trust OBJ more within this offense. Bateman has been under 20 receiving yards six times in his 14 appearances this season. In contrast, OBJ has been a Top-10 WR on the week twice. It’s risky, but if Zay Flowers is limited, we can dominate the slate with this 1.1% rostership wide receiver.
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Once again, we lean into the slight underdog narrative to build this super stack. This stack is a high-risk, high reward because Carr can give us three touchdowns or three interceptions. However, the way to beat the Buccaneers is through the air.
The Buccaneers defense has allowed the most passing yards in 2023. They have also allowed the eighth most passing touchdowns this season. The combination of stats has led to the Buccaneers being the ninth-easiest matchup for quarterbacks this season.
If Carr is successful, it will be because of his primary weapon. Olave has had 11 weeks of eight or more targets with six weeks of double-digit targets. Olave has been a Top-12 wide receiver in three of his last six games. We expect more of the same against the Buccaneers without Carlton Davis.
This Buccaneers defense needs everyone at full health as they already allow the fourth-highest total of receptions, the most receiving yards and the seventh-most receiving touchdowns. With the Buccaneers allowing the fourth-highest fantasy points per game (FPPG) to the wide receiver, we would be foolish not to stack Derek Carr with Chris Olave.
Tight ends are crucial against the Buccaneers as they love to run Cover-3 within their defensive scheme. Cover-3 is susceptible to players dominating down the seams of the field. The Buccaneers allow .48 per dropback in this cover and we could see more of the same with the Buccaneers defense missing Shaq Barrett.
With Johnson sitting at .3% of the rostership, he is the ultimate slate breaker for DFS this week. Most people will turn to Rashid Shaheed or Taysom Hill, where we take advantage with Johnson. Johnson was TE5 last week and scored 12 or more points in his previous two games. Zig while your opponents zag and use Johnson to your advantage.
Palmer is our bring-back dart throw within this stack. Most will lean to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, but that could get pricey. Palmer has had four games in his last six, seeing at least five targets, so he pops up in my model as someone who can break open the slate for your team. With his 98th percentile 40-yard dash (4.33) and his 89th percentile speed score (107.7), Palmer could sneak behind the defense for a long touchdown this weekend.
Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles
A stack without Jalen Hurts is risky, but this could be the game where this non-QB stack thrives within your lineup. First, we discuss Swift within your lineup. Using Swift is simple; the Cardinals are one of the worst run defenses in the NFL this year. The Cardinals allow the most FPPG to the position and with Swift sitting at 8% rostership, we can build leverage on the field.
As for Smith within our lineups, the Cardinals use Cover-4 as their primary defensive scheme. Smith loves to attack this scheme; his coverage grade is +4.5%, the highest on the Eagles this week. Smith produces .47 FP/RTE against Cover 4, the highest on the team. The Eagles have the second-highest implied total in Week 17, and with their recent play, most users will be fearful of leaning into this team; we will use that leverage to make money this weekend.
We could also use A.J. Brown, but the reason we lean into Smith is due to the price point of each wide receiver. Either option works for us, but Smith sits under 1% rostership, allowing us to attack a high implied total while keeping our rostership total lower than the field.
Remember to read all our fantastic work here at FantasyPros. This week can become chaotic, especially with our responsibilities around the holiday. Feel free to contact me on Twitter/X if you need additional help at @jpep20. I hope you have an unforgettable New Year’s Eve and cap it off with a significant victory in these DFS streets. Good luck in Week 17!
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