Week 16 is here, and we are stacking our lineups like Santa stacks his sacks with gifts. The goal is to give ourselves the best gift: a pocket full of cash this holiday season.
This slate is convoluted, as there are only nine games on the main slate and multiple small slates surrounding it. Let us help you find the perfect players for your lineups through the holiday chaos.
We will begin with my favorite stack/correlation from an exciting game inside a dome. The best part of this stack is that no quarterback is involved. Interested yet? Let’s dive in!
NFL DFS Week 16 Stacking Advice
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings
The Lions versus the Vikings should be an absolute juggernaut affair between two offenses with superstar players. We first look to the Detroit side of this contest to see that the crowd is off St. Brown (AMSB) this week. AMSB is projected for a rostership lower than 10% within lineups across the DFS playing world.
Week 16 is here, and we are stacking our lineups like Santa stacks his sacks with gifts. The goal is to give ourselves the best gift: a pocket full of cash this holiday season.
This slate is convoluted, as there are only nine games on the main slate and multiple small slates surrounding it. Let us help you find the perfect players for your lineups through the holiday chaos.
We will begin with my favorite stack/correlation from an exciting game inside a dome. The best part of this stack is that no quarterback is involved. Interested yet? Let’s dive in!
NFL DFS Week 16 Stacking Advice
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings
The Lions versus the Vikings should be an absolute juggernaut affair between two offenses with superstar players. We first look to the Detroit side of this contest to see that the crowd is off St. Brown (AMSB) this week. AMSB is projected for a rostership lower than 10% within lineups across the DFS playing world.
That is a mistake when St. Brown is WR5 in fantasy points per game. He also ranks 12th in deep targets and 16th in red zone targets. We know St. Brown brings a safe floor and right now, it may be more flashy to play Jahmyr Gibbs or Sam LaPorta, but ole reliable here will soak up targets as they face a Vikings defense that uses two-high at the most significant clip in the NFL (71.3%).
Jefferson is at the cheapest price you may see him for the rest of his playing career. The market also knows this, with his rostership percentage over 25%. Jefferson will be chalk but with our usual plays of “use RBs as chalk” disappearing this week, Jefferson brings you that slate-breaking potential that every lineup loves.
Last week, Jefferson drew a 29.4% target share and over 50% air-yard share to combine with a 35.7% first-read share. Nick Mullens must have attended AP classes because this man is brilliant. He knows the rules: “Find your best players”. Jefferson is the best player on the field Sunday, and with this price, we would be foolish not to eat a little chalk.
Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans
We are living on a slate where Mullens leads in rostership percentage. What a world we live in right now. In our opinion, that is an example of lousy chalk, so we suggest getting a contrarian play at the quarterback position with Flacco. Right now, Flacco sits at a 6.7% rostership percentage. Have people already forgotten about this streak of impressive moments performed by the aging superstar?
Flacco, since taking over, has been the QB8 on the season. He averages 44.3 passing attempts! Flacco produces over 300 yards passing and 2.3 touchdowns within those attempts. The Browns have entirely flipped their offensive scheme with Flacco under center and we need to take advantage of it while he stays at this low price.
We understand that you worry about the game due to the Houston Texans playing this game without their stud rookie, C.J. Stroud. However, the Texans are a strong enough team to keep the Browns in a tough matchup, allowing Flacco to slip into gunslinger mode again.
Since Flacco should sling the ball all over the yard Sunday, let’s pair him with his favorite option. Right now, Njoku is rostered in under 15% of lineups. I wouldn’t suggest he is chalk, but Njoku isn’t a secret either.
We don’t expect people to miss the Browns team leader in target share. Njoku also sports a 19.1% first-read share on this team. Since Week 7, Njoku has been TE5 in the NFL and faces a Texans defense that struggles against the tight-end position this week.
The Texans allow the fourth most fantasy points per game (FPPG) and the third most receiving yards to tight ends. When every metric points to one outcome, we would be foolish not to believe it and take advantage of it within our lineup.
Seattle Seahawks at Tennessee Titans
No one in this stack sits at over 10% rostership. This stack will allow us to get different and take significant leaps up the boards when it performs. This game isn’t popular since one team has a quarterback coming off injury while the other is a boring offensive team with a quarterback dealing with an injury.
On paper, it looks disgusting to us. However, we build leverage here with Smith and Metcalf facing this pass funnel Titans defense. In 2023, the Titans have allowed the second-most receptions to wide receivers. They have also allowed the sixth most receiving yards with the seventh most receiving touchdowns. These stats are why the Titans sit with the eighth-highest FPPG allowed to the position.
Picking the right Seahawks’ pass catcher is crucial to our success. Metcalf ranks seventh in deep targets and fourth in the red zone. He is the primary weapon for the Seahawks offense, and if he is grooving Sunday, it means Smith is performing well. All of this shall elevate our lineups into the cash all Sunday long.
Now, for a lesson in game theory with Spears, it is pretty simple. Do you expect the Titans to lead in this game? We don’t. If that’s the case, we lean to Spears, who will become a salary relief and a key cog in winning any GPP. He has averaged 59% of snaps in the last two weeks with 11.5 total touches and 77.5 total yards.
The Titans have no reason to use only Derrick Henry and need to see what they have in Spears. Don’t be surprised if we see a lot more of the rookie within the Titans’ lineup this weekend.
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Remember to read all the fantastic work here at FantasyPros. Contact me on social media at @jpep20 if you need more advice. Have a wonderful holiday season! Good luck in Week 16!