This piece is part of our article program, featuring quality content from experts exclusively at FantasyPros. For more insight from Geoff, head over to GoingFor2.com.
Happy Holidays! We have a weird slate this week with the two games on Saturday, three games on Monday, and of course the Thursday night game. That doesn’t leave us with a full-sized main slate for Sunday, but sometimes these smaller slates can be a lot of fun. There is still a lot of injury news we are waiting to hear about, but there is plenty of value this week.
This piece is part of our article program, featuring quality content from experts exclusively at FantasyPros. For more insight from Geoff, head over to GoingFor2.com.
Happy Holidays! We have a weird slate this week with the two games on Saturday, three games on Monday, and of course the Thursday night game. That doesn’t leave us with a full-sized main slate for Sunday, but sometimes these smaller slates can be a lot of fun. There is still a lot of injury news we are waiting to hear about, but there is plenty of value this week.
NFL DFS Value Picks to Target: Week 16
Quarterback
DraftKings
Baker Mayfield (TB) vs. JAX | $6,000
Mayfield is coming off his best game of the season throwing for 381 yards and four touchdowns. This week he gets a struggling Jacksonville Jaguars defense that is giving up the third-most points to quarterbacks. Vegas has this game total at 43.5, but with these two struggling secondaries, this game has some sneaky shootout potential. Lamar Jackson only passed for 171 yards against the Jags this past week, but the week before Joe Flacco threw for over 300 yards with three touchdowns. The week before that, Jake Browning lit them up for 354 yards and a touchdown.
Others to consider: Geno Smith (SEA) | $5,800
FanDuel
Geno Smith (SEA) @ TEN | $6,600
Smith was cleared to play this past week, but the Seahawks decided to give him one more week to get fully healthy. There was some question as to whether or not Drew Lock had earned another start after his game-winning performance last week, but Pete Carroll has already announced Smith will be the starter. Smith makes his return against the 27th-ranked pass defense DVOA.
Others to consider: Nick Mullens (MIN) | $7,000
Running Back
DraftKings
Breece Hall (NYJ) vs. WAS | $6,100
Hall had a tough game last week in a game they got down early and never really had a chance to get going. He gets the Washington Commanders this week and shouldn’t have the same issue against this struggling team. Hall’s value lately has come in the passing game and the Commanders rank 22nd in pass defense DVOA to the running back position. Whoever is under center for the Jets will likely be checking down to Hall a lot in this game.
Others to consider: Ty Chandler (MIN) $5,600 | Devin Singletary (HOU) $5,500
FanDuel
Aaron Jones (GB) @ CAR | $6,700
Jones continues to be limited in practice after getting 17 opportunities this past weekend. There’s no word that there has been any type of setback with his knee, so I would expect they are just playing it safe and he should be good to go. The Panthers ranked 31st in run defense DVOA, and, while they have played slightly better of late, if Jones is going to get a similar workload as he did last week at $6,700, I will have him in a ton of my lineups.
Others to consider: Devin Singletary (HOU) $6,200 | Chuba Hubbard (CAR) $6,400
Wide Receiver
DraftKings
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) @ TEN | $4,500
Smith-Njigba’s fantasy day was saved this past week with a game-winning touchdown, but if you go back to the last time he played with Geno Smith under center, he received 11 targets. Any player getting 11 targets at $4,500 is a great value, but when they also get a matchup with the 27th-ranked pass defense DVOA like the Titans are, they become a must-play.
Others to consider: Garrett Wilson (NYJ) $5,800 | Josh Downs (IND) $5,500
FanDuel
Green Bay Wide Receivers @ CAR
Currently, all four of the Green Bay wide receivers (Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson, and Dontayvion Wicks) are listed as questionable and all of them are priced in a range they can be considered values. I’d expect at least one of them will miss this game and maybe two of them, if that’s the case, the ones that do suit up will be in my lineups.
Others to consider: Calvin Ridley (JAX) | $6,800
Tight End
DraftKings
Chig Okonkwo (TEN) vs. SEA | $3,100
Finding those cheap tight ends that can put up a big game has become nearly impossible at this point in the season, and this week is no different. Okonkwo will be a popular choice because of his price point, but I wouldn’t expect a huge game from him. I’d likely pay up a tight end, but on a short slate like this one, if you need the salary savings, Chig is as good as any.
FanDuel
Cade Otton (TB) vs. JAX | $5,200
On FanDuel, the lack of PPR makes picking a cheap tight end even tougher, so I’m looking at Cade Otton as someone who could fall into the end zone. His targets have consistently hung around four to five a game, so last week’s two was a bit of an outlier. I’d expect him to get back to his regular target share and you just have to hope he scores.
Defense
DraftKings
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. JAX | $2,600
If you haven’t noticed already, I like this game a lot for the values that can be found, and the defense is no different. The Jags are losers of three consecutive and a lot of it has to do with their inability to protect the football, and now when you factor in that Trevor Lawrence is likely to miss this game, the Bucs have become the chalk defense.
Others to consider: Miami Dolphins vs. DAL $2,700
FanDuel
Washington Commanders @ NYJ | $3,800
The Bucs are probably the chalk defense on FanDuel but for the sake of writing up a different defense, I also like the Commanders. They get to play a Jets team that is mathematically eliminated from the playoffs and are likely starting Trevor Siemian.
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