This piece is part of our article program, featuring quality content from experts exclusively at FantasyPros. For more insight from Geoff, head over to GoingFor2.com.
After taking the Thanksgiving weekend off, I’m back to bring you the values for Week 13. It looks like a fun slate, and we already have the “super chalk” play with the Jonathan Taylor news as Zach Moss will likely be 80 percent owned in cash games and 30-plus percent in tournaments. Here are the rest of my values this week.
NFL DFS Value Picks to Target: Week 13
Quarterback
DraftKings
Russell Wilson (DEN) @ HOU $5,700
This piece is part of our article program, featuring quality content from experts exclusively at FantasyPros. For more insight from Geoff, head over to GoingFor2.com.
After taking the Thanksgiving weekend off, I’m back to bring you the values for Week 13. It looks like a fun slate, and we already have the “super chalk” play with the Jonathan Taylor news as Zach Moss will likely be 80 percent owned in cash games and 30-plus percent in tournaments. Here are the rest of my values this week.
NFL DFS Value Picks to Target: Week 13
Quarterback
DraftKings
Russell Wilson (DEN) @ HOU $5,700
Wilson has been solid over his last four games, averaging at least 17 points. This week he gets the Texans’ defense that ranks 26th in pass defense DVOA this season. Wilson is likely the “cash game” quarterback and should be one of the higher-owned QBs overall.
Other to consider: Brock Purdy (SF) $6,100
FanDuel
Sam Howell (WAS) vs. MIA $7,500
This game will be a popular game to stack having the highest Vegas total at 49.5. The Dolphins’ pass defense has played better of late, but in a game in which the Dolphins are heavily favored, Howell is going to be forced to throw the ball a ton.
Others to consider: Russell Wilson (DEN) $7,400 | Brock Purdy (SF) $7,800
Running Back
DraftKings
Zack Moss (IND) @ TEN $4,600
It has been a while since we’ve been given a “free square” in DFS, but we get one this week on both DraftKings and FanDuel. The Jonathan Taylor news did not come out until well after the prices had been set, making Moss a no-brainer value. The Titans rank second in rush defense DVOA, so the matchup isn’t great, but the volume that Moss is going to see at a mere $4,600 is too good to pass up — don’t get cute and just play him.
Others to consider: Javonte Williams (DEN) $5,700 | Jaylen Warren (PIT) $5,400
FanDuel
Zack Moss (IND) @ TEN $5,600
It’s not often that a good play on DraftKngs is equally as good in FanDuel, but that’s exactly what we have here with Moss. As I mentioned above, you wish it was in a better matchup as the Titans rank second in rush defense DVOA, but his price with his expected volume is too good to pass up.
Others to consider: James Connor (ARI) $6,300 | Javonte Williams (DEN) $6,600
Wide Receiver
DraftKings
Greg Dortch (ARI) @ PIT $3,700
Dortch has 17 targets over the past two weeks – and you’ll be hard-pressed to find a player at $3,700 getting that type of volume. Michael Wilson is still listed as questionable and, as of Thursday, still isn’t practicing. If Wilson is out, “light the Dortch” this week.
Others to consider: Josh Downs (IND) $5,100 | Marvin Mims (DEN) $3,300
FanDuel
Josh Downs (IND) @ TEN $6,100
Downs had a career-high 13 targets this past week. Although he was only able to turn that into five scoreless catches for 43 yards, you love that volume. With Jonathan Taylor out for the next few weeks and a matchup with the 30th-ranked pass defense DVOA, the Colts will have to take to the air probably more than they would like, but that will benefit both Downs and Michael Pittman greatly.
Other to consider: Demario Douglas (NE) $6,200
Tight End
DraftKings
Juwan Johnson (NO) vs. DET $3,400
No Michael Thomas. Likely no Rashid Shaheed. And Chris Olave‘s status still in question. Johnson could step into a huge role in the passing game. Even if Olave plays, which it looks like it is more likely than not, Johnson might still be third in the pecking order behind Olave and Alvin Kamara, which for a tight end at $3,400, you take it.
FanDuel
David Njoku (CLE) @ LAR $5,600
Njoku has averaged nine targets over his past six games and the Rams give up the sixth-most points to tight ends. He hasn’t found the end zone over these last three games, but the Rams are tied with the Lions in touchdowns allowed per game to TEs on the season (per FTNfantasy).
Other to consider: Juwan Johnson (NO) $4,900
Defense
DraftKings
Denver Broncos @ HOU $2,700
DraftKings is still pricing the Broncos’ defense as if they are the same team that gave up 70 points to the Dolphins. They are not. Here are their past four games:
- 16 points vs. CLE
- 9 points vs. MIN
- 8 points @ BUF
- 17 points vs. KC
Those are some pretty good scores against some pretty decent teams, at $2,700 I like the Broncos this week.
FanDuel
LA Rams vs. CLE $3,700
It looks like the statue that is Joe Flacco will be the quarterback under center for the Browns. That’s all you need to know about why I like the Rams. Flacco is zero threat to run, hasn’t played in nearly a year, and the Rams’ defense has been getting pressure on the QB lately with 10 sacks over their last three games.
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